The implications of projected climate change for freshwater resources and their management

A review of the implications of climate change for freshwater resources, based on Chapter 4 of Working Group 2, IPCC.

Rational conversion of substrate and product specificity in a Salvia monoterpene synthase: structural insights into the evolution of terpene synthase function

Terpene synthases are responsible for the biosynthesis of the complex chemical defense arsenal of plants and microorganisms. How do these enzymes, which all appear to share a common terpene synthase fold, specify the many different products made almost entirely from one of only three substrates? Elucidation of the structure of 1,8-cineole synthase from Salvia fruticosa (Sf-CinS1) combined with analysis of functional and phylogenetic relationships of enzymes within Salvia species identified active-site residues responsible for product specificity. Thus, Sf-CinS1 was successfully converted to a sabinene synthase with a minimum number of rationally predicted substitutions, while identification of the Asn side chain essential for water activation introduced 1,8-cineole and alpha-terpineol activity to Salvia pomifera sabinene synthase. A major contribution to product specificity in Sf-CinS1 appears to come from a local deformation within one of the helices forming the active site. This deformation is observed in all other mono- or sesquiterpene structures available, pointing to a conserved mechanism. Moreover, a single amino acid substitution enlarged the active-site cavity enough to accommodate the larger farnesyl pyrophosphate substrate and led to the efficient synthesis of sesquiterpenes, while alternate single substitutions of this critical amino acid yielded five additional terpene synthases.

Investigating the effects of predator removal and habitat management on nest success and breeding population size of a farmland passerine: a case study

Passerines are especially vulnerable to predation at the pre-independence stage. Although the role of nest success in British farmland passerine declines is contentious, improvement in nest success through sympathetic management could play a role in their reversal. Because habitat is known to interact with predation, management options for mitigation will need to consider effects of nest predation. We present results from an observational study of a population of Common Blackbird Turdus merula on a farm which has experienced a range of agri-environment and game-management options, including a period with nest predator control, as a case study to address some of these issues. We used an information theoretic model comparison procedure to look for evidence of interactions between habitat and nest predation, and then asked whether habitat management and nest predator abundances could explain population trends at the site through their effects on nest success. Interactions were detected between measures of predator abundance and habitat variables, and these varied with nest stage - habitat within the vicinity of the nest appeared to be important at the egg stage, and nest-placement characteristics were important at the nestling stage. Although predator control appeared to have a positive influence on Blackbird breeding population size, the non-experimental set-up meant we could not eliminate other potential explanations. Variation in breeding population size did not appear to be influenced by variation in nest success alone. Our study demonstrates that observational data can only go so far in detection of such effects, and we discuss how it might be taken further. Agri-environment and game-management techniques are likely to influence nest predation pressure on farmland passerines, but the patterns, mechanisms and importance to population processes remain not wholly understood.

Investigating the effects of predator removal and habitat management on nest success and breeding population size of a farmland passerine: a case study

Passerines are especially vulnerable to predation at the pre-independence stage. Although the role of nest success in British farmland passerine declines is contentious, improvement in nest success through sympathetic management could play a role in their reversal. Because habitat is known to interact with predation, management options for mitigation will need to consider effects of nest predation. We present results from an observational study of a population of Common Blackbird Turdus merula on a farm which has experienced a range of agri-environment and game-management options, including a period with nest predator control, as a case study to address some of these issues. We used an information theoretic model comparison procedure to look for evidence of interactions between habitat and nest predation, and then asked whether habitat management and nest predator abundances could explain population trends at the site through their effects on nest success. Interactions were detected between measures of predator abundance and habitat variables, and these varied with nest stage - habitat within the vicinity of the nest appeared to be important at the egg stage, and nest-placement characteristics were important at the nestling stage. Although predator control appeared to have a positive influence on Blackbird breeding population size, the non-experimental set-up meant we could not eliminate other potential explanations. Variation in breeding population size did not appear to be influenced by variation in nest success alone. Our study demonstrates that observational data can only go so far in detection of such effects, and we discuss how it might be taken further. Agri-environment and game-management techniques are likely to influence nest predation pressure on farmland passerines, but the patterns, mechanisms and importance to population processes remain not wholly understood.

An assessment of the benefits and limitations of the shamba agroforestry system in Kenya and of management and policy requirements for its successful and sustainable reintroduction

The shamba system involves farmers tending tree saplings on state-owned forest land in return for being permitted to intercrop perennial food crops until canopy closure. At one time the system was used throughout all state-owned forest lands in Kenya, accounting for a large proportion of some 160,000 ha. The system should theoretically be mutually beneficial to both local people and the government. However the system has had a chequered past in Kenya due to widespread malpractice and associated environmental degradation. It was last banned in 2003 but in early 2008 field trials were initiated for its reintroduction. This study aimed to: assess the benefits and limitations of the shamba system in Kenya; assess the main influences on the extent to which the limitations and benefits are realised and; consider the management and policy requirements for the system's successful and sustainable operation. Information was obtained from 133 questionnaires using mainly open ended questions and six participatory workshops carried out in forest-adjacent communities on the western slopes of Mount Kenya in Nyeri district. In addition interviews were conducted with key informants from communities and organisations. There was strong desire amongst local people for the system's reintroduction given that it had provided significant food, income and employment. Local perceptions of the failings of the system included firstly mismanagement by government or forest authorities and secondly abuse of the system by shamba farmers and outsiders. Improvements local people considered necessary for the shamba system to work included more accountability and transparency in administration and better rules with respect to plot allocation and stewardship. Ninety-seven percent of respondents said they would like to be more involved in management of the forest and 80% that they were willing to pay for the use of a plot. The study concludes that the structural framework laid down by the 2005 Forests Act, which includes provision for the reimplementation of the shamba system under the new plantation establishment and livelihood improvement scheme (PELIS) [It should be noted that whilst the shamba system was re-branded in 2008 under the acronym PELIS, for the sake of simplicity the authors continue to refer to the 'shamba system' and 'shamba farmers' throughout this paper.], is weakened because insufficient power is likely to be devolved to local people, casting them merely as 'forest users' and the shamba system as a 'forest user right'. In so doing the system's potential to both facilitate and embody the participation of local people in forest management is limited and the long-term sustainability of the new system is questionable. Suggested instruments to address this include some degree of sharing of profits from forest timber, performance related guarantees for farmers to gain a new plot and use of joint committees consisting of local people and the forest authorities for long term management of forests.

Demographic models and the management of endangered species: a case study of the critically endangered Seychelles magpie robin

1. Demographic models are assuming an important role in management decisions for endangered species. Elasticity analysis and scope for management analysis are two such applications. Elasticity analysis determines the vital rates that have the greatest impact on population growth. Scope for management analysis examines the effects that feasible management might have on vital rates and population growth. Both methods target management in an attempt to maximize population growth. 2. The Seychelles magpie robin Copsychus sechellarum is a critically endangered island endemic, the population of which underwent significant growth in the early 1990s following the implementation of a recovery programme. We examined how the formal use of elasticity and scope for management analyses might have shaped management in the recovery programme, and assessed their effectiveness by comparison with the actual population growth achieved. 3. The magpie robin population doubled from about 25 birds in 1990 to more than 50 by 1995. A simple two-stage demographic model showed that this growth was driven primarily by a significant increase in the annual survival probability of first-year birds and an increase in the birth rate. Neither the annual survival probability of adults nor the probability of a female breeding at age 1 changed significantly over time. 4. Elasticity analysis showed that the annual survival probability of adults had the greatest impact on population growth. There was some scope to use management to increase survival, but because survival rates were already high (> 0.9) this had a negligible effect on population growth. Scope for management analysis showed that significant population growth could have been achieved by targeting management measures at the birth rate and survival probability of first-year birds, although predicted growth rates were lower than those achieved by the recovery programme when all management measures were in place (i.e. 1992-95). 5. Synthesis and applications. We argue that scope for management analysis can provide a useful basis for management but will inevitably be limited to some extent by a lack of data, as our study shows. This means that identifying perceived ecological problems and designing management to alleviate them must be an important component of endangered species management. The corollary of this is that it will not be possible or wise to consider only management options for which there is a demonstrable ecological benefit. Given these constraints, we see little role for elasticity analysis because, when data are available, a scope for management analysis will always be of greater practical value and, when data are lacking, precautionary management demands that as many perceived ecological problems as possible are tackled.

Oxidation of biogenic and water-soluble compounds in aqueous and organic aerosol droplets by ozone: a kinetic and product analysis approach using laser Raman tweezers

The results of an experimental study into the oxidative degradation of proxies for atmospheric aerosol are presented. We demonstrate that the laser Raman tweezers method can be used successfully to obtain uptake coeffcients for gaseous oxidants on individual aqueous and organic droplets, whilst the size and composition of the droplets is simultaneously followed. A laser tweezers system was used to trap individual droplets containing an unsaturated organic compound in either an aqueous or organic ( alkane) solvent. The droplet was exposed to gas- phase ozone and the reaction kinetics and products followed using Raman spectroscopy. The reactions of three different organic compounds with ozone were studied: fumarate anions, benzoate anions and alpha pinene. The fumarate and benzoate anions in aqueous solution were used to represent components of humic- like substances, HULIS; a alpha- pinene in an alkane solvent was studied as a proxy for biogenic aerosol. The kinetic analysis shows that for these systems the diffusive transport and mass accommodation of ozone is relatively fast, and that liquid- phase di. ffusion and reaction are the rate determining steps. Uptake coe. ffcients, g, were found to be ( 1.1 +/- 0.7) x 10(-5), ( 1.5 +/- 0.7) x 10 (-5) and ( 3.0 - 7.5) x 10 (-3) for the reactions of ozone with the fumarate, benzoate and a- pinene containing droplets, respectively. Liquid- phase bimolecular rate coe. cients for reactions of dissolved ozone molecules with fumarate, benzoate and a- pinene were also obtained: k(fumarate) = ( 2.7 +/- 2) x 10 (5), k(benzoate) = ( 3.5 +/- 3) x 10 (5) and k(alpha-pinene) = ( 1-3) x 10(7) dm(3) mol (-1) s (- 1). The droplet size was found to remain stable over the course of the oxidation process for the HULIS- proxies and for the oxidation of a- pinene in pentadecane. The study of the alpha- pinene/ ozone system is the first using organic seed particles to show that the hygroscopicity of the particle does not increase dramatically over the course of the oxidation. No products were detected by Raman spectroscopy for the reaction of benzoate ions with ozone. One product peak, consistent with aqueous carbonate anions, was observed when following the oxidation of fumarate ions by ozone. Product peaks observed in the reaction of ozone with alpha- pinene suggest the formation of new species containing carbonyl groups.