Cross-hemispheric transport of Central African biomass burning pollutants: Implications for downwind ozone production

Pollutant plumes with enhanced concentrations of trace gases and aerosols were observed over the southern coast of West Africa during August 2006 as part of the AMMA wet season field campaign. Plumes were observed both in the mid and upper troposphere. In this study we examined the origin of these pollutant plumes, and their potential to photochemically produce ozone (O3) downwind over the Atlantic Ocean. Their possible contribution to the Atlantic O3 maximum is also discussed. Runs using the BOLAM mesoscale model including biomass burning carbon monoxide (CO) tracers were used to confirm an origin from central African biomass burning fires. The plumes measured in the mid troposphere (MT) had significantly higher pollutant concentrations over West Africa compared to the upper tropospheric (UT) plume. The mesoscale model reproduces these differences and the two different pathways for the plumes at different altitudes: transport to the north-east of the fire region, moist convective uplift and transport to West Africa for the upper tropospheric plume versus north-west transport over the Gulf of Guinea for the mid-tropospheric plume. Lower concentrations in the upper troposphere are mainly due to enhanced mixing during upward transport. Model simulations suggest that MT and UT plumes are 16 and 14 days old respectively when measured over West Africa. The ratio of tracer concentrations at 600 hPa and 250 hPa was estimated for 14–15 August in the region of the observed plumes and compares well with the same ratio derived from observed carbon dioxide (CO2) enhancements in both plumes. It is estimated that, for the period 1–15 August, the ratio of Biomass Burning (BB) tracer concentration transported in the UT to the ones transported in the MT is 0.6 over West Africa and the equatorial South Atlantic. Runs using a photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, initialized with the observations, were used to estimate in-situ net photochemical O3 production rates in these plumes during transport downwind of West Africa. The mid-troposphere plume spreads over altitude between 1.5 and 6 km over the Atlantic Ocean. Even though the plume was old, it was still very photochemically active (mean net O3 production rates over 10 days of 2.6 ppbv/day and up to 7 ppbv/day during the first days) above 3 km especially during the first few days of transport westward. It is also shown that the impact of high aerosol loads in the MT plume on photolysis rates serves to delay the peak in modelled O3 concentrations. These results suggest that a significant fraction of enhanced O3 in mid-troposphere over the Atlantic comes from BB sources during the summer monsoon period. According to simulated occurrence of such transport, BB may be the main source for O3 enhancement in the equatorial south Atlantic MT, at least in August 2006. The upper tropospheric plume was also still photochemically active, although mean net O3 production rates were slower (1.3 ppbv/day). The results suggest that, whilst the transport of BB pollutants to the UT is variable (as shown by the mesoscale model simulations), pollution from biomass burning can make an important contribution to additional photochemical production of O3 in addition to other important sources such as nitrogen oxides (NOx) from lightning.

Pre-pubertal measurements of the somatotrophic axis as predictors of milk production in Holstein-Friesian dairy cows

This study investigated possible relationships between measurements of the somatotrophic axis in pre-pubertal dairy calves and subsequent milk yields. Endogenous growth hormone (GH) release was measured through a fed and fasted period in fifty 6-month-old Holstein-Friesian heifers and they were then challenged with growth hormone-releasing factor (GRF) to assess their GH release pattern. Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I), insulin and glucose concentrations were measured in relation to time of feeding. Cows were subsequently monitored through their first three lactations to record peak and 305-day milk yields. In the first lactation, milk energy output for the first 120 days of lactation was also calculated. The mean 305-day milk yield increased from 7417 +/- 191 kg in the first lactation (n = 37) to 8749 +/- 252 kg in the third (n = 25). There were no significant relationships between any measures of GH secretion and peak or 305-day yield in any lactation. A highly significant positive relationship was established between the GH peak measured 10 min post-GRF challenge and 120-day milk energy values in the first lactation. This relationship was, however, only present in the subpopulation of 12 cows culled after one or two lactations and was absent in the 25 animals remaining for the third lactation. There were no significant relationships between pre-pubertal IGF-I and fed or fasted insulin or glucose concentrations and any subsequent measurement of yield. The usefulness of GH secretagogue challenges in calves as a predictive test for future milk production is thus limited but may have some bearing on nutrient partitioning and longevity. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ovarian follicle development in the laying hen is accompanied by divergent changes in inhibin A, inhibin B, activin A and follistatin production in granulosa and theca layers

To study the potential involvement of inhibin A (inhA), inhibin B (inhB), activin A (actA) and follistatin (FS) in the recruitment of follicles into the preovulatory hierarchy, growing follicles (ranging from 1 mm to the largest designated F1) and the three most recent postovulatory follicles (POFs) were recovered from laying hens (n=11). With the exception of <4 mm follicles and POFs, follicle walls were dissected into separate granulosa (G) and theca (T) layers before extraction. Contents of inhA, inhB, actA and FS in tissue extracts were assayed using specific two-site ELISAs and results are expressed per mg DNA. InhB content of both G and T followed a similar developmental pattern, although the content was >4-fold higher in G than in T at all stages. InhB content was very low in follicles <4 nun but increased - 50-fold (P<0.0001) to peak in 7-9 mm follicles, before falling steadily as follicles entered and moved up the follicular hierarchy (40-fold; 8 mm vs F2). In stark contrast, inhA remained very low in prehierarchical follicles (&LE; 9 mm) but then increased progressively as follicles moved up the preovulatory hierarchy to peak in F1 (&SIM; 100-fold increase; P<0.0001); In F1 >97% of inhA was confined to the G layer whereas in 5-9 mm follicles inhA was only. detected in the T layer. Both inhA and inhB contents of POFs were significantly reduced compared with F1. Follicular actA was mainly confined to the T layer although detectable levels were present in G from 9 nun; actA was low between 1 and 9 mm but increased sharply as follicles entered the preovulatory hierarchy (&SIM;6-fold higher in F4; P<0.0001); levels then fell &SIM;2-fold as the follicle progressed to F1. Like actA, FS predominated in the T although significant amounts were also present in the G of prehierarchical follicles (4-9 mm), in contrast to actA, which was absent from the G. The FS content of T rose &SIM;3-fold from 6 mm to a plateau which was sustained until F1. In contrast, the FS content of G was greatest in prehierarchical follicles and fell &SIM;4-fold in F4-F1 follicles. ActA and FS contents of POFs were reduced compared with F1. In vitro studies on follicle wall explants confirmed the striking divergence in the secretion of inhA and inhB during follicle development. These findings of marked stage-dependent differences in the expression of inhA, inhB, actA and FS proteins imply a significant functional role for these peptides in the recruitment and ordered progression of follicles within the avian ovary.

Global oil production: forecasts and methodologies

A range of forecasts of global oil production made between 1956 and the present day are listed. For the majority of these the methodology used to generate the forecast is described. The paper distinguishes between three types of forecast: group 1-quantitative analyses which predict that global oil production will reach a resource-limited peak in the near term, and certainly before the year 2020; group 2-forecasts that use quantitative methods, but which see no production peak within the forecast's time horizon (typically 2020 or 2030); group 3-nonquantitative analyses that rule out a resource-limited oil peak within the foreseeable future. The paper analyses these forecast types and suggests that group 1 forecasts are the most realistic.

Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable ('2P') oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close. Many analysts who rely only on proved ('1P') oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to 'turn resources into reserves'. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.