Climatic and oceanic associations with daily rainfall extremes over southern Africa

Changes in climate variability and, in particular, changes in extreme climate events are likely to be of far more significance for environmentally vulnerable regions than changes in the mean state. It is generally accepted that sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) play an important role in modulating rainfall variability. Consequently, SSTs can be prescribed in global and regional climate modelling in order to study the physical mechanisms behind rainfall and its extremes. Using a satellite-based daily rainfall historical data set, this paper describes the main patterns of rainfall variability over southern Africa, identifies the dates when extreme rainfall occurs within these patterns, and shows the effect of resolution in trying to identify the location and intensity of SST anomalies associated with these extremes in the Atlantic and southwest Indian Ocean. Derived from a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the results also suggest that, for the spatial pattern accounting for the highest amount of variability, extremes extracted at a higher spatial resolution do give a clearer indication regarding the location and intensity of anomalous SST regions. As the amount of variability explained by each spatial pattern defined by the PCA decreases, it would appear that extremes extracted at a lower resolution give a clearer indication of anomalous SST regions.

Interpretation bias and anxiety in childhood: stability, specificity and longitudinal associations

Background: Biases in the interpretation of ambiguous material are central to cognitive models of anxiety; however, understanding of the association between interpretation and anxiety in childhood is limited. To address this, a prospective investigation of the stability and specificity of anxious cognitions and anxiety and the relationship between these factors was conducted. Method: Sixty-five children (10–11 years) from a community sample completed measures of self-reported anxiety, depression, and conduct problems, and responded to ambiguous stories at three time points over one-year. Results: Individual differences in biases in interpretation of ambiguity (specifically “anticipated distress” and “threat interpretation”) were stable over time. Furthermore, anticipated distress and threat interpretation were specifically associated with anxiety symptoms. Distress anticipation predicted change in anxiety symptoms over time. In contrast, anxiety scores predicted change in threat interpretation over time. Conclusions: The results suggest that different cognitive constructs may show different longitudinal links with anxiety. These preliminary findings extend research and theory on anxious cognitions and their link with anxiety in children, and suggest that these cognitive processes may be valuable targets for assessment and intervention.

Intraindividual relations between achievement goals and discrete achievement emotions: an experience sampling approach

Theories on the link between achievement goals and achievement emotions focus on their within-person functional relationship (i.e., intraindividual relations). However, empirical studies have failed to analyze these intraindividual relations and have instead examined between-person covariation of the two constructs (i.e., interindividual relations). Aiming to better connect theory and empirical research, the present study (N = 120 10th grade students) analyzed intraindividual relations by assessing students’ state goals and emotions using experience sampling (N = 1,409 assessments within persons). In order to replicate previous findings on interindividual relations, students’ trait goals and emotions were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Despite being statistically independent, both types of relations were consistent with theoretical expectations, as shown by multi-level modeling: Mastery goals were positive predictors of enjoyment and negative predictors of boredom and anger; performance-approach goals were positive predictors of pride; and performance-avoidance goals were positive predictors of anxiety and shame. Reasons for the convergence of intra- and interindividual findings, directions for future research, and implications for educational practice are discussed.

Intake of total and subgroups of fat minimally affect the associations between selected single nucleotide polymorphisms in the PPARγ pathway and changes in anthropometry among European adults from cohorts of the DiOGenes study

BACKGROUND: Although the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ (PPARγ) pathway is central in adipogenesis, it remains unknown whether it influences change in body weight (BW) and whether dietary fat has a modifying effect on the association. OBJECTIVES: We examined whether 27 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 4 genes in the PPARγ pathway are associated with the OR of being a BW gainer or with annual changes in anthropometry and whether intake of total fat, monounsaturated fat, polyunsaturated fat, or saturated fat has a modifying effect on these associations. METHODS: A case-noncase study included 11,048 men and women from cohorts in the European Diet, Obesity and Genes study; 5552 were cases, defined as individuals with the greatest BW gain during follow-up, and 6548 were randomly selected, including 5496 noncases. We selected 4 genes [CCAAT/enhancer binding protein β (CEBPB), phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase 2, PPARγ gene (PPARG), and sterol regulatory element binding transcription factor 1] according to evidence about biologic plausibility for interactions with dietary fat in weight regulation. Diet was assessed at baseline, and anthropometry was followed for 7 y. RESULTS: The ORs for being a BW gainer for the 27 genetic variants ranged from 0.87 (95% CI: 0.79, 1.03) to 1.12 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.22) per additional minor allele. Uncorrected, CEBPB rs4253449 had a significant interaction with the intake of total fat and subgroups of fat. The OR for being a BW gainer for each additional rs4253449 minor allele per 100 kcal higher total fat intake was 1.07 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.12; P = 0.008), and similar associations were found for subgroups of fat. CONCLUSIONS: Among European men and women, the influence of dietary fat on associations between SNPs in the PPARγ pathway and anthropometry is likely to be absent or marginal. The observed interaction between rs4253449 and dietary fat needs confirmation.

Influence of south Atlantic sea surface temperatures on rainfall variability and extremes over southern Africa

It is generally agreed that changing climate variability, and the associated change in climate extremes, may have a greater impact on environmentally vulnerable regions than a changing mean. This research investigates rainfall variability, rainfall extremes, and their associations with atmospheric and oceanic circulations over southern Africa, a region that is considered particularly vulnerable to extreme events because of numerous environmental, social, and economic pressures. Because rainfall variability is a function of scale, high-resolution data are needed to identify extreme events. Thus, this research uses remotely sensed rainfall data and climate model experiments at high spatial and temporal resolution, with the overall aim being to investigate the ways in which sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies influence rainfall extremes over southern Africa. Extreme rainfall identification is achieved by the high-resolution microwave/infrared rainfall algorithm dataset. This comprises satellite-derived daily rainfall from 1993 to 2002 and covers southern Africa at a spatial resolution of 0.1° latitude–longitude. Extremes are extracted and used with reanalysis data to study possible circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall. Anomalously cold SSTs in the central South Atlantic and warm SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa seem to be statistically related to rainfall extremes. Further, through a number of idealized climate model experiments, it would appear that both decreasing SSTs in the central South Atlantic and increasing SSTs off the coast of southwestern Africa lead to a demonstrable increase in daily rainfall and rainfall extremes over southern Africa, via local effects such as increased convection and remote effects such as an adjustment of the Walker-type circulation.

Endocrine disrupters and human health: Could oestrogenic chemicals in body care cosmetics adversely affect breast cancer incidence in women? A review of evidence and call for further research

In the decade that has elapsed since the suggestion that exposure of the foetal/developing male to environmental oestrogens could be the cause of subsequent reproductive and developmental effects in men, there has been little definitive research to provide conclusions to the hypothesis. Issues of exposure and low potency of environmental oestrogens may have reduced concerns. However, the hypothesis that chemicals applied in body care cosmetics (including moisturizers, creams, sprays or lotions applied to axilla or chest or breast areas) may be affecting breast cancer incidence in women presents a different case scenario, not least in the consideration of the exposure issues. The specific cosmetic type is not relevant but the chemical ingredients in the formulations and the application to the skin is important. The most common group of body care cosmetic formulation excipients, namely p-hydroxybenzoic acid esters or parabens, have been shown recently to be oestrogenic in vitro and in vivo and now have been detected in human breast tumour tissue, indicating absorption (route and causal associations have yet to be confirmed). The hypothesis for a link between oestrogenic ingredients in underarm and body care cosmetics and breast cancer is forwarded and reviewed here in terms of. data on exposure to body care cosmetics and parabens, including dermal absorption; paraben oestrogenicity; the role of oestrogen in breast cancer; detection of parabens in breast tumours; recent epidemiology studies of underarm cosmetics use and breast cancer; the toxicology database; the current regulatory status of parabens and regulatory toxicology data uncertainties. Notwithstanding the major public health issue of the causes of the rising incidence of breast cancer in women, this call for further research may provide the first evidence that environmental factors may be adversely affecting human health by endocrine disruption, because exposure to oestrogenic chemicals through application of body care products (unlike diffuse environmental chemical exposures) should be amenable to evaluation, quantification and control. The exposure issues are clear and the exposed population is large, and these factors should provide the necessary impetus to investigate this potential issue of public health. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Analysis of protein networks in resting and collagen receptor (GPVI)-stimulated platelet sub-proteomes.

Proteomics approaches have made important contributions to the characterisation of platelet regulatory mechanisms. A common problem encountered with this method, however, is the masking of low-abundance (e.g. signalling) proteins in complex mixtures by highly abundant proteins. In this study, subcellular fractionation of washed human platelets either inactivated or stimulated with the glycoprotein (GP) VI collagen receptor agonist, collagen-related peptide, reduced the complexity of the platelet proteome. The majority of proteins identified by tandem mass spectrometry are involved in signalling. The effect of GPVI stimulation on levels of specific proteins in subcellular compartments was compared and analysed using in silico quantification, and protein associations were predicted using STRING (the search tool for recurring instances of neighbouring genes/proteins). Interestingly, we observed that some proteins that were previously unidentified in platelets including teneurin-1 and Van Gogh-like protein 1, translocated to the membrane upon GPVI stimulation. Newly identified proteins may be involved in GPVI signalling nodes of importance for haemostasis and thrombosis.

Geoarchaeology and taphonomy of plant remains in early urban environments in the Ancient Near East

A number of recent articles emphasize the fundamental importance of taphonomy and formation processes to interpretation of plant remains assemblages, as well as the value of interdisciplinary approaches to studies of environmental change and ecological and social practices. This paper examines ways in which micromorphology can contribute to integrating geoarchaeology and archaeobotany in analysis of the taphonomy and context of plant remains and ecological and social practices. Micromorphology enables simultaneous in situ study of diverse plant materials and thereby traces of a range of depositional pathways and histories. In addition to charred plant remains, also often preserved in semi-arid environments are plant impressions, phytoliths and calcitic ashes. These diverse plant remains are often routinely separated and extracted from their depositional context or lost using other analytical techniques, thereby losing crucial evidence on taphonomy, formation processes and contextual associations, which are fundamental to all subsequent interpretations. Although micromorphological samples are small in comparison to bulk flotation samples of charred plant remains, their size is similar to phytolith and pollen samples. In this paper, key taphonomic issues are examined in the study of: fuel; animal dung, animal management and penning; building materials; and specific activities, including food storage and preparation and ritual, using selected case-studies from early urban settlements in the Ancient Near East. Microarchaeological residues and experimental archaeology are also briefly examined.

Nutritional factors and gender influence age-related DNA methylation in the human rectal mucosa

Aberrant methylation of CpG islands (CGI) occurs in many genes expressed in colonic epithelial cells, and may contribute to the dysregulation of signalling pathways associated with carcinogenesis. This cross-sectional study assessed the relative importance of age, nutritional exposures and other environmental factors in the development of CGI methylation. Rectal biopsies were obtained from 185 individuals (84 male, 101 female) shown to be free of colorectal disease, and for whom measurements of age, body size, nutritional status and blood cell counts were available. We used quantitative DNA methylation analysis combined with multivariate modelling to investigate the relationships between nutritional, anthropometric and metabolic factors and the CGI methylation of 11 genes, together with LINE-1 as an index of global DNA methylation. Age was a consistent predictor of CGI methylation for 9/11 genes but significant positive associations with folate status and negative associations with vitamin D and selenium status were also identified for several genes. There was evidence for positive associations with blood monocyte levels and anthropometric factors for some genes. In general, CGI methylation was higher in males than in females and differential effects of age and other factors on methylation in males and females were identified. In conclusion, levels of age-related CGI methylation in the healthy human rectal mucosa are influenced by gender, the availability of folate, vitamin D and selenium, and perhaps by factors related to systemic inflammation

Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models

This paper aims to understand the physical processes causing the large spread in the storm track projections of the CMIP5 climate models. In particular, the relationship between the climate change responses of the storm tracks, as measured by the 2–6 day mean sea level pressure variance, and the equator-to-pole temperature differences at upper- and lower-tropospheric levels is investigated. In the southern hemisphere the responses of the upper- and lower-tropospheric temperature differences are correlated across the models and as a result they share similar associations with the storm track responses. There are large regions in which the storm track responses are correlated with the temperature difference responses, and a simple linear regression model based on the temperature differences at either level captures the spatial pattern of the mean storm track response as well explaining between 30 and 60 % of the inter-model variance of the storm track responses. In the northern hemisphere the responses of the two temperature differences are not significantly correlated and their associations with the storm track responses are more complicated. In summer, the responses of the lower-tropospheric temperature differences dominate the inter-model spread of the storm track responses. In winter, the responses of the upper- and lower-temperature differences both play a role. The results suggest that there is potential to reduce the spread in storm track responses by constraining the relative magnitudes of the warming in the tropical and polar regions.

Postpartum GAD is a risk factor for postpartum MDD: the course and longitudinal relationships of postpartum GAD and MDD

Background The objective was to examine the course and longitudinal associations of generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and major depressive disorder (MDD) in mothers over the postpartum 2 years. Method Using a prospective naturalistic design, 296 mothers recruited from a large community pool were assessed for GAD and MDD at 3, 6, 10, 14, and 24 months postpartum. Structured clinical interviews were used for diagnoses, and symptoms were assessed using self-report questionnaires. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine diagnostic stability and longitudinal relations, and latent variable modeling was employed to examine change in symptoms. Results MDD without co-occurring GAD, GAD without co-occurring MDD, and co-occurring GAD and MDD, displayed significant stability during the postpartum period. Whereas MDD did not predict subsequent GAD, GAD predicted subsequent MDD (in the form of GAD + MDD). Those with GAD + MDD at 3 months postpartum were significantly less likely to be diagnosis free during the follow-up period than those in other diagnostic categories. At the symptom level, symptoms of GAD were more trait-like than those of depression. Conclusions Postpartum GAD and MDD are relatively stable conditions, and GAD is a risk factor for MDD but not vice versa. Given the tendency of MDD and GAD to be persistent, especially when comorbid, and the increased risk for MDD in mothers with GAD, as well as the potential negative effects of cumulative exposure to maternal depression and anxiety on child development, the present findings clearly highlight the need for screening and treatment of GAD in addition to MDD during the postpartum period.

A Bayesian approach to disease gene location using allelic association

A Bayesian approach to analysing data from family-based association studies is developed. This permits direct assessment of the range of possible values of model parameters, such as the recombination frequency and allelic associations, in the light of the data. In addition, sophisticated comparisons of different models may be handled easily, even when such models are not nested. The methodology is developed in such a way as to allow separate inferences to be made about linkage and association by including theta, the recombination fraction between the marker and disease susceptibility locus under study, explicitly in the model. The method is illustrated by application to a previously published data set. The data analysis raises some interesting issues, notably with regard to the weight of evidence necessary to convince us of linkage between a candidate locus and disease.

Spectacle/gender/history: the case of Gone with the Wind

The essay asserts that, since pioneering work in the 1970s and 80s (in Screen in particular), the study of classical Hollywood cinema has failed adequately to acknowledge and understand the role of spectacle therein. This essay outlines theoretical but, even more, practical understandings of particular kinds of spectacle; they are susceptible to the practice of close analysis. Seeking to discuss spectacle in precise terms and in particular contexts, I define two kinds of spectacle associated with the historical film: ‘the decor of history’ and ‘the spectacular vista’. The example of Gone with the Wind illustrates the interrelationship between these two kinds of spectacle and their associations with particular ideas of femininity and masculinity. This gendering of spectacle is related to ‘the historical gaze’, a performative gesture that exemplifies the wider rhetoric of historical films, in their seeking to address the historical knowledge of the film spectator and to uphold a vision of history as being driven by powerful men, aware of their own destiny. Over the course of the three famous hilltop scenes in Gone with the Wind, one can plot Scarlett O'Hara's increased access to this kind of foresight and fortitude coded as ‘masculine’. This character arc can also be traced through Scarlett's shifting place within the film's use of spectacle: she begins the film wholly preoccupied with the domestic world of lavish parties and beautiful gowns; however, after her encounter with cataclysmic history visualized as a vast, terrible spectacle (the fall of Atlanta), Scarlett assumes the role occupied by her broken and emasculated father.