Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Spectacular foodscapes: food celebrities and the politics of lifestyle mediation in an age of inequality

This editorial introduces a special issue of Food, Culture & Society and works to add a parallel, substantive take on the phenomenon of the food celebrity and the mediated, everyday cultural politics they create. We start by exploring the concept of the foodscape. Specifically, we argue that food celebrities represent a fundamental component of contemporary foodscapes, how they “perform” and function, and the socio-material means by which they are produced. We then explore the key roles and privileges of food celebrity, arguing that the celebrity chef is not the only high-profile, mediating figure at work on the foodscape. Key food celebrity paradoxes are identified and discussed: food celebrities must work to be authentic and aspirational, accessible yet exclusive, responsibilizing but also empowering. We conclude with a short contextualization of the papers in this special issue, and argue for the rich potential of food celebrity scholarship as a way to better understand food inequalities

The reproductive response of rams to thyroidectomy: mediation by impaired inhibin feedback rather than a change in LH pulsatility

A series of experiments was conducted to examine the mechanism by which removal of the thyroid glands in seasonally suppressed rams brings about rapid testicular growth. In the first experiment, thyroidectomy at the nadir of the testicular cycle (late winter) initiated testis growth without any detectable change in the extent of spermatogenesis compared with sham-operated controls. The serum concentration of FSH, but not LH, was also markedly increased by thyroidectomy. In the second experiment, serum FSH concentration was again increased by thyroidectomy in late winter but there was no effect of thyroidectomy on LH concentration, LH pulses (measured in frequent blood samples) or testosterone concentration. Furthermore, there was no evidence of a change in central dopaminergic inhibition of GnRH, as measured by the pulsatile LH response to an i.m. injection of the dopaminergic D-2 agonist bromocriptine or antagonist sulpiride. The rapid increase in FSH concentration occurred despite a markedly increased serum inhibin A concentration in thyroidectomized rams. Therefore, the efficacy of inhibin feedback was examined by testing the FSH-suppressive effect of an inhibin preparation (5 ml charcoal-stripped bovine follicular fluid i.v.) in long-term thyroidectomized and thyroid intact castrated rams. Bovine follicular fluid suppressed FSH concentrations in control rams as expected but in marked contrast, was completely without effect in thyroidectomized animals. In castrated rams, the FSH concentration was only marginally increased by thyroidectomy, indicating that there is a major component of the mediation of the effects of thyroidectomy that is testicular in origin. It was concluded that a reduction in the ability of endogenous inhibin to inhibit FSH release at the pituitary, rather than a hypothalamic mechanism, is the primary cause of the stimulation of testis growth by thyroidectomy.

Radically open-dialectical behavior therapy for adult anorexia nervosa: feasibility and outcomes from an inpatient program

Background Anorexia Nervosa (AN) is a highly life-threatening disorder that is extremely difficult to treat. There is evidence that family-based therapies are effective for adolescent AN, but no treatment has been proven to be clearly effective for adult AN. The methodological challenges associated with studying the disorder have resulted in recommendations that new treatments undergo preliminary testing prior to being evaluated in a randomized clinical trial. The aim of this study was to provide preliminary evidence on the effectiveness of a treatment program based on a novel adaptation of Dialectical Behavior Therapy (DBT) for adult Anorexia Nervosa (Radically Open-DBT; RO-DBT) that conceptualizes AN as a disorder of overcontrol. Methods Forty-seven individuals diagnosed with Anorexia Nervosa-restrictive type (AN-R; mean admission body mass index = 14.43) received the adapted DBT inpatient program (mean length of treatment = 21.7 weeks). Results Seventy-two percent completed the treatment program demonstrating substantial increases in body mass index (BMI; mean change in BMI = 3.57) corresponding to a large effect size (d = 1.91). Thirty-five percent of treatment completers were in full remission, and an additional 55% were in partial remission resulting in an overall response rate of 90%. These same individuals demonstrated significant and large improvements in eating-disorder related psychopathology symptoms (d = 1.17), eating disorder-related quality of life (d = 1.03), and reductions in psychological distress (d = 1.34). Conclusions RO-DBT was associated with significant improvements in weight gain, reductions in eating disorder symptoms, decreases in eating-disorder related psychopathology and increases in eating disorder-related quality of life in a severely underweight sample. These findings provide preliminary support for RO-DBT in treating AN-R suggesting the importance of further evaluation examining long-term outcomes using randomized controlled trial methodology.

The method of least squares used to invert an orbit problem

Six parameters uniquely describe the orbit of a body about the Sun. Given these parameters, it is possible to make predictions of the body's position by solving its equation of motion. The parameters cannot be directly measured, so they must be inferred indirectly by an inversion method which uses measurements of other quantities in combination with the equation of motion. Inverse techniques are valuable tools in many applications where only noisy, incomplete, and indirect observations are available for estimating parameter values. The methodology of the approach is introduced and the Kepler problem is used as a real-world example. (C) 2003 American Association of Physics Teachers.

Bayesian analysis of correlated evolution of discrete characters by reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo

We describe a Bayesian method for investigating correlated evolution of discrete binary traits on phylogenetic trees. The method fits a continuous-time Markov model to a pair of traits, seeking the best fitting models that describe their joint evolution on a phylogeny. We employ the methodology of reversible-jump ( RJ) Markov chain Monte Carlo to search among the large number of possible models, some of which conform to independent evolution of the two traits, others to correlated evolution. The RJ Markov chain visits these models in proportion to their posterior probabilities, thereby directly estimating the support for the hypothesis of correlated evolution. In addition, the RJ Markov chain simultaneously estimates the posterior distributions of the rate parameters of the model of trait evolution. These posterior distributions can be used to test among alternative evolutionary scenarios to explain the observed data. All results are integrated over a sample of phylogenetic trees to account for phylogenetic uncertainty. We implement the method in a program called RJ Discrete and illustrate it by analyzing the question of whether mating system and advertisement of estrus by females have coevolved in the Old World monkeys and great apes.

Cost-benefit evaluation of routine influenza immunisation in people 65-74 years of age

OBJECTIVES: To determine the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in people aged 65-74 years in the absence of co-morbidity. DESIGN: Primary research: randomised controlled trial. SETTING: Primary care. PARTICIPANTS: People without risk factors for influenza or contraindications to vaccination were identified from 20 general practitioner (GP) practices in Liverpool in September 1999 and invited to participate in the study. There were 5875/9727 (60.4%) people aged 65-74 years identified as potentially eligible and, of these, 729 (12%) were randomised. INTERVENTION: Participants were randomised to receive either influenza vaccine or placebo (ratio 3:1), with all individuals receiving pneumococcal vaccine unless administered in the previous 10 years. Of the 729 people randomised, 552 received vaccine and 177 received placebo; 726 individuals were administered pneumococcal vaccine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES AND METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC EVALUATION: GP attendance with influenza-like illness (ILI) or pneumonia (primary outcome measure); or any respiratory symptoms; hospitalisation with a respiratory illness; death; participant self-reported ILI; quality of life (QoL) measures at 2, 4 and 6 months post-study vaccination; adverse reactions 3 days after vaccination. A cost-effectiveness analysis was undertaken to identify the incremental cost associated with the avoidance of episodes of influenza in the vaccination population and an impact model was used to extrapolate the cost-effectiveness results obtained from the trial to assess their generalisability throughout the NHS. RESULTS: In England and Wales, weekly consultations for influenza and ILI remained at baseline levels (less than 50 per 100,000 population) until week 50/1999 and then increased rapidly, peaking during week 2/2000 with a rate of 231/100,000. This rate fell within the range of 'higher than expected seasonal activity' of 200-400/100,000. Rates then quickly declined, returning to baseline levels by week 5/2000. The predominant circulating strain during this period was influenza A (H3N2). Five (0.9%) people in the vaccine group were diagnosed by their GP with an ILI compared to two (1.1%) in the placebo group [relative risk (RR), 0.8; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.16 to 4.1]. No participants were diagnosed with pneumonia by their GP and there were no hospitalisations for respiratory illness in either group. Significantly fewer vaccinated individuals self-reported a single ILI (4.6% vs 8.9%, RR, 0.51; 95% CI for RR, 0.28 to 0.96). There was no significant difference in any of the QoL measurements over time between the two groups. Reported systemic side-effects showed no significant differences between groups. Local side-effects occurred with a significantly increased incidence in the vaccine group (11.3% vs 5.1%, p = 0.02). Each GP consultation avoided by vaccination was estimated from trial data to generate a net NHS cost of 174 pounds. CONCLUSIONS: No difference was seen between groups for the primary outcome measure, although the trial was underpowered to demonstrate a true difference. Vaccination had no significant effect on any of the QoL measures used, although vaccinated individuals were less likely to self-report ILI. The analysis did not suggest that influenza vaccination in healthy people aged 65-74 years would lead to lower NHS costs. Future research should look at ways to maximise vaccine uptake in people at greatest risk from influenza and also the level of vaccine protection afforded to people from different age and socio-economic populations.

The BOLD response during Stroop task-like inhibition paradigms: effects of task difficulty and task-relevant modality

Previous studies of the Stroop task propose two key mediators: the prefrontal and cingulate cortices but hints exist of functional specialization within these regions. This study aimed to examine the effect of task modality upon the prefrontal and cingulate response by examining the response to colour, number, and shape Stroop tasks whilst BOLD fMRI images were acquired on a Siemens 3 T MRI scanner. Behavioural analyses indicated facilitation and interference effects and a noticeable effect of task difficulty. Some modular effects of modality were observed in the prefrontal cortex that survived exclusion of task difficulty related activations. No effect of task-relevant information was observed in the anterior cingulate. Future comparisons of the mediation of selective attention need to consider the effects of task context and task difficulty. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part I: Literature review

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasingly complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I) reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develops conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to building simulation scientists, initiates a dialogue and builds bridges between scientists and engineers, and stimulates future research about a wide range of issues on building environmental systems.

Integration of chaos theory and mathematical models in building simulation: Part II: Conceptual frameworks

Current mathematical models in building research have been limited in most studies to linear dynamics systems. A literature review of past studies investigating chaos theory approaches in building simulation models suggests that as a basis chaos model is valid and can handle the increasing complexity of building systems that have dynamic interactions among all the distributed and hierarchical systems on the one hand, and the environment and occupants on the other. The review also identifies the paucity of literature and the need for a suitable methodology of linking chaos theory to mathematical models in building design and management studies. This study is broadly divided into two parts and presented in two companion papers. Part (I), published in the previous issue, reviews the current state of the chaos theory models as a starting point for establishing theories that can be effectively applied to building simulation models. Part (II) develop conceptual frameworks that approach current model methodologies from the theoretical perspective provided by chaos theory, with a focus on the key concepts and their potential to help to better understand the nonlinear dynamic nature of built environment systems. Case studies are also presented which demonstrate the potential usefulness of chaos theory driven models in a wide variety of leading areas of building research. This study distills the fundamental properties and the most relevant characteristics of chaos theory essential to (1) building simulation scientists and designers (2) initiating a dialogue between scientists and engineers, and (3) stimulating future research on a wide range of issues involved in designing and managing building environmental systems.

FACSGen: a tool to synthesize emotional facial expressions through systematic manipulation of facial action units

To investigate the perception of emotional facial expressions, researchers rely on shared sets of photos or videos, most often generated by actor portrayals. The drawback of such standardized material is a lack of flexibility and controllability, as it does not allow the systematic parametric manipulation of specific features of facial expressions on the one hand, and of more general properties of the facial identity (age, ethnicity, gender) on the other. To remedy this problem, we developed FACSGen: a novel tool that allows the creation of realistic synthetic 3D facial stimuli, both static and dynamic, based on the Facial Action Coding System. FACSGen provides researchers with total control over facial action units, and corresponding informational cues in 3D synthetic faces. We present four studies validating both the software and the general methodology of systematically generating controlled facial expression patterns for stimulus presentation.