Modelling phosphorus dynamics in multi-branch river systems: A study of the Black River, Lake Simcoe, Ontario, Canada

High rates of nutrient loading from agricultural and urban development have resulted in surface water eutrophication and groundwater contamination in regions of Ontario. In Lake Simcoe (Ontario, Canada), anthropogenic nutrient contributions have contributed to increased algal growth, low hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations, and impaired fish reproduction. An ambitious programme has been initiated to reduce phosphorus loads to the lake, aiming to achieve at least a 40% reduction in phosphorus loads by 2045. Achievement of this target necessitates effective remediation strategies, which will rely upon an improved understanding of controls on nutrient export from tributaries of Lake Simcoe as well as improved understanding of the importance of phosphorus cycling within the lake. In this paper, we describe a new model structure for the integrated dynamic and process-based model INCA-P, which allows fully-distributed applications, suited to branched river networks. We demonstrate application of this model to the Black River, a tributary of Lake Simcoe, and use INCA-P to simulate the fluxes of P entering the lake system, apportion phosphorus among different sources in the catchment, and explore future scenarios of land-use change and nutrient management to identify high priority sites for implementation of watershed best management practises.

Computational fluid dynamics modelling of the air movement in an environmental test chamber with a respiring manikin

In recent years, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has been widely used as a method of simulating airflow and addressing indoor environment problems. The complexity of airflows within the indoor environment would make experimental investigation difficult to undertake and also imposes significant challenges on turbulence modelling for flow prediction. This research examines through CFD visualization how air is distributed within a room. Measurements of air temperature and air velocity have been performed at a number of points in an environmental test chamber with a human occupant. To complement the experimental results, CFD simulations were carried out and the results enabled detailed analysis and visualization of spatial distribution of airflow patterns and the effect of different parameters to be predicted. The results demonstrate the complexity of modelling human exhalation within a ventilated enclosure and shed some light into how to achieve more realistic predictions of the airflow within an occupied enclosure.

Predicting mesh density for adaptive modelling of the global atmosphere

The shallow water equations are solved using a mesh of polygons on the sphere, which adapts infrequently to the predicted future solution. Infrequent mesh adaptation reduces the cost of adaptation and load-balancing and will thus allow for more accurate mapping on adaptation. We simulate the growth of a barotropically unstable jet adapting the mesh every 12 h. Using an adaptation criterion based largely on the gradient of the vorticity leads to a mesh with around 20 per cent of the cells of a uniform mesh that gives equivalent results. This is a similar proportion to previous studies of the same test case with mesh adaptation every 1–20 min. The prediction of the mesh density involves solving the shallow water equations on a coarse mesh in advance of the locally refined mesh in order to estimate where features requiring higher resolution will grow, decay or move to. The adaptation criterion consists of two parts: that resolved on the coarse mesh, and that which is not resolved and so is passively advected on the coarse mesh. This combination leads to a balance between resolving features controlled by the large-scale dynamics and maintaining fine-scale features.

Integrated modelling of climate change impacts on water resources and quality in a lowland catchment: River Kennet, UK

An integrated approach to climate change impact assessment is explored by linking established models of regional climate (SDSM), water resources (CATCHMOD) and water quality (INCA) within a single framework. A case study of the River Kennet illustrates how the system can be used to investigate aspects of climate change uncertainty, deployable water resources, and water quality dynamics in upper and lower reaches of the drainage network. The results confirm the large uncertainty in climate change scenarios and freshwater impacts due to the choice of general circulation model (GCM). This uncertainty is shown to be greatest during summer months as evidenced by large variations between GCM-derived projections of future tow river flows, deployable yield from groundwater, severity of nutrient flushing episodes, and Long-term trends in surface water quality. Other impacts arising from agricultural land-use reform or delivery of EU Water Framework Directive objectives under climate change could be evaluated using the same framework. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mathematical modelling of decision making processes in construction projects

Many different individuals, who have their own expertise and criteria for decision making, are involved in making decisions on construction projects. Decision-making processes are thus significantly affected by communication, in which a dynamic performance of human intentions leads to unpredictable outcomes. In order to theorise the decision making processes including communication, it is argued here that the decision making processes resemble evolutionary dynamics in terms of both selection and mutation, which can be expressed by the replicator-mutator equation. To support this argument, a mathematical model of decision making has been made from an analogy with evolutionary dynamics, in which there are three variables: initial support rate, business hierarchy, and power of persuasion. On the other hand, a survey of patterns in decision making in construction projects has also been performed through self-administered mail questionnaire to construction practitioners. Consequently, comparison between the numerical analysis of mathematical model and the statistical analysis of empirical data has shown a significant potential of the replicator-mutator equation as a tool to study dynamic properties of intentions in communication.

Dynamic modelling of a wind catcher/tower turret for natural ventilation

This paper discusses experimental and theoretical investigations and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modelling considerations to evaluate the performance of a square section wind catcher system connected to the top of a test room for the purpose of natural ventilation. The magnitude and distribution of pressure coefficients (C-p) around a wind catcher and the air flow into the test room were analysed. The modelling results indicated that air was supplied into the test room through the wind catcher's quadrants with positive external pressure coefficients and extracted out of the test room through quadrants with negative pressure coefficients. The air flow achieved through the wind catcher depends on the speed and direction of the wind. The results obtained using the explicit and AIDA implicit calculation procedures and CFX code correlate relatively well with the experimental results at lower wind speeds and with wind incidents at an angle of 0 degrees. Variation in the C-p and air flow results were observed particularly with a wind direction of 45 degrees. The explicit and implicit calculation procedures were found to be quick and easy to use in obtaining results whereas the wind tunnel tests were more expensive in terms of effort, cost and time. CFD codes are developing rapidly and are widely available especially with the decreasing prices of computer hardware. However, results obtained using CFD codes must be considered with care, particularly in the absence of empirical data.

Modelling human dynamics in-situ for rehabilitation and therapy robots

This paper outlines some rehabilitation applications of manipulators and identifies that new approaches demand that the robot make an intimate contact with the user. Design of new generations of manipulators with programmable compliance along with higher level controllers that can set the compliance appropriately for the task, are both feasible propositions. We must thus gain a greater insight into the way in which a person interacts with a machine, particularly given that the interaction may be non-passive. We are primarily interested in the change in wrist and arm dynamics as the person co-contracts his/her muscles. It is observed that this leads to a change in stiffness that can push an actuated interface into a limit cycle. We use both experimental results gathered from a PHANToM haptic interface and a mathematical model to observe this effect. Results are relevant to the fields of rehabilitation and therapy robots, haptic interfaces, and telerobotics

Modelling of the natural chlorine cycling in a coniferous stand: implications for chlorine-36 behaviour in a contaminated forest environment

Considered as one of the most available radionuclide in soileplant system, 36Cl is of potential concern for long-term management of radioactive wastes, due to its high mobility and its long half-life. To evaluate the risk of dispersion and accumulation of 36Cl in the biosphere as a consequence of a potential contamination, there is a need for an appropriate understanding of the chlorine cycling dynamics in the ecosystems. To date, a small number of studies have investigated the chlorine transfer in the ecosystem including the transformation of chloride to organic chlorine but, to our knowledge, none have modelled this cycle. In this study, a model involving inorganic as well as organic pools in soils has been developed and parameterised to describe the biogeochemical fate of chlorine in a pine forest. The model has been evaluated for stable chlorine by performing a range of sensitivity analyses and by comparing the simulated to the observed values. Finally a range of contamination scenarios, which differ in terms of external supply, exposure time and source, has been simulated to estimate the possible accumulation of 36Cl within the different compartments of the coniferous stand. The sensitivity study supports the relevancy of the model and its compartments, and has highlighted the chlorine transfers affecting the most the residence time of chlorine in the stand. Compared to observations, the model simulates realistic values for the chlorine content within the different forest compartments. For both atmospheric and underground contamination scenarios most of the chlorine can be found in its organic form in the soil. However, in case of an underground source, about two times less chlorine accumulates in the system and proportionally more chlorine leaves the system through drainage than through volatilisation.

Steady state and dynamic modelling of nitrogen in the River Kennet: impacts of land use change since the 1930s

Steady state and dynamic models have been developed and applied to the River Kennet system. Annual nitrogen exports from the land surface to the river have been estimated based on land use from the 1930s and the 1990s. Long term modelled trends indicate that there has been a large increase in nitrogen transport into the river system driven by increased fertiliser application associated with increased cereal production, increased population and increased livestock levels. The dynamic model INCA Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments. has been applied to simulate the day-to-day transport of N from the terrestrial ecosystem to the riverine environment. This process-based model generates spatial and temporal data and reproduces the observed instream concentrations. Applying the model to current land use and 1930s land use indicates that there has been a major shift in the short term dynamics since the 1930s, with increased river and groundwater concentrations caused by both non-point source pollution from agriculture and point source discharges. �

NeMo: a platform for neural modelling of spiking neurons using GPUs

Simulating spiking neural networks is of great interest to scientists wanting to model the functioning of the brain. However, large-scale models are expensive to simulate due to the number and interconnectedness of neurons in the brain. Furthermore, where such simulations are used in an embodied setting, the simulation must be real-time in order to be useful. In this paper we present NeMo, a platform for such simulations which achieves high performance through the use of highly parallel commodity hardware in the form of graphics processing units (GPUs). NeMo makes use of the Izhikevich neuron model which provides a range of realistic spiking dynamics while being computationally efficient. Our GPU kernel can deliver up to 400 million spikes per second. This corresponds to a real-time simulation of around 40 000 neurons under biologically plausible conditions with 1000 synapses per neuron and a mean firing rate of 10 Hz.

Improving assessment and modelling of climate change impacts on global terrestrial biodiversity.

Understanding how species and ecosystems respond to climate change has become a major focus of ecology and conservation biology. Modelling approaches provide important tools for making future projections, but current models of the climate-biosphere interface remain overly simplistic, undermining the credibility of projections. We identify five ways in which substantial advances could be made in the next few years: (i) improving the accessibility and efficiency of biodiversity monitoring data, (ii) quantifying the main determinants of the sensitivity of species to climate change, (iii) incorporating community dynamics into projections of biodiversity responses, (iv) accounting for the influence of evolutionary processes on the response of species to climate change, and (v) improving the biophysical rule sets that define functional groupings of species in global models.