The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Building integration photovoltaic module with reference to Ghana: using triple junction amorphous silicon

This paper assesses the potential for using building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) roof shingles made from triple-junction amorphous silicon (3a-Si) for electrification and as a roofing material in tropical countries, such as Accra, Ghana. A model roof was constructed using triple-junction amorphous (3a-Si) PV on one section and conventional roofing tiles on the other. The performance of the PV module and tiles were measured, over a range of ambient temperatures and solar irradiance. PVSyst (a computer design software) was used to determine the most appropriate angle of tilt. It was observed that 3a-Si performs well in conditions such as Accra, because it is insensitive to high temperatures. Building integration gives security benefits, and reduces construction costs and embodied energy, compared to freestanding PV systems. Again, it serves as a means of protection from salt spray from the oceans and works well even when shaded. However, compared to conventional roofing materials, 3a-Si would increase the indoor temperature by 1-2 °C depending on the surface area of the roof covered with the PV modules. The results presented in this research enhance the understanding of varying factors involved in the selection of an appropriate method of PV installation to offset the short falls of the conventional roofing material in Ghana.

Reduced-order modelling of a high-voltage oscillatory impulse generator

The design of high-voltage equipment encompasses the study of oscillatory surges caused by transients such as those produced by switching. By obtaining a model, the response of which reconstructs that observed in the actual system, simulation studies and critical tests can be carried out on the model rather than on the equipment itself. In this paper, methods for the construction of simplified models are described and it is shown how the use of a complex model does not necessarily result in superior response pattern reconstruction.

Multiple PID mapping using neural networks in a MIMO steam generator system

A neural network was used to map three PID operating regions for a two-input two-output steam generator system. The network was used in stand alone feedforward operation to control the whole operating range of the process, after being trained from the PID controllers corresponding to each control region. The network inputs are the plant error signals, their integral, their derivative and a 4-error delay train.

Can microgrids make a major contribution to UK energy supply?

Almost all the electricity currently produced in the UK is generated as part of a centralised power system designed around large fossil fuel or nuclear power stations. This power system is robust and reliable but the efficiency of power generation is low, resulting in large quantities of waste heat. The principal aim of this paper is to investigate an alternative concept: the energy production by small scale generators in close proximity to the energy users, integrated into microgrids. Microgrids—de-centralised electricity generation combined with on-site production of heat—bear the promise of substantial environmental benefits, brought about by a higher energy efficiency and by facilitating the integration of renewable sources such as photovoltaic arrays or wind turbines. By virtue of good match between generation and load, microgrids have a low impact on the electricity network, despite a potentially significant level of generation by intermittent energy sources. The paper discusses the technical and economic issues associated with this novel concept, giving an overview of the generator technologies, the current regulatory framework in the UK, and the barriers that have to be overcome if microgrids are to make a major contribution to the UK energy supply. The focus of this study is a microgrid of domestic users powered by small Combined Heat and Power generators and photovoltaics. Focusing on the energy balance between the generation and load, it is found that the optimum combination of the generators in the microgrid- consisting of around 1.4 kWp PV array per household and 45% household ownership of micro-CHP generators- will maintain energy balance on a yearly basis if supplemented by energy storage of 2.7 kWh per household. We find that there is no fundamental technological reason why microgrids cannot contribute an appreciable part of the UK energy demand. Indeed, an estimate of cost indicates that the microgrids considered in this study would supply electricity at a cost comparable with the present electricity supply if the current support mechanisms for photovoltaics were maintained. Combining photovoltaics and micro-CHP and a small battery requirement gives a microgrid that is independent of the national electricity network. In the short term, this has particular benefits for remote communities but more wide-ranging possibilities open up in the medium to long term. Microgrids could meet the need to replace current generation nuclear and coal fired power stations, greatly reducing the demand on the transmission and distribution network.

Photovoltaic and solar-assisted ground-source heat pump systems

This review investigates the performance of photovoltaic and solar-assisted ground-source heat pumps in which solar heat is transferred to the ground to improve the coefficient of performance. A number of studies indicate that, for systems with adequately sized ground heat exchangers, the effect on system efficiency is small: about 1% improvement if the heat source is photovoltaic, a 1–2% decline if the source is solar thermal. With possible exceptions for systems in which the ground heat exchanger is undersized, or natural recharge from ground water is insufficient, solar thermal energy is better used for domestic hot water than to recharge ground heat. This appears particularly true outside the heating season, as although much of the heat extracted from the ground can be replaced, it seems to have little effect on the coefficient of performance. Any savings in electrical consumption that do result from an improved coefficient can easily be outweighed by an inefficient control system for the circulation pumps.

Review of R&D progress and practical application of the solar photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technologies

In this paper, the global market potential of solar thermal, photovoltaic (PV) and combined photovoltaic/thermal (PV/T) technologies in current time and near future was discussed. The concept of the PV/T and the theory behind the PV/T operation were briefly introduced, and standards for evaluating technical, economic and environmental performance of the PV/T systems were addressed. A comprehensive literature review into R&D works and practical application of the PV/T technology was illustrated and the review results were critically analysed in terms of PV/T type and research methodology used. The major features, current status, research focuses and existing difficulties/barriers related to the various types of PV/T were identified. The research methods, including theoretical analyses and computer simulation, experimental and combined experimental/theoretical investigation, demonstration and feasibility study, as well as economic and environmental analyses, applied into the PV/T technology were individually discussed, and the achievement and problems remaining in each research method category were described. Finally, opportunities for further work to carry on PV/T study were identified. The review research indicated that air/water-based PV/T systems are the commonly used technologies but their thermal removal effectiveness is lower. Refrigerant/heat-pipe-based PV/Ts, although still in research/laboratory stage, could achieve much higher solar conversion efficiencies over the air/water-based systems. However, these systems were found a few technical challenges in practice which require further resolutions. The review research suggested that further works could be undertaken to (1) develop new feasible, economic and energy efficient PV/T systems; (2) optimise the structural/geometrical configurations of the existing PV/T systems; (3) study long term dynamic performance of the PV/T systems; (4) demonstrate the PV/T systems in real buildings and conduct the feasibility study; and (5) carry on advanced economic and environmental analyses. This review research helps finding the questions remaining in PV/T technology, identify new research topics/directions to further improve the performance of the PV/T, remove the barriers in PV/T practical application, establish the standards/regulations related to PV/T design and installation, and promote its market penetration throughout the world.

Simulations of a photovoltaic-thermal ground source heat pump system

A ground source heat pump assisted by an array of photovoltaic (PV)-thermal modules was studied in this work. Extracting heat from an array of PV modules should improve the performance of both the PV cells and the heat pump. A series of computer simulations compare the performance of a ground source heat pump with a short ground circuit, used to provide space heating and domestic hot water at a house in southern England. The results indicate that extracting heat from an array of PV-thermal modules would improve the performance of a ground source heat pump with an undersized ground loop. Nevertheless, open air thermal collectors could be more effective, especially during winter. In one model more electricity was saved in ohmic heating than was generated by cooling the PV cells. Cooling the PV modules was found to increase their electrical output up to 4%, but much of the extra electricity was consumed by the cooling pumps.

Perspectives on the specification of Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) technology in construction projects

Innovative, low carbon technologies are already available for use in the construction of buildings, but the impact of their specification on construction projects is unclear. This exploratory research identifies issues which arise following the specification of BIPV in non-residential construction projects. Rather than treating the inclusion of a new technology as a technical problem, the research explores the issue from a socio-technical perspective to understand the accommodations which the project team makes and their effect on the building and the technology. The paper is part of a larger research project which uses a Social Construction of Technology Approach (SCOT) to explore the accommodations made to working practices and design when Building Integrated PhotoVoltaic (BIPV) technology is introduced. The approach explores how the requirements of the technology from different groups of actors (Relevant Social Groups or RSG's) give rise to problems and create solutions. As such it rejects the notion of a rational linear view of innovation diffusion; instead it suggests that the variety and composition of the Relevant Social Groups set the agenda for problem solving and solutions as the project progresses. The research explores the experiences of three people who have extensive histories of involvement with BIPV in construction, looks at how SCOT can inform our understanding of the issues involved and identifies themes and issues in the specification of BIPV on construction projects. A key finding concerns the alignment of inflection points at which interviewees have found themselves changing from one RSG to another as new problems and solutions are identified. The points at which they change RSG often occurred at points which mirror conventional construction categories (in terms of project specification, tender, design and construction).