How well do high resolution models reproduce tropical convection?

Cascade is a multi-institution project studying the temporal and spatial organization of tropical convective systems. While cloud resolving numerical models can reproduce the observed diurnal cycle of such systems they are sensitive to the chosen resolution. As part of this effort, we are comparing results from the Met. Office Unified Model to data from the Global Earth Radiation Budget satellite instrument over the African Monsoon Interdisciplinary Analyses region of North Africa. We use a variety of mathematical techniques to study the outgoing radiation and the evolution of properties such as the cloud size distribution. The effectiveness of various model resolutions is tested with a view to determining the optimum balance between resolution and the need to reproduce the observations.

Absolute high spectral resolution measurements of surface solar radiation for detection of water vapour continuum absorption

Solar-pointing Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy offers the capability to measure both the fine scale and broadband spectral structure of atmospheric transmission simultaneously across wide spectral regions. It is therefore suited to the study of both water vapour monomer and continuum absorption behaviours. However, in order to properly address this issue, it is necessary to radiatively calibrate the FTIR instrument response. A solar-pointing high-resolution FTIR spectrometer was deployed as part of the ‘Continuum Absorption by Visible and Infrared radiation and its Atmospheric Relevance’ (CAVIAR) consortium project. This paper describes the radiative calibration process using an ultra-high-temperature blackbody and the consideration of the related influence factors. The result is a radiatively calibrated measurement of the solar irradiation at the ground across the IR region from 2000 to 10 000 cm−1 with an uncertainty of between 3.3 and 5.9 per cent. This measurement is shown to be in good general agreement with a radiative-transfer model. The results from the CAVIAR field measurements are being used in ongoing studies of atmospheric absorbers, in particular the water vapour continuum.

Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score

References (20)Cited By (1)Export CitationAboutAbstract Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.

RMetS special interest group meeting: high resolution data assimilation

Data assimilation (DA) systems are evolving to meet the demands of convection-permitting models in the field of weather forecasting. On 19 April 2013 a special interest group meeting of the Royal Meteorological Society brought together UK researchers looking at different aspects of the data assimilation problem at high resolution, from theory to applications, and researchers creating our future high resolution observational networks. The meeting was chaired by Dr Sarah Dance of the University of Reading and Dr Cristina Charlton-Perez from the MetOffice@Reading. The purpose of the meeting was to help define the current state of high resolution data assimilation in the UK. The workshop assembled three main types of scientists: observational network specialists, operational numerical weather prediction researchers and those developing the fundamental mathematical theory behind data assimilation and the underlying models. These three working areas are intrinsically linked; therefore, a holistic view must be taken when discussing the potential to make advances in high resolution data assimilation.

The counter-propagating Rossby-wave perspective on baroclinic instability. I: Mathematical basis

It is shown that Bretherton's view of baroclinic instability as the interaction of two counter-propagating Rossby waves (CRWs) can be extended to a general zonal flow and to a general dynamical system based on material conservation of potential vorticity (PV). The two CRWs have zero tilt with both altitude and latitude and are constructed from a pair of growing and decaying normal modes. One CRW has generally large amplitude in regions of positive meridional PV gradient and propagates westwards relative to the flow in such regions. Conversely, the other CRW has large amplitude in regions of negative PV gradient and propagates eastward relative to the zonal flow there. Two methods of construction are described. In the first, more heuristic, method a ‘home-base’ is chosen for each CRW and the other CRW is defined to have zero PV there. Consideration of the PV equation at the two home-bases gives ‘CRW equations’ quantifying the evolution of the amplitudes and phases of both CRWs. They involve only three coefficients describing the mutual interaction of the waves and their self-propagation speeds. These coefficients relate to PV anomalies formed by meridional fluid displacements and the wind induced by these anomalies at the home-bases. In the second method, the CRWs are defined by orthogonality constraints with respect to wave activity and energy growth, avoiding the subjective choice of home-bases. Using these constraints, the same form of CRW equations are obtained from global integrals of the PV equation, but the three coefficients are global integrals that are not so readily described by ‘PV-thinking’ arguments. Each CRW could not continue to exist alone, but together they can describe the time development of any flow whose initial conditions can be described by the pair of growing and decaying normal modes, including the possibility of a super-modal growth rate for a short period. A phase-locking configuration (and normal-mode growth) is possible only if the PV gradient takes opposite signs and the mean zonal wind and the PV gradient are positively correlated in the two distinct regions where the wave activity of each CRW is concentrated. These are easily interpreted local versions of the integral conditions for instability given by Charney and Stern and by Fjørtoft.

Tropical cyclones in a T159 Resolution Global Climate Model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the 3-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortex to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with reanalyses (ERA40 and JRA25) and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to ENSO with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the center over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The overestimation in 2 the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over prediction in the intensity of monsoon depressions, which are then classified as intense tropical storms. Nevertheless, overall results are encouraging and will further contribute to increased confidence in simulating intense tropical storms with high-resolution climate models.

Use of airborne remote sensing to detect riverside Brassica rapa to aid in risk assessment of transgenic crops

High resolution descriptions of plant distribution have utility for many ecological applications but are especially useful for predictive modelling of gene flow from transgenic crops. Difficulty lies in the extrapolation errors that occur when limited ground survey data are scaled up to the landscape or national level. This problem is epitomized by the wide confidence limits generated in a previous attempt to describe the national abundance of riverside Brassica rapa (a wild relative of cultivated rapeseed) across the United Kingdom. Here, we assess the value of airborne remote sensing to locate B. rapa over large areas and so reduce the need for extrapolation. We describe results from flights over the river Nene in England acquired using Airborne Thematic Mapper (ATM) and Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) imagery, together with ground truth data. It proved possible to detect 97% of flowering B. rapa on the basis of spectral profiles. This included all stands of plants that occupied >2m square (>5 plants), which were detected using single-pixel classification. It also included very small populations (<5 flowering plants, 1-2m square) that generated mixed pixels, which were detected using spectral unmixing. The high detection accuracy for flowering B. rapa was coupled with a rather large false positive rate (43%). The latter could be reduced by using the image detections to target fieldwork to confirm species identity, or by acquiring additional remote sensing data such as laser altimetry or multitemporal imagery.

Detection of flood extent in urban areas using high resolution TerraSAR-X data

Flooding is a major hazard in both rural and urban areas worldwide, but it is in urban areas that the impacts are most severe. An investigation of the ability of high resolution TerraSAR-X data to detect flooded regions in urban areas is described. An important application for this would be the calibration and validation of the flood extent predicted by an urban flood inundation model. To date, research on such models has been hampered by lack of suitable distributed validation data. The study uses a 3m resolution TerraSAR-X image of a 1-in-150 year flood near Tewkesbury, UK, in 2007, for which contemporaneous aerial photography exists for validation. The DLR SETES SAR simulator was used in conjunction with airborne LiDAR data to estimate regions of the TerraSAR-X image in which water would not be visible due to radar shadow or layover caused by buildings and taller vegetation, and these regions were masked out in the flood detection process. A semi-automatic algorithm for the detection of floodwater was developed, based on a hybrid approach. Flooding in rural areas adjacent to the urban areas was detected using an active contour model (snake) region-growing algorithm seeded using the un-flooded river channel network, which was applied to the TerraSAR-X image fused with the LiDAR DTM to ensure the smooth variation of heights along the reach. A simpler region-growing approach was used in the urban areas, which was initialized using knowledge of the flood waterline in the rural areas. Seed pixels having low backscatter were identified in the urban areas using supervised classification based on training areas for water taken from the rural flood, and non-water taken from the higher urban areas. Seed pixels were required to have heights less than a spatially-varying height threshold determined from nearby rural waterline heights. Seed pixels were clustered into urban flood regions based on their close proximity, rather than requiring that all pixels in the region should have low backscatter. This approach was taken because it appeared that urban water backscatter values were corrupted in some pixels, perhaps due to contributions from side-lobes of strong reflectors nearby. The TerraSAR-X urban flood extent was validated using the flood extent visible in the aerial photos. It turned out that 76% of the urban water pixels visible to TerraSAR-X were correctly detected, with an associated false positive rate of 25%. If all urban water pixels were considered, including those in shadow and layover regions, these figures fell to 58% and 19% respectively. These findings indicate that TerraSAR-X is capable of providing useful data for the calibration and validation of urban flood inundation models.

A calibrated, non-invasive method for measuring the internal interface height field at high resolution in the rotating, two-layer annulus

We describe a remote sensing method for measuring the internal interface height field in a rotating, two-layer annulus laboratory experiment. The method is non-invasive, avoiding the possibility of an interaction between the flow and the measurement device. The height fields retrieved are accurate and highly resolved in both space and time. The technique is based on a flow visualization method developed by previous workers, and relies upon the optical rotation properties of the working liquids. The previous methods returned only qualitative interface maps, however. In the present study, a technique is developed for deriving quantitative maps by calibrating height against the colour fields registered by a camera which views the flow from above. We use a layer-wise torque balance analysis to determine the equilibrium interface height field analytically, in order to derive the calibration curves. With the current system, viewing an annulus of outer radius 125 mm and depth 250 mm from a distance of 2 m, the inferred height fields have horizontal, vertical and temporal resolutions of up to 0.2 mm, 1 mm and 0.04 s, respectively.