The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Reduced-order modelling of a high-voltage oscillatory impulse generator

The design of high-voltage equipment encompasses the study of oscillatory surges caused by transients such as those produced by switching. By obtaining a model, the response of which reconstructs that observed in the actual system, simulation studies and critical tests can be carried out on the model rather than on the equipment itself. In this paper, methods for the construction of simplified models are described and it is shown how the use of a complex model does not necessarily result in superior response pattern reconstruction.

Multiple PID mapping using neural networks in a MIMO steam generator system

A neural network was used to map three PID operating regions for a two-input two-output steam generator system. The network was used in stand alone feedforward operation to control the whole operating range of the process, after being trained from the PID controllers corresponding to each control region. The network inputs are the plant error signals, their integral, their derivative and a 4-error delay train.

Detection of Parkinson’s disease tremor-onset with a frequency analysing artificial neural network

Deep Brain Stimulator devices are becoming widely used for therapeutic benefits in movement disorders such as Parkinson's disease. Prolonging the battery life span of such devices could dramatically reduce the risks and accumulative costs associated with surgical replacement. This paper demonstrates how an artificial neural network can be trained using pre-processing frequency analysis of deep brain electrode recordings to detect the onset of tremor in Parkinsonian patients. Implementing this solution into an 'intelligent' neurostimulator device will remove the need for continuous stimulation currently used, and open up the possibility of demand-driven stimulation. Such a methodology could potentially decrease the power consumption of a deep brain pulse generator.

Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change.

This paper describes the development and first results of the “Community Integrated Assessment System” (CIAS), a unique multi-institutional modular and flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Key to this development is the supporting software infrastructure, SoftIAM. Through it, CIAS is distributed between the community of institutions which has each contributed modules to the CIAS system. At the heart of SoftIAM is the Bespoke Framework Generator (BFG) which enables flexibility in the assembly and composition of individual modules from a pool to form coupled models within CIAS, and flexibility in their deployment onto the available software and hardware resources. Such flexibility greatly enhances modellers’ ability to re-configure the CIAS coupled models to answer different questions, thus tracking evolving policy needs. It also allows rigorous testing of the robustness of IA modelling results to the use of different component modules representing the same processes (for example, the economy). Such processes are often modelled in very different ways, using different paradigms, at the participating institutions. An illustrative application to the study of the relationship between the economy and the earth’s climate system is provided.

Generating recipient-centred explanations about drug prescription

In this paper we describe how we generated written explanations to ‘indirect users’ of a knowledge-based system in the domain of drug prescription. We call ‘indirect users’ the intended recipients of explanations, to distinguish them from the prescriber (the ‘direct’ user) who interacts with the system. The Explanation Generator was designed after several studies about indirect users' information needs and physicians' explanatory attitudes in this domain. It integrates text planning techniques with ATN-based surface generation. A double modeling component enables adapting the information content, order and style to the indirect user to whom explanation is addressed. Several examples of computer-generated texts are provided, and they are contrasted with the physicians' explanations to discuss advantages and limits of the approach adopted.

Systolic random number generation for genetic algorithms

A parallel hardware random number generator for use with a VLSI genetic algorithm processing device is proposed. The design uses an systolic array of mixed congruential random number generators. The generators are constantly reseeded with the outputs of the proceeding generators to avoid significant biasing of the randomness of the array which would result in longer times for the algorithm to converge to a solution. 1 Introduction In recent years there has been a growing interest in developing hardware genetic algorithm devices [1, 2, 3]. A genetic algorithm (GA) is a stochastic search and optimization technique which attempts to capture the power of natural selection by evolving a population of candidate solutions by a process of selection and reproduction [4]. In keeping with the evolutionary analogy, the solutions are called chromosomes with each chromosome containing a number of genes. Chromosomes are commonly simple binary strings, the bits being the genes.

A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Common variants of apolipoprotein A-IV differ in their ability to inhibit low density lipoprotein oxidation

Apolipoprotein A-IV (apoA-IV) inhibits lipid peroxidation, thus demonstrating potential anti-atherogenic properties. The aim of this study was to investigate how the inhibition of low density lipoprotein (LDL) oxidation was influenced by common apoA-IV isoforms. Recombinant wild type apoA-IV (100 mu g/ml) significantly inhibited the oxidation of LDL (50 mu g protein/ml) by 5 mu M CuSO4 (P < 0.005), but not by 100 mu M CuSO4, suggesting that it may act by binding copper ions. ApoA-IV also inhibited the oxidation of LDL by the water-soluble free-radical generator 2,2'-azobis(amidinopropane) dihydrochloride (AAPH; I mM), as shown by the two-fold increase in the time for half maximal conjugated diene formation (T-1/2; P < 0.05) suggesting it can also scavenge free radicals in the aqueous phase. Compared to wild type apoA-IV, apoA-IV-S347 decreased T-1/2 by 15% (P = 0.036) and apoA-IV-H360 increased T-1/2 by 18% (P = 0.046). All apoA-IV isoforms increased the relative electrophoretic mobility of native LDL, suggesting apoA-IV can bind to LDL and acts as a site-specific antioxidant. The reduced inhibition of LDL oxidation by apoA-IV-S347 compared to wild type apoA-IV may account for the previous association of the APOA4 S347 variant with increased CHD risk and oxidative stress. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal 3D surface reconstruction from multiview photographic images

This paper describes a new method for reconstructing 3D surface using a small number, e.g. 10, of 2D photographic images. The images are taken at different viewing directions by a perspective camera with full prior knowledge of the camera configurations. The reconstructed object's surface is represented a set of triangular facets. We empirically demonstrate that if the viewing directions are uniformly distributed around the object's viewing sphere, then the reconstructed 3D points optimally cluster closely on a highly curved part of the surface and are widely, spread on smooth or fat parts. The advantage of this property is that the reconstructed points along a surface or a contour generator are not undersampled or underrepresented because surfaces or contours should be sampled or represented with more densely points where their curvatures are high. The more complex the contour's shape, the greater is the number of points required, but the greater the number of points is automatically generated by the proposed method Given that the viewing directions are uniformly distributed, the number and distribution of the reconstructed points depend on the shape or the curvature of the surface regardless of the size of the surface or the size of the object.

Examining random number generators used in stochastic iteration algorithms

This paper investigates random number generators in stochastic iteration algorithms that require infinite uniform sequences. We take a simple model of the general transport equation and solve it with the application of a linear congruential generator, the Mersenne twister, the mother-of-all generators, and a true random number generator based on quantum effects. With this simple model we show that for reasonably contractive operators the theoretically not infinite-uniform sequences perform also well. Finally, we demonstrate the power of stochastic iteration for the solution of the light transport problem.

3D surface point and wireframe reconstruction from multiview photographic images

This paper describes a new method for reconstructing 3D surface points and a wireframe on the surface of a freeform object using a small number, e.g. 10, of 2D photographic images. The images are taken at different viewing directions by a perspective camera with full prior knowledge of the camera configurations. The reconstructed surface points are frontier points and the wireframe is a network of contour generators. Both of them are reconstructed by pairing apparent contours in the 2D images. Unlike previous works, we empirically demonstrate that if the viewing directions are uniformly distributed around the object's viewing sphere, then the reconstructed 3D points automatically cluster closely on a highly curved part of the surface and are widely spread on smooth or flat parts. The advantage of this property is that the reconstructed points along a surface or a contour generator are not under-sampled or under-represented because surfaces or contours should be sampled or represented with more densely points where their curvatures are high. The more complex the contour's shape, the greater is the number of points required, but the greater the number of points is automatically generated by the proposed method. Given that the viewing directions are uniformly distributed, the number and distribution of the reconstructed points depend on the shape or the curvature of the surface regardless of the size of the surface or the size of the object. The unique pattern of the reconstructed points and contours may be used in 31) object recognition and measurement without computationally intensive full surface reconstruction. The results are obtained from both computer-generated and real objects. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.