Multiple routes to mammalian diversity

The radiation of the mammals provides a 165-million-year test case for evolutionary theories of how species occupy and then fill ecological niches. It is widely assumed that species often diverge rapidly early in their evolution, and that this is followed by a longer, drawn-out period of slower evolutionary fine-tuning as natural selection fits organisms into an increasingly occupied niche space1,2. But recent studies have hinted that the process may not be so simple3–5. Here we apply statistical methods that automatically detect temporal shifts in the rate of evolution through time to a comprehensive mammalian phylogeny6 and data set7 of body sizes of 3,185 extant species. Unexpectedly, the majority of mammal species, including two of the most speciose orders (Rodentia and Chiroptera), have no history of substantial and sustained increases in the rates of evolution. Instead, a subset of the mammals has experienced an explosive increase (between 10- and 52-fold) in the rate of evolution along the single branch leading to the common ancestor of their monophyletic group (for example Chiroptera), followed by a quick return to lower or background levels. The remaining species are a taxonomically diverse assemblage showing a significant, sustained increase or decrease in their rates of evolution. These results necessarily decouple morphological diversification from speciation and suggest that the processes that give rise to the morphological diversity of a class of animals are far more free to vary than previously considered. Niches do not seem to fill up, and diversity seems to arise whenever, wherever and at whatever rate it is advantageous.

Tolerance traits and the stability of mutualism

Identifying factors which allow the evolution and persistence of cooperative interactions between species is a fundamental issue in evolutionary ecology. Various hypotheses have been suggested which generally focus on mechanisms that allow cooperative genotypes in different species to maintain interactions over space and time. Here, we emphasise the fact that even within mutualisms (interactions with net positive fitness effects for both partners), there may still be inherent costs, such as the occasional predation by ants upon aphids. Individuals engaged in mutualisms benefit from minimising these costs as long as it is not at the expense of breaking the interspecific interaction, which offers a net positive benefit. The most common and obvious defence traits to minimise interspecific interaction costs are resistance traits, which act to reduce encounter rate between two organisms. Tolerance traits, in contrast, minimise fitness costs to the actor, but without reducing encounter rate. Given that, by definition, it is beneficial to remain in mutualistic interactions, the only viable traits to minimise costs are tolerance-based 'defence' strategies. Thus, we propose that tolerance traits are an important factor promoting stability in mutualisms. Furthermore, because resistance traits tend to propagate coevolutionary arms races between antagonists, whilst tolerance traits do not, we also suggest that tolerance-based defence strategies may be important in facilitating the transition from antagonistic interactions into mutualisms. For example, the mutualism between ants and aphids has been suggested to have evolved from parasitism. We describe how phenotypic plasticity in honeydew production may be a tolerance trait that has prevented escalation into an antagonistic arms race and instead led to mutualistic coevolution.

Exploring costs and benefits of HACCP: a pilot study in the dairy and meat products industry in the European Union

Since 1995 the Directive 93/43/EEC prescribes the application of HACCP principles in food production. However, despite the major importance of food safety, there is a fundamental lack of information on the economic impact of this directive. This project aims to study costs and benefits of HACCP, including the impact of HACCP on public health. Due to the complexity of the issue, we propose to start with a pilot study, limited to dairy and meat products industry in NL, UK and I. Information will be obtained at two levels: production chain and public health. Integration of these results will result in recommendations at the levels of EU member states and industry for regulation and supporting measures, and in recommendations for an effective and efficient approach for a more comprehensive project on costs and benefits of HACCP, covering major parts of the food industry in EU member states.

An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Location, control and innovation in knowledge-intensive industries

The rising share of intangibles in economies worldwide highlights the crucial role of knowledge-intensive and creative industries in current and future wealth generation. The recognition of this trend has led to intense competition in these industries. At the micro-level, firms from both advanced and emerging economies are globally dispersing their value chains to control costs and leverage capabilities. The geography of innovation is the outcome of a dynamic process whereby firms from emerging economies strive to catch-up with advanced economy competitors, creating strong pressures for continued innovation. However, two distinct strategies can be discerned with regard to the control of the value chain. A vertical integration strategy emphasizes taking advantage of ‘linkage economies’ whereby controlling multiple value chain activities enhances the efficiency and effectiveness of each one of them. In contrast, a specialization strategy focuses on identifying and controlling the creative heart of the value chain, while outsourcing all other activities. The global mobile handset industry is used as the template to illustrate the theory.

The extent to which potential benefits to EU farmers of adopting transgenic crops are reduced by cost of compliance with coexistence regulations

This article forecasts the extent to which the potential benefits of adopting transgenic crops may be reduced by costs of compliance with coexistence regulations applicable in various member states of the EU. A dynamic economic model is described and used to calculate the potential yield and gross margin of a set of crops grown in a selection of typical rotation scenarios. The model simulates varying levels of pest, weed, and drought pressures, with associated management strategies regarding pesticide and herbicide application, and irrigation. We report on the initial use of the model to calculate the net reduction in gross margin attributable to coexistence costs for insect-resistant (IR) and herbicide-tolerant (HT) maize grown continuously or in a rotation, HT soya grown in a rotation, HT oilseed rape grown in a rotation, and HT sugarbeet grown in a rotation. Conclusions are drawn about conditions favoring inclusion of a transgenic crop in a crop rotation, having regard to farmers’ attitude toward risk.

Reliability comparison of transmit/receive diversity and error control coding in low-power medium access control protocols

Low-power medium access control (MAC) protocols used for communication of energy constraint wireless embedded devices do not cope well with situations where transmission channels are highly erroneous. Existing MAC protocols discard corrupted messages which lead to costly retransmissions. To improve transmission performance, it is possible to include an error correction scheme and transmit/receive diversity. It is possible to add redundant information to transmitted packets in order to recover data from corrupted packets. It is also possible to make use of transmit/receive diversity via multiple antennas to improve error resiliency of transmissions. Both schemes may be used in conjunction to further improve the performance. In this study, the authors show how an error correction scheme and transmit/receive diversity can be integrated in low-power MAC protocols. Furthermore, the authors investigate the achievable performance gains of both methods. This is important as both methods have associated costs (processing requirements; additional antennas and power) and for a given communication situation it must be decided which methods should be employed. The authors’ results show that, in many practical situations, error control coding outperforms transmission diversity; however, if very high reliability is required, it is useful to employ both schemes together.

Communication costs and the boundaries of the firm

Much has been written about where the boundaries of the firm are drawn, but little about what occurs at the boundaries themselves. When a firm subcontracts, does it inform its suppliers fully of what it requires, or is it willing to accept what they have available? In practice firms often engage in a dialogue, or conversation, with their suppliers, in which at first they set out their general requirements, and only when the supplier reports back on how these can be met are their more specific requirements set out. This paper models such conversations as a rational response to communication costs. The model is used to examine the impact of new information technology, such as CAD/CAM, on the conduct of subcontracting. It can also be used to examine its impact on the marketing activities of firms. The technique of analysis, which is based on the economic theory of teams, has more general applications too. It can be used to model all the forms of dialogue involved in the processes of coordination both within and between firms.

COCO-2: a model to assess the economic impact of an accident

COCO-2 is a model for assessing the potential economic costs likely to arise off-site following an accident at a nuclear reactor. COCO-2 builds on work presented in the model COCO-1 developed in 1991 by considering economic effects in more detail, and by including more sources of loss. Of particular note are: the consideration of the directly affected local economy, indirect losses that stem from the directly affected businesses, losses due to changes in tourism consumption, integration with the large body of work on recovery after an accident and a more systematic approach to health costs. The work, where possible, is based on official data sources for reasons of traceability, maintenance and ease of future development. This report describes the methodology and discusses the results of an example calculation. Guidance on how the base economic data can be updated in the future is also provided.

High-throughput monitoring of wild bee diversity and abundance via mitogenomics

1. Bee populations and other pollinators face multiple, synergistically acting threats, which have led to population declines, loss of local species richness and pollination services, and extinctions. However, our understanding of the degree, distribution and causes of declines is patchy, in part due to inadequate monitoring systems, with the challenge of taxonomic identification posing a major logistical barrier. Pollinator conservation would benefit from a high-throughput identification pipeline. 2. We show that the metagenomic mining and resequencing of mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomics) can be applied successfully to bulk samples of wild bees. We assembled the mitogenomes of 48 UK bee species and then shotgun-sequenced total DNA extracted from 204 whole bees that had been collected in 10 pan-trap samples from farms in England and been identified morphologically to 33 species. Each sample data set was mapped against the 48 reference mitogenomes. 3. The morphological and mitogenomic data sets were highly congruent. Out of 63 total species detections in the morphological data set, the mitogenomic data set made 59 correct detections (93�7% detection rate) and detected six more species (putative false positives). Direct inspection and an analysis with species-specific primers suggested that these putative false positives were most likely due to incorrect morphological IDs. Read frequency significantly predicted species biomass frequency (R2 = 24�9%). Species lists, biomass frequencies, extrapolated species richness and community structure were recovered with less error than in a metabarcoding pipeline. 4. Mitogenomics automates the onerous task of taxonomic identification, even for cryptic species, allowing the tracking of changes in species richness and istributions. A mitogenomic pipeline should thus be able to contain costs, maintain consistently high-quality data over long time series, incorporate retrospective taxonomic revisions and provide an auditable evidence trail. Mitogenomic data sets also provide estimates of species counts within samples and thus have potential for tracking population trajectories.

Fast and slow responses of Southern Ocean sea surface temperature to SAM in coupled climate models

We investigate how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) around Antarctica respond to the Southern An- nular Mode (SAM) on multiple timescales. To that end we examine the relationship between SAM and SST within unperturbed preindustrial control simulations of coupled general circulation models (GCMs) included in the Climate Modeling Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We develop a technique to extract the re- sponse of the Southern Ocean SST (55◦S−70◦S) to a hypothetical step increase in the SAM index. We demonstrate that in many GCMs, the expected SST step re- sponse function is nonmonotonic in time. Following a shift to a positive SAM anomaly, an initial cooling regime can transition into surface warming around Antarctica. However, there are large differences across the CMIP5 ensemble. In some models the step response function never changes sign and cooling persists, while in other GCMs the SST anomaly crosses over from negative to positive values only three years after a step increase in the SAM. This intermodel diversity can be related to differences in the models’ climatological thermal ocean stratification in the region of seasonal sea ice around Antarctica. Exploiting this relationship, we use obser- vational data for the time-mean meridional and vertical temperature gradients to constrain the real Southern Ocean response to SAM on fast and slow timescales.

New perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks

The aim of this paper is to explore the use of both an Eulerian and system-centered method of storm track diagnosis applied to a wide range of meteorological fields at multiple levels to provide a range of perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere winter transient motions and to give new insight into the storm track organization and behavior. The data used are primarily from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses project extended with operational analyses to the period 1979-2000. This is supplemented by data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and Goddard Earth Observing System 1 reanalyses. The range of fields explored include the usual mean sea level pressure and the lower- and upper-tropospheric height, meridional wind, vorticity, and temperature, as well as the potential vorticity (PV) on a 330-K isentropic surface (PV330) and potential temperature on a PV = 2 PVU surface (theta(PV2)). As well as reporting the primary analysis based on feature tracking, the standard Eulerian 2-6-day bandpass filtered variance analysis is also reported and contrasted with the tracking diagnostics. To enable the feature points to be identified as extrema for all the chosen fields, a planetary wave background structure is removed at each data time. The bandpass filtered variance derived from the different fields yield a rich picture of the nature and comparative magnitudes of the North Pacific and Atlantic storm tracks, and of the Siberian and Mediterranean candidates for storm tracks. The feature tracking allows the cyclonic and anticyclonic activities to be considered seperately. The analysis indicates that anticyclonic features are generally much weaker with less coherence than the cyclonic systems. Cyclones and features associated with them are shown to have much greater coherence and give tracking diagnostics that create a vivid storm track picture that includes the aspects highlighted by the variances as well as highlighting aspects that are not readily available from Eulerian studies. In particular, the upper-tropospheric features as shown by negative theta(PV2), for example, occur in a band spiraling around the hemisphere from the subtropical North Atlantic eastward to the high latitudes of the same ocean basin. Lower-troposphere storm tracks occupy more limited longitudinal sectors, with many of the individual storms possibly triggered from the upper-tropospheric disturbances in the spiral band of activity.

WREN: electronic management system for facilities management

This paper describes a case study of an electronic data management system developed in-house by the Facilities Management Directorate (FMD) of an educational institution in the UK. The FMD Maintenance and Business Services department is responsible for the maintenance of the built-estate owned by the university. The department needs to have a clear definition of the type of work undertaken and the administration that enables any maintenance work to be carried out. These include the management of resources, budget, cash flow and workflow of reactive, preventative and planned maintenance of the campus. In order to be more efficient in supporting the business process, the FMD had decided to move from a paper-based information system to an electronic system, WREN, to support the business process of the FMD. Some of the main advantages of WREN are that it is tailor-made to fit the purpose of the users; it is cost effective when it comes to modifications on the system; and the database can also be used as a knowledge management tool. There is a trade-off; as WREN is tailored to the specific requirements of the FMD, it may not be easy to implement within a different institution without extensive modifications. However, WREN is successful in not only allowing the FMD to carry out the tasks of maintaining and looking after the built-estate of the university, but also has achieved its aim to minimise costs and maximise efficiency.

Re-engineering construction: going against the grain

An overtly critical perspective on 're-engineering construction' is presented. It is contended that re-engineering is impossible to define in terms of its substantive content and is best understood as a rhetorical label. In recent years, the language of re-engineering has heavily shaped the construction research agenda. The declared goals are to lower costs and improve value for the customer. The discourse is persuasive because it reflects the ideology of the 'enterprise culture' and the associated rhetoric of customer responsiveness. Re-engineering is especially attractive to the construction industry because it reflects and reinforces the existing dominant way of thinking. The overriding tendency is to reduce organizational complexities to a mechanistic quest for efficiency. Labour is treated as a commodity. Within this context, the objectives of re-engineering become 'common sense'. Knowledge becomes subordinate to the dominant ideology of neo-liberalism. The accepted research agenda for re-engineering construction exacerbates the industry's problems and directly contributes to the casualization of the workforce. The continued adherence to machine metaphors by the construction industry's top management has directly contributed to the 'bad attitudes' and 'adversarial culture' that they repeatedly decry. Supposedly neutral topics such as pre-assembly, partnering, supply chain management and lean thinking serve only to justify the shift towards bogus labour-only subcontracting and the associated reduction of employment rights. The continued casualization of the workforce raises real questions about the industry's future capacity to deliver high-quality construction. In order to appear 'relevant' to the needs of industry, it seems that the research community is doomed to perpetuate this regressive cycle.