Model selection for the mixed logit with Bayesian estimation

In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) using Bayesian methods was employed to examine willingness-to-pay (WTP) to consume bread produced with reduced levels of pesticides so as to ameliorate environmental quality, from data generated by a choice experiment. Model comparison used the marginal likelihood, which is preferable for Bayesian model comparison and testing. Models containing constant and random parameters for a number of distributions were considered, along with models in ‘preference space’ and ‘WTP space’ as well as those allowing for misreporting. We found: strong support for the ML estimated in WTP space; little support for fixing the price coefficient a common practice advocated and adopted in the environmental economics literature; and, weak evidence for misreporting.

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Consumer willingness to pay for in-flight service and comfort levels: A choice experiment

In the competitive aviation market as a result of the emergence of low cost carriers, charter airlines have had to reconsider their approach to service provision. Specifically, the reduction in service and comfort levels offered by the low cost airlines provides charter carriers with an opportunity to differentiate their product based on the quality of the offering. To consider this strategic option we employ an on-line choice experiment to examine consumer choices with respect to the bundle of services on offer when deciding to purchase a flight, With these data we use the Bayesian methods to estimate a mixed logit specification. Our results reveal that in principle passengers are willing to pay a relatively large amount for enhanced service quality. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stated attribute non-attendance in successive choice experiments

Attribute non-attendance in choice experiments affects WTP estimates and therefore the validity of the method. A recent strand of literature uses attenuated estimates of marginal utilities of ignored attributes. Following this approach, we propose a generalisation of the mixed logit model whereby the distribution of marginal utility coefficients of a stated non-attender has a potentially lower mean and lower variance than those of a stated attender. Model comparison shows that our shrinkage approach fits the data better and produces more reliable WTP estimates. We further find that while reliability of stated attribute non-attendance increases in successive choice experiments, it does not increase when respondents report having ignored the same attribute twice.

A stated preference valuation of the non-market benefits of pollination services in the UK

Using a choice experiment survey this study examines the UK public's willingness to pay to conserve insect pollinators in relation to the levels of two pollination service benefits: maintaining local produce supplies and the aesthetic benefits of diverse wildflower assemblages. Willingness to pay was estimated using a Bayesian mixed logit with two contrasting controls for attribute non-attendance, exclusion and shrinkage. The results suggest that the UK public have an extremely strong preference to avoid a status quo scenario where pollinator populations and pollination services decline. Total willingness to pay was high and did not significantly vary between the two pollination service outputs, producing a conservative total of £379M over a sample of the tax-paying population of the UK, equivalent to £13.4 per UK taxpayer. Using a basic production function approach, the marginal value of pollination services to these attributes is also extrapolated. The study discusses the implications of these findings and directions for related future research into the non-market value of pollination and other ecosystem services.

Location choices of multinational firms in Europe: the role of EU cohesion policy

Using data on 5509 foreign subsidiaries established in 50 regions of 8 EU countries over the period 1991–1999, we estimate a mixed logit model of the location choice of multinational firms in Europe. In particular, we focus on the role of EU Cohesion Policy in attracting foreign investors from both within and outside Europe. We find that, after controlling for the role of agglomeration economies as well as a number of other regional and country characteristics and allowing for a very flexible correlation pattern among choices, Structural and Cohesion funds allocated by the EU to laggard regions have indeed contributed to attracting multinationals. These policies as well as other determinants play a different role in the case of European investors as opposed to non-European ones.

Langmuir turbulence and deeply penetrating jets in an unstratified mixed layer

The influence of surface waves and an applied wind stress is studied in an ensemble of large eddy simulations to investigate the nature of deeply penetrating jets into an unstratified mixed layer. The influence of a steady monochromatic surface wave propagating parallel to the wind direction is parameterized using the wave-filtered Craik-Leibovich equations. Tracer trajectories and instantaneous downwelling velocities reveal classic counterrotating Langmuir rolls. The associated downwelling jets penetrate to depths in excess of the wave's Stokes depth scale, δs. Qualitative evidence suggests the depth of the jets is controlled by the Ekman depth scale. Analysis of turbulent kinetic energy (tke) budgets reveals a dynamical distinction between Langmuir turbulence and shear-driven turbulence. In the former, tke production is dominated by Stokes shear and a vertical flux term transports tke to a depth where it is dissipated. In the latter, tke production is from the mean shear and is locally balanced by dissipation. We define the turbulent Langmuir number Lat = (v*/Us)0.5 (v* is the ocean's friction velocity and Us is the surface Stokes drift velocity) and a turbulent anisotropy coefficient Rt = /( + ). The transition between shear-driven and Langmuir turbulence is investigated by varying external wave parameters δs and Lat and by diagnosing Rt and the Eulerian mean and Stokes shears. When either Lat or δs are sufficiently small the Stokes shear dominates the mean shear and the flow is preconditioned to Langmuir turbulence and the associated deeply penetrating jets.

Characteristics of Langmuir Turbulence in the Ocean Mixed Layer

This study uses large-eddy simulation (LES) to investigate the characteristics of Langmuir turbulence through the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget. Based on an analysis of the TKE budget a velocity scale for Langmuir turbulence is proposed. The velocity scale depends on both the friction velocity and the surface Stokes drift associated with the wave field. The scaling leads to unique profiles of nondimensional dissipation rate and velocity component variances when the Stokes drift of the wave field is sufficiently large compared to the surface friction velocity. The existence of such a scaling shows that Langmuir turbulence can be considered as a turbulence regime in its own right, rather than a modification of shear-driven turbulence. Comparisons are made between the LES results and observations, but the lack of information concerning the wave field means these are mainly restricted to comparing profile shapes. The shapes of the LES profiles are consistent with observed profiles. The dissipation length scale for Langmuir turbulence is found to be similar to the dissipation length scale in the shear-driven boundary layer. Beyond this it is not possible to test the proposed scaling directly using available data. Entrainment at the base of the mixed layer is shown to be significantly enhanced over that due to normal shear turbulence.

Characterization and identification of mixed-metal phosphates in soils: the application, of Raman spectroscopy

The development of protocols for the identification of metal phosphates in phosphate-treated, metal-contaminated soils is a necessary yet problematical step in the validation of remediation schemes involving immobilization of metals as phosphate phases. The potential for Raman spectroscopy to be applied to the identification of these phosphates in soils has yet to be fully explored. With this in mind, a range of synthetic mixed-metal hydroxylapatites has been characterized and added to soils at known concentrations for analysis using both bulk X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and Raman spectroscopy. Mixed-metal hydroxylapatites in the binary series Ca-Cd, Ca-Pb, Ca-Sr and Cd-Pb synthesized in the presence of acetate and carbonate ions, were characterized using a range of analytical techniques including XRD, analytical scanning electron microscopy (SEM), infrared spectroscopy (IR), inductively coupled plasma-atomic emission spectrometry (ICP-AES) and Raman spectroscopy. Only the Ca-Cd series displays complete solid solution, although under the synthesis conditions of this study the Cd-5(PO4)(3)OH end member could not be synthesized as a pure phase. Within the Ca-Cd series the cell parameters, IR active modes and Raman active bands vary linearly as a function of Cd content. X-ray diffraction and extended X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS) suggest that the Cd is distributed across both the Ca(1) and Ca(2) sites, even at low Cd concentrations. In order to explore the likely detection limits for mixed-metal phosphates in soils for XRD and Raman spectroscopy, soils doped with mixed-metal hydroxylapatites at concentrations of 5, 1 and 0.5 wt.% were then studied. X-ray diffraction could not confirm unambiguously the presence or identity of mixed-metal phosphates in soils at concentrations below 5 wt.%. Raman spectroscopy proved a far more sensitive method for the identification of mixed-metal hydroxylapatites in soils, which could positively identify the presence of such phases in soils at all the dopant concentrations used in this study. Moreover, Raman spectroscopy could also provide an accurate assessment of the degree of chemical substitution in the hydroxylapatites even when present in soils at concentrations as low as 0.1%.

Coupled simulations of the Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation using a fine-resolution mixed-layer ocean model

The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Indian summer monsoon is dominated by a 30–50 day oscillation between “active” and “break” events of enhanced and reduced rainfall over the subcontinent, respectively. These organized convective events form in the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate north to India. Atmosphere–ocean coupled processes are thought to play a key role the intensity and propagation of these events. A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer-oceanmodel is assembled: HadKPP. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) and the K Profile Parameterization (KPP) mixed-layer ocean model. Following studies that upper-ocean vertical resolution and sub-diurnal coupling frequencies improve the simulation of ISV in SSTs, KPP is run at 1 m vertical resolution near the surface; the atmosphere and ocean are coupled every three hours. HadKPP accurately simulates the 30–50 day ISV in rainfall and SSTs over India and the Bay of Bengal, respectively, but suffers from low ISV on the equator. This is due to the HadAM3 convection scheme producing limited ISV in surface fluxes. HadKPP demonstrates little of the observed northward propagation of intraseasonal events, producing instead a standing oscillation. The lack of equatorial ISV in convection in HadAM3 constrains the ability of KPP to produce equatorial SST anomalies, which further weakens the ISV of convection. It is concluded that while atmosphere–ocean interactions are undoubtedly essential to an accurate simulation of ISV, they are not a panacea for model deficiencies. In regions where the atmospheric forcing is adequate, such as the Bay of Bengal, KPP produces SST anomalies that are comparable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) SST analyses in both their magnitude and their timing with respect to rainfall anomalies over India. HadKPP also displays a much-improved phase relationship between rainfall and SSTs over a HadAM3 ensemble forced by observed SSTs, when both are compared to observations. Coupling to mixed-layer models such as KPP has the potential to improve operational predictions of ISV, particularly when the persistence time of SST anomalies is shorter than the forecast lead time.

Comprehension of wh-questions in a case of mixed dementia

We investigated processing of wh-questions and declarative sentences with differing syntactic complexity in a case of mixed dementia (FA). FA was impaired in her ability to understand syntactically complex declarative sentences and syntactically complex wh-questions beginning with which but not complex who questions. This profile, novel in dementia, is similar to that reported for people with agrammatic aphasia and discerns a ‘‘fault line’’ of the language system along a syntactic/semantic parameter