Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

At the most recent session of the Conference of the Parties (COP19) in Warsaw (November 2013) the Warsaw international mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The mechanism aims at promoting the implementation of approaches to address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. Specifically, it aims to enhance understanding of risk management approaches to address loss and damage. Understanding risks associated with impacts due to highly predictable (slow onset) events like sea-level rise is relatively straightforward whereas assessing the effects of climate change on extreme weather events and their impacts is much more difficult. However, extreme weather events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable countries and communities in Africa. The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution is relevant as it provides scientific evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to changes in risk of extreme events. It thus provides the opportunity to explore scientifically-backed assessments of the human influence on such events. However, different ways of framing attribution questions can lead to very different assessments of change in risk. Here we explain the methods of, and implications of different approaches to attributing extreme weather events with a focus on Africa. Crucially, it demonstrates that defining the most appropriate attribution question to ask is not a science decision but needs to be made in dialogue with those stakeholders who will use the answers.

Context-aware visual exploration of molecular databases

Facilitating the visual exploration of scientific data has received increasing attention in the past decade or so. Especially in life science related application areas the amount of available data has grown at a breath taking pace. In this paper we describe an approach that allows for visual inspection of large collections of molecular compounds. In contrast to classical visualizations of such spaces we incorporate a specific focus of analysis, for example the outcome of a biological experiment such as high throughout screening results. The presented method uses this experimental data to select molecular fragments of the underlying molecules that have interesting properties and uses the resulting space to generate a two dimensional map based on a singular value decomposition algorithm and a self organizing map. Experiments on real datasets show that the resulting visual landscape groups molecules of similar chemical properties in densely connected regions.

Fast training of self organizing maps for the visual exploration of molecular compounds

Visual exploration of scientific data in life science area is a growing research field due to the large amount of available data. The Kohonen’s Self Organizing Map (SOM) is a widely used tool for visualization of multidimensional data. In this paper we present a fast learning algorithm for SOMs that uses a simulated annealing method to adapt the learning parameters. The algorithm has been adopted in a data analysis framework for the generation of similarity maps. Such maps provide an effective tool for the visual exploration of large and multi-dimensional input spaces. The approach has been applied to data generated during the High Throughput Screening of molecular compounds; the generated maps allow a visual exploration of molecules with similar topological properties. The experimental analysis on real world data from the National Cancer Institute shows the speed up of the proposed SOM training process in comparison to a traditional approach. The resulting visual landscape groups molecules with similar chemical properties in densely connected regions.

Personal status laws in Morocco and Tunisia: A comparative exploration of the possibilities for equality-enhancing reform in Bangladesh

This paper focuses on successful reform strategies invoked in parts of the Muslim world to address issues of gender inequality in the context of Islamic personal law. It traces the development of personal status laws in Tunisia and Morocco, exploring the models they offer in initiating equality-enhancing reforms in Bangladesh, where a secular and equality-based reform approach conflicts with Islamic-based conservatism. Recent landmark family law reforms in Morocco show the possibility of achieving ‘women-friendly’ reforms within an Islamic legal framework. Moreover, the Tunisian Personal Status Code, with its successive reforms, shows that a gender equality-based model of personal law can be successfully integrated into the Muslim way of life. This study examines the response of Muslim societies to equality-based reforms and differences in approach in initiating them. The paper maps these sometimes competing approaches, locating them within contemporary feminist debates related to gender equality in the East and West.

The influence of age and gender on food choice: a focus group exploration

With 25% of the UK population predicted to be obese by 2010, the costs to individuals and society are set to rise. Due to the extra economic and social pressures obesity causes, there is an increasing need to understand what motivates and prevents consumers from eating a healthy diet so as to be able to tailor policy interventions to specific groups in society. In so doing, it is important to explore potential variations in attitudes, motivation and behaviour as a function of age and gender. Both demographic factors are easily distinguished within society and a future intervention study which targets either, or both, of these would likely be both feasible and cost-effective for policy makers. As part of a preliminary study, six focus groups (total n = 43) were conducted at the University of Reading in November 2006, with groups segmented on the basis of age and gender. In order to gather more sensitive information, participants were also asked to fill out a short anonymous questionnaire before each focus group began, relating to healthy eating, alcohol consumption and body dissatisfaction. Making use of thematic content analysis, results suggested that most participants were aware of the type of foods that contribute to a healthy diet and the importance of achieving a healthy balance within a diet. However, they believed that healthy eating messages were often conflicting, and were uncertain about where to find information on the topic. Participants believed that the family has an important role in educating children about eating habits. Despite these similarities, there were a number of key differences among the groups in terms of their reasons for making food choices. Older participants (60+ years old) were more likely to make food choices based on health considerations. Participants between the ages of 18–30 were less concerned with this link, and instead focused on issues of food preparation and knowledge, prices and time. Younger female participants said they had more energy when they ate healthier diets; however, very often their food choices related to concern with their appearance. Older female participants also expressed this concern within the questionnaire, rather than in the group discussions. Overall, these results suggest that consumer motivations for healthy eating are diverse and that this must be considered by government, retailers and food producers.

Benchmarking or business opportunity: Using milk recording data to expose your clients' weaknesses

Routine milk recording data, often covering many years, are available for approximately half the dairy herds of England and Wales. In addition to milk yield and quality, these data include production events that can be used to derive objective Key Performance Indicators (KPI) describing a herd's fertility and production. Recent developments in information systems give veterinarians and other technical advisers access to these KPIs on-line. In addition to reviewing individual herd performance, advisers can establish local benchmark groups to demonstrate the relative performance of similar herds in the vicinity. The use of existing milk recording data places no additional demands on farmer's time or resources. These developments could also readily be exploited by universities to introduce veterinary undergraduates to the realities of commercial dairy production.

An exploration of the drivers to bio-security collective action among a sample of UK cattle and sheep farmers

At present, collective action regarding bio-security among UK cattle and sheep farmers is rare. Despite the occurrence of catastrophic livestock diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and foot and mouth disease (FMD), within recent decades, there are few national or local farmer-led animal health schemes. To explore the reasons for this apparent lack of interest, we utilised a socio-psychological approach to disaggregate the cognitive, emotive and contextual factors driving bio-security behaviour among cattle and sheep farmers in the United Kingdom (UK). In total, we interviewed 121 farmers in South-West England and Wales. The main analytical tools included a content, cluster and logistic regression analysis. The results of the content analysis illustrated apparent 'dissonance' between bio-security attitudes and behaviour.(1) Despite the heavy toll animal disease has taken on the agricultural economy, most study participants were dismissive of the many measures associated with bio-security. Justification for this lack of interest was largely framed in relation to the collective attribution or blame for the disease threats themselves. Indeed, epidemic diseases were largely related to external actors and agents. Reasons for outbreaks included inadequate border control, in tandem with ineffective policies and regulations. Conversely, endemic livestock disease was viewed as a problem for 'bad' farmers and not an issue for those individuals who managed their stock well. As such, there was little utility in forming groups to address what was largely perceived as an individual problem. Further, we found that attitudes toward bio-security did not appear to be influenced by any particular source of information per se. While strong negative attitudes were found toward specific sources of bio-security information, e.g. government leaflets, these appear to simply reflect widely held beliefs. In relation to actual bio-security behaviours, the logistic regression analysis revealed no significant difference between in-scheme and out of scheme farmers. We concluded that in order to support collective action with regard to bio-security, messages need to be reframed and delivered from a neutral source. Efforts to support group formation must also recognise and address the issues relating to perceptions of social connectedness among the communities involved. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What is poverty? A diachronic exploration of the discourse on poverty from the 1970s to the 2000s

Poverty is central to the concept of development. However, the relevance given to particular aspects of poverty has changed over the years and with it the manner in which poverty has been represented. The following paper explores how concepts of poverty within the 'poverty discourse' have altered over a 30-year period. A diachronic analysis is performed to explore changes in the topical and thematic composition of the definitions, in addition to the manner in which poverty has been 'framed'. The results illustrated that poverty was variably framed across the decades ranging from a 'neutral' fact to a highly contested state with little agreement over causes and consequences. Nevertheless, the relational analysis revealed the de-problematization of poverty over time. The finding has clear implications for development praxis: poverty needs to be 'attacked', but the root causes, at least from a discursive perspective, may be ignored.

'Anxious cognitions' in children: an exploration of associations and mediators

To investigate sources of influences connecting mothers' and their children's anxious cognitions, 65 children (aged 10 to 11 years) completed self-report measures of anxiety. Children and mothers responded to an ambiguous scenario questionnaire and measures of parenting style and life events. Mothers also reported expectations about their child's reaction to ambiguous situations. Mothers' and children's threat cognitions were significantly correlated (r = .31), and partially mediated by mothers' expectations about their child. Mothers' anticipated distress was associated with expectations for their child's distress, which was associated with the child's own anticipated distress. Parenting and life events were significantly associated with children's interpretative bias, but did not mediate the intergenerational association in interpretative bias. The results suggest influences on children's 'anxious cognitive style' and potential targets for preventing and reducing maladaptive cognitions in children.