Uncertainty assessment of a process-based integrated catchment model of phosphorus

Despite the many models developed for phosphorus concentration prediction at differing spatial and temporal scales, there has been little effort to quantify uncertainty in their predictions. Model prediction uncertainty quantification is desirable, for informed decision-making in river-systems management. An uncertainty analysis of the process-based model, integrated catchment model of phosphorus (INCA-P), within the generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework is presented. The framework is applied to the Lugg catchment (1,077 km2), a River Wye tributary, on the England–Wales border. Daily discharge and monthly phosphorus (total reactive and total), for a limited number of reaches, are used to initially assess uncertainty and sensitivity of 44 model parameters, identified as being most important for discharge and phosphorus predictions. This study demonstrates that parameter homogeneity assumptions (spatial heterogeneity is treated as land use type fractional areas) can achieve higher model fits, than a previous expertly calibrated parameter set. The model is capable of reproducing the hydrology, but a threshold Nash-Sutcliffe co-efficient of determination (E or R 2) of 0.3 is not achieved when simulating observed total phosphorus (TP) data in the upland reaches or total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in any reach. Despite this, the model reproduces the general dynamics of TP and TRP, in point source dominated lower reaches. This paper discusses why this application of INCA-P fails to find any parameter sets, which simultaneously describe all observed data acceptably. The discussion focuses on uncertainty of readily available input data, and whether such process-based models should be used when there isn’t sufficient data to support the many parameters.

Decomposition and phosphorus release from organic residues as affected by residue quality and added inorganic phosphorus

The combined use of organic residue and inorganic fertiliser-phosphorus (P) is appropriate in meeting both the short and long-term P requirement of crops. To assess the influence of added inorganic fertiliser-P on the processes of decomposition and P release from the residue and the relationships with quality, prunings of Gliricidia sepium, Leucaena leucocephela, Senna siamea, Acacia mangium and Paraserienthus falcataria were incubated without and with added inorganic fertiliser-P for 56 days. Soil was added only as inoculum. Decomposition rate and amounts of acid extractable-P (P release) were in the same order: G. sepium > S. siamea > L. leucocepheta > P falcataria > A. mangium. Unlike the other residues, A. mangium released no P despite the loss of half its mass during the 8 weeks of incubation. The residue P content correlated with P release. However, decomposition rate did not correlate with residue P content but with the lignin, polyphenol and cellulose content, and ratios to P. These ratios were negatively correlated with P release suggesting that lignin and polyphenol contents influence P release more when the residue-P content is low. Results suggest that rate of decomposition influences the release of P. The critical residue P content for P release was estimated to be 0.12% < P < 0.19%. Added P had no effect on decomposition and P release from the residues.

Utilisation by upland rice of plant residue- and fertiliser-phosphorus in two tropical acid soils

A dual isotopic technique was used to assess the effects of soil type, and residues of Gliricidia sepium, without and with added fertiliser-P on the utilisation of P. Upland rice (Oryza sativa) was grown for 70 days in two tropical acid soils of different P sorbing capacity and P status. Uniformly P-32-labelled soils were treated with inorganic fertiliser-P tagged with P-33, Gliricidia sepium residue applied at planting and 3 weeks earlier, and in a combination of fertiliser-P and Gliricidia applied at and 3 weeks before planting. There were significant responses of shoot and root weights, and total P uptake to Gliricidia- and/or fertiliser-P addition in the Ultisol (low P status) but not the Oxisol (high P status), suggesting that P in the latter soil was not yield limiting, despite the high standard P requirement. Similarly, incorporation of Gliricidia three weeks before planting further increased shoot weight only in the Ultisol. There were generally higher proportions, quantities and percent utilisations of the Gliricidia- P and fertiliser-P in the Ultisol than in the Oxisol. Gliricidia significantly increased the utilisation of fertiliser-P only in the Ultisol. However, early application of Gliricidia increased Gliricidia- P but not fertiliser-P utilisation in the Ultisol. Added fertiliser-P did not influence Gliricidia- P utilisation.

A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories

1. We compared the baseline phosphorus (P) concentrations inferred by diatom-P transfer functions and export coefficient models at 62 lakes in Great Britain to assess whether the techniques produce similar estimates of historical nutrient status. 2. There was a strong linear relationship between the two sets of values over the whole total P (TP) gradient (2-200 mu g TP L-1). However, a systematic bias was observed with the diatom model producing the higher values in 46 lakes (of which values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in 21). The export coefficient model gave the higher values in 10 lakes (of which the values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in only 4). 3. The difference between baseline and present-day TP concentrations was calculated to compare the extent of eutrophication inferred by the two sets of model output. There was generally poor agreement between the amounts of change estimated by the two approaches. The discrepancy in both the baseline values and the degree of change inferred by the models was greatest in the shallow and more productive sites. 4. Both approaches were applied to two lakes in the English Lake District where long-term P data exist, to assess how well the models track measured P concentrations since approximately 1850. There was good agreement between the pre-enrichment TP concentrations generated by the models. The diatom model paralleled the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive P (SRP) more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean TP in both lakes. The export coefficient model produced a closer fit to observed annual mean TP concentrations for both sites, tracking the changes in total external nutrient loading. 5. A combined approach is recommended, with the diatom model employed to reflect the nature and timing of the in-lake response to changes in nutrient loading, and the export coefficient model used to establish the origins and extent of changes in the external load and to assess potential reduction in loading under different management scenarios. 6. However, caution must be exercised when applying these models to shallow lakes where the export coefficient model TP estimate will not include internal P loading from lake sediments and where the diatom TP inferences may over-estimate TP concentrations because of the high abundance of benthic taxa, many of which are poor indicators of trophic state.

Physico-chemical controls on phosphorus cycling in two lowland streams. Part 1 - the water column

This paper investigates phosphorus (P) transport and transformation dynamics in two contrasting sub-catchments of the River Kennel, England. Samples were collected daily under baseflow and hourly under stormflow conditions using autosamplers for 2 years and analysed for a range of determinands (full P fractionation, suspended sediment (SS), cations, pH, alkalinity, temperature and oxygen). Concentrations of SRP, SUP, PP and SS were higher in the flashy River Enborne (means of 0.186, 0.071, 0.101 and 34 mg l(-1), respectively) than the groundwater-fed River Lambourn (0.079, 0.057, 0.028 and 9 mg l(-1), respectively). A seasonal trend in the daily P dataset was evident, with lower concentrations during intermediate flows and the spring (caused by a dilution effect and macrophyte uptake) than during baseflow conditions. However, in the hourly P dataset, highest concentrations were observed during storm events in the autumn and winter (reflecting higher scour with increased capacity to entrain particles). Storm events were more significant in contributing to the total P load in the River Enborne than the River Lambourn, especially during August to October, when dry antecedent conditions were observed in the catchment. Re-suspension of P-rich sediment that accumulated within the channel during summer low flows might account for these observations. It is suggested that a P-calcite co-precipitation mechanism was operating during summer in the River Lambourn, while adsorption by metal oxyhydroxide groups was an important mechanism controlling P fractionation in the River Enborne. The influence of flow conditions and channel storage/release mechanisms on P dynamics in these two lowland rivers is assessed. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Physico-chemical controls on phosphorus cycling in two lowland streams. Part 2 - The sediment phase

This article investigates the temporal and spatial controls on sediment-phosphorus (P) dynamics in two contrasting sub-catchments of the River Kennet, England. Suspended sediment (collected under representative flow conditions) and size-fractionated bedload (collected weekly for one year) from the Rivers Lambourn and Enborne was analysed for a range of physico-chemical determinands. Total P concentrations were highest in the most mobile fractions of sediment: suspended sediment, fine silt and clay and organic matter (mean concentrations of 1758, 1548 and 1440 mug P g(-1) dry sediment, respectively). Correlation analysis showed significant relationships between total P and total iron (n = 110), total manganese (n = 110), organic matter (n = 110) and specific surface area (n = 28) in the Lambourn (r(2) 0.71, 0.68, 0.62 and 0.52, respectively) and between total P and total iron (n = 110), total manganese (n = 110) and organic matter (n = 110) in the Enborne (r(2) 0.74, 0.85 and 0.68, respectively). These data highlight the importance of metal oxyhydroxide adsorption of P on fine particulates and organic matter. However, high total P concentrations in the granule gravel and coarse sand size fraction during the summer period (mean concentration 228 mug P g(-1) dry sediment) also highlight the role of calcite co-precipitation on P dynamics in the Lambourn. P to cation ratios in Lambourn sediment indicated that fine silt and clay and granule gravel and coarse sand size fractions were potential sources of P release to the water column during specific periods of the summer and autumn. In the Enborne, however, only the granule gravel and coarse sand size fraction had high ratios and a slow, constant release of P was observed. In addition, scanning electron microscopy work confirmed the association of P with calcite in the Lambourn and P with iron on clay particles in the Enborne. The study highlighted the importance of the chemical and physical properties of the sediment in influencing the mechanisms controlling P storage and release within river channels. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Response of organically managed grassland to available phosphorus and potassium in the soil and supplementary fertilization: field trials using grass-clover leys cut for silage

Effective use and recycling of manures together with occasional and judicious use of supplementary fertilizing materials forms the basis for management of phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) within organic farming systems. Replicated field trials were established at three sites across the UK to compare the supply of P and K to grass-clover swards cut for silage from a range of fertilizing materials, and to assess the usefulness of routine soil tests for P and K in organic farming systems. None of the fertilizing materials (farmyard manure, rock phosphate, Kali vinasse, volcanic tuff) significantly increased silage yields, nor was P offtake increased. However, farmyard manure and Kali vinasse proved effective sources of K to grass and clover in the short to medium term. Available P (measured as Olsen-P) showed no clear relationship with crop P offtake in these trials. In contrast, available K (measured by ammonium nitrate extraction) proved a useful measurement to predict K availability to crops and support K management decisions.

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool: a simple model of diffuse P loss from agricultural land to water

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool provides a catchment-scale estimation of diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to surface waters using the most appropriate indicators of P loss. The Tool provides a framework that may be applied across the UK to estimate P loss, which is sensitive not only to land use and management but also to environmental factors such as climate, soil type and topography. The model complexity incorporated in the P Indicators Tool has been adapted to the level of detail in the available data and the need to reflect the impact of changes in agriculture. Currently, the Tool runs on an annual timestep and at a 1 km(2) grid scale. We demonstrate that the P Indicators Tool works in principle and that its modular structure provides a means of accounting for P loss from one layer to the next, and ultimately to receiving waters. Trial runs of the Tool suggest that modelled P delivery to water approximates measured water quality records. The transparency of the structure of the P Indicators Tool means that identification of poorly performing coefficients is possible, and further refinements of the Tool can be made to ensure it is better calibrated and subsequently validated against empirical data, as it becomes available.

Zinc tolerance in wheat cultivars as affected by varying levels of phosphorus

The effect of zinc-phosphorus (Zn-P) interaction on Zn efficiency of six wheat cultivars was studied. The higher dry matter yields were observed when Zn was applied at 5 mu g g(-1) soil than with no Zn application. Phosphorus applications also increased dry matter yield up to the application of 25 mu g P g(-1) soil. The dry matter yield was significantly lower at the P rate of 250 mu g g(-1) soil. At the Zn-deficient level, the Zn-efficient cultivars had higher Zn concentrations in the shoots. Zinc concentrations in all cultivars increased when the P level in the soil was increased from 0 to 25 mu g P g(-1) soil except for the cv. Durati, in which Zn concentrations decreased with increases in P levels. However, when ZnxP interactions were investigated, it was observed that at a Zn-deficient level, Zn concentrations in the plant shoot decreased with each higher level of P, and more severe Zn deficiency was observed at P level of 250 mu g g(-1) soil.

Uncertainties in annual riverine phosphorus load estimation: Impact of load estimation methodology, sampling frequency, baseflow index and catchment population density

Models developed to identify the rates and origins of nutrient export from land to stream require an accurate assessment of the nutrient load present in the water body in order to calibrate model parameters and structure. These data are rarely available at a representative scale and in an appropriate chemical form except in research catchments. Observational errors associated with nutrient load estimates based on these data lead to a high degree of uncertainty in modelling and nutrient budgeting studies. Here, daily paired instantaneous P and flow data for 17 UK research catchments covering a total of 39 water years (WY) have been used to explore the nature and extent of the observational error associated with nutrient flux estimates based on partial fractions and infrequent sampling. The daily records were artificially decimated to create 7 stratified sampling records, 7 weekly records, and 30 monthly records from each WY and catchment. These were used to evaluate the impact of sampling frequency on load estimate uncertainty. The analysis underlines the high uncertainty of load estimates based on monthly data and individual P fractions rather than total P. Catchments with a high baseflow index and/or low population density were found to return a lower RMSE on load estimates when sampled infrequently than those with a tow baseflow index and high population density. Catchment size was not shown to be important, though a limitation of this study is that daily records may fail to capture the full range of P export behaviour in smaller catchments with flashy hydrographs, leading to an underestimate of uncertainty in Load estimates for such catchments. Further analysis of sub-daily records is needed to investigate this fully. Here, recommendations are given on load estimation methodologies for different catchment types sampled at different frequencies, and the ways in which this analysis can be used to identify observational error and uncertainty for model calibration and nutrient budgeting studies. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effects of manure and fertilizer on grain yield, soil carbon and phosphorus in a 13-year field trial in semi-arid Kenya

Long-term indicators of soil fertility were assessed by measuring grain yield, soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil Olsen phosphorous for a P-deficient soil. In one set of treatments, goat manure was applied annually for 13 years at 0, 5 and 10 t ha(-1), and intercrops of sorghum/cowpea, millet/green gram and maize/pigeonpea were grown. Yield depended on rainfall and trends with time were not identifiable. Manure caused an upward trend in SOC, but 10 t ha(-1) manure did not give significantly more SOC than 5 t ha(-1). Only 10 t ha(-1) manure increased Olsen P. Measurements of both SOC and Olsen P are recommended. In another set of treatments, manure was applied for four years; the residual effect lasted another seven to eight years when assessed by yield, SOC and Olsen P Treatment with mineral fertilizers provided the same rates of N and P as 5 t hat manure and yields from manure and fertilizer were similar. Fertilizer increased Olsen P but not SOC. Management systems with occasional manure application and intermediate fertilizer applications should be assessed. Inputs and offtakes of C, N and P were measured for three years. Approximately 16, 25 and 11% of C, N and P respectively were stabilized into soil organic matter from 5 t ha(-1) a(-1) manure. The majority of organic P was fixed as soil inorganic P.

Phosphorus dynamics and export in streams draining micro-catchments: Development of empirical models

Annual total phosphorus (TP) export data from 108 European micro-catchments were analyzed against descriptive catchment data on climate (runoff), soil types, catchment size, and land use. The best possible empirical model developed included runoff, proportion of agricultural land and catchment size as explanatory variables but with a low explanation of the variance in the dataset (R-2 = 0.37). Improved country specific empirical models could be developed in some cases. The best example was from Norway where an analysis of TP-export data from 12 predominantly agricultural micro-catchments revealed a relationship explaining 96% of the variance in TP-export. The explanatory variables were in this case soil-P status (P-AL), proportion of organic soil, and the export of suspended sediment. Another example is from Denmark where an empirical model was established for the basic annual average TP-export from 24 catchments with percentage sandy soils, percentage organic soils, runoff, and application of phosphorus in fertilizer and animal manure as explanatory variables (R-2 = 0.97).

Arsenate-induced phosphate release from soils and its effect on plant phosphorus

Adsorption of arsenic onto soil was investigated as a means of understanding arsenic-induced release of phosphate. In batch adsorption experiments As adsorption was accompanied by P desorption. At low As additions, the ratio As adsorbed: P desorbed remained constant. At higher As additions, P desorption reached a maximum while As adsorption continued to increase. The P desorption maximum coincided with an increase in pH. Barley plants were grown on soils spiked with arsenate (0-360 mg As kg(-1)) to investigate the effect on plant growth and P uptake. As arsenic concentration increased, above ground plant yield decreased and the plants showed symptoms typical of As toxicity and P deficiency. At low As additions to the soil, uptake of As and P by barley increased. At higher As additions P uptake decreased. It is argued that this was due to the change in As:P ratio in the soil solution. It is concluded that input of arsenic to the soil could mobilise phosphate. Crop yield is likely to be affected, either due to reduced phosphate availability at low arsenic additions or arsenic toxicity at higher additions.

Mitigation of diffuse phosphorus pollution during rewetting of fen peat soils: A trans-European case study

Intensive cultivation of fen peat soils (Eutric Histosols) for agricultural purposes, started in Europe about 250 years ago, resulting in decreased soil fertility, increased oxidation of peat and corresponding CO2-emissions to the atmosphere, nutrient transfer to aquatic ecosystems and losses in the total area of the former native wetlands. To prevent these negative environmental effects set-aside programs and rewetting measures were promoted in recent years. Literature results and practical experiences showed that large scale rewetting of intensively used agricultural Histosols may result in the mobilisation of phosphorus (P), its transport to adjacent surface waters and an accelerated eutrophication risk. The paper summarises results from an international European Community sponsored research project and demonstrates how results obtained at different scales and from different scientific disciplines were compiled to derive a strategy to carry out rewetting measures. A decision support system (DSS) for a hydrologically sensitive area in the Droemling catchment in north-eastern Germany was developed and is presented as a tool to regulate rewetting in order to control P release. It is demonstrated that additional laboratory experiments to identify essential processes of P release during rewetting and the site-specific management of the water table, the involvement of specific knowledge and experience of the stakeholders are necessary to develop an applicable DSS. The presented DSS is practically used to prevent freshwater resources from diffuse P pollution.