Storm tracking and ensemble prediction

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) is investigated using a storm-tracking forecast verifica-tion methodology. The cyclones are identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories so that statistics can be generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted cyclones diverge from the corresponding analysed cyclones with forecast time. Overall the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of performance than the NCEP EPS. However, in the southern hemisphere the NCEP EPS has a slightly higher level of skill for the intensity of the storms. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. The results also illustrate several benefits an EPS can offer over a deterministic forecast.

Evaluating explanations about drug prescriptions: effects of varying the nature of information about side effects and its relative position in explanations

This study evaluates computer-generated written explanations about drug prescriptions that are based on an analysis of both patient and doctor informational needs. Three experiments examine the effects of varying the type of information given about the possible side effects of the medication, and the order of information within the explanation. Experiment 1 investigated the effects of these two factors on people's ratings of how good they consider the explanations to be and of their perceived likelihood of taking the medication, as well as on their memory for the information in the explanation. Experiment 2 further examined the effects of varying information about side effects by separating out the contribution of number and severity of side effects. It was found that participants in this study did not “like” explanations that described severe side effects, and also judged that they would be less likely to take the medication if given such explanations. Experiment 3 therefore investigated whether information about severe side effects could be presented in such a way as to increase judgements of how good explanations are thought to be, as well as the perceived likelihood of adherence. The results showed some benefits of providing additional explanatory information.

Searching efficiency and the functional response of a pause-travel forager

1. The feeding rates of many predators and parasitoids exhibit type II functional responses, with a decelerating rate of increase to reach an asymptotic value as the density of their prey or hosts increases. Holling's disc equation describes such relationships and predicts that the asymptotic feeding rate at high prey densities is set by handling time, while the rate at which feeding rate increases with increased prey density is determined by searching efficiency. Searching efficiency and handling time are also parameters in other models which describe the functional response. Models which incorporate functional responses in order to make predictions of the effects of food shortage thus rely upon a clear understanding and accurate quantification of searching efficiency and handling time. 2. Blackbird Turdus merula exhibit a type II functional response and use pause-travel foraging, a foraging technique in which animals search for prey while stationary and then move to capture prey. Pause-travel foraging allows accurate direct measurement of feeding rate and both searching efficiency and handling time. We use Blackbirds as a model species to: (i) compare observed measures of both searching efficiency and handling time with those estimated by statistically fitting the disc equation to the observed functional response; and (ii) investigate alternative measures of searching efficiency derived by the established method where search area is assumed to be circular and a new method that we propose where it is not. 3. We find that the disc equation can adequately explain the functional response of blackbirds feeding on artificial prey. However, this depends critically upon how searching efficiency is measured. Two variations on the previous method of measuring search area (a component of searching efficiency) overestimated searching efficiency, and hence predicted feeding rates higher than those observed. Two variations of our alternative approach produced lower estimates of searching efficiency, closer to that estimated by fitting the disc equation, and hence more accurately predicted feeding rate. Our study shows the limitations of the previous method of measuring searching efficiency, and describes a new method for measuring searching efficiency more accurately.

Cost-effectiveness of a preventive counseling and support package for postnatal depression

Objectives: This study reports the cost-effectiveness of a preventive intervention, consisting of counseling and specific support for the mother-infant relationship, targeted at women at high risk of developing postnatal depression. Methods: A prospective economic evaluation was conducted alongside a pragmatic randomized controlled trial in which women considered at high risk of developing postnatal depression were allocated randomly to the preventive intervention (n = 74) or to routine primary care (n = 77). The primary outcome measure was the duration of postnatal depression experienced during the first 18 months postpartum. Data on health and social care use by women and their infants up to 18 months postpartum were collected, using a combination of prospective diaries and face-to-face interviews, and then were combined with unit costs ( pound, year 2000 prices) to obtain a net cost per mother-infant dyad. The nonparametric bootstrap method was used to present cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and net benefit statistics at alternative willingness to pay thresholds held by decision makers for preventing 1 month of postnatal depression. Results: Women in the preventive intervention group were depressed for an average of 2.21 months (9.57 weeks) during the study period, whereas women in the routine primary care group were depressed for an average of 2.70 months (11.71 weeks). The mean health and social care costs were estimated at 2,396.9 pound per mother-infant dyad in the preventive intervention group and 2,277.5 pound per mother-infant dyad in the routine primary care group, providing a mean cost difference of 119.5 pound (bootstrap 95 percent confidence interval [Cl], -535.4, 784.9). At a willingness to pay threshold of 1,000 pound per month of postnatal depression avoided, the probability that the preventive intervention is cost-effective is .71 and the mean net benefit is 383.4 pound (bootstrap 95 percent Cl, -863.3- pound 1,581.5) pound. Conclusions: The preventive intervention is likely to be cost-effective even at relatively low willingness to pay thresholds for preventing 1 month of postnatal depression during the first 18 months postpartum. Given the negative impact of postnatal depression on later child development, further research is required that investigates the longer-term cost-effectiveness of the preventive intervention in high risk women.

The effects of a pre-movement delay on the kinematics of prehension in middle childhood

The present study examined the effects of a pre-movement delay on the kinematics of prehension in middle childhood. Twenty-five children between the ages of 5 and 11 years made visually open-loop reaches to two different sized objects at two different distances along the midline. Reaches took place either (i) immediately, or (ii) 2 s after the occlusion of the stimulus. In all age groups, reaches following the pre-movement delay were characterised by longer movement durations, lower peak velocities, larger peak grip apertures and longer time spent in the final slow phase of the movement. This pattern of results suggests that the representations that control the transport and grasp component are affected similarly by delay, and is consistent with the results previously reported for adults. Such representations therefore appear to develop before the age of 5. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time-resolved gas-phase kinetic, quantum chemical and RRKM studies of reactions of silylene with cyclic ethers

Time-resolved kinetic studies of silylene, SiH2, generated by laser flash photolysis of phenylsilane, have been carried out to obtain rate constants for its bimolecular reactions with oxirane, oxetane, and tetrahydrofuran (THF). The reactions were studied in the gas phase over the pressure range 1-100 Torr in SF6 bath gas, at four or five temperatures in the range 294-605 K. All three reactions showed pressure dependences characteristic of third-body-assisted association reactions with, surprisingly, SiH2 + oxirane showing the least and SiH2 + THF showing the most pressure dependence. The second-order rate constants obtained by extrapolation to the high-pressure limits at each temperature fitted the Arrhenius equations where the error limits are single standard deviations: log(k(oxirane)(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.03 +/- 0.07) + (5.70 +/- 0.51) kJ mol(-1)/RT In 10 log(k(oxetane)(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-11.17 +/- 0.11) + (9.04 +/- 0.78) kJ mol(-1)/RT In 10 log(k(THF)(infinity)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = (-10.59 +/- 0.10) + (5.76 +/- 0.65) kJ mol(-1)/RT In 10 Binding-energy values of 77, 97, and 92 kJ mol(-1) have been obtained for the donor-acceptor complexes of SiH2 with oxirane, oxetane, and THF, respectively, by means of quantum chemical (ab initio) calculations carried Out at the G3 level. The use of these values to model the pressure dependences of these reactions, via RRKM theory, provided a good fit only in the case of SiH2 + THF. The lack of fit in the other two cases is attributed to further reaction pathways for the association complexes of SiH2 with oxirane and oxetane. The finding of ethene as a product of the SiH2 + oxirane reaction supports a pathway leading to H2Si=O + C2H4 predicted by the theoretical calculations of Apeloig and Sklenak.

The diurnal cycle in the tropics

A global archive of high-resolution (3-hourly, 0.58 latitude–longitude grid) window (11–12 mm) brightness temperature (Tb) data from multiple satellites is being developed by the European Union Cloud Archive User Service (CLAUS) project. It has been used to construct a climatology of the diurnal cycle in convection, cloudiness, and surface temperature for all regions of the Tropics. An example of the application of the climatology to the evaluation of the climate version of the U.K. Met. Office Unified Model (UM), version HadAM3, is presented. The characteristics of the diurnal cycle described by the CLAUS data agree with previous observational studies, demonstrating the universality of the characteristics of the diurnal cycle for land versus ocean, clear sky versus convective regimes. It is shown that oceanic deep convection tends to reach its maximum in the early morning. Continental convection generally peaks in the evening, although there are interesting regional variations, indicative of the effects of complex land–sea and mountain–valley breezes, as well as the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems. A striking result from the analysis of the CLAUS data has been the extent to which the strong diurnal signal over land is spread out over the adjacent oceans, probably through gravity waves of varying depths. These coherent signals can be seen for several hundred kilometers and in some instances, such as over the Bay of Bengal, can lead to substantial diurnal variations in convection and precipitation. The example of the use of the CLAUS data in the evaluation of the Met. Office UM has demonstrated that the model has considerable difficulty in capturing the observed phase of the diurnal cycle in convection, which suggests some fundamental difficulties in the model’s physical parameterizations. Analysis of the diurnal cycle represents a powerful tool for identifying and correcting model deficiencies.

A robust mechanism for strengthening of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to climate change: critical-layer control of subtropical wave breaking

Climate models consistently predict a strengthened Brewer–Dobson circulation in response to greenhouse gas (GHG)-induced climate change. Although the predicted circulation changes are clearly the result of changes in stratospheric wave drag, the mechanism behind the wave-drag changes remains unclear. Here, simulations from a chemistry–climate model are analyzed to show that the changes in resolved wave drag are largely explainable in terms of a simple and robust dynamical mechanism, namely changes in the location of critical layers within the subtropical lower stratosphere, which are known from observations to control the spatial distribution of Rossby wave breaking. In particular, the strengthening of the upper flanks of the subtropical jets that is robustly expected from GHG-induced tropospheric warming pushes the critical layers (and the associated regions of wave drag) upward, allowing more wave activity to penetrate into the subtropical lower stratosphere. Because the subtropics represent the critical region for wave driving of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, the circulation is thereby strengthened. Transient planetary-scale waves and synoptic-scale waves generated by baroclinic instability are both found to play a crucial role in this process. Changes in stationary planetary wave drag are not so important because they largely occur away from subtropical latitudes.

Breaking the impasse: towards a new regime for international climate governance

The reality of the current international order makes it imperative that a just and effective climate regime balance the historical responsibility of developed countries with the increasing absolute emissions from many developing nations. In this short outlook article, key pillars are proposed for a new international climate architecture that envisions replacing the current annex system with two new annexes –Annex α, for countries with high current emissions and historically high emissions, and Annex β, for countries with high current emissions and historically low emissions. Countries in both annexes would implement legally binding targets under this framework. Additionally, this proposal includes tweaks and revisions to funding and technology transfer mechanisms to correct for weaknesses and inequities under the current Kyoto architecture. The proposed framework stems from a belief that a top-down, international approach to climate policy remains the most effective for ensuring environmental integrity. Given the slow rate of institutional learning, reforming and improving the current system is held as a more efficient course of action than abandoning the progress already achieved. It is argued that the proposed framework effectively accommodates key equity, environmental integrity and political feasibility concerns.

Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking as simulated by 15 atmospheric general circulation models in the period 1979-1988 (Results from an AMIP diagnostic subproject)

As a part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), the behaviour of 15 general circulation models has been analysed in order to diagnose and compare the ability of the different models in simulating Northern Hemisphere midlatitude atmospheric blocking. In accordance with the established AMIP procedure, the 10-year model integrations were performed using prescribed, time-evolving monthly mean observed SSTs spanning the period January 1979–December 1988. Atmospheric observational data (ECMWF analyses) over the same period have been also used to verify the models results. The models involved in this comparison represent a wide spectrum of model complexity, with different horizontal and vertical resolution, numerical techniques and physical parametrizations, and exhibit large differences in blocking behaviour. Nevertheless, a few common features can be found, such as the general tendency to underestimate both blocking frequency and the average duration of blocks. The problem of the possible relationship between model blocking and model systematic errors has also been assessed, although without resorting to ad-hoc numerical experimentation it is impossible to relate with certainty particular model deficiencies in representing blocking to precise parts of the model formulation.

The effect of salmon consumption during pregnancy on maternal and infant faecal microbiota, sIgA and calprotectin

The infant gut microbiota plays an important role in the development of the infant immune and gastrointestinal systems. We investigated whether increased salmon consumption during pregnancy, maternal weight gain during pregnancy or infant mode of feeding alter markers of gut immune defence and inflammation. Women (n = 123) who rarely ate oily fish were randomly assigned to remain on their habitual diet or to consume two 150 g portions of farmed salmon per week from 20 weeks pregnancy until delivery. At 38 weeks gestation the women (n = 75) provided a faecal sample and on days 7, 14, 28 and 84 post-partum, faecal samples were collected from the infants (n = 38). Fluorescence in situ hybridisation was used to determine the composition of the faecal microbiota and ELISA to measure faecal sIgA and calprotectin concentrations. There was no effect of salmon consumption on the faecal microbiota of the mothers or on faecal sIgA and calprotectin concentrations in either mothers or infants. Degree of weight gain influenced the maternal faecal microbiota and mode of infant feeding influenced the infant faecal microbiota. Faecal samples from infants in the salmon group tended to have lower counts of Atopobium cluster compared with those in the control group (P = 0.097). This difference was significant in formula-fed infants (P < 0.05), but not exclusively breast-fed infants. In conclusion, the impact of oily fish consumption during pregnancy on maternal and infant gut microbiota composition is limited, but significant differences were associated with maternal weight gain during pregnancy and infant mode of feeding.

The relationship between challenging parenting behaviour and childhood anxiety disorders

Background: This research investigates the relationship between challenging parenting behaviour and childhood anxiety disorders proposed by Bögels and Phares (2008). Challenging parenting behaviour involves the playful encouragement of children to go beyond their own limits, and may decrease children’s risk for anxiety (Bögels & Phares, 2008). Method: Parents (n = 164 mothers, 144 fathers) of 164 children aged between 3.4 and 4.8 years participated in the current study. A multi-method, multi-informant assessment of anxiety was used, incorporating data from diagnostic interviews as well as questionnaire measures. Parents completed self-report measures of their parenting behaviour (n = 147 mothers, 138 fathers) and anxiety (n = 154 mothers, 143 fathers). Mothers reported on their child’s anxiety via questionnaire as well as diagnostic interview (n = 156 and 164 respectively). Of these children, 74 met criteria for an anxiety disorder and 90 did not. Results: Fathers engaged in challenging parenting behaviour more often than mothers. Both mothers’ and fathers’ challenging parenting behaviour was associated with lower report of child anxiety symptoms. However, only mothers’ challenging parenting behaviour was found to predict child clinical anxiety diagnosis. Limitations: Shared method variance from mothers confined the interpretation of these results. Moreover, due to study design, it is not possible to delineate cause and effect. Conclusions: The finding with respect to maternal challenging parenting behaviour was not anticipated, prompting replication of these results. Future research should investigate the role of challenging parenting behaviour by both caregivers as this may have implications for parenting interventions for anxious children.