Quantifying uncertainty in critical loads: (A) literature review

Critical loads are the basis for policies controlling emissions of acidic substances in Europe. The implementation of these policies involves large expenditures, and it is reasonable for policymakers to ask what degree of certainty can be attached to the underlying critical load and exceedance estimates. This paper is a literature review of studies which attempt to estimate the uncertainty attached to critical loads. Critical load models and uncertainty analysis are briefly outlined. Most studies have used Monte Carlo analysis of some form to investigate the propagation of uncertainties in the definition of the input parameters through to uncertainties in critical loads. Though the input parameters are often poorly known, the critical load uncertainties are typically surprisingly small because of a "compensation of errors" mechanism. These results depend on the quality of the uncertainty estimates of the input parameters, and a "pedigree" classification for these is proposed. Sensitivity analysis shows that some input parameters are more important in influencing critical load uncertainty than others, but there have not been enough studies to form a general picture. Methods used for dealing with spatial variation are briefly discussed. Application of alternative models to the same site or modifications of existing models can lead to widely differing critical loads, indicating that research into the underlying science needs to continue.

The Dark Monarch: magic and modernity in British art

This major curated exhibition, publication and events builds on Rowlands’ curatorial research. Working in collaboration with co-curators Martin Clark, Artistic Director, Tate St Ives and Michael Bracewell, cultural historian, the exhibition sought to explore new narratives within British art. The innovative curatorial methodology developed from a fiction found in the infamous novel, The Dark Monarch by Sven Berlin, Gallery Press 1962. The research sought specific archival and collection work that allowed thematic strands to emerge that represented influences across generations. The exhibition features two-hundred artworks, from the Tate Collection, archives and other significant British public and private collections. It examines the development of early Modernism, in the UK, as well as the reappearance of esoteric and arcane references in a significant strand of contemporary art practice. Historical works from Samuel Palmer, Graham Sutherland, Henry Moore and Paul Nash are shown alongside contemporary artists including Derek Jarman, Cerith Wyn Evans, Eva Rothschild, Linder and John Russell. The exhibition includes a key work by Damien Hirst ¬ the first time he has been shown at Tate St Ives and a number of contemporary commissions. The Dark Monarch publication extended the discourse of the research critically examining the tension between progressive modernity and romantic knowledge, the book focuses on the way that artworks are encoded with various histories - geological, mythical and magical. Essays examine magic as a counterpoint to modernity’s transparency and rational progress, but also draw out the links modernity has with notions such as fetishism, mana, totem, and the taboo. Often viewed as counter to Modernism, this collection of essays suggest that these products of illusion and delusion in fact belong to modernity. Drawing together 15 different writers commissioned to explore magic as a counterpoint of liberal understanding of modernity, drawing out links that modernity has with notions of fetish, taboo and occult philosophy. Including essays by Marina Warner, Ilsa Colsell, Philip Hoare, Chris Stephens, Jennifer Higgie and Morrissey.

Associations between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality: a critical review of the literature

The effects of the anomalously warm European summer of 2003 highlighted the importance of understanding the relationship between elevated atmospheric temperature and human mortality. This review is an extension of the brief evidence examining this relationship provided in the IPCC’s Assessment Reports. A comprehensive and critical review of the literature is presented, which highlights avenues for further research, and the respective merits and limitations of the methods used to analyse the relationships. In contrast to previous reviews that concentrate on the epidemiological evidence, this review acknowledges the inter-disciplinary nature of the topic and examines the evidence presented in epidemiological, environmental health, and climatological journals. As such, present temperature–mortality relationships are reviewed, followed by a discussion of how these are likely to change under climate change scenarios. The importance of uncertainty, and methods to include it in future work, are also considered.

Libraries and literature in Rome

A chapter of 6,000 words on books, literary culture, and public and private libraries in the ancient city of Rome