Climatic impacts of fresh water hosing under Last Glacial Maximum conditions: a multi-model study

Fresh water hosing simulations, in which a fresh water flux is imposed in the North Atlantic to force fluctuations of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, have been routinely performed, first to study the climatic signature of different states of this circulation, then, under present or future conditions, to investigate the potential impact of a partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet. The most compelling examples of climatic changes potentially related to AMOC abrupt variations, however, are found in high resolution palaeo-records from around the globe for the last glacial period. To study those more specifically, more and more fresh water hosing experiments have been performed under glacial conditions in the recent years. Here we compare an ensemble constituted by 11 such simulations run with 6 different climate models. All simulations follow a slightly different design, but are sufficiently close in their design to be compared. They all study the impact of a fresh water hosing imposed in the extra-tropical North Atlantic. Common features in the model responses to hosing are the cooling over the North Atlantic, extending along the sub-tropical gyre in the tropical North Atlantic, the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ and the weakening of the African and Indian monsoons. On the other hand, the expression of the bipolar see-saw, i.e., warming in the Southern Hemisphere, differs from model to model, with some restricting it to the South Atlantic and specific regions of the southern ocean while others simulate a widespread southern ocean warming. The relationships between the features common to most models, i.e., climate changes over the north and tropical Atlantic, African and Asian monsoon regions, are further quantified. These suggest a tight correlation between the temperature and precipitation changes over the extra-tropical North Atlantic, but different pathways for the teleconnections between the AMOC/North Atlantic region and the African and Indian monsoon regions.

Multi‐method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL-2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model.

Multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA) for modelling floodplain hydrological processes

When studying hydrological processes with a numerical model, global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is essential if one is to understand the impact of model parameters and model formulation on results. However, different definitions of sensitivity can lead to a difference in the ranking of importance of the different model factors. Here we combine a fuzzy performance function with different methods of calculating global sensitivity to perform a multi-method global sensitivity analysis (MMGSA). We use an application of a finite element subsurface flow model (ESTEL-2D) on a flood inundation event on a floodplain of the River Severn to illustrate this new methodology. We demonstrate the utility of the method for model understanding and show how the prediction of state variables, such as Darcian velocity vectors, can be affected by such a MMGSA. This paper is a first attempt to use GSA with a numerically intensive hydrological model

Fast and slow precipitation responses to individual climate forcers: a PDRMIP multi-model study

Precipitation is expected to respond differently to various drivers of anthropogenic climate change. We present the first results from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), where nine global climate models have perturbed CO2, CH4, black carbon, sulfate, and solar insolation. We divide the resulting changes to global mean and regional precipitation into fast responses that scale with changes in atmospheric absorption and slow responses scaling with surface temperature change. While the overall features are broadly similar between models, we find significant regional intermodel variability, especially over land. Black carbon stands out as a component that may cause significant model diversity in predicted precipitation change. Processes linked to atmospheric absorption are less consistently modeled than those linked to top-of-atmosphere radiative forcing. We identify a number of land regions where the model ensemble consistently predicts that fast precipitation responses to climate perturbations dominate over the slow, temperature-driven responses.

The impact of an intelligent classroom on pupils' interactive behaviour

Purpose – The purpose of this research is to determine whether new intelligent classrooms will affect the behaviour of children in their new learning environments. Design/methodology/approach – A multi-method study approach was used to carry out the research. Behavioural mapping was used to observe and monitor the classroom environment and analyse usage. Two new classrooms designed by INTEGER (Intelligent and Green) in two different UK schools provided the case studies to determine whether intelligent buildings (learning environments) can enhance learning experiences. Findings – Several factors were observed in the learning environments: mobility, flexibility, use of technology, interactions. Relationships among them were found indicating that the new environments have positive impact on pupils' behaviour. Practical implications – A very useful feedback for the Classrooms of the Future initiative will be provided, which can be used as basis for the School of the Future initiative. Originality/value – The behavioural analysis method described in this study will enable an evaluation of the “Schools of the Future” concept, under children's perspective. Using a real life laboratory gives contribution to the education field by rethinking the classroom environment and the way of teaching.

The relationship between challenging parenting behaviour and childhood anxiety disorders

Background: This research investigates the relationship between challenging parenting behaviour and childhood anxiety disorders proposed by Bögels and Phares (2008). Challenging parenting behaviour involves the playful encouragement of children to go beyond their own limits, and may decrease children’s risk for anxiety (Bögels & Phares, 2008). Method: Parents (n = 164 mothers, 144 fathers) of 164 children aged between 3.4 and 4.8 years participated in the current study. A multi-method, multi-informant assessment of anxiety was used, incorporating data from diagnostic interviews as well as questionnaire measures. Parents completed self-report measures of their parenting behaviour (n = 147 mothers, 138 fathers) and anxiety (n = 154 mothers, 143 fathers). Mothers reported on their child’s anxiety via questionnaire as well as diagnostic interview (n = 156 and 164 respectively). Of these children, 74 met criteria for an anxiety disorder and 90 did not. Results: Fathers engaged in challenging parenting behaviour more often than mothers. Both mothers’ and fathers’ challenging parenting behaviour was associated with lower report of child anxiety symptoms. However, only mothers’ challenging parenting behaviour was found to predict child clinical anxiety diagnosis. Limitations: Shared method variance from mothers confined the interpretation of these results. Moreover, due to study design, it is not possible to delineate cause and effect. Conclusions: The finding with respect to maternal challenging parenting behaviour was not anticipated, prompting replication of these results. Future research should investigate the role of challenging parenting behaviour by both caregivers as this may have implications for parenting interventions for anxious children.

Still searching for graves: an analytical strategy for interpreting geophysical data used in the search for “unmarked” graves

Searching for and mapping the physical extent of unmarked graves using geophysical techniques has proven difficult in many cases. The success of individual geophysical techniques for detecting graves depends on a site-by-site basis. Significantly, detection of graves often results from measured contrasts that are linked to the background soils rather than the type of archaeological feature associated with the grave. It is evident that investigation of buried remains should be considered within a 3D space as the variation in burial environment can be extremely varied through the grave. Within this paper, we demonstrate the need for a multi-method survey strategy to investigate unmarked graves, as applied at a “planned” but unmarked pauper’s cemetery. The outcome from this case study provides new insights into the strategy that is required at such sites. Perhaps the most significant conclusion is that unmarked graves are best understood in terms of characterization rather than identification. In this paper, we argue for a methodological approach that, while following the current trends to use multiple techniques, is fundamentally dependent on a structured approach to the analysis of the data. The ramifications of this case study illustrate the necessity of an integrated strategy to provide a more holistic understanding of unmarked graves that may help aid in management of these unseen but important aspects of our heritage. It is concluded that the search for graves is still a current debate and one that will be solved by methodological rather than technique-based arguments.

AIDS, mobility and commercial sex in Ethiopia: Implications for policy

Since the emergence of the AIDS pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa, male mobility has been highlighted as one of the reasons for the spread of the disease with men employing the services of commercial sex workers while away from home. However, sex workers' mobility and the implications of this for their access to prevention services, has largely been ignored. This paper, based on multi-method qualitative research with 60 young sex workers in two Ethiopian towns, reveals that sex workers are highly mobile, moving in order to attract a wider or different client base, for adventure and to conceal illnesses which might be associated with AIDS. In addition, sex workers are affected by restrictions on their movements, with girls working in bars and red-light areas having little free time to access projects. This paper advocates that policy approaches need to take account of this mobility in three ways: first, by exploring ways for girls to access information and maintain contact with support structures while moving between places of work; second, by building the capacity of sex workers to take greater control over decision-making in their day-to-day lives and third, by developing outreach strategies for taking services into bars and red-light areas.

UK Food Standards Agency cis-monounsaturated fatty acid workshop report

The UK Food Standards Agency convened a group of expert scientists to review current research investigating the optimal dietary intake for n-9 cis-monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA). The aim was to review the mechanisms underlying the reported beneficial effects of MUFA on CHD risk, and to establish priorities for future research. The issue of optimal MUFA intake is contingent upon optimal total fat intake; however, there is no consensus of opinion on what the optimal total fat intake should be. Thus, it was recommended that a large multi-centre study should look at the effects on CHD risk of MUFA replacement of saturated fatty acids in relation to varying total fat intakes; this study should be of sufficient size to take account of genetic variation, sex, physical activity and stage of life factors, as well as being of sufficient duration to account for adaptation to diets. Recommendations for studies investigating the mechanistic effects of MUFA were also made. Methods of manipulating the food chain to increase MUFA at the expense of saturated fatty acids were also discussed.