Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.

Parameter sensitivity and predictive uncertainty in a new water quality model, Q(2)

A new dynamic model of water quality, Q(2), has recently been developed, capable of simulating large branched river systems. This paper describes the application of a generalized sensitivity analysis (GSA) to Q(2) for single reaches of the River Thames in southern England. Focusing on the simulation of dissolved oxygen (DO) (since this may be regarded as a proxy for the overall health of a river); the GSA is used to identify key parameters controlling model behavior and provide a probabilistic procedure for model calibration. It is shown that, in the River Thames at least, it is more important to obtain high quality forcing functions than to obtain improved parameter estimates once approximate values have been estimated. Furthermore, there is a need to ensure reasonable simulation of a range of water quality determinands, since a focus only on DO increases predictive uncertainty in the DO simulations. The Q(2) model has been applied here to the River Thames, but it has a broad utility for evaluating other systems in Europe and around the world.

Parameter estimation using a particle method: inferring mixing coefficients from sea level observations

This paper presents a first attempt to estimate mixing parameters from sea level observations using a particle method based on importance sampling. The method is applied to an ensemble of 128 members of model simulations with a global ocean general circulation model of high complexity. Idealized twin experiments demonstrate that the method is able to accurately reconstruct mixing parameters from an observed mean sea level field when mixing is assumed to be spatially homogeneous. An experiment with inhomogeneous eddy coefficients fails because of the limited ensemble size. This is overcome by the introduction of local weighting, which is able to capture spatial variations in mixing qualitatively. As the sensitivity of sea level for variations in mixing is higher for low values of mixing coefficients, the method works relatively well in regions of low eddy activity.

The effects of environmental perturbation and measurement error on estimates of the shape parameter in the theta-logistic model of population regulation

The theta-logistic is a widely used generalisation of the logistic model of regulated biological processes which is used in particular to model population regulation. Then the parameter theta gives the shape of the relationship between per-capita population growth rate and population size. Estimation of theta from population counts is however subject to bias, particularly when there are measurement errors. Here we identify factors disposing towards accurate estimation of theta by simulation of populations regulated according to the theta-logistic model. Factors investigated were measurement error, environmental perturbation and length of time series. Large measurement errors bias estimates of theta towards zero. Where estimated theta is close to zero, the estimated annual return rate may help resolve whether this is due to bias. Environmental perturbations help yield unbiased estimates of theta. Where environmental perturbations are large, estimates of theta are likely to be reliable even when measurement errors are also large. By contrast where the environment is relatively constant, unbiased estimates of theta can only be obtained if populations are counted precisely Our results have practical conclusions for the design of long-term population surveys. Estimation of the precision of population counts would be valuable, and could be achieved in practice by repeating counts in at least some years. Increasing the length of time series beyond ten or 20 years yields only small benefits. if populations are measured with appropriate accuracy, given the level of environmental perturbation, unbiased estimates can be obtained from relatively short censuses. These conclusions are optimistic for estimation of theta. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V All rights reserved.

Liquid matrix deposition on conductive hydrophobic surfaces for tuning and quantitation in UV-MALDI mass spectrometry

With its highly fluctuating ion production matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) poses many practical challenges for its application in mass spectrometry. Instrument tuning and quantitative ion abundance measurements using ion signal alone depend on a stable ion beam. Liquid MALDI matrices have been shown to be a promising alternative to the commonly used solid matrices. Their application in areas where a stable ion current is essential has been discussed but only limited data have been provided to demonstrate their practical use and advantages in the formation of stable MALDI ion beams. In this article we present experimental data showing high MALDI ion beam stability over more than two orders of magnitude at high analytical sensitivity (low femtomole amount prepared) for quantitative peptide abundance measurements and instrument tuning in a MALDI Q-TOF mass spectrometer. Samples were deposited on an inexpensive conductive hydrophobic surface and shrunk to droplets <10 nL in size. By using a sample droplet <10 nL it was possible to acquire data from a single irradiated spot for roughly 10,000 shots with little variation in ion signal intensity at a laser repetition rate of 5-20 Hz.

Facile strategies for the synthesis and crystallization of linear trinuclear nickel(II)-Schiff base, complexes with carboxylate bridges: Tuning of coordination geometry and magnetic properties

Three new linear trinuclear nickel(II) complexes, [Ni-3(salpen)(2)(OAc)(2)(H2O)(2)]center dot 4H(2)O (1) (OAc = acetate, CH3COO-), [Ni-3(salpen)(2)(OBz)(2)] (2) (OBz=benzoate, PhCOO-) and [Ni-3(salpen)(2)(OCn)(2)(CH3CN)(2)] (4) (OCn = cinnamate, PhCH=CHCOO-), H(2)salpen = tetradentate ligand, N,N'-bis(salicylidene)-1,3-pentanediamine have been synthesized and characterized structurally and magnetically. The choice of solvent for growing single crystal was made by inspecting the morphology of the initially obtained solids with the help of SEM study. The magnetic properties of a closely related complex, [Ni-3(salpen)(2)(OPh)(2)(EtOH)] (3) (OPh = phenyl acetate, PhCH2COO-) whose structure and solution properties have been reported recently, has also been studied here. The structural analyses reveal that both phenoxo and carboxylate bridging are present in all the complexes and the three Ni(II) atoms remain in linear disposition. Although the Schiff base ligand and the syn-syn bridging bidentate mode of the carboxylate group remain the same in complexes 1-4, the change of alkyl/aryl group of the carboxylates brings about systematic variations between six- and five-coordination in the geometry of the terminal Ni(II) centres of the trinuclear units. The steric demand as well as hydrophobic nature of the alkyl/aryl group of the carboxylate is found to play a crucial role in the tuning of the geometry. Variable-temperature (2-300 K) magnetic susceptibility measurements show that complexes 1-4 are antiferromagnetically coupled (J = -3.2(1), -4.6(1). -3.2(1) and -2.8(1) cm(-1) in 1-4, respectively). Calculations of the zero-field splitting parameter indicate that the values of D for complexes 1-4 are in the high range (D = +9.1(2), +14.2(2), +9.8(2) and +8.6(1) cm(-1) for 1-4, respectively). The highest D value of +14.2(2) and +9.8(2) cm(-1) for complexes 2 and 3, respectively, are consistent with the pentacoordinated geometry of the two terminal nickel(II) ions in 2 and one terminal nickel(II) ion in 3. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Carbohydrate-based micelle clusters which enhance hydrophobic drug bioavailability by up to 1 order of magnitude

Amphiphilic chitosan-based polymers (M-w < 20 kDa) self-assemble in aqueous media at low micromolar concentrations to give previously unknown micellar clusters of 100-300 nm in size. Micellar clusters comprise smaller 10-30 nm aggregates, and the nanopolarity/drug incorporation efficiency of their hydrophobic domains can be tailored by varying the degree of lipidic derivatization and molecular weight of the carbohydrate. The extent of drug incorporation by these novel micellar clusters is 1 order of magnitude higher than is seen with triblock copolymers, with molar polymer/drug ratios of 1:48 to 1:67. On intravenous injection, the pharmacodynamic activity of a carbohydrate propofol formulation is increased by 1 order of magnitude when compared to a commercial emulsion formulation, and on topical ocular application of a carbohydrate prednisolone formulation, initial drug aqueous humor levels are similar to those found with a 10-fold dose of prednisolone suspension.

A swarm pattern transformation method based on macroscopic parameter operations

The work reported in this paper is motivated by biomimetic inspiration - the transformation of patterns. The major issue addressed is the development of feasible methods for transformation based on a macroscopic tool. The general requirement for the feasibility of the transformation method is determined by classifying pattern formation approaches an their characteristics. A formal definition for pattern transformation is provided and four special cases namely, elementary and geometric transformation based on repositioning all and some robotic agents are introduced. A feasible method for transforming patterns geometrically, based on the macroscopic parameter operation of a swarm is considered. The transformation method is applied to a swarm model which lends itself to the transformation technique. Simulation studies are developed to validate the feasibility of the approach, and do indeed confirm the approach.