Output sustainability to exogenous and endogenous shocks: evidence from emerging economies

This paper studies the impact of exogenous and endogenous shocks (exogenous shock is used interchangeably with external shock; endogenous shock is used interchangeably with domestic shock) on output fluctuations in post-communist countries during the 2000s. The first part presents the analytical framework and formulates a research hypothesis. The second part presents vector autoregressive estimation and analysis model proposed by Pesaran (2004) and Pesaran and Smith (2006) that relates bank real lending, the cyclical component of output and spreads and accounts for cross-sectional dependence (CD) across the countries. Impulse response functions show that exogenous positive shock lead to a drop in output sustainability for 9 over 12 Central Eastern European countries and Russia, when the endogenous shock is mild and ambiguous. Moreover, the effect of exogenous shock is more significant during the crises. Variance decompositions show that exogenous shock in the aftermath of crisis had a substantial impact on economic activity of emerging economies.

Adaptive modelling, estimation and fusion from data: a neurofuzzy approach

In a world of almost permanent and rapidly increasing electronic data availability, techniques of filtering, compressing, and interpreting this data to transform it into valuable and easily comprehensible information is of utmost importance. One key topic in this area is the capability to deduce future system behavior from a given data input. This book brings together for the first time the complete theory of data-based neurofuzzy modelling and the linguistic attributes of fuzzy logic in a single cohesive mathematical framework. After introducing the basic theory of data-based modelling, new concepts including extended additive and multiplicative submodels are developed and their extensions to state estimation and data fusion are derived. All these algorithms are illustrated with benchmark and real-life examples to demonstrate their efficiency. Chris Harris and his group have carried out pioneering work which has tied together the fields of neural networks and linguistic rule-based algortihms. This book is aimed at researchers and scientists in time series modeling, empirical data modeling, knowledge discovery, data mining, and data fusion.

Real estate investment in global financial centers: risk, return and contagion

Global financial activity is heavily concentrated in a small number of world cities –international financial centers. The office markets in those cities receive significant flows of investment capital. The growing specialization of activity in IFCs and innovations in real estate investment vehicles lock developer, occupier, investment, and finance markets together, creating common patterns of movement and transmitting shocks from one office market throughout the system. International real estate investment strategies that fail to recognize this common source of volatility and risk may fail to deliver the diversification benefits sought.

Measuring the response of macroeconomic uncertainty to shocks

Recent research documents the importance of uncertainty in determining macroeconomic outcomes, but little is known about the transmission of uncertainty across such outcomes. This paper examines the response of uncertainty about inflation and output growth to shocks documenting statistically significant size and sign bias and spillover effects. Uncertainty about inflation is a determinant of output uncertainty, whereas higher growth volatility tends to raise inflation volatility. Both inflation and growth volatility respond asymmetrically to positive and negative shocks. Negative growth and inflation shocks lead to higher and more persistent uncertainty than shocks of equal magnitude but opposite sign.

The inflation hedging characteristics of US and UK investments: a multi-factor error correction approach

Historic analysis of the inflation hedging properties of stocks produced anomalous results, with equities often appearing to offer a perverse hedge against inflation. This has been attributed to the impact of real and monetary shocks to the economy, which influence both inflation and asset returns. It has been argued that real estate should provide a better hedge: however, empirical results have been mixed. This paper explores the relationship between commercial real estate returns (from both private and public markets) and economic, fiscal and monetary factors and inflation for US and UK markets. Comparative analysis of general equity and small capitalisation stock returns in both markets is carried out. Inflation is subdivided into expected and unexpected components using different estimation techniques. The analyses are undertaken using long-run error correction techniques. In the long-run, once real and monetary variables are included, asset returns are positively linked to anticipated inflation but not to inflation shocks. Adjustment processes are, however, gradual and not within period. Real estate returns, particularly direct market returns, exhibit characteristics that differ from equities.

Inheritance, access to resources and poverty in Serer families in Senegal

This research explores the relationship between inheritance, access to resources and the intergenerational transmission of poverty among the Serer ethnic group in rural and urban environments in Senegal. In many Sub-Saharan African countries, customary law excludes women from owning and inheriting assets, such as land and property. Yet, assets controlled by women often result in increased investments in the next generation's health, nutrition and schooling and reduce the intergenerational transmission of poverty. Qualitative research with 60 participants in Senegal reveals the important role that land, housing and financial assets may play in building resilience to household shocks and interrupting the intergenerational transmission of poverty. However, the protection afforded by these assets was often dependent on other factors, including human, social and environmental capital. The death of a spouse or parent had major emotional and material impacts on many Serer families. The inheritance and control of assets and resources was strongly differentiated among family members along lines of gender, age and generation. Younger widows and their children were particularly vulnerable to chronic poverty. Although inheritance disputes were rare, the research suggests they are more likely between co-wives in polygamous unions and their children, particularly in urban areas. In addition to experiencing economic and health-related shocks, many interviewees were exposed to a range of climate-related risks and environmental pressures which increased their vulnerability. Family members coped with these shocks and risks by diversifying livelihoods, migrating to urban areas and other regions for work, participating in women's co-operatives and associations and developing supportive social networks with extended family and community members. Policies and practices that may help to alleviate poverty, safeguard women's and young people's inheritance and build resilience to financial, health-related and environmental shocks and risks include: - Social protection measures targeted towards poor widows and orphaned children, such as social and cash transfers to pay for basic needs including food, healthcare and children's schooling. - Micro-finance initiatives and credit and savings schemes, alongside training and capacity-building targeted to women and young people to develop income-generation activities and skills. - Free legal advice, support and advocacy for women and young people to pursue inheritance claims through the legal system. - Raising awareness about women's and children's legal rights and working with government and community and religious leaders to tackle discriminatory inheritance practices and contradictions caused by legal pluralism. - Increasing women's control of land and access to inputs, enhancing their business, organisational, and leadership skills and promoting civic participation in local, regional and national decision-making processes. - Improving access to basic services in rural areas, particularly healthcare, building the quality of education and promoting girls' access to education - Enhancing agricultural production and providing more employment opportunities, apprenticeships and vocational training for young people, particularly in rural areas.

The Natural History of Slapton Ley Nature Reserve XVIII: nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment - an export coefficient modelling approach

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses from the catchment of Slapton Ley, a small coastal lake in SW England, were calculated using an adaptation of a model developed by Jorgensen (1980). A detailed survey of the catchment revealed that its land use is dominated by both permanent and temporary grassland (respectively 38 and 32% of its total area), and that the remainder is made up of the cultivation of cereals and field vegetables, and market gardening. Livestock numbers in the catchment constitute ca. 6600 head of cattle, 10,000 sheep, 590 pigs, 1700 poultry and 58 horses. The permanent human population of the area is ca. 2000, served by two small gravity-fed sewage treatment works (STWs). Inputs to, and losses from, farmland in the catchment were computed using Jorgensen’s model, and coefficients derived from the data of Cooke (1976), Gostick (1982), Rast and Lee (1983) and Vollenweider (1968). Allowing for outputs from STWs, the total annual external load of N and P upon Slapton Ley is 160 t (35 kg ha-1) a-1 N, and 4.8 t (1.05 kg ha-1) a-1 P. Accordingly to Vollenweider (1968, 1975), such loadings exceed OECD permissible level by a factor of ca. 50 in the case of N, and ca. 5 in that of P. In order to reduce nutrient loads, attention would need to be paid to both STW and agricultural sources.

Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles

This paper examines the degree of commonalities present in the cyclical behavior of the eight largest metropolitan housing markets in Australia. Using two techniques originally in the business cycle literature we consider the degree of synchronization present and secondly decompose the series’ into their permanent and cyclical components. Both empirical approaches reveal similar results. Sydney and Melbourne are closely related to each other and are relatively segmented from the smaller metropolitan areas. In contrast, there is substantial evidence of commonalities in the cyclical behavior of the remaining cities, especially those on the Eastern and Southern coasts of Australia.

Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles

This paper examines the degree of commonalities present in the cyclical behavior of the eight largest metropolitan housing markets in Australia. Using two techniques originally in the business cycle literature we consider the degree of synchronization present and secondly decompose the series’ into their permanent and cyclical components. Both empirical approaches reveal similar results. Sydney and Melbourne are closely related to each other and are relatively segmented from the smaller metropolitan areas. In contrast, there is substantial evidence of commonalities in the cyclical behavior of the remaining cities, especially those on the Eastern and Southern coasts of Australia.

Benchmarking 2D hydraulic models for urban flooding

This paper describes benchmark testing of six two-dimensional (2D) hydraulic models (DIVAST, DIVASTTVD, TUFLOW, JFLOW, TRENT and LISFLOOD-FP) in terms of their ability to simulate surface flows in a densely urbanised area. The models are applied to a 1·0 km × 0·4 km urban catchment within the city of Glasgow, Scotland, UK, and are used to simulate a flood event that occurred at this site on 30 July 2002. An identical numerical grid describing the underlying topography is constructed for each model, using a combination of airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) fused with digital map data, and used to run a benchmark simulation. Two numerical experiments were then conducted to test the response of each model to topographic error and uncertainty over friction parameterisation. While all the models tested produce plausible results, subtle differences between particular groups of codes give considerable insight into both the practice and science of urban hydraulic modelling. In particular, the results show that the terrain data available from modern LiDAR systems are sufficiently accurate and resolved for simulating urban flows, but such data need to be fused with digital map data of building topology and land use to gain maximum benefit from the information contained therein. When such terrain data are available, uncertainty in friction parameters becomes a more dominant factor than topographic error for typical problems. The simulations also show that flows in urban environments are characterised by numerous transitions to supercritical flow and numerical shocks. However, the effects of these are localised and they do not appear to affect overall wave propagation. In contrast, inertia terms are shown to be important in this particular case, but the specific characteristics of the test site may mean that this does not hold more generally.

Cone model-based SEP event calculations for applications to multipoint observations

The problem of modeling solar energetic particle (SEP) events is important to both space weather research and forecasting, and yet it has seen relatively little progress. Most important SEP events are associated with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that drive coronal and interplanetary shocks. These shocks can continuously produce accelerated particles from the ambient medium to well beyond 1 AU. This paper describes an effort to model real SEP events using a Center for Integrated Space weather Modeling (CISM) MHD solar wind simulation including a cone model of CMEs to initiate the related shocks. In addition to providing observation-inspired shock geometry and characteristics, this MHD simulation describes the time-dependent observer field line connections to the shock source. As a first approximation, we assume a shock jump-parameterized source strength and spectrum, and that scatter-free transport occurs outside of the shock source, thus emphasizing the role the shock evolution plays in determining the modeled SEP event profile. Three halo CME events on May 12, 1997, November 4, 1997 and December 13, 2006 are used to test the modeling approach. While challenges arise in the identification and characterization of the shocks in the MHD model results, this approach illustrates the importance to SEP event modeling of globally simulating the underlying heliospheric event. The results also suggest the potential utility of such a model for forcasting and for interpretation of separated multipoint measurements such as those expected from the STEREO mission.

Detection of unusual mutation within the VP1 region of different re-isolates of poliovirus Sabin vaccine

In the present study, a genomic analysis of full VP1 sequence region of 15 clinical re-isolates (14 healthy vaccinees and one bone marrow tumor patient) was conducted, aiming to the identification of mutations and to the assessment of their impact on virus fitness, providing also insights relevant with the natural evolution of Sabin strains. Clinical re-isolates were analyzed by RT-PCR, sequencing and computational analysis. Some re-isolates were characterized by an unusual mutational pattern in which non-synonymous mutations outnumbered the synonymous ones. Furthermore, the majority of amino-acid substitutions were located in the capsid exterior, specifically in N-Ags, near N-Ags and in the north rim of the canyon. Also mutations, which are well-known determinants of attenuation, were identified. The results of this study propose that some re-isolates are characterized by an evolutionary pattern in which non-synonymous mutations with a direct phenotypic impact on viral fitness are fixed in viral genomes, in spite of synonymous ones with no phenotypic impact on viral fitness. Results of the present retrospective characterization of Sabin clinical re-isolates, based on the full VP1 sequence, suggest that vaccine-derived viruses may make their way through narrow breaches and may evolve into transmissible pathogens even in adequately immunized populations. For this reason increased poliovirus laboratory surveillance should be permanent and full VP1 sequence analysis should be conducted even in isolates originating from healthy vaccinees.

High hydrostatic pressure resistance of Campylobacter jejuni after different sublethal stresses

Aims: To study the development of resistance responses in Campylobacter jejuni to High Hydrostatic Pressure (HHP) treatments after the exposure to different stressful conditions that may be encountered in food processing environments, such as acid pH, elevated temperatures and cold storage. Methods and Results: C. jejuni cells in exponential and stationary growth phase were exposed to different sublethal stresses (acid, heat and cold shocks) prior to evaluate the development of resistance responses to HHP. For exponential-phase cells, neither of the conditions tested increased nor decreased HHP resistance of C. jejuni. For stationary-phase cells, acid and heat adaptation sensitized C. jejuni cells to the subsequent pressure treatment. On the contrary, cold-adapted stationary-phase cells developed resistance to HHP. Conclusions: Whereas C. jejuni can be classified as a stress sensitive microorganism, our findings have demonstrated that it can develop resistance responses under different stressing conditions. The resistance of stationary phase C. jejuni to HHP was increased after cells were exposed to cold temperatures. Significance and Impact of the Study: The results of this study contribute to a better knowledge of the physiology of C. jejuni and its survival to food preservation agents. Results here presented may help in the design of combined processes for food preservation based on HHP technology.

Asymmetric adjustment in the City of London office market

Earlier estimates of the City of London office market are extended by considering a longer time series of data, covering two cycles, and by explicitly modeling of asymmetric space market responses to employment and supply shocks. A long run structural model linking real rental levels, office-based employment and the supply of office space is estimated and then rental adjustment processes are modeled using an error correction model framework. Rental adjustment is seen to be asymmetric, depending both on the direction of the supply and demand shocks and on the state of the space market at the time of the shock. Vacancy adjustment does not display asymmetries. There is also a supply adjustment equation. Two three-equation systems, one with symmetric rental adjustment and the other with asymmetric adjustment, are subjected to positive and negative shocks to employment. These illustrate differences in the two systems.

Provision of environmental output within a multi-output distance function approach

This paper redefines technical efficiency by incorporating provision of environmental goods as one of the outputs of the farm. The proportion of permanent and rough grassland to total agricultural land area is used as a proxy for the provision of environmental goods. Stochastic frontier analysis was conducted using a Bayesian procedure. The methodology is applied to panel data on 215 dairy farms in England and Wales. Results show that farm efficiency rankings change when provision of environmental outputs by farms is incorporated in the efficiency analysis, which may have important political implications.