Interpreting the response of a dryland river system to Late Quaternary climate change

A U-series calcrete chronology has been constructed for three Late Quaternary terrace units, termed the D1, D2 and D3 terraces in age descending order, from the Rio Aguas river system of the Sorbas basin, southeast Spain. The D1 terrace formed between 30,300 +/- 4400 year BP and 12,140 +/- 360 year BP, correlating well with the Last Glacial Maximum when rates of sediment supply would have increased greatly, because of higher rates of weathering, reduced vegetation cover and weak soil development. The D2 terrace formed between 12,800 +/- 1100 year BP and 9,600 +/- 530 year BP, correlating well with the Younger Dryas event. The D3 terrace could only be poorly constrained to the early Holocene and no unequivocal cause could be assigned to this period of aggradation. The sedimentology and geomorphology of the D2 terrace suggests, however, that the aggradation of this unit was a response to diapirism/karstic processes occurring within the underlying Messinian gypsum strata and the subsequent damming of the Aguas system. Therefore, despite its coincident occurrence with the Younger Dryas, aggradation of the D2 terrace is unrelated to climate change. The style of this response, controlled predominantly by the characteristics of the underlying bedrock, makes correlating the terrace record of the Aguas with other systems in the Mediterranean unreliable. This study, therefore, highlights the problems of correlating fluvial sequences in regions of variable tectonics, climatic history and bedrock geology and emphasises the need to properly understand the main controls on individual fluvial systems before any attempt is made to correlate their depositional histories. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Putting the pieces back together again: an illustration of the problem of interpreting development indicators using an African case study

Indicators are commonly recommended as tools for assessing the attainment of development, and the current vogue is for aggregating a number of indicators together into a single index. It is claimed that such indices of development help facilitate maximum impact in policy terms by appealing to those who may not necessarily have technical expertise in data collection, analysis and interpretation. In order to help counter criticisms of over-simplification, those advocating such indices also suggest that the raw data be provided so as to allow disaggregation into component parts and hence facilitate a more subtle interpretation if a reader so desires. This paper examines the problems involved with interpreting indices of development by focusing on the United Nations Development Programmes (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI) published each year in the Human Development Reports (HDRs). The HDI was intended to provide an alternative to the more economic based indices, such as GDP, commonly used within neo-liberal development agendas. The paper explores the use of the HDI as a gauge of human development by making comparisons between two major political and economic communities in Africa (ECOWAS and SADC). While the HDI did help highlight important changes in human development as expressed by the HDI over 10 years, it is concluded that the HDI and its components are difficult to interpret as methodologies have changed significantly and the 'averaging' nature of the HDI could hide information unless care is taken. The paper discusses the applicability of alternative models to the HDI such as the more neo-populist centred methods commonly advocated for indicators of sustainable development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interpreting information about medication side effects: differences in risk perception and intention to comply when medicines are prescribed for adults or young children

This study investigates whether, and how, people's perception of risk and intended health behaviours are affected by whether a medicine is prescribed for themselves or for a young child. The question is relevant to the issue of whether it is beneficial to produce medicines information that is tailored to particular subgroups of the population, such as parents of young children. In the experiment, participants read scenarios which referred either to themselves or their (imagined) 1-year-old child, and were required to make a number of risk judgements. The results showed that both parents and non-parents were less satisfied, perceived side effects to be more severe and more likely to occur, risk to health to be higher, and said that they would be less likely to take (or give) the medicine when the recipient was the child. On the basis of the findings, it is suggested that it may well be beneficial to tailor materials to broader classes of patient type.

Interpreting at Vindolanda: commercial and linguistic mediation in the Roman army.

A fragmentary tablet from Vindolanda (Tab. Vindol. II, 213) contains an occurrence of the verb interpretari (‘interpret’, ‘explain’, ‘mediate’) in an apparently commercial context, relating to the grain supply for the Roman fort. This usage is paralleled in a text on a wooden stilus tablet from Frisia in the Netherlands. ‘Interpreters’ and their activities make rather infrequent appearances in the Latin epigraphic and documentary records. In the Danubian provinces, interpreters (interpretes) are attested as army officers and officials in the office of the provincial governor. ‘Interpreters’, in both Latin and Greek inscriptions and papyri, often, however, play more ambiguous roles, not always connected with language-mediation, but also, or instead, with mediation in commercial transactions

Interpreting Differential Temperature Trends at the Surface and in the Lower Troposphere

Estimated global-scale temperature trends at Earth's surface (as recorded by thermometers) and in the lower troposphere (as monitored by satellites) diverge by up to 0.14°C per decade over the period 1979 to 1998. Accounting for differences in the spatial coverage of satellite and surface measurements reduces this differential, but still leaves a statistically significant residual of roughly 0.1°C per decade. Natural internal climate variability alone, as simulated in three state-of-the-art coupled atmosphere-ocean models, cannot completely explain this residual trend difference. A model forced by a combination of anthropogenic factors and volcanic aerosols yields surface-troposphere temperature trend differences closest to those observed.

Simple uncertainty frameworks for selecting weighting schemes and interpreting multimodel ensemble climate change experiments

Future climate change projections are often derived from ensembles of simulations from multiple global circulation models using heuristic weighting schemes. This study provides a more rigorous justification for this by introducing a nested family of three simple analysis of variance frameworks. Statistical frameworks are essential in order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimate of the mean climate change response. The most general framework yields the “one model, one vote” weighting scheme often used in climate projection. However, a simpler additive framework is found to be preferable when the climate change response is not strongly model dependent. In such situations, the weighted multimodel mean may be interpreted as an estimate of the actual climate response, even in the presence of shared model biases. Statistical significance tests are derived to choose the most appropriate framework for specific multimodel ensemble data. The framework assumptions are explicit and can be checked using simple tests and graphical techniques. The frameworks can be used to test for evidence of nonzero climate response and to construct confidence intervals for the size of the response. The methodology is illustrated by application to North Atlantic storm track data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble. Despite large variations in the historical storm tracks, the cyclone frequency climate change response is not found to be model dependent over most of the region. This gives high confidence in the response estimates. Statistically significant decreases in cyclone frequency are found on the flanks of the North Atlantic storm track and in the Mediterranean basin.

Interpreting communication of people with profound and severe learning difficulties

The present paper highlights some of the issues involved in interpreting the communication behaviours of people with profound and multiple learning difficulties (PMLDs). Both inference and intention can play an important role in the communication process, and this raises a number of difficulties and dangers where one of the communication partners is not in a position to correct misunderstandings. The present authors discuss the importance of validating communication and pose a number of key questions to ask those who are most significant in the life of a person with PMLDs. A case study is provided that illustrates a number of these issues.