Assessing the date of the global oil peak: the need to use 2P reserves

Combining geological knowledge with proved plus probable ('2P') oil discovery data indicates that over 60 countries are now past their resource-limited peak of conventional oil production. The data show that the global peak of conventional oil production is close. Many analysts who rely only on proved ('1P') oil reserves data draw a very different conclusion. But proved oil reserves contain no information about the true size of discoveries, being variously under-reported, over-reported and not reported. Reliance on 1P data has led to a number of misconceptions, including the notion that past oil forecasts were incorrect, that oil reserves grow very significantly due to technology gain, and that the global supply of oil is ensured provided sufficient investment is forthcoming to 'turn resources into reserves'. These misconceptions have been widely held, including within academia, governments, some oil companies, and organisations such as the IEA. In addition to conventional oil, the world contains large quantities of non-conventional oil. Most current detailed models show that past the conventional oil peak the non-conventional oils are unlikely to come on-stream fast enough to offset conventional's decline. To determine the extent of future oil supply constraints calculations are required to determine fundamental rate limits for the production of non-conventional oils, as well as oil from gas, coal and biomass, and of oil substitution. Such assessments will need to examine technological readiness and lead-times, as well as rate constraints on investment, pollution, and net-energy return. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global oil peaking: responding to the case for 'abundant supplies of oil'

This paper examines aspects of the case against global oil peaking, and in particular sets out to answer a viewpoint that the world can have abundant supplies of oil "for years to come". Arguments supporting the latter view include: past forecasts of oil shortage have proved incorrect, so current predictions should also be discounted; many modellers depend on Hubbert's analysis but this contained fundamental flaws; new oil supply will result from reserves growth and from the wider deployment of advanced extraction technology; and that the world contains large resources of unconventional oil that can come on-stream if the production of conventional oil declines. These arguments are examined in turn and shown to be incorrect, or to need setting into a broader context. The paper concludes therefore that such arguments cannot be used to rule out calculations that the resource-limited peak in the world's production of conventional oil will occur in the near term. Moreover, peaking of conventional oil is likely to impact the world's total availability of oil where the latter includes non-conventional oil and oil substitutes. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In vitro gas production and nitrogen degradability of tannin-containing tree fruits in response to incremental levels of polyethylene glycol

This study was designed to determine the response of in vitro fermentation parameters to incremental levels of polyethylene glycol (PEG) when tanniniferous tree fruits (Dichrostachys cinerea, Acacia erioloba, A. erubiscens, A. nilotica and Piliostigma thonningii) were fermented using the Reading Pressure Technique. The trivalent ytterbium precipitable phenolics content of fruit substrates ranged from 175 g/kg DM in A. erubiscens to 607 g/kg DM in A. nilotica, while the soluble condensed tannin content ranged from 0.09 AU550nm/40mg in A. erioloba to 0.52 AU550nm/40 mg in D. cinerea. The ADF was highest in P. thonningii fruits (402 g/kg DM) and lowest in A. nilotica fruits (165 g/kg DM). Increasing the level of PEG caused an exponential rise to a maximum (asymptotic) for cumulative gas production, rate of gas production and nitrogen degradability in all substrates except P. thonningii fruits. Dry matter degradability for fruits containing higher levels of soluble condensed tannins (D. cinerea and P. thonningii), showed little response to incremental levels of PEG after incubation for 24 h. The minimum levels of PEG required to maximize in vitro fermentation of tree fruits was found to be 200 mg PEG/g DM of sample for all tree species except A. erubiscens fruits, which required 100 mg PEG/g DM sample. The study provides evidence that PEG levels lower than 1 g/g DM sample can be used for in vitro tannin bioassays to reduce the cost of evaluating non-conventional tanniniferous feedstuffs used in developing countries in the tropics and subtopics. The use of in vitro nitrogen degradability in place of the favoured dry matter degradability improved the accuracy of PEG as a diagnostic tool for tannins in in vitro fermentation systems.

Does SMS text messaging help or harm adults’ knowledge of standard spelling?

The recent increase in short messaging system (SMS) text messaging, often using abbreviated, non-conventional ‘textisms’ (e.g. ‘2nite’), in school-aged children has raised fears of negative consequences of such technology for literacy. The current research used a paradigm developed by Dixon and Kaminska, who showed that exposure to phonetically plausible misspellings (e.g. ‘recieve’) negatively affected subsequent spelling performance, though this was true only with adults, not children. The current research extends this work to directly investigate the effects of exposure to textisms, misspellings and correctly spelledwords on adults’ spelling. Spelling of a set of key words was assessed both before and after an exposure phase where participants read the same key words, presented either as textisms (e.g. ‘2nite’), correctly spelled (e.g. ‘tonight’) or misspelled (e.g. 'tonite’)words. Analysis showed that scores decreased from pre- to post-test following exposure to misspellings, whereas performance improved following exposure to correctly spelled words and, interestingly, to textisms. Data suggest that exposure to textisms, unlike misspellings, had a positive effect on adults’ spelling. These findings are interpreted in light of other recent research suggesting a positive relationship between texting and some literacy measures in school-aged children.

Tetragonal and helical morphologies from polyferrocenylsilane block polyelectrolytes via ionic self-assembly

The use of ionic self-assembly, a facile noncovalent approach, to access non-conventional block copolymer morphologies, including tetragonal and helical structures, from a combination of polyferrocenylsilane diblock copolymer polyelectrolytes and AOT-based surfactants, is described.

The role of information on farmers' willingness to use recycled water for irrigation

In this paper are identified several factors which affect a potential user's willingness to use recycled water for agricultural irrigation. This study is based on the results of a survey carried out among farmers in the island of Crete, Greece. It was found that a higher level of income and education are positively correlated with a respondent's willingness to use recycled water. Income and education are also positively correlated with a potential user's sensitivity to information on the advantages of using non-conventional water resources. Overall, extra information on the advantages of recycled water has a statistically significant impact on reported degrees of willingness to use recycled water.

Students’ perception of the safety and value of a herbal vs. a conventional medicine for treating insomnia

University students suffer from variable sleep patterns including insomnia;[1] furthermore, the highest incidence of herbal use appears to be among college graduates.[2] Our objective was to test the perception of safety and value of herbal against conventional medicine for the treatment of insomnia in a non-pharmacy student population. We used an experimental design and bespoke vignettes that relayed the same effectiveness information to test our hypothesis that students would give higher ratings of safety and value to herbal product compared to conventional medicine. We tested another hypothesis that the addition of side-effect information would lower people’s perception of the safety and value of the herbal product to a greater extent than it would with the conventional medicine.

A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modulation of cytokine secretion by pentacyclic triterpenes from olive pomace oil in human mononuclear cells

Olive pomace oil, also known as "orujo" olive oil, is a blend of refined-pomace oil and virgin olive oil, fit for human consumption. Maslinic acid, oleanolic acid, erythrodiol, and uvaol are pentacyclic triterpenes, found in the non-glyceride fraction of orujo oil, which have previously been reported to have anti-inflammatory properties. In the present work, we investigated the effect of these minor components on pro-inflammatory cytokine production by human peripheral blood mononuclear cells in six different samples. Uvaol, erythrodiol, and oleanolic acid significantly decreased IL-1 beta and IL-6 production in a dose-dependent manner. All three compounds significantly reduced TNF-alpha production at 100 mu M; however, at 10 mu M, uvaol and oleanolic acid enhanced the generation of TNF-alpha. In contrast, maslinic acid did not significantly alter the concentration of those cytokines, with the exception of a slight inhibitory effect at 100 mu M. All four triterpenes inhibited production of I-309, at 50 mu M and 100 mu M. However, uvaol enhanced I-309 production at 10 mu M. The triterpenic dialcohols had a similar effect on MIG production. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that pentacyclic triterpenes in orujo oil exhibit pro- and anti-inflammatory properties depending on chemical structure and dose, and may be useful in modulating the immune response. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the regulation of spatial externalities: coexistence between GM and conventional crops in the EU and the 'newcomer principle'

Pollen-mediated gene flow is one of the main concerns associated with the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, ‘contamination’ by GM pollen would generate a revenue loss for growers of non-GM varieties. This paper analyses the problem of pollen-mediated gene flow as a particular type of production externality. The model, although simple, provides useful insights into coexistence policies. Following on from this and taking GM herbicide-tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus) as a model crop, a Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate data and then estimate the effect of several important policy variables (including width of buffer zones and spatial aggregation) on the magnitude of the externality associated with pollen-mediated gene flow.

Technologies for biological containment of GM and Non-GM crops

International Perspective The development of GM technology continues to expand into increasing numbers of crops and conferred traits. Inevitably, the focus remains on the major field crops of soybean, maize, cotton, oilseed rape and potato with introduced genes conferring herbicide tolerance and/or pest resistance. Although there are comparatively few GM crops that have been commercialised to date, GM versions of 172 plant species have been grown in field trials in 31 countries. European Crops with Containment Issues Of the 20 main crops in the EU there are four for which GM varieties are commercially available (cotton, maize for animal feed and forage, and oilseed rape). Fourteen have GM varieties in field trials (bread wheat, barley, durum wheat, sunflower, oats, potatoes, sugar beet, grapes, alfalfa, olives, field peas, clover, apples, rice) and two have GM varieties still in development (rye, triticale). Many of these crops have hybridisation potential with wild and weedy relatives in the European flora (bread wheat, barley, oilseed rape, durum wheat, oats, sugar beet and grapes), with escapes (sunflower); and all have potential to cross-pollinate fields non-GM crops. Several fodder crops, forestry trees, grasses and ornamentals have varieties in field trials and these too may hybridise with wild relatives in the European flora (alfalfa, clover, lupin, silver birch, sweet chestnut, Norway spruce, Scots pine, poplar, elm, Agrostis canina, A. stolonifera, Festuca arundinacea, Lolium perenne, L. multiflorum, statice and rose). All these crops will require containment strategies to be in place if it is deemed necessary to prevent transgene movement to wild relatives and non-GM crops. Current Containment Strategies A wide variety of GM containment strategies are currently under development, with a particular focus on crops expressing pharmaceutical products. Physical containment in greenhouses and growth rooms is suitable for some crops (tomatoes, lettuce) and for research purposes. Aquatic bioreactors of some non-crop species (algae, moss, and duckweed) expressing pharmaceutical products have been adopted by some biotechnology companies. There are obvious limitations of the scale of physical containment strategies, addressed in part by the development of large underground facilities in the US and Canada. The additional resources required to grow plants underground incurs high costs that in the long term may negate any advantage of GM for commercial productioNatural genetic containment has been adopted by some companies through the selection of either non-food/feed crops (algae, moss, duckweed) as bio-pharming platforms or organisms with no wild relatives present in the local flora (safflower in the Americas). The expression of pharmaceutical products in leafy crops (tobacco, alfalfa, lettuce, spinach) enables growth and harvesting prior to and in the absence of flowering. Transgenically controlled containment strategies range in their approach and degree of development. Plastid transformation is relatively well developed but is not suited to all traits or crops and does not offer complete containment. Male sterility is well developed across a range of plants but has limitations in its application for fruit/seed bearing crops. It has been adopted in some commercial lines of oilseed rape despite not preventing escape via seed. Conditional lethality can be used to prevent flowering or seed development following the application of a chemical inducer, but requires 100% induction of the trait and sufficient application of the inducer to all plants. Equally, inducible expression of the GM trait requires equally stringent application conditions. Such a method will contain the trait but will allow the escape of a non-functioning transgene. Seed lethality (‘terminator’ technology) is the only strategy at present that prevents transgene movement via seed, but due to public opinion against the concept it has never been trialled in the field and is no longer under commercial development. Methods to control flowering and fruit development such as apomixis and cleistogamy will prevent crop-to-wild and wild-to-crop pollination, but in nature both of these strategies are complex and leaky. None of the genes controlling these traits have as yet been identified or characterised and therefore have not been transgenically introduced into crop species. Neither of these strategies will prevent transgene escape via seed and any feral apomicts that form are arguably more likely to become invasives. Transgene mitigation reduces the fitness of initial hybrids and so prevents stable introgression of transgenes into wild populations. However, it does not prevent initial formation of hybrids or spread to non-GM crops. Such strategies could be detrimental to wild populations and have not yet been demonstrated in the field. Similarly, auxotrophy prevents persistence of escapes and hybrids containing the transgene in an uncontrolled environment, but does not prevent transgene movement from the crop. Recoverable block of function, intein trans-splicing and transgene excision all use recombinases to modify the transgene in planta either to induce expression or to prevent it. All require optimal conditions and 100% accuracy to function and none have been tested under field conditions as yet. All will contain the GM trait but all will allow some non-native DNA to escape to wild populations or to non-GM crops. There are particular issues with GM trees and grasses as both are largely undomesticated, wind pollinated and perennial, thus providing many opportunities for hybridisation. Some species of both trees and grass are also capable of vegetative propagation without sexual reproduction. There are additional concerns regarding the weedy nature of many grass species and the long-term stability of GM traits across the life span of trees. Transgene stability and conferred sterility are difficult to trial in trees as most field trials are only conducted during the juvenile phase of tree growth. Bio-pharming of pharmaceutical and industrial compounds in plants Bio-pharming of pharmaceutical and industrial compounds in plants offers an attractive alternative to mammalian-based pharmaceutical and vaccine production. Several plantbased products are already on the market (Prodigene’s avidin, β-glucuronidase, trypsin generated in GM maize; Ventria’s lactoferrin generated in GM rice). Numerous products are in clinical trials (collagen, antibodies against tooth decay and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma from tobacco; human gastric lipase, therapeutic enzymes, dietary supplements from maize; Hepatitis B and Norwalk virus vaccines from potato; rabies vaccines from spinach; dietary supplements from Arabidopsis). The initial production platforms for plant-based pharmaceuticals were selected from conventional crops, largely because an established knowledge base already existed. Tobacco and other leafy crops such as alfalfa, lettuce and spinach are widely used as leaves can be harvested and no flowering is required. Many of these crops can be grown in contained greenhouses. Potato is also widely used and can also be grown in contained conditions. The introduction of morphological markers may aid in the recognition and traceability of crops expressing pharmaceutical products. Plant cells or plant parts may be transformed and maintained in culture to produce recombinant products in a contained environment. Plant cells in suspension or in vitro, roots, root cells and guttation fluid from leaves may be engineered to secrete proteins that may be harvested in a continuous, non-destructive manner. Most strategies in this category remain developmental and have not been commercially adopted at present. Transient expression produces GM compounds from non-GM plants via the utilisation of bacterial or viral vectors. These vectors introduce the trait into specific tissues of whole plants or plant parts, but do not insert them into the heritable genome. There are some limitations of scale and the field release of such crops will require the regulation of the vector. However, several companies have several transiently expressed products in clinical and pre-clinical trials from crops raised in physical containment.

Are property prices non-linear? An investigation of the behaviour of US REITs and UK property company shares

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behaviour. Price movements in the US Real Estate Investment Trusts and UK Property Companies Markets are explored using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both US and UK markets, distinctive behaviour emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behaviour across regimes.

Mutation of toxB and a truncated version of the efa-1 gene in Escherichia coli O157 : H7 influences the expression and secretion of locus of enterocyte effacement-encoded proteins but not intestinal colonization in calves or sheep

Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) strains comprise a broad group of bacteria, some of which cause attaching and effacing (AE) lesions and enteritis in humans and animals. Non-O157:H7 EHEC strains contain the gene efa-1 (referred to in previous publications as efa1), which influences adherence to cultured epithelial cells. An almost identical gene in enteropathogenic E. coli (lifA) mediates the inhibition of lymphocyte proliferation and proinflammatory cytokine synthesis. We have shown previously that significantly lower numbers of EHEC 05 and 0111 efa-1 mutants are shed in feces following experimental infection in calves and that these mutants exhibit reduced adherence to intestinal epithelia compared with isogenic wild-type strains. E. coli O157:H7 strains lack efa-1 but encode a homolog on the pO157 plasmid (toxB/l7095) and contain a truncated version of the efa-1 gene (efa-1'/z4332 in O island 122 of the EDL933 chromosome). Here we report that E. coli O157:H7 toxB and efa-1' single and double mutants exhibit reduced adherence to cultured epithelial cells and show reduced expression and secretion of proteins encoded by the locus of enterocyte effacement (LEE), which plays a key role in the host-cell interactions of EHEC. The activity of LEE1, LEE4, and LEE5 promoters was not significantly altered in E. coli O157:H7 strains harboring toxB or efa-1' mutations, indicating that the effect on the expression of LEE-encoded secreted proteins occurs at a posttranscriptional level. Despite affecting type III secretion, mutation of toxB and efa-1' did not significantly affect the course of fecal shedding of E. coli O157:H7 following experimental inoculation of 10- to 14-day-old calves or 6-week-old sheep. Mutation of tir caused a significant reduction in fecal shedding of E. coli O157:H7 in calves, indicating that the formation of AE lesions is important for colonization of the bovine intestine.