Detection of faults in a high speed packaging machine using a multilayer perceptron (MLP)

In high speed manufacturing systems, continuous operation is desirable, with minimal disruption for repairs and service. An intelligent diagnostic monitoring system, designed to detect developing faults before catastrophic failure, or prior to undesirable reduction in output quality, is a good means of achieving this. Artificial neural networks have already been found to be of value in fault diagnosis of machinery. The aim here is to provide a system capable of detecting a number of faults, in order that maintenance can be scheduled in advance of sudden failure, and to reduce the necessity to replace parts at intervals based on mean time between failures. Instead, parts will need to be replaced only when necessary. Analysis of control information in the form of position error data from two servomotors is described.

Minimum recovery time between reactive hyperemia stimulus in the repeated measurement of brachial flow-mediated dilatation.

The ability to undertake repeat measurements of flow-mediated dilatation (FMD) within a short time of a previous measurement would be useful to improve accuracy or to repeat a failed initial procedure. Although standard methods report that a minimum of 10 min is required between measurements, there is no published data to support this. Thirty healthy volunteers had five FMD measurements performed within a 2-h period, separated by various time intervals (5, 15 and 30 min). In 19 volunteers, FMD was also performed as soon as the vessel had returned to its baseline diameter. There was no significant difference between any of the FMD measurements or parameters across the visits indicating that repeat measurements may be taken after a minimum of 5 min or as soon as the vessel has returned to its baseline diameter, which in some subjects may be less than 5 min.

The impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and automated dispensing system on the ward pharmacist’s time and activities

Objective To assess the impact of a closed-loop electronic prescribing and automated dispensing system on the time spent providing a ward pharmacy service and the activities carried out. Setting Surgical ward, London teaching hospital. Method All data were collected two months pre- and one year post-intervention. First, the ward pharmacist recorded the time taken each day for four weeks. Second, an observational study was conducted over 10 weekdays, using two-dimensional work sampling, to identify the ward pharmacist's activities. Finally, medication orders were examined to identify pharmacists' endorsements that should have been, and were actually, made. Key findings Mean time to provide a weekday ward pharmacy service increased from 1 h 8 min to 1 h 38 min per day (P = 0.001; unpaired t-test). There were significant increases in time spent prescription monitoring, recommending changes in therapy/monitoring, giving advice or information, and non-productive time. There were decreases for supply, looking for charts and checking patients' own drugs. There was an increase in the amount of time spent with medical and pharmacy staff, and with 'self'. Seventy-eight per cent of patients' medication records could be assessed for endorsements pre- and 100% post-intervention. Endorsements were required for 390 (50%) of 787 medication orders pre-intervention and 190 (21%) of 897 afterwards (P < 0.0001; chi-square test). Endorsements were made for 214 (55%) of endorsement opportunities pre-intervention and 57 (30%) afterwards (P < 0.0001; chi-square test). Conclusion The intervention increased the overall time required to provide a ward pharmacy service and changed the types of activity undertaken. Contact time with medical and pharmacy staff increased. There was no significant change in time spent with patients. Fewer pharmacy endorsements were required post-intervention, but a lower percentage were actually made. The findings have important implications for the design, introduction and use of similar systems.

Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Design and analysis of climate model experiments for the efficient estimation of anthropogenic signals

Presented herein is an experimental design that allows the effects of several radiative forcing factors on climate to be estimated as precisely as possible from a limited suite of atmosphere-only general circulation model (GCM) integrations. The forcings include the combined effect of observed changes in sea surface temperatures, sea ice extent, stratospheric (volcanic) aerosols, and solar output, plus the individual effects of several anthropogenic forcings. A single linear statistical model is used to estimate the forcing effects, each of which is represented by its global mean radiative forcing. The strong colinearity in time between the various anthropogenic forcings provides a technical problem that is overcome through the design of the experiment. This design uses every combination of anthropogenic forcing rather than having a few highly replicated ensembles, which is more commonly used in climate studies. Not only is this design highly efficient for a given number of integrations, but it also allows the estimation of (nonadditive) interactions between pairs of anthropogenic forcings. The simulated land surface air temperature changes since 1871 have been analyzed. The changes in natural and oceanic forcing, which itself contains some forcing from anthropogenic and natural influences, have the most influence. For the global mean, increasing greenhouse gases and the indirect aerosol effect had the largest anthropogenic effects. It was also found that an interaction between these two anthropogenic effects in the atmosphere-only GCM exists. This interaction is similar in magnitude to the individual effects of changing tropospheric and stratospheric ozone concentrations or to the direct (sulfate) aerosol effect. Various diagnostics are used to evaluate the fit of the statistical model. For the global mean, this shows that the land temperature response is proportional to the global mean radiative forcing, reinforcing the use of radiative forcing as a measure of climate change. The diagnostic tests also show that the linear model was suitable for analyses of land surface air temperature at each GCM grid point. Therefore, the linear model provides precise estimates of the space time signals for all forcing factors under consideration. For simulated 50-hPa temperatures, results show that tropospheric ozone increases have contributed to stratospheric cooling over the twentieth century almost as much as changes in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

Zinc metabolism in pregnant and lactating rats and the effect of varying iron: Zn in the diet

Pregnant rats were given control (46 mg iron/kg, 61 mg zinc/kg), low-Zn (6.9 mg Zn/kg) or low-Zn plus Fe (168 mg Fe/kg) diets from day 1 of pregnancy. The animals were allowed to give birth and parturition times recorded. Exactly 24 h after the end of parturition the pups were killed and analysed for water, fat, protein, Fe and Zn contents and the mothers' haemoglobin (Hb) and packed cell volume (PCV) were measured. There were no differences in weight gain or food intakes throughout pregnancy. Parturition times were similar (mean time 123 (SE 15) min) and there were no differences in the number of pups born. Protein, water and fat contents of the pups were similar but the low-Zn Fe-supplemented group had higher pup Fe than the low-Zn unsupplemented group, and the control group had higher pup Zn than both the low-Zn groups. The low-Zn groups had a greater incidence of haemorrhaged or deformed pups, or both, than the controls. Pregnant rats were given diets of adequate Zn level (40 mg/kg) but with varying Fe:Zn (0.8, 1.7, 2.9, 3.7). Zn retention from the diet was measured using 65Zn as an extrinsic label on days 3, 10 and 17 of pregnancy with a whole-body gamma-counter. A group of non-pregnant rats was also included as controls. The 65Zn content of mothers and pups was measured 24-48 h after birth and at 14, 21 and 24 d of age. In all groups Zn retention was highest from the first meal, fell in the second meal and then rose in the third meal of the pregnant but not the non-pregnant rats. There were no differences between the groups given diets of varying Fe:Zn level. Approximately 25% of the 65Zn was transferred from the mothers to the pups by the time they were 48 h old, and a further 17% during the first 14 d of lactation. The pup 65Zn content did not significantly increase after the first 20 d of lactation but the maternal 65Zn level continued to fall gradually.

Time and the price impact of a trade

We use Hasbrouck's (1991) vector autoregressive model for prices and trades to empirically test and assess the role played by the waiting time between consecutive transactions in the process of price formation. We find that as the time duration between transactions decreases, the price impact of trades, the speed of price adjustment to trade‐related information, and the positive autocorrelation of signed trades all increase. This suggests that times when markets are most active are times when there is an increased presence of informed traders; we interpret such markets as having reduced liquidity.

SPARC Data Initiative: A comparison of ozone climatologies from international satellite limb sounders

A comprehensive quality assessment of the ozone products from 18 limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed intercomparison. The ozone climatologies in form of monthly zonal mean time series covering the upper troposphere to lower mesosphere are obtained from LIMS, SAGE I/II/III, UARS-MLS, HALOE, POAM II/III, SMR, OSIRIS, MIPAS, GOMOS, SCIAMACHY, ACE-FTS, ACE-MAESTRO, Aura-MLS, HIRDLS, and SMILES within 1978–2010. The intercomparisons focus on mean biases of annual zonal mean fields, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles. Additionally, the physical consistency of the data is tested through diagnostics of the quasi-biennial oscillation and Antarctic ozone hole. The comprehensive evaluations reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric ozone mean state is smallest in the tropical and midlatitude middle stratosphere with a 1σ multi-instrument spread of less than ±5%. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the stratosphere, individual discrepancies have been identified, including unrealistic month-to-month fluctuations, large biases in particular atmospheric regions, or inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Notable differences between the data sets exist in the tropical lower stratosphere (with a spread of ±30%) and at high latitudes (±15%). In particular, large relative differences are identified in the Antarctic during the time of the ozone hole, with a spread between the monthly zonal mean fields of ±50%. The evaluations provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of ozone variability, model-measurement comparisons, detection of long-term trends, and data-merging activities.

Abrupt CO2 experiments as tools for predicting and understanding CMIP5 representative concentration pathway projections

A fast simple climate modelling approach is developed for predicting and helping to understand general circulation model (GCM) simulations. We show that the simple model reproduces the GCM results accurately, for global mean surface air temperature change and global-mean heat uptake projections from 9 GCMs in the fifth coupled model inter-comparison project (CMIP5). This implies that understanding gained from idealised CO2 step experiments is applicable to policy-relevant scenario projections. Our approach is conceptually simple. It works by using the climate response to a CO2 step change taken directly from a GCM experiment. With radiative forcing from non-CO2 constituents obtained by adapting the Forster and Taylor method, we use our method to estimate results for CMIP5 representative concentration pathway (RCP) experiments for cases not run by the GCMs. We estimate differences between pairs of RCPs rather than RCP anomalies relative to the pre-industrial state. This gives better results because it makes greater use of available GCM projections. The GCMs exhibit differences in radiative forcing, which we incorporate in the simple model. We analyse the thus-completed ensemble of RCP projections. The ensemble mean changes between 1986–2005 and 2080–2099 for global temperature (heat uptake) are, for RCP8.5: 3.8 K (2.3 × 1024 J); for RCP6.0: 2.3 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP4.5: 2.0 K (1.6 × 1024 J); for RCP2.6: 1.1 K (1.3 × 1024 J). The relative spread (standard deviation/ensemble mean) for these scenarios is around 0.2 and 0.15 for temperature and heat uptake respectively. We quantify the relative effect of mitigation action, through reduced emissions, via the time-dependent ratios (change in RCPx)/(change in RCP8.5), using changes with respect to pre-industrial conditions. We find that the effects of mitigation on global-mean temperature change and heat uptake are very similar across these different GCMs.

Do turning biases by the 7-spot ladybird, Coccinella septempunctata, increase their foraging efficiency?

The hypothesis that foraging male and female Coccinella septempunctata L. would exhibit a turning bias when walking along a branched linear wire in a Y-maze was tested. Individuals were placed repeatedly in the maze. Approximately 45% of all individuals tested displayed significant turning biases, with a similar number of individuals biased to the left and right. In the maze right-handed individuals turned right at 84.4% of turns and the left-handed individuals turned left at 80.2% of turns. A model of the searching efficiency of C. septempunctata in dichotomous branched environments showed that model coccinellids with greater turning biases discovered a higher proportion of the plant for a given number of searches than those with no bias. A modification of the model to investigate foraging efficiency, by calculating the mean time taken by individuals to find randomly distributed aphid patches, suggested that on four different sizes of plants, with a variety of aphid patch densities, implementing a turning bias was a significantly more efficient foraging strategy than no bias. In general the benefits to foraging of implementing a turning bias increased with the degree of the bias. It may be beneficial for individuals in highly complex branched environments to have a turning bias slightly lower than 100% in order to benefit from increased foraging efficiency without walking in circles. Foraging bias benefits increased with increasing plant size and decreasing aphid density. In comparisons of two different plant morphologies, one with a straight stem and side branches and one with a symmetrically branched morphology, there were few significant differences in the effects of turning biases on foraging efficiency between morphologies

The SPARC Data Initiative: comparisons of CFC-11, CFC-12, HF and SF6 climatologies from international satellite limb sounders

A quality assessment of the CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), HF, and SF6 products from limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed intercomparison. The climatologies in the form of monthly zonal mean time series are obtained from HALOE, MIPAS, ACE-FTS, and HIRDLS within the time period 1991–2010. The intercomparisons focus on the mean biases of the monthly and annual zonal mean fields and aim to identify their vertical, latitudinal and temporal structure. The CFC evaluations (based on MIPAS, ACE-FTS and HIRDLS) reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 mean state, as given by satellite data sets, is smallest in the tropics and mid-latitudes at altitudes below 50 and 20 hPa, respectively, with a 1σ multi-instrument spread of up to ±5 %. For HF, the situation is reversed. The two available data sets (HALOE and ACE-FTS) agree well above 100 hPa, with a spread in this region of ±5 to ±10 %, while at altitudes below 100 hPa the HF annual mean state is less well known, with a spread ±30 % and larger. The atmospheric SF6 annual mean states derived from two satellite data sets (MIPAS and ACE-FTS) show only very small differences with a spread of less than ±5 % and often below ±2.5 %. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (CFCs, SF6) or middle stratosphere (HF), individual discrepancies have been identified. Pronounced deviations between the instrument climatologies exist for particular atmospheric regions which differ from gas to gas. Notable features are differently shaped isopleths in the subtropics, deviations in the vertical gradients in the lower stratosphere and in the meridional gradients in the upper troposphere, and inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Additionally, long-term drifts between the instruments have been identified for the CFC-11 and CFC-12 time series. The evaluations as a whole provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of atmospheric transport and variability, model–measurement comparisons and detection of long-term trends. The data sets will be publicly available from the SPARC Data Centre and through PANGAEA (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849223).

The Soil: Nature, Sustainable Use, Management, and Protection - An Overview

Soil forms the outer skin of the earth's land surface. Often less than a metre in depth, it is essential to sustain natural terrestrial ecosystems and human life. Soils result from the interactions over time between climate, parent material, topography, vegetation, and biota. They vary from place to place. Mineral soils are composed of mineral matter, organic matter, and gas- or liquid-filled pores in varying proportions. Soils perform a wide range of functions and provide many ecosystem or environmental services; with the climate problem, the soil is increasingly being recognised as a potential sink for carbon from the atmosphere. In part because of humankind's (over)use of soils and in part because of natural and human-induced environmental change, there is a widespread decline in soil quality and an increasing number of threats to soil, which jeopardise both the soil's natural functions and its use by humans. As a limited resource, soils must be used sustainably. Soil protection strategies have been indirectly embodied in a number of United Nations conventions, and there are now national and supranational developments towards specific regulations and legislation to protect soils and their functions.

The effects of a short-term increase in supplementation on the reproduction performance in lactating crossbred dairy cows

The hypothesis that dairy cows partially suckling their calves would ovulate following removal of calves when restored to positive energy balance by a short-term increase in supplementation was investigated in 65 crossbred cows. Five treatments (T1, T2, T3, T4, and T5) that differed in the amount of total concentrate fed from calving to week 24 were involved. Calves were allowed to suck residual milk to 12 weeks of age. Energy balance was estimated by measuring intake, milk yield and organic matter digestibility. The occurrence of ovulation was determined by the analysis of milk progesterone (P4) concentration. Four groups that were receiving additional supplementation were restored to positive energy balance, while the control group (T I) remained in negative energy balance. The percentage of cows ovulating was 36%, 58%, 92%, 90% and 60% for T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5, respectively (P = 0.026). Comparison of the timing of ovulation for combined results from T1+T2 and T3+T4+T5 estimated mean time to fail to ovulate as 110 +/- 9.0 and 87 +/- 7.6 days, respectively (p = 0.023). The percentage of the cows showing oestrus was 9%, 8%, 33%, 40% and 40% for T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5, respectively (P = 0.197). Short-term increases in supplementation are unlikely to be an attractive means of reducing calving intervals.

Low molecular weight heparin significantly reduces embolisation after carotid endarterectomy - a randomised controller trial

Objectives The administration of unfractionated heparin (UFH) prior to carotid clamping during carotid endarterectomy (CEA) transiently increases the platelet aggregation response to arachidonic acid (AA) despite the use of aspirin. We hypothesized that this phenomenon might be reduced by using low molecular weight heparin (LMWH) resulting in fewer emboli in the early post-operative period. Methods 183 aspirinated patients undergoing CEA were randomised to 5000 IU UFH (n = 91) or 2500 IU LMWH (dalteparin, n = 92) prior to carotid clamping. End-points were: transcranial Doppler (TCD) measurement of embolisation, effect on bleeding and platelet aggregation to AA and adenosine 5′-diphosphate (ADP). Results Patients randomised to UFH had twice the odds of experiencing a higher number of emboli in the first 3 h after CEA, than those randomised to LMWH (p = 0.04). This was not associated with increased bleeding (mean time from flow restoration to operation end: 23 min (UFH) vs. 24 min (LMWH), p = 0.18). Platelet aggregation to AA increased significantly following heparinisation, but was unaffected by heparin type (p = 0.90). The platelets of patients randomised to LMWH exhibited significantly lower aggregation to ADP compared to UFH (p < 0.0001). Conclusions Intravenous LMWH is associated with a significant reduction in post-operative embolisation without increased bleeding. The higher rate of embolisation seen with UFH may be mediated by increased platelet aggregation to ADP, rather than to AA.

Apical leaf necrosis as a defence mechanism against pathogen attack: effects of high nutrient availability on onset and rate of necrosis

An outdoor experiment was conducted to increase understanding of apical leaf necrosis in the presence of pathogen infection. Holcus lanatus seeds and Puccinia coronata spores were collected from two adjacent and otherwise similar habitats with differing long-term N fertilization levels. After inoculation, disease and necrosis dynamics were observed during the plant growing seasons of 2003 and 2006. In both years high nutrient availability resulted in earlier disease onset, a higher pathogen population growth rate, earlier physiological apical leaf necrosis onset and a reduced time between disease onset and apical leaf necrosis onset. Necrosis rate was shown to be independent of nutrient availability. The results showed that in these nutrient-rich habitats H. lanatus plants adopted necrosis mechanisms which wasted more nutrients. There was some indication that these necrosis mechanisms were subject to local selection pressures, but these results were not conclusive. The findings of this study are consistent with apical leaf necrosis being an evolved defence mechanism.