Sensitivity of feature-based analysis methods of storm tracks to the form of background field removal

For the tracking of extrema associated with weather systems to be applied to a broad range of fields it is necessary to remove a background field that represents the slowly varying, large spatial scales. The sensitivity of the tracking analysis to the form of background field removed is explored for the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks for three contrasting fields from an integration of the U. K. Met Office's (UKMO) Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadAM3). Several methods are explored for the removal of a background field from the simple subtraction of the climatology, to the more sophisticated removal of the planetary scales. Two temporal filters are also considered in the form of a 2-6-day Lanczos filter and a 20-day high-pass Fourier filter. The analysis indicates that the simple subtraction of the climatology tends to change the nature of the systems to the extent that there is a redistribution of the systems relative to the climatological background resulting in very similar statistical distributions for both positive and negative anomalies. The optimal planetary wave filter removes total wavenumbers less than or equal to a number in the range 5-7, resulting in distributions more easily related to particular types of weather system. For the temporal filters the 2-6-day bandpass filter is found to have a detrimental impact on the individual weather systems, resulting in the storm tracks having a weak waveguide type of behavior. The 20-day high-pass temporal filter is less aggressive than the 2-6-day filter and produces results falling between those of the climatological and 2-6-day filters.

The troposphere-to-stratosphere transition in kinetic energy spectra and nonlinear spectral fluxes as seen in ECMWF analyses

Global horizontal wavenumber kinetic energy spectra and spectral fluxes of rotational kinetic energy and enstrophy are computed for a range of vertical levels using a T799 ECMWF operational analysis. Above 250 hPa, the kinetic energy spectra exhibit a distinct break between steep and shallow spectral ranges, reminiscent of dual power-law spectra seen in aircraft data and high-resolution general circulation models. The break separates a large-scale ‘‘balanced’’ regime in which rotational flow strongly dominates divergent flow and a mesoscale ‘‘unbalanced’’ regime where divergent energy is comparable to or larger than rotational energy. Between 230 and 100 hPa, the spectral break shifts to larger scales (from n 5 60 to n 5 20, where n is spherical harmonic index) as the balanced component of the flow preferentially decays. The location of the break remains fairly stable throughout the stratosphere. The spectral break in the analysis occurs at somewhat larger scales than the break seen in aircraft data. Nonlinear spectral fluxes defined for the rotational component of the flow maximize between about 300 and 200 hPa. Large-scale turbulence thus centers on the extratropical tropopause region, within which there are two distinct mechanisms of upscale energy transfer: eddy–eddy interactions sourcing the transient energy peak in synoptic scales, and zonal mean–eddy interactions forcing the zonal flow. A well-defined downscale enstrophy flux is clearly evident at these altitudes. In the stratosphere, the transient energy peak moves to planetary scales and zonal mean–eddy interactions become dominant.

Dynamics of convectively driven banded jets in the laboratory

The banded organization of clouds and zonal winds in the atmospheres of the outer planets has long fascinated observers. Several recent studies in the theory and idealized modeling of geostrophic turbulence have suggested possible explanations for the emergence of such organized patterns, typically involving highly anisotropic exchanges of kinetic energy and vorticity within the dissipationless inertial ranges of turbulent flows dominated (at least at large scales) by ensembles of propagating Rossby waves. The results from an attempt to reproduce such conditions in the laboratory are presented here. Achievement of a distinct inertial range turns out to require an experiment on the largest feasible scale. Deep, rotating convection on small horizontal scales was induced by gently and continuously spraying dense, salty water onto the free surface of the 13-m-diameter cylindrical tank on the Coriolis platform in Grenoble, France. A “planetary vorticity gradient” or “β effect” was obtained by use of a conically sloping bottom and the whole tank rotated at angular speeds up to 0.15 rad s−1. Over a period of several hours, a highly barotropic, zonally banded large-scale flow pattern was seen to emerge with up to 5–6 narrow, alternating, zonally aligned jets across the tank, indicating the development of an anisotropic field of geostrophic turbulence. Using particle image velocimetry (PIV) techniques, zonal jets are shown to have arisen from nonlinear interactions between barotropic eddies on a scale comparable to either a Rhines or “frictional” wavelength, which scales roughly as (β/Urms)−1/2. This resulted in an anisotropic kinetic energy spectrum with a significantly steeper slope with wavenumber k for the zonal flow than for the nonzonal eddies, which largely follows the classical Kolmogorov k−5/3 inertial range. Potential vorticity fields show evidence of Rossby wave breaking and the presence of a “hyperstaircase” with radius, indicating instantaneous flows that are supercritical with respect to the Rayleigh–Kuo instability criterion and in a state of “barotropic adjustment.” The implications of these results are discussed in light of zonal jets observed in planetary atmospheres and, most recently, in the terrestrial oceans.

Jupiter's and Saturn's convectively driven banded jets in the laboratory

The banded patterns of cloud and wind are among the most striking features of the atmospheres of Jupiter and Saturn, but their dynamical origin remains poorly understood. Most approaches towards understanding zonation so far (also in the terrestrial oceans) have used highly idealized models to show that it might originate from dynamical anisotropy in a shallow turbulent fluid layer due to the planetary β-effect. Here we report the results of laboratory experiments, conducted on a 14-m diameter turntable, which quantitatively confirm that multiple zonal jets may indeed be generated and maintained by this mechanism in the presence of deep convection and a topographic β-effect. At the very small values of Ekman number (≤2 × 10−5) and large local Reynolds numbers (≥2000, based on jet scales) achieved, the kinetic energy spectra suggest the presence of both energy-cascading and enstrophy-cascading inertial ranges in addition to the zonation near twice the Rhines wave number.

Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tracing pre-eruptive magma degassing using (Pb-210/Ra-226) disequilibria in the volcanic deposits of the 1980-1986 eruption of Mount St. Helens

Disequilibria between Pb-210 and Ra-226 can be used to trace magma degassing, because the intermediate nuclides, particularly Rn-222, are volatile. Products of the 1980-1986 eruptions of Mount St. Helens have been analysed for (Pb-210/Ra-226). Both excesses and deficits of Pb-210 are encountered suggesting rapid gas transfer. The time scale of diffuse, non-eruptive gas escape prior to 1980 as documented by Pb-210 deficits is on the order of a decade using the model developed by Gauthier and Condomines (Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 172 (1999) 111-126) for a non-renewed magma chamber and efficient Rn removal. The time required to build-up Pb-210 excess is much shorter (months) as can be observed from steady increases of (Pb-210/Ra-226) with time during 1980-1982. The formation of Pb-210 excess requires both rapid gas transport through the magma and periodic blocking of gas escape routes. Superposed on this time trend is the natural variability of (Pb-210/Ra-226) in a single eruption caused by tapping magma from various depths. The two time scales of gas transport, to create both Pb-210 deficits and Pb-210 excesses, cannot be reconciled in a single event. Rather Pb-210 deficits are associated with pre-eruptive diffuse degassing, while Pb-210 excesses document the more vigorous degassing associated with eruption and recharge of the system. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying time scales of pedogenic calcrete formation using U-series disequilibria

Time scales of pedogenic calcrete development are quantified by subsampling carbonate from within a mature (stage V) pedogenic calcrete profile from southeast Spain and dating the material by U-series disequilibria. The location of the earliest and latest cements can be estimated by comparing previous studies of calcrete morphological development with micromorphological analysis of the study profile. Carbonate was sampled and dated from three locations within the profile: (1) below the lower surface of clasts within the hardpan (representing the earliest cement present-207 +/- 11 ka), (2) from the centre of cement filled pores within the hardpan (reflecting the final plugging of the calcrete hardpan-155 +/- 9 ka) and (3) from the laminar calcrete overlying the hardpan (representing the latest cement-112 +/- 15 ka). These results show that the hardpan took between 73 and 31 ka to form, whilst the mature stage V profile took between 121 and 69 ka to form. This is the first time that rates of mature calcrete development have been established by direct radiometric dating of the authigenic carbonate. The technique is appropriate for dating mature calcretes in dryland regions worldwide and offers the opportunity of increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal variability in rates of pedogenic calcrete development. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scales and voices in World Historical Archaeology

This paper briefly sets the scene for the articles that follow, introducing some key debates that have characterized the recent practice of historical archaeology. The definition of historical archaeology is explored according to parameters of chronology and methodology, drawing a distinction between New World traditions that define the subject as 'post-Columbian' and Old World approaches that establish broader connections with the 'documentary archaeology' of all literate societies. Current issues in European and American historical archaeology are highlighted, including the gradual breakdown of the medieval/post-medieval divide and the call for a global 'modern-world archaeology' to address the 'grand historical narratives' of the period, such as capitalism, economic improvement, and consumerism. The resistance to this global research agenda is explored with reference to archaeologies of diaspora and postcolonialism, which demand local perspectives to explore diversity and meaning. Finally, the innovative use of community archaeology and multi-vocality is introduced, with particular reference to the experimental narratives pursued by American historical archaeologists, in their new role as 'storytellers'.

Introduction: scales and voices in world historical archaeology

This paper briefly sets the scene for the articles that follow, introducing some key debates that have characterized the recent practice of historical archaeology. The definition of historical archaeology is explored according to parameters of chronology and methodology, drawing a distinction between New World traditions that define the subject as 'post-Columbian' and Old World approaches that establish broader connections with the 'documentary archaeology' of all literate societies. Current issues in European and American historical archaeology are highlighted, including the gradual breakdown of the medieval/post-medieval divide and the call for a global 'modern-world archaeology' to address the 'grand historical narratives' of the period, such as capitalism, economic improvement, and consumerism. The resistance to this global research agenda is explored with reference to archaeologies of diaspora and postcolonialism, which demand local perspectives to explore diversity and meaning. Finally, the innovative use of community archaeology and multi-vocality is introduced, with particular reference to the experimental narratives pursued by American historical archaeologists, in their new role as 'storytellers'.