Improved simulation of water vapour and clear-sky radiation using 24 hour forecasts from ERA40

Monthly mean water vapour and clear-sky radiation extracted from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) forecasts are assessed using satellite observations and additional reanalysis data. There is a marked improvement in the interannual variability of column-integrated water vapour (CWV) over the oceans when using the 24-hour forecasts compared with the standard 6-hour forecasts products. The spatial distribution of CWV are well simulated by the 6-hour forecasts; using the 24-hour forecasts does not degrade this simulation substantially and in many cases improves on the quality. There is also an improved simulation of clear-sky radiation from the 24-hour forecasts compared with the 6-hour forecasts based on comparison with satellite observations and empirical estimates. Further work is required to assess the quality of water vapour simulation by reanalyses over land regions. Over the oceans, it is recommended that 24-hour forecasts of CWV and clear-sky radiation are used in preference to the standard 6-hour forecast products from ERA40

Relationship between 24-hour urinary-free cortisol excretion and salivary cortisol levels sampled from awakening to bedtime in healthy subjects

The utility of repeated salivary cortisol sampling as a substitute for 24-hour urinary-free cortisol (UFC) assessment was examined. Forty-four participants completed both 24-hour collections and 6 salivary collections at wake-up, 08:00, 12:00, 16:00, 20:00 and bedtime, during the same 24-hour period. The results demonstrated that mean, maximum, and amplitude (maximum minus minimum) for salivary cortisol all correlated positively with urinary cortisol, but the associations of these variables with urinary-free cortisol excretion were relatively small. Furthermore, a single salivary sample taken at wake-up was as good an indicator of overall cortisol production as the measures derived from multiple salivary samples. An examination of subject compliance indicated that many subjects failed to collect the timed salivary collections as instructed. The authors conclude that diurnal salivary cortisol sampling versus 24-hour urinary cortisol collections are likely to provide different information about ambient hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal productivity, and therefore these measures should not be used interchangeably. In addition, subject compliance is a serious consideration in designing studies that employ home salivary collections. Published by Elsevier Science Inc.

‘Anything can happen in the next half-hour’: Gerry Anderson’s transnational science fiction

Gerry Anderson’s 1960s puppet series have hybrid identities in relation to their medial, geographical, and production histories. This chapter ranges over his science fiction series from Supercar (1961) to Joe 90 (1968), arguing that Anderson’s television science fiction in that period crossed many kinds of boundary and border. Anderson’s television series were a compromise between his desire to make films for adults versus an available market for children’s television puppet programs, and aimed to appeal to a cross-generational family audience. They were made on film, using novel effects, for a UK television production culture that still relied largely on live and videotaped production. While commissioned by British ITV companies, the programs had notable success in the USA, achieving national networked screening as well as syndication, and they were designed to be transatlantic products. The transnational hero teams and security organisations featured in the series supported this internationalism, and simultaneously negotiated between the cultural meanings of Britishness and Americanness. By discussing their means of production, the aesthetic and narrative features of the programs, their institutional contexts, and their international distribution, this chapter argues that Anderson’s series suggest ways of rethinking the boundaries of British science fiction television in the 1960s.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

In vitro determination of prebiotic properties of oligosaccharides derived from an orange juice manufacturing by-product stream

Fermentation properties of oligosaccharides derived from orange peel pectin were assessed in mixed fecal bacterial culture. The orange peel oligosaccharide fraction contained glucose in addition to rhamnogalacturonan and xylogalacturonan pectic oligosaccharides. Twenty-four-hour, temperature- and pH-controlled, stirred anaerobic fecal batch cultures were used to determine the effects that oligosaccharides derived from orange products had on the composition of the fecal microbiota. The effects were measured through fluorescent in situ hybridization to determine changes in bacterial populations, fermentation end products were analyzed by high-performance liquid chromatography to assess short-chain fatty acid concentrations, and subsequently, a prebiotic index (PI) was determined. Pectic oligosaccharides (POS) were able to increase the bifidobacterial and Eubacterium rectale numbers, albeit resulting in a lower prebiotic index than that from fructo-oligosaccharide metabolism. Orange albedo maintained the growth of most bacterial populations and gave a PI similar to that of soluble starch. Fermentation of POS resulted in an increase in the Eubacterium rectale numbers and concomitantly increased butyrate production. In conclusion, this study has shown that POS can have a beneficial effect on the fecal microflora; however, a classical prebiotic effect was not found. An increase in the Eubacterium rectale population was found, and butyrate levels increased, which is of potential benefit to the host.

Forty-eight hour access to primary care: practice factors predicting patients' perceptions

Background: The government has proposed a 48-hour target for GP availability. Although many practices are moving towards delivering that goal, recent national patient surveys have reported a deterioration in patients' reports of doctor availability. What practice factors contribute to patients' perceptions of doctor availability? Method: A cross sectional patient survey (11 000 patients from 54 inner London practices, 7247 (66%) respondents) using the General Practice Assessment Survey. We asked patients how soon they could be seen in their practice following non-urgent consultation requests and related their aggregated responses to the characteristics of their practice. Results: Three factors relating to practice administration and appointments systems operation independently predicted patients' reports of doctor availability. These were the proportion of patients asked to attend the surgery and wait to be seen, the proportion of patients seen using an emergency surgery arrangement, and the extent of practice computerization. Conclusion: Some practices may have difficulty in meeting the target for GP availability. Meeting the target will involve careful review of practice administrative procedures.

Dietary intakes and food sources of phytoestrogens in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) 24-hour dietary recall cohort

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Phytoestrogens are estradiol-like natural compounds found in plants that have been associated with protective effects against chronic diseases, including some cancers, cardiovascular diseases and osteoporosis. The purpose of this study was to estimate the dietary intake of phytoestrogens, identify their food sources and their association with lifestyle factors in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Single 24-hour dietary recalls were collected from 36 037 individuals from 10 European countries, aged 35–74 years using a standardized computerized interview programe (EPIC-Soft). An ad hoc food composition database on phytoestrogens (isoflavones, lignans, coumestans, enterolignans and equol) was compiled using data from available databases, in order to obtain and describe phytoestrogen intakes and their food sources across 27 redefined EPIC centres. RESULTS: Mean total phytoestrogen intake was the highest in the UK health-conscious group (24.9 mg/day in men and 21.1 mg/day in women) whereas lowest in Greece (1.3 mg/day) in men and Spain-Granada (1.0 mg/day) in women. Northern European countries had higher intakes than southern countries. The main phytoestrogen contributors were isoflavones in both UK centres and lignans in the other EPIC cohorts. Age, body mass index, educational level, smoking status and physical activity were related to increased intakes of lignans, enterolignans and equol, but not to total phytoestrogen, isoflavone or coumestan intakes. In the UK cohorts, the major food sources of phytoestrogens were soy products. In the other EPIC cohorts the dietary sources were more distributed, among fruits, vegetables, soy products, cereal products, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages. CONCLUSIONS: There was a high variability in the dietary intake of total and phytoestrogen subclasses and their food sources across European regions.

Assessment of a 1 hour gridded precipitation dataset to drive a hydrological model: a case study of the summer 2007 floods in the Upper Severn, UK

In this study a gridded hourly 1-km precipitation dataset for a meso-scale catchment (4,062 km2) of the Upper Severn River, UK was constructed using rainfall radar data to disaggregate a daily precipitation (rain gauge) dataset. The dataset was compared to an hourly precipitation dataset created entirely from rainfall radar data. Results found that when assessed against gauge readings and as input to the Lisflood-RR hydrological model, the rain gauge/radar disaggregated dataset performed the best suggesting that this simple method of combining rainfall radar data with rain gauge readings can provide temporally detailed precipitation datasets for calibrating hydrological models.

Comparison of polar ozone loss rates simulated by one-dimensional and three-dimensional models with Match observations in recent Antarctic and Arctic winters

Simulations of ozone loss rates using a three-dimensional chemical transport model and a box model during recent Antarctic and Arctic winters are compared with experimental loss rates. The study focused on the Antarctic winter 2003, during which the first Antarctic Match campaign was organized, and on Arctic winters 1999/2000, 2002/2003. The maximum ozone loss rates retrieved by the Match technique for the winters and levels studied reached 6 ppbv/sunlit hour and both types of simulations could generally reproduce the observations at 2-sigma error bar level. In some cases, for example, for the Arctic winter 2002/2003 at 475 K level, an excellent agreement within 1-sigma standard deviation level was obtained. An overestimation was also found with the box model simulation at some isentropic levels for the Antarctic winter and the Arctic winter 1999/2000, indicating an overestimation of chlorine activation in the model. Loss rates in the Antarctic show signs of saturation in September, which have to be considered in the comparison. Sensitivity tests were performed with the box model in order to assess the impact of kinetic parameters of the ClO-Cl2O2 catalytic cycle and total bromine content on the ozone loss rate. These tests resulted in a maximum change in ozone loss rates of 1.2 ppbv/sunlit hour, generally in high solar zenith angle conditions. In some cases, a better agreement was achieved with fastest photolysis of Cl2O2 and additional source of total inorganic bromine but at the expense of overestimation of smaller ozone loss rates derived later in the winter.

‘Uncanny’ repetitions in Lillian Hellman’s 'The Children’s Hour'

This article addresses Lilian Hellman’s The Children’s Hour in terms of “the uncanny,” that is as a play concerned with doubling and instability. Although this is not in itself an original approach the play, it is claimed that the unsettling iterations of the work can be understood to extend further than has been read within the handful of critical accounts thus far produced. In following Sigmund Freud’s “The Uncanny” and Judith Butler’s ‘Imitation and Gender Insubordination” in their understanding of the disruptive effects of retrospection and repetition, the article works through various threats to identity and structure in Hellman’s play, concluding with a questioning account of recent moves to situate the work within a contextual frame of performance history.

Simulation of the diurnal cycle in a climate model and its evaluation using data from Meteosat 7

The representation of the diurnal cycle in the Hadley Centre climate model is evaluated using simulations of the infrared radiances observed by Meteosat 7. In both the window and water vapour channels, the standard version of the model with 19 levels produces a good simulation of the geographical distributions of the mean radiances and of the amplitude of the diurnal cycle. Increasing the vertical resolution to 30 levels leads to further improvements in the mean fields. The timing of the maximum and minimum radiances reveals significant model errors, however, which are sensitive to the frequency with which the radiation scheme is called. In most regions, these errors are consistent with well documented errors in the timing of convective precipitation, which peaks before noon in the model, in contrast to the observed peak in the late afternoon or evening. When the radiation scheme is called every model time step (half an hour), as opposed to every three hours in the standard version, the timing of the minimum radiance is improved for convective regions over central Africa, due to the creation of upper-level layer-cloud by detrainment from the convection scheme, which persists well after the convection itself has dissipated. However, this produces a decoupling between the timing of the diurnal cycles of precipitation and window channel radiance. The possibility is raised that a similar decoupling may occur in reality and the implications of this for the retrieval of the diurnal cycle of precipitation from infrared radiances are discussed.