Evaluation of the use of radiosonde humidity data to predict the occurrence of persistent contrails

Regular visual observations of persistent contrails over Reading, UK, have been used to evaluate radiosonde measurements of temperature and humidity defining cold ice-supersaturated atmospheric regions which are assumed to be a necessary condition for persistent condensation trails (contrails) to form. Results show a good correlation between observations and predictions using data from Larkhill, 63 km from Reading. A statistical analysis of this result and the forecasts using data from four additional UK radiosonde stations are presented. The horizontal extent of supersaturated layers could be inferred from this to be several hundred kilometres. The necessity of bias corrections to radiosonde humidity measurements is discussed and an analysis of measured ice-supersaturated atmospheric layers in the troposphere is presented. It is found that ice supersaturation is more likely to occur in winter than in summer, with frequencies of 17.3% and 9.4%, respectively, which is mostly due to the layers being thicker in winter than in summer. The most probable height for them to occur is about 10 km.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

A case study of the radiative forcing of persistent contrails evolving into contrail-induced cirrus

The radiative forcing due to a distinct pattern of persistent contrails that form into contrail-induced cirrus near and over the UK is investigated in detail for a single case study during March 2009. The development of the contrail-induced cirrus is tracked using a number of high-resolution polar orbiting and lower-resolution geostationary satellite instruments and is found to persist for a period of around 18 h, and at its peak, it covers over 50,000 km2. The shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative forcing of the contrail-induced cirrus is estimated using a combination of geostationary satellite instruments, numerical weather prediction models, and surface observation sites. As expected, the net radiative effect is a relatively small residual of the much stronger but opposing SW and LW effects, locally totaling around 10 W m−2 during daylight hours and 30 W m−2 during nighttime. A simple estimate indicates that this single localized event may have generated a global-mean radiative forcing of around 7% of recent estimates of the persistent contrail radiative forcing due to the entire global aircraft fleet on a diurnally averaged basis. A single aircraft operating in conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation appears to exert a contrail-induced radiative forcing some 5000 times greater (in W m−2 km−1) than recent estimates of the average persistent contrail radiative forcing from the entire civil aviation fleet. This study emphasizes the need to establish whether similar events are common or highly unusual for a confident assessment of the total climate effect of aviation to be made.

Validating ECMWF forecasts for the occurrence of ice supersaturation using visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements over England

One of the largest uncertainties in quantifying the impact of aviation on climate concerns the formation and spreading of persistent contrails. The inclusion of a cloud scheme that allows for ice supersaturation into the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can be a useful tool to help reduce these uncertainties. This study evaluates the quality of the ECMWF forecasts with respect to ice super saturation in the upper troposphere by comparing them to visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements of ice supersaturation over England. The performance of 1- to 3-day forecasts is compared including also the vertical accuracy of the supersaturation forecasts. It is found that the operational forecasts from the ECMWF are able to predict cold ice supersaturated regions very well. For the best cases Peirce skill scores of 0.7 are obtained, with hit rates at times exceeding 80% and false-alarm rates below 20%. Results are very similar for comparisons with visual observations and radiosonde measurements, the latter providing the better statistical significance.

Systemic and persistent effect of neem (Azadirachta indica) formulations against root-knot nematodes, Meloidogyne javanica and their storage life

Neem leaves, neem cake (a by-product left after the extraction of oil from neem seed) and a commercially refined product aza (azadirachtin) extracted from seed were evaluated. Aqueous extracts of crude neem formulations used as a seedling dip treatment significantly reduced the number of females and egg masses in roots whereas the refined one did not. A split-root technique was used to demonstrate the translocation of active compounds within a plant and their subsequent effect on the development of nematodes. When applied to the root portion all formulations significantly reduced the number of egg masses and eggs per egg mass. Whereas on the untreated root portion, neem cake at 3% w/w and aza at 0.1% w/w significantly reduced the number of egg masses as compared with neem leaves at 3% w/w, aza at 0.05% and control. All the neern formulations significantly reduced the number of eggs per egg mass on' the untreated root portion. The effect of neem leaves and cake on the development of root-knot nematodes was tested at 2, 4, 6, 8, and 16 weeks after their application to soil. Even after 16 weeks all the treatments significantly reduced the galling index and number of egg masses but their effectiveness declined over time. After storing neem leaves, cake and aza for 8 months under ambient conditions the efficacy of neem leaves and aza, against root-knot nematodes, remained stable whereas that of cake declined. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms of G protein activation via the D-2 dopamine receptor: evidence for persistent receptor/G protein interaction after agonist stimulation

Background and purpose: The aim of this report is to study mechanisms of G protein activation by agonists. Experimental approach: The association and dissociation of guanosine 5'-O-(3-[S-35] thio) triphosphate ([S-35] GTP gamma S) binding at G proteins in membranes of CHO cells stably transfected with the human dopamine D-2short receptor was studied in the presence of a range of agonists. Key results: Binding of [S-35] GTPgS was dissociable in the absence of agonist and dissociation was accelerated both in rate and extent by dopamine, an effect which was blocked by the dopamine D-2 receptor antagonist raclopride and by suramin, which inhibits receptor/G protein interaction. A range of agonists of varying efficacy increased the rate of dissociation of [S-35] GTPgS binding, with the more efficacious agonists resulting in faster dissociation. Agonists were able to dissociate about 70% of the pre-bound [S-35] GTPgS, leaving a component which may not be accessible to the agonist-bound receptor. The dissociable component of the [S-35] GTPgS binding was reduced with longer association times and increased [S-35] GTPgS concentrations. Conclusions and implications: These data are consistent with [S-35] GTPgS binding being initially to receptor-linked G proteins and then to G proteins which have separated from the agonist bound receptor. Under the conditions used typically for [S-35] GTPgS binding assays, therefore, much of the agonist-receptor complex remains in proximity to G proteins after they have been activated by agonist.

Persistent, symptomless, systemic, and seed-borne infection of lettuce by Botrytis cinerea

Experiments are presented which show that Botrytis cinerea, the cause of gray mould disease, is often present in symptomless lettuce plants as a systemic, endophytic, infection which may arise from seed. The fungus was isolated on selective media from surface sterilized sections of roots, stem pieces and leaf discs from symptomless plants grown in a conventional glasshouse and in a spore-free air-flow provided by an isolation propagator. The presence of B. cinerea was confirmed by immuno-labelling the tissues with the Botrytis-specific monoclonal antibody BC-12.CA4. As plants grew, infection spread from the roots to stems and leaves. Surface sterilization of seeds reduced the number of infected symptomless plants. Artificial infection of seedlings with dry conidia increased the rate of infection in some experiments. Selected isolates were genetically finger-printed using microsatellite loci. This confirmed systemic spread of the inoculating isolates but showed that other isolates were also present and that single plants hosted multiple isolates. This shows that B. cinerea commonly grows in lettuce plants as an endophyte, as has already been shown for Primula. If true for other hosts, the endophytic phase may be as important a component of the species population as the aggressive necrotrophic phase.

Role for flagella but not intimin in the persistent infection of the gastrointestinal tissues of specific-pathogen-free chicks by Shiga toxin-negative Escherichia coli O157:H7

Shiga toxin (Stx)-positive Escherichia coli O157:117 readily colonize and persist in specific-pathogen-free (SPF) chicks, and we have shown that an Stx-negative E. coli O157:117 isolate (NCTC12900) readily colonizes SPF chicks for up to 169 days after oral inoculation at 1 day of age. However, the role of intimin in the persistent colonization of poultry remains unclear. Thus, to investigate the role of intimin and flagella, which is a known factor in the persistence of non-O157 E. coli in poultry, isogenic single- and double-intimin and aflagellar mutants were constructed in E. coli O157:117 isolate NCTC12900. These mutants were used to inoculate (10(5) CFU) 1-day-old SPF chicks. In general, significant attenuation of the aflagellate and intiminaflagellate mutants, but not the intimin mutant, was noted at similar time points between 22 and 92 days after inoculation. The intimin-deficient mutant was still being shed at the end of the experiment, which was 211 days after inoculation, 84 days more than the wild type. Shedding of the aflagellar and intimin-aflagellar mutants ceased 99 and 113 days after inoculation, respectively. Histological analysis of gastrointestinal tissues from inoculated birds gave no evidence for true microcolony formation by NCTC12900 or intimin and aflagellar mutants to epithelial cells. However, NCTC12900 mutant derivatives associated with the mucosa were observed as individual cells and/or as large aggregates. Association with luminal contents was also noted. These data suggest that O157 organisms do not require intimin for the persistent colonization of chickens, whereas flagella do play a role in this process.

Persistent reduced ecosystem respiration after insect disturbance in high elevation forests

Amid a worldwide increase in tree mortality, mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) have led to the death of billions of trees from Mexico to Alaska since 2000. This is predicted to have important carbon, water and energy balance feedbacks on the Earth system. Counter to current projections, we show that on a decadal scale, tree mortality causes no increase in ecosystem respiration from scales of several square metres up to an 84 km2 valley. Rather, we found comparable declines in both gross primary productivity and respiration suggesting little change in net flux, with a transitory recovery of respiration 6–7 years after mortality associated with increased incorporation of leaf litter C into soil organic matter, followed by further decline in years 8–10. The mechanism of the impact of tree mortality caused by these biotic disturbances is consistent with reduced input rather than increased output of carbon.

Synoptic-scale controls of persistent low temperature and icy weather over southern China in January 2008

In January 2008, central and southern China experienced persistent low temperatures, freezing rain, and snow. The large-scale conditions associated with the occurrence and development of these snowstorms are examined in order to identify the key synoptic controls leading to this event. Three main factors are identified: 1) the persistent blocking high over Siberia, which remained quasi-stationary around 65°E for 3 weeks, led to advection of dry and cold Siberian air down to central and southern China; 2) a strong persistent southwesterly flow associated with the western Pacific subtropical high led to enhanced moisture advection from the Bay of Bengal into central and southern China; and 3) the deep inversion layer in the lower troposphere associated with the extended snow cover over most of central and southern China. The combination of these three factors is likely responsible for the unusual severity of the event, and hence a long return period

The persistent challenge of encouraging public participation in the low-carbon transition

In order to address the growing urgency of issues around environmental and resource limits, there is a clear need to develop policies that promote changes in behavior and the ways in which society both views and consumes goods and services. However, there is an argument to suggest that, in order to develop effective policies in this area, we need to move beyond a narrow understanding of ‘how individuals behave’ in order to cultivate a more nuanced approach that encompasses behavioral influences in different societies, contexts and settings. In this opinion article we therefore draw on a range of our own recent comparative research studies in order to provide fresh insights into the continued problem of how to engage people individually and collectively in establishing more sustainable, low-carbon societies.