The dynamics of a polar low assessed using potential vorticity inversion

The dynamics of a polar low are examined using a piecewise potential vorticity (PV) inversion method. In previous studies of this and other polar lows, structural evolution has been described in terms of regions of anomalous PV. In this study the relative importance of different PV anomalies and the interactions between them have been quantified using PV diagnostics. The intensification of the polar low occurred in three stages (in contrast to previous studies of polar lows that have only identified two stages). The dynamical characteristics of stages one and two are consistent with the proposed type C cyclogenesis mechanism. A diabatically-generated lower-tropospheric PV anomaly dominated intensification after initial triggering by a positive upper-level PV anomaly. A phase tilt between the upper and lower levels was maintained through retardation of the positive upper-level anomaly by the effects of latent heat release. Stage three was a period of growth dominated by wind-induced surface heat exchange (WISHE), which contributed at least 18% to the amplitude of the mature surface polar low.

The method of least squares used to invert an orbit problem

Six parameters uniquely describe the orbit of a body about the Sun. Given these parameters, it is possible to make predictions of the body's position by solving its equation of motion. The parameters cannot be directly measured, so they must be inferred indirectly by an inversion method which uses measurements of other quantities in combination with the equation of motion. Inverse techniques are valuable tools in many applications where only noisy, incomplete, and indirect observations are available for estimating parameter values. The methodology of the approach is introduced and the Kepler problem is used as a real-world example. (C) 2003 American Association of Physics Teachers.

Combined CloudSat-CALIPSO-MODIS retrievals of the properties of ice clouds

In this paper, data from spaceborne radar, lidar and infrared radiometers on the “A-Train” of satellites are combined in a variational algorithm to retrieve ice cloud properties. The method allows a seamless retrieval between regions where both radar and lidar are sensitive to the regions where one detects the cloud. We first implement a cloud phase identification method, including identification of supercooled water layers using the lidar signal and temperature to discriminate ice from liquid. We also include rigorous calculation of errors assigned in the variational scheme. We estimate the impact of the microphysical assumptions on the algorithm when radiances are not assimilated by evaluating the impact of the change in the area-diameter and the density-diameter relationships in the retrieval of cloud properties. We show that changes to these assumptions affect the radar-only and lidar-only retrieval more than the radar-lidar retrieval, although the lidar-only extinction retrieval is only weakly affected. We also show that making use of the molecular lidar signal beyond the cloud as a constraint on optical depth, when ice clouds are sufficiently thin to allow the lidar signal to penetrate them entirely, improves the retrieved extinction. When infrared radiances are available, they provide an extra constraint and allow the extinction-to-backscatter ratio to vary linearly with height instead of being constant, which improves the vertical distribution of retrieved cloud properties.

Production of milk foams by steam injection: the effects of steam pressure and nozzle design

Foam properties depend on the physico-chemical characteristics of the continuous phase, the method of production and process conditions employed; however the preparation of barista-style milk foams in coffee shops by injection of steam uses milk as its main ingredient which limits the control of foam properties by changing the biochemical characteristics of the continuous phase. Therefore, the control of process conditions and nozzle design are the only ways available to produce foams with diverse properties. Milk foams were produced employing different steam pressures (100-280 kPa gauge) and nozzle designs (ejector, plunging-jet and confined-jet nozzles). The foamability of milk, and the stability, bubble size and texture of the foams were investigated. Variations in steam pressure and nozzle design changed the hydrodynamic conditions during foam production, resulting in foams having a range of properties. Steam pressure influenced foam characteristics, although the net effect depended on the nozzle design used. These results suggest that, in addition to the physicochemical determinants of milk, the foam properties can also be controlled by changing the steam pressure and nozzle design.

An optimized reverse-phase high performance liquid chromatographic method for evaluating percutaneous absorption of glucosamine hydrochloride

A relatively simple, selective, precise and accurate high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method based on a reaction of phenylisothiocyanate (PITC) with glucosamine (GL) in alkaline media was developed and validated to determine glucosamine hydrochloride permeating through human skin in vitro. It is usually problematic to develop an accurate assay for chemicals traversing skin because the excellent barrier properties of the tissue ensure that only low amounts of the material pass through the membrane and skin components may leach out of the tissue to interfere with the analysis. In addition, in the case of glucosamine hydrochloride, chemical instability adds further complexity to assay development. The assay, utilising the PITC-GL reaction was refined by optimizing the reaction temperature, reaction time and PITC concentration. The reaction produces a phenylthiocarbarnyl-glucosamine (PTC-GL) adduct which was separated on a reverse-phase (RP) column packed with 5 mu m ODS (C-18) Hypersil particles using a diode array detector (DAD) at 245 nm. The mobile phase was methanol-water-glacial acetic acid (10:89.96:0.04 v/v/v, pH 3.5) delivered to the column at 1 ml min(-1) and the column temperature was maintained at 30 degrees C Using a saturated aqueous solution of glucosamine hydrochloride, in vitro permeation studies were performed at 32 +/- 1 degrees C over 48 h using human epidermal membranes prepared by a heat separation method and mounted in Franz-type diffusion cells with a diffusional area 2.15 +/- 0.1 cm(2). The optimum derivatisation reaction conditions for reaction temperature, reaction time and PITC concentration were found to be 80 degrees C, 30 min and 1 % v/v, respectively. PTC-Gal and GL adducts eluted at 8.9 and 9.7 min, respectively. The detector response was found to be linear in the concentration range 0-1000 mu g ml(-1). The assay was robust with intra- and inter-day precisions (described as a percentage of relative standard deviation, %R.S.D.) < 12. Intra- and inter-day accuracy (as a percentage of the relative error, %RE) was <=-5.60 and <=-8.00, respectively. Using this assay, it was found that GL-HCI permeates through human skin with a flux 1.497 +/- 0.42 mu g cm(-2) h(-1), a permeability coefficient of 5.66 +/- 1.6 x 10(-6) cm h(-1) and with a lag time of 10.9 +/- 4.6 h. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A moving-mesh finite element method and its application to the numerical solution of phase-change problems

A distributed Lagrangian moving-mesh finite element method is applied to problems involving changes of phase. The algorithm uses a distributed conservation principle to determine nodal mesh velocities, which are then used to move the nodes. The nodal values are obtained from an ALE (Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian) equation, which represents a generalization of the original algorithm presented in Applied Numerical Mathematics, 54:450--469 (2005). Having described the details of the generalized algorithm it is validated on two test cases from the original paper and is then applied to one-phase and, for the first time, two-phase Stefan problems in one and two space dimensions, paying particular attention to the implementation of the interface boundary conditions. Results are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and the effectiveness of the method, including comparisons against analytical solutions where available.

A Newton method for pose refinement of 3D models

Different optimization methods can be employed to optimize a numerical estimate for the match between an instantiated object model and an image. In order to take advantage of gradient-based optimization methods, perspective inversion must be used in this context. We show that convergence can be very fast by extrapolating to maximum goodness-of-fit with Newton's method. This approach is related to methods which either maximize a similar goodness-of-fit measure without use of gradient information, or else minimize distances between projected model lines and image features. Newton's method combines the accuracy of the former approach with the speed of convergence of the latter.

The ASSET intercomparison of ozone analyses: method and first results

This paper aims to summarise the current performance of ozone data assimilation (DA) systems, to show where they can be improved, and to quantify their errors. It examines 11 sets of ozone analyses from 7 different DA systems. Two are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems based on general circulation models (GCMs); the other five use chemistry transport models (CTMs). The systems examined contain either linearised or detailed ozone chemistry, or no chemistry at all. In most analyses, MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) ozone data are assimilated; two assimilate SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography) observations instead. Analyses are compared to independent ozone observations covering the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the period July to November 2003. Biases and standard deviations are largest, and show the largest divergence between systems, in the troposphere, in the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere, in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere, and the Antarctic ozone hole region. However, in any particular area, apart from the troposphere, at least one system can be found that agrees well with independent data. In general, none of the differences can be linked to the assimilation technique (Kalman filter, three or four dimensional variational methods, direct inversion) or the system (CTM or NWP system). Where results diverge, a main explanation is the way ozone is modelled. It is important to correctly model transport at the tropical tropopause, to avoid positive biases and excessive structure in the ozone field. In the southern hemisphere ozone hole, only the analyses which correctly model heterogeneous ozone depletion are able to reproduce the near-complete ozone destruction over the pole. In the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere (above 5 hPa), some ozone photochemistry schemes caused large but easily remedied biases. The diurnal cycle of ozone in the mesosphere is not captured, except by the one system that includes a detailed treatment of mesospheric chemistry. These results indicate that when good observations are available for assimilation, the first priority for improving ozone DA systems is to improve the models. The analyses benefit strongly from the good quality of the MIPAS ozone observations. Using the analyses as a transfer standard, it is seen that MIPAS is similar to 5% higher than HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) in the mid and upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above 30 hPa), and of order 10% higher than ozonesonde and HALOE in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa to 30 hPa). Analyses based on SCIAMACHY total column are almost as good as the MIPAS analyses; analyses based on SCIAMACHY limb profiles are worse in some areas, due to problems in the SCIAMACHY retrievals.

Development of a capillary electrophoresis method for the simultaneous analysis of artificial sweeteners, preservatives and colours in soft drinks

A rapid capillary electrophoresis method was developed simultaneously to determine artificial sweeteners, preservatives and colours used as additives in carbonated soft drinks. Resolution between all additives occurring together in soft drinks was successfully achieved within a 15-min run-time by employing the micellar electrokinetic chromatography mode with a 20 mM carbonate buffer at pH 9.5 as the aqueous phase and 62 mM sodium dodecyl sulfate as the micellar phase. By using a diode-array detector to monitor the UV-visible range (190-600 nm), the identity of sample components, suggested by migration time, could be confirmed by spectral matching relative to standards.

Estimating the benefits of farm animal welfare legislation using the contingent valuation method

This paper presents the method and findings of a contingent valuation (CV) study that aimed to elicit United Kingdom citizens' willingness to pay to support legislation to phase out the use of battery cages for egg production in the European Union (EU). The method takes account of various biases associated with the CV technique, including 'warm glow', 'part-whole' and sample response biases. Estimated mean willingness to pay to support the legislation is used to estimate the annual benefit of the legislation to UK citizens. This is compared with the estimated annual costs of the legislation over a 12-year period, which allows for readjustment by the UK egg industry. The analysis shows that the estimated benefits of the legislation outweigh the costs. The study demonstrates that CV is a potentially useful technique for assessing the likely benefits associated with proposed legislation. However, estimates of CV studies must be treated with caution. It is important that they are derived from carefully designed surveys and that the willingness to pay estimation method allows for various biases. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision-theoretic designs for phase II clinical trials allowing for competing studies

This article describes an approach to optimal design of phase II clinical trials using Bayesian decision theory. The method proposed extends that suggested by Stallard (1998, Biometrics54, 279–294) in which designs were obtained to maximize a gain function including the cost of drug development and the benefit from a successful therapy. Here, the approach is extended by the consideration of other potential therapies, the development of which is competing for the same limited resources. The resulting optimal designs are shown to have frequentist properties much more similar to those traditionally used in phase II trials.

An adaptive group sequential design for phase II/III clinical trials that select a single treatment from several

There is increasing interest in combining Phases II and III of clinical development into a single trial in which one of a small number of competing experimental treatments is ultimately selected and where a valid comparison is made between this treatment and the control treatment. Such a trial usually proceeds in stages, with the least promising experimental treatments dropped as soon as possible. In this paper we present a highly flexible design that uses adaptive group sequential methodology to monitor an order statistic. By using this approach, it is possible to design a trial which can have any number of stages, begins with any number of experimental treatments, and permits any number of these to continue at any stage. The test statistic used is based upon efficient scores, so the method can be easily applied to binary, ordinal, failure time, or normally distributed outcomes. The method is illustrated with an example, and simulations are conducted to investigate its type I error rate and power under a range of scenarios.

Erythropoietin mimics the acute phase response in critical illness

Background: In a prospective observational study, we examined the temporal relationships between serum erythropoietin (EPO) levels, haemoglobin concentration and the inflammatory response in critically ill patients with and without acute renal failure (ARF). Patients and method Twenty-five critically ill patients, from general and cardiac intensive care units (ICUs) in a university hospital, were studied. Eight had ARF and 17 had normal or mildly impaired renal function. The comparator group included 82 nonhospitalized patients with normal renal function and varying haemoglobin concentrations. In the patients, levels of haemoglobin, serum EPO, C-reactive protein, IL-1β, IL-6, serum iron, ferritin, vitamin B12 and folate were measured, and Coombs test was performed from ICU admission until discharge or death. Concurrent EPO and haemoglobin levels were measured in the comparator group. Results: EPO levels were initially high in patients with ARF, falling to normal or low levels by day 3. Thereafter, almost all ICU patients demonstrated normal or low EPO levels despite progressive anaemia. IL-6 exhibited a similar initial pattern, but levels remained elevated during the chronic phase of critical illness. IL-1β was undetectable. Critically ill patients could not be distinguished from nonhospitalized anaemic patients on the basis of EPO levels. Conclusion: EPO levels are markedly elevated in the initial phase of critical illness with ARF. In the chronic phase of critical illness, EPO levels are the same for patients with and those without ARF, and cannot be distinguished from noncritically ill patients with varying haemoglobin concentrations. Exogenous EPO therapy is unlikely to be effective in the first few days of critical illness.