The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands

This paper reviews the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean and uses a state–of–the–art atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the influence of the East African Highlands on the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions. The new 44–year re–analysis produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to construct a new climatology of the Western Indian Ocean. A brief overview of the seasonal cycle of the Western Indian Ocean is presented which emphasizes the importance of the geography of the Indian Ocean basin for controlling the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean. The principal modes of inter–annual variability are described, associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode, and the basic characteristics of the subseasonal weather over the Western Indian Ocean are presented, including new statistics on cyclone tracks derived from the ECMWF re–analyses. Sensitivity experiments, in which the orographic effects of East Africa are removed, have shown that the East African Highlands, although not very high, play a significant role in the climate of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and in the heat, salinity and momentum forcing of the Western Indian Ocean. The hydrological cycle over Africa is systematically enhanced in all seasons by the presence of the East African Highlands, and during the Asian summer monsoon there is a major redistribution of the rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. The implied impact of the East African Highlands on the ocean is substantial. The East African Highlands systematically freshen the tropical Indian Ocean, and act to focus the monsoon winds along the coast, leading to greater upwelling and cooler sea–surface temperatures.

Bayes estimates of distance-to-market: Transactions costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for Positive marketable surplus -'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left-censored at some Unobserved thresholds production efficiencies are heterogeneous: and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise ant because they are fundamental to the data-generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second. because selling, involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum Sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third. the Potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production) innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market-precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright (c) 20 08 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The nutritive value of forage sorghum genotypes developed for the dry tropical highlands of Kenya as feed source for ruminants

in vitro studies were conducted on five sorghum genotypes developed for the dry tropical highland climate of Kenya and which can be fed to ruminants fresh or as silage. The five sorghum genotypes consisted of two normal white mid-rib (WMR) genotypes, coded E1291 and E65181, and three brown-midrib (BMR) genotypes, coded Lan-5, Lan-6 and Lan-12. Whole mature plants (herbage plus grain) and silage made from E 1291 were used in the study. An in vitro manual gas production technique was used to compare the nutritive characteristics of these genotypes for ruminants. These sorghums differed significantly in true organic matter degraded (OMDeg), which ranged from 520 to 678 g/kg after 24 h incubation and 706 to 805 g/kg after 72 h incubation. All the BMR sorghums had a higher degradability than the WMR genotype, E6518, and the silage, with Lan-5 having the highest degradability. Methane produced per g OMDeg ranged from 40.6 to 46.4 mL/g after 24 h incubation and from 53.1 to 62.6 mL/g after 72 h incubation. It was similar for all genotypes after 24 h incubation but Lan-12 had the highest methane production after 72 h incubation. After 24 h and 72 h incubation all the genotypes produced a similar total amount of gas per OMDeg (293 to 309 and 357 to 385 mL/g, respectively) with similar total short chain fatty acid concentrations in the liquid digesta (7.8 to 10.4 and 9.5 to 10.3 mmol, respectively) and acetate to propionate ratios of 2.16 to 2.49 and 2.35 to 2.87, respectively. The sorghums showed great potential as ruminant feed sources in the region.

The keeping quality of LPS-activated milk in the western highlands of Cameroon

The potentials of applying the lactoperoxidase system (LPS) in extending the shelf life of raw milk at ambient temperatures was investigated in the western highlands of Cameroon. Raw milk was LPS-activated by adding various concentrations (ppm) of thiocyanate and peroxide and denoted as 0:0, 7:10 ppm, 10:10 ppm and 20:20 ppm. The keeping quality of the activated milk samples was assessed by the alcohol stability and clot-on-boiling tests, pH changes and titratable acidity. The milk in all the treatments remained fresh during the first 12 hours but the control was spoiled by the 15th hour. There was a continuous drop in pH values matched by a steady rise in titratable acidity. For all parameters measured, 20:20ppm was the last treatment to spoil, suggesting that the shelf life of milk increases with increasing concentrations of thiocyanate and peroxide. With small amounts of thiocyanate (20 ppm) and peroxide (20 ppm) the shelf life of raw milk can effectively be extended under Cameroonian conditions by approximately 9 hours without refrigeration. Thus LPS-activated milk can be stored for as long 21 hours, allowing sufficient time for its appropriate disposal.

Tobit estiamtion with unknown point of censoring with an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Data augmentation is a powerful technique for estimating models with latent or missing data, but applications in agricultural economics have thus far been few. This paper showcases the technique in an application to data on milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. There, a key impediment to economic development is an apparently low rate of market participation. Consequently, economic interest centers on the “locations” of nonparticipants in relation to the market and their “reservation values” across covariates. These quantities are of policy interest because they provide measures of the additional inputs necessary in order for nonparticipants to enter the market. One quantity of primary interest is the minimum amount of surplus milk (the “minimum efficient scale of operations”) that the household must acquire before market participation becomes feasible. We estimate this quantity through routine application of data augmentation and Gibbs sampling applied to a random-censored Tobit regression. Incorporating random censoring affects markedly the marketable-surplus requirements of the household, but only slightly the covariates requirements estimates and, generally, leads to more plausible policy estimates than the estimates obtained from the zero-censored formulation

Weathering microenvironments on feldspar surfaces: implications for understanding fluid-mineral reactions in soils

The mechanisms by which coatings develop on weathered grain surfaces, and their potential impact on rates of fluid-mineral interaction, have been investigated by examining feldspars from a 1.1 ky old soil in the Glen Feshie chronosequence, Scottish highlands. Using the focused ion beam technique, electron-transparent, foils for characterization by transmission electron microscopy were cut from selected parts of grain surfaces. Some parts were bare whereas others had accumulations, a few micrometres thick, of Weathering products, often mixed with mineral and microbial debris. Feldspar exposed at bare grain surfaces is crystalline throughout and so there is no evidence for the presence of the amorphous 'leached layers' that typically form in acid-dissolution experiments and have been described from some natural Weathering contexts. The weathering products comprise sub-mu m thick crystallites of an Fe-K aluminosilicate, probably smectite, that have grown within an amorphous and probably organic-rich matrix. There is also evidence for crystallization of clays having been mediated by fungal hyphae. Coatings formed within Glen Feshie soils after similar to 1.1 ky are insufficiently continuous or impermeable to slow rates Of fluid-feldspar reactions, but provide valuable insights into the complex Weathering microenvironments oil debris and microbe-covered mineral surfaces.

Competition in tree row agroforestry systems. 3. Soil water distribution and dynamics

The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that soil water content would vary spatially with distance from a tree row and that the effect would differ according to tree species. A field study was conducted on a kaolinitic Oxisol in the sub-humid highlands of western Kenya to compare soil water distribution and dynamics in a maize monoculture with that under maize (Zea mays L.) intercropped with a 3-year-old tree row of Grevillea robusta A. Cunn. Ex R. Br. (grevillea) and hedgerow of Senna spectabilis DC. (senna). Soil water content was measured at weekly intervals during one cropping season using a neutron probe. Measurements were made from 20 cm to a depth of 225 cm at distances of 75, 150, 300 and 525 cm from the tree rows. The amount of water stored was greater under the sole maize crop than the agroforestry systems, especially the grevillea-maize system. Stored soil water in the grevillea-maize system increased with increasing distance from the tree row but in the senna-maize system, it decreased between 75 and 300 cm from the hedgerow. Soil water content increased least and more slowly early in the season in the grevillea-maize system, and drying was also evident as the frequency of rain declined. Soil water content at the end of the cropping season was similar to that at the start of the season in the grevillea-maize system, but about 50 and 80 mm greater in the senna-maize and sole maize systems, respectively. The seasonal water balance showed there was 140 mm, of drainage from the sole maize system. A similar amount was lost from the agroforestry systems (about 160 mm in the grevillea-maize system and 145 mm in the senna-maize system) through drainage or tree uptake. The possible benefits of reduced soil evaporation and crop transpiration close to a tree row were not evident in the grevillea-maize system, but appeared to greatly compensate for water uptake losses in the senna-maize system. Grevillea, managed as a tree row, reduced stored soil water to a greater extent than senna, managed as a hedgerow.

Ultrastructural alterations in mesophyll and bundle sheath chloroplasts of two maize cultivars in response to chilling at high irradiance

Maize (Zea mays L.) seedlings of two cultivars (cv. Bastion adapted to W. Europe, and cv. Batan 8686 adapted to the highlands of Mexico), raised in a glasshouse (19-25 degrees C), were transferred to 4.5 or 9 degrees C at photon flux density (PPFD) of 950 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) with 10-h photoperiod for 58 h and then allowed to recover at 22 degrees C for 16 h (14 h dark and 2 h at PPFD of 180 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)). The ultrastructural responses after 4 h or 26 h at 4.5 degrees C were the disappearance of starch grains in the bundle sheath chloroplasts and the contraction of intrathylakoid spaces in stromal thylakoids of the mesophyll chloroplasts. At this time, bundle sheath chloroplasts of cv. Batan 8686 formed peripheral reticulum. Prolonged stress at 4.5 degrees C (50 h) caused plastid swelling and the dilation of intrathylakoid spaces, mainly in mesophyll chloroplasts. Bundle sheath chloroplasts of cv. Batan 8686 seedlings appeared well preserved in shape and structure. Batan 8686 had also higher net photosynthetic rates during chilling and recovery than Bastion. Extended leaf photobleaching developed during the recovery period after chilling at 4.5 degrees C. This was associated with collapsed chloroplast envelopes, disintegrated chloroplasts and very poor staining.