Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI)

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single ‘deterministic’ forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale,which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.

When smoke gets in our eyes: The multiple impacts of atmospheric black carbon on climate, air quality and health

With both climate change and air quality on political and social agendas from local to global scale, the links between these hitherto separate fields are becoming more apparent. Black carbon, largely from combustion processes, scatters and absorbs incoming solar radiation, contributes to poor air quality and induces respiratory and cardiovascular problems. Uncertainties in the amount, location, size and shape of atmospheric black carbon cause large uncertainty in both climate change estimates and toxicology studies alike. Increased research has led to new effects and areas of uncertainty being uncovered. Here we draw together recent results and explore the increasing opportunities for synergistic research that will lead to improved confidence in the impact of black carbon on climate change, air quality and human health. Topics of mutual interest include better information on spatial distribution, size, mixing state and measuring and monitoring. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Bureau International des Poids et Mesures: establishing standards in the physical sciences

In a vault on the outskirts of Paris, a cylinder of platinum-iridium sits in a safe under three layers of glass. It is the kilogram, kept by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM), which is the international home of metrology. Metrology is the science of measurement, and it is of fundamental importance to us all. It is essential for trade, commerce, navigation, transport, communication, surveying, engineering, and construction. It is essential for medical diagnosis and treatment, health and safety, food and consumer protection, and for preserving the environment—e.g., measuring ozone in the atmosphere. Many of these applications are of particular relevance to chemistry and thus to IUPAC. In all these activities we need to make measurements reliably—to an appropriate and known level of uncertainty. The financial implications of metrology are enormous. In the United States, for example, some 15% of the gross domestic product is spent on healthcare, involving reliable quantitative measurements for both diagnosis and treatment.

Unravelling the conundrum of tannins in animal nutrition and health

This paper examines the nutritional and veterinary effects of tannins on ruminants and makes some comparisons with non-ruminants. Tannin chemistry per se is not covered and readers are referred to several excellent reviews instead: (a) Okuda T et al. Heterocycles 30:1195-1218 (1990); (b) Ferreira D and Slade D. Nat Prod Rep 19:517-541 (2002); (c) Yoshida T et al. In Studies in Natural Product Chemistry. Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, pp. 395-453 (2000); (d) Khanbabaee K and van Ree T. Nat Prod Rep 18:641-649 (2001); (e) Okuda et al. Phytochemistvy 55:513-529 (2000). The effects of tannins on rumen micro-organisms are also not reviewed, as these have been addressed by others: (a) McSweeney CS et al. Anim Feed Sci Technol 91:83-93 (2001); (b) Smith AH and Mackie RI. Appl Environ Microbiol 70:1104-1115 (2004). This paper deals first with the nutritional effects of tannins in animal feeds, their qualitative and quantitative diversity, and the implications of tannin-protein complexation. It then summarises the known physiological and harmful effects and discusses the equivocal evidence of the bioavailability of tannins. Issues concerning tannin metabolism and systemic effects are also considered. Opportunities are presented on how to treat feeds with high tannin contents, and some lesser-known but successful feeding strategies are highlighted. Recent research has explored the use of tannins for preventing animal deaths from bloat, for reducing intestinal parasites and for lowering gaseous ammonia and methane emissions. Finally, several tannin assays and a hypothesis are discussed that merit further investigation in order to assess their suitability for predicting animal responses. The aim is to provoke discussion and spur readers into new approaches. An attempt is made to synthesise the emerging information for relating tannin structures with their activities. Although many plants with high levels of tannins produce negative effects and require treatments, others are very useful animal feeds. Our ability to predict whether tannin-containing feeds confer positive or negative effects will depend on interdisciplinary research between animal nutritionists and plant chemists. The elucidation of tannin structure-activity relationships presents exciting opportunities for future feeding strategies that will benefit ruminants and the environment within the contexts of extensive, semi-intensive and some intensive agricultural systems. (c) 2006 Society of Chemical Industry

Tannin-containing plants for animal nutrition and health

Abstract 13.12.1