Geostatistical Tools for Validation of Satellite and NWP Model Rainfall

An ensemble approach to uncertainty estimation for satellite-based rainfall estimates

Factors affecting potassium leaching in different soils

A set of lysimeter based experiments was carried out during 2000/01 to evaluate the impact of soil type and grassland management on potassium (K) leaching. The effects of (1) four soil textures (sand, loam, loam over chalk and clay), (2) grazing and cutting (with farmyard manure application), and (3) K applied as inorganic fertilizer, dairy slurry or a mixture of both sources were tested. Total K losses in the clay soil were more than twice those in the sand soil (13 and 6 kg K ha(-1), respectively) because of the development of preferential flow in the clay soil. They were also greater in the cut treatment than in the grazed treatment (82 and 51 kg K ha(-1), respectively; P less than or equal to0.01), associated with a 63% increase of K concentration in the leachates from the former (6.7 +/- 0.28 and 4.1 +/- 0.22 mg K L-1 for cut and grazed, respectively; P less than or equal to0.01) because of the K input from the farmyard manure. The source of fertilizer did not affect total K losses or the average K concentration in the leachates (P >0.05), but it changed the pattern of these over time.

Potassium leaching in undisturbed soil cores following surface applications of gypsum

Displacement studies on leaching of potassium (K+) were conducted under unsaturated steady state flow conditions in nine undisturbed soil columns (15.5 cm in diameter and 25 cm long). Pulses of K+ applied to columns of undisturbed soil were leached with distilled water or calcium chloride (CaCl2) at a rate of 18 mm h(-1). The movement of K+ in gypsum treated soil leached with distilled water was at a similar rate to that of the untreated soil leached with 15 mM CaCl2. The Ca2+ concentrations in the leachates were about 15 mM, the expected values for the dissolution of the gypsum. When applied K+ was displaced with the distilled water, K+ was retained in the top 10-12.5 cm depth of soil. In the undisturbed soil cores there is possibility of preferential flow and lack of K+ sorption. The application of gypsum and CaCl2 in the reclamation of sodic soils would be expected to leach K+ from soils. It can also be concluded that the use of sources of water for irrigation which have a high Ca2+ concentration can also lead to leaching of K+ from soil. Average effluent concentration of K+ during leaching period was 30.2 and 28.6 mg l(-1) for the gypsum and CaCl2 treated soils, respectively. These concentrations are greater than the recommended guideline of the World Health Organisation (12 mg K+ l(-1)).

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP)

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.