Decadal predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a coupled GCM: forecast skill and optimal perturbations using Linear Inverse Modelling

The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model (HadCM3) using a Linear Inverse Modelling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant non-normal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic Seas impact the MOC, and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe): the tropical North Atlantic experiments

The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv. Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

Does reactive surface area depend on grain size? Results from pH 3, 25 circle C far-from-equilibrium flow-through dissolution experiments on anorthite and biotite

Laboratory determined mineral weathering rates need to be normalised to allow their extrapolation to natural systems. The principle normalisation terms used in the literature are mass, and geometric- and BET specific surface area (SSA). The purpose of this study was to determine how dissolution rates normalised to these terms vary with grain size. Different size fractions of anorthite and biotite ranging from 180-150 to 20-10 mu m were dissolved in pH 3, HCl at 25 degrees C in flow through reactors under far from equilibrium conditions. Steady state dissolution rates after 5376 h (anorthite) and 4992 h (biotite) were calculated from Si concentrations and were normalised to initial- and final- mass and geometric-, geometric edge- (biotite), and BET SSA. For anorthite, rates normalised to initial- and final-BET SSA ranged from 0.33 to 2.77 X 10(-10) mol(feldspar) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric SSA ranged from 5.74 to 8.88 X 10(-10) mol(feldspar) m(-2) s(-1) and rates normalised to initial- and final-mass ranged from 0.11 to 1.65 mol(feldspar) g(-1) s(-1). For biotite, rates normalised to initial- and final-BET SSA ranged from 1.02 to 2.03 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric SSA ranged from 3.26 to 16.21 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1), rates normalised to initial- and final-geometric edge SSA ranged from 59.46 to 111.32 x 10(-12) mol(biotite) m(-2) s(-1) and rates normalised to initial- and final-mass ranged from 0.81 to 6.93 X 10(-12) mol(biotite) g(-1) s(-1). For all normalising terms rates varied significantly (p <= 0.05) with grain size. The normalising terms which gave least variation in dissolution rate between grain sizes for anorthite were initial BET SSA and initial- and final-geometric SSA. This is consistent with: (1) dissolution being dominated by the slower dissolving but area dominant non-etched surfaces of the grains and, (2) the walls of etch pits and other dissolution features being relatively unreactive. These steady state normalised dissolution rates are likely to be constant with time. Normalisation to final BET SSA did not give constant ratios across grain size due to a non-uniform distribution of dissolution features. After dissolution coarser grains had a greater density of dissolution features with BET-measurable but unreactive wall surface area than the finer grains. The normalising term which gave the least variation in dissolution rates between grain sizes for biotite was initial BET SSA. Initial- and final-geometric edge SSA and final BET SSA gave the next least varied rates. The basal surfaces dissolved sufficiently rapidly to influence bulk dissolution rate and prevent geometric edge SSA normalised dissolution rates showing the least variation. Simple modelling indicated that biotite grain edges dissolved 71-132 times faster than basal surfaces. In this experiment, initial BET SSA best integrated the different areas and reactivities of the edge and basal surfaces of biotite. Steady state dissolution rates are likely to vary with time as dissolution alters the ratio of edge to basal surface area. Therefore they would be more properly termed pseudo-steady state rates, only appearing constant because the time period over which they were measured (1512 h) was less than the time period over wich they would change significantly. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reactive crisis management in construction projects

Patterns of communication and behaviour emerge within a construction project in response to a construction crisis. This paper investigates, within a grounded theory framework, the nature of these patterns, the sociological and psychological forces which shape them and their relationship with crisis management efficiency. A grounded theory is presented in four parts. The first part conceives a construction crisis as a period of social instability, arising from conflicting interest groups, seeking to exercise power in the pursuit of social structures which suit their political and economic interests. The second part sees a construction crisis as a de-sensitizing phenomenon which results in a period of behavioural instability and conflict which is self-perpetuating. The third part cites social structure as an important influence upon construction crisis management efficiency, in determining the efficiency of information flow, and the level of uncertainty between those affected. The fourth part points to the in-built defence mechanisms which construction crises have and to three managerial ironies which make construction crisis management difficult.

Optimal inverter design for an induction machine using resonant frequency matching

The frequency responses of two 50 Hz and one 400 Hz induction machines have been measured experimentally over a frequency range of 1 kHz to 400 kHz. This study has shown that the stator impedances of the machines behave in a similar manner to a parallel resonant circuit, and hence have a resonant point at which the Input impedance of the machine is at a maximum. This maximum impedance point was found experimentally to be as low as 33 kHz, which is well within the switching frequency ranges of modern inverter drives. This paper investigates the possibility of exploiting the maximum impedance point of the machine, by taking it into consideration when designing an inverter, in order to minimize ripple currents due to the switching frequency. Minimization of the ripple currents would reduce torque pulsation and losses, increasing overall performance. A modified machine model was developed to take into account the resonant point, and this model was then simulated with an inverter to demonstrate the possible advantages of matching the inverter switching frequency to the resonant point. Finally, in order to experimentally verify the simulated results, a real inverter with a variable switching frequency was used to drive an induction machine. Experimental results are presented.

Reactive uptake coefficients for heterogeneous reaction of N2O5 with submicron aerosols of NaCl and natural sea salt

The kinetics of uptake of gaseous N2O5 on submicron aerosols containing NaCl and natural sea salt have been investigated in a flow reactor as a function of relative humidity (RH) in the range 30-80% at 295±2K and a total pressure of 1bar. The measured uptake coefficients, γ, were larger on the aerosols containing sea salt compared to those of pure NaCl, and in both cases increased with increasing RH. These observations are explained in terms of the variation in the size of the salt droplets, which leads to a limitation in the uptake rate into small particles. After correction for this effect the uptake coefficients are independent of relative humidity, and agree with those measured previously on larger droplets. A value of γ=0.025 is recommended for the reactive uptake coefficient for N2O5 on deliquesced sea salt droplets at 298K and RH>40%.

Improved and optimal dual circular 32-QAM for MB-OFDM

Quadrature Phase Shift Keying (QPSK) and Dual Carrier Modulation (DCM) are currently used as the modulation schemes for Multiband Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing (MB-OFDM) in the ECMA-368 defined Ultra-Wideband (UWB) radio platform. ECMA-368 has been chosen as the physical radio platform for many systems including Wireless USB (W-USB), Bluetooth 3.0 and Wireless HDMI; hence ECMA-368 is an important issue to consumer electronics and the users’ experience of these products. To enable the transport of high-rate USB, ECMA-368 offers up to 480 Mb/s instantaneous bit rate to the Medium Access Control (MAC) layer, but depending on radio channel conditions dropped packets unfortunately result in a lower throughput. This paper presents improvement on a high data rate modulation scheme that fits within the configuration of the current standard increasing system throughput by achieving 600 Mb/s (reliable to 3.2 meters) thus maintaining the high rate USB throughput even with a moderate level of dropped packets. The modulation system is termed improved and optimal Dual Circular 32-QAM (DC 32-QAM). The system performance for improved and optimal DC 32-QAM modulation is presented and compared with previous DC 32- QAM, 16-QAM and DCM.

Optimal protection of stabilised dry live bacteria from bile toxicity in oral dosage forms by bile acid adsorbent resins

We previously found that dried live bacteria of a vaccine strain can be temporarily sensitive to bile acids and suggested that Bile Adsorbing Resins (BAR) can be used in oral vaccine tablets to protect dried bacteria from intestinal bile. Here, we report a quantitative analysis of the ability of BAR to exclude the dye bromophenol blue from penetrating into matrix tablets and also sections of hard capsule shells. Based on this quantitative analysis, we made a fully optimised formulation, comprising 25% w/w of cholestyramine in Vcaps™ HPMC capsules. This gave effectively 100% protection of viability from 4% bile, with 4200-fold more live bacteria recovered from this formulation compared to unprotected dry bacteria. From the image analysis, we found that the filler material or compaction force used had no measurable effect on dye exclusion but did affect the rate of tablet hydration. Increasing the mass fraction of BAR gave more exclusion of dye up to 25% w/w, after which a plateau was reached and no further dye exclusion was seen. More effective dye exclusion was seen with smaller particle sizes (i.e. cholestyramine) and when the BAR was thoroughly dried and disaggregated. Similar results were found when imaging dye penetration into capsule sections or tablets. The predictions of the dye penetration study were tested using capsules filled with dried attenuated Salmonella vaccine plus different BAR types, and the expected protection from bile was found, validating the imaging study. Surprisingly, depending on the capsule shell material, some protection was given by the capsule alone without adding BAR, with Vcaps™ HPMC capsules providing up to 174-fold protection against 1% bile; faster releasing Vcaps Plus™ HPMC capsules and Coni Snap™ gelatin capsules gave less protection.

Terrestrial carnivores and human food production: impact and management

1. The production of food for human consumption has led to an historical and global conflict with terrestrial carnivores, which in turn has resulted in the extinction or extirpation of many species, although some have benefited. At present, carnivores affect food production by: (i) killing human producers; killing and/or eating (ii) fish/shellfish; (iii) game/wildfowl; (iv) livestock; (v) damaging crops; (vi) transmitting diseases; and (vii) through trophic interactions with other species in agricultural landscapes. Conversely, carnivores can themselves be a source of dietary protein (bushmeat). 2. Globally, the major areas of conflict are predation on livestock and the transmission of rabies. At a broad scale, livestock predation is a customary problem where predators are present and has been quantified for a broad range of carnivore species, although the veracity of these estimates is equivocal. Typically, but not always, losses are small relative to the numbers held, but can be a significant proportion of total livestock mortality. Losses experienced by producers are often highly variable, indicating that factors such as husbandry practices and predator behaviour may significantly affect the relative vulnerability of properties in the wider landscape. Within livestock herds, juvenile animals are particularly vulnerable. 3. Proactive and reactive culling are widely practised as a means to limit predation on livestock and game. Historic changes in species' distributions and abundance illustrate that culling programmes can be very effective at reducing predator density, although such substantive impacts are generally considered undesirable for native predators. However, despite their prevalence, the effectiveness, efficiency and the benefit:cost ratio of culling programmes have been poorly studied. 4. A wide range of non-lethal methods to limit predation has been studied. However, many of these have their practical limitations and are unlikely to be widely applicable. 5. Lethal approaches are likely to dominate the management of terrestrial carnivores for the foreseeable future, but animal welfare considerations are increasingly likely to influence management strategies. The adoption of non-lethal approaches will depend upon proof of their effectiveness and the willingness of stakeholders to implement them, and, in some cases, appropriate licensing and legislation. 6. Overall, it is apparent that we still understand relatively little about the importance of factors affecting predation on livestock and how to manage this conflict effectively. We consider the following avenues of research to be essential: (i) quantified assessments of the loss of viable livestock; (ii) landscape-level studies of contiguous properties to quantify losses associated with variables such as different husbandry practices; (iii) replicated experimental manipulations to identify the relative benefit of particular management practices, incorporating (iv) techniques to identify individual predators killing stock; and (v) economic analyses of different management approaches to quantify optimal production strategies.