A Filter for Visual Tracking Based on a Stochastic Model for Driver Behaviour

A driver controls a car by turning the steering wheel or by pressing on the accelerator or the brake. These actions are modelled by Gaussian processes, leading to a stochastic model for the motion of the car. The stochastic model is the basis of a new filter for tracking and predicting the motion of the car, using measurements obtained by fitting a rigid 3D model to a monocular sequence of video images. Experiments show that the filter easily outperforms traditional filters.

Aerosols implicated as a prime driver of twentieth-century North Atlantic climate variability

Systematic climate shifts have been linked to multidecadal variability in observed sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean1. These links are extensive, influencing a range of climate processes such as hurricane activity2 and African Sahel3, 4, 5 and Amazonian5 droughts. The variability is distinct from historical global-mean temperature changes and is commonly attributed to natural ocean oscillations6, 7, 8, 9, 10. A number of studies have provided evidence that aerosols can influence long-term changes in sea surface temperatures11, 12, but climate models have so far failed to reproduce these interactions6, 9 and the role of aerosols in decadal variability remains unclear. Here we use a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 1860–2005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. After 1950, simulated variability is within observational estimates; our estimates for 1910–1940 capture twice the warming of previous generation models but do not explain the entire observed trend. Other processes, such as ocean circulation, may also have contributed to variability in the early twentieth century. Mechanistically, we find that inclusion of aerosol–cloud microphysical effects, which were included in few previous multimodel ensembles, dominates the magnitude (80 per cent) and the spatial pattern of the total surface aerosol forcing in the North Atlantic. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic aerosol emissions influenced a range of societally important historical climate events such as peaks in hurricane activity and Sahel drought. Decadal-scale model predictions of regional Atlantic climate will probably be improved by incorporating aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions and estimates of future concentrations of aerosols, emissions of which are directly addressable by policy actions.

Stable isotope and modelling evidence for CO2 as a driver of glacial–interglacial vegetation shifts in southern Africa

Atmospheric CO2 concentration is hypothesized to influence vegetation distribution via tree–grass competition, with higher CO2 concentrations favouring trees. The stable carbon isotope (δ13C) signature of vegetation is influenced by the relative importance of C4 plants (including most tropical grasses) and C3 plants (including nearly all trees), and the degree of stomatal closure – a response to aridity – in C3 plants. Compound-specific δ13C analyses of leaf-wax biomarkers in sediment cores of an offshore South Atlantic transect are used here as a record of vegetation changes in subequatorial Africa. These data suggest a large increase in C3 relative to C4 plant dominance after the Last Glacial Maximum. Using a process-based biogeography model that explicitly simulates 13C discrimination, it is shown that precipitation and temperature changes cannot explain the observed shift in δ13C values. The physiological effect of increasing CO2 concentration is decisive, altering the C3/C4 balance and bringing the simulated and observed δ13C values into line. It is concluded that CO2 concentration itself was a key agent of vegetation change in tropical southern Africa during the last glacial–interglacial transition. Two additional inferences follow. First, long-term variations in terrestrial δ13Cvalues are not simply a proxy for regional rainfall, as has sometimes been assumed. Although precipitation and temperature changes have had major effects on vegetation in many regions of the world during the period between the Last Glacial Maximum and recent times, CO2 effects must also be taken into account, especially when reconstructing changes in climate between glacial and interglacial states. Second, rising CO2 concentration today is likely to be influencing tree–grass competition in a similar way, and thus contributing to the "woody thickening" observed in savannas worldwide. This second inference points to the importance of experiments to determine how vegetation composition in savannas is likely to be influenced by the continuing rise of CO2 concentration.

Vehicle-driver communication using off-the-shelf transceivers

Almost all modern cars can be controlled remotely using a personal communicator (keyfob). However, the degree of interaction between currently available personal communicators and cars is very limited. The communication link is unidirectional and the communication range is limited to a few dozen meters. However, there are many interesting applications that could be supported if a keyfob would be able to support energy efficient bidirectional longer range communication. In this paper we investigate off-the-shelf transceivers in terms of their usability for bidirectional longer range communication. Our evaluation results show that existing transceivers can generally support the required communication ranges but that links tend to be very unreliable. This high unreliability must be handled in an energy efficient way by the keyfob to car communication protocol in order to make off-the-shelf transceivers a viable solution.

The anti-proliferative Effects of enterolactone in prostate cancer cells: evidence for the role of DNA licencing genes, mi-R106b cluster expression, and PTEN dosage

The mammalian lignan, enterolactone, has been shown to reduce the proliferation of the earlier stages of prostate cancer at physiological concentrations in vitro. However, efficacy in the later stages of the disease occurs at concentrations difficult to achieve through dietary modification. We have therefore investigated what concentration(s) of enterolactone can restrict proliferation in multiple stages of prostate cancer using an in vitro model system of prostate disease. We determined that enterolactone at 20 μM significantly restricted the proliferation of mid and late stage models of prostate disease. These effects were strongly associated with changes in the expression of the DNA licencing genes (GMNN, CDT1, MCM2 and 7), in reduced expression of the miR-106b cluster (miR-106b, miR-93, and miR-25), and in increased expression of the PTEN tumour suppressor gene. We have shown anti-proliferative effects of enterolactone in earlier stages of prostate disease than previously reported and that these effects are mediated, in part, by microRNA-mediated regulation.

Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

Shifts in rhizosphere microbial communities and enzyme activity of Poa alpina across an alpine chronosequence

This study quantifies the influence of Poa alpina on the soil microbial community in primary succession of alpine ecosystems, and whether these effects are controlled by the successional stage. Four successional sites representative of four stages of grassland development (initial, 4 years (non-vegetated); pioneer, 20 years; transition, 75 years; mature, 9500 years old) on the Rotmoos glacier foreland, Austria, were sampled. The size, composition and activity of the microbial community in the rhizosphere and bulk soil were characterized using the chloroform-fumigation extraction procedure, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and measurements of the enzymes beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase, acid phosphatase and sulfatase. The interplay between the host plant and the successional stage was quantified using principal component (PCA) and multidimensional scaling analyses. Correlation analyses were applied to evaluate the relationship between soil factors (C-org, N-t, C/N ratio, pH, ammonium, phosphorus, potassium) and microbial properties in the bulk soil. In the pioneer stage microbial colonization of the rhizosphere of P. alpina was dependent on the reservoir of microbial species in the bulk soil. As a consequence, the rhizosphere and bulk soil were similar in microbial biomass (ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NHR-N)), community composition (PLFA), and enzyme activity. In the transition and mature grassland stage, more benign soil conditions stimulated microbial growth (NHR-N, total amount of PLFA, bacterial PLFA, Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria), and microbial diversity (Shannon index H) in the rhizosphere either directly or indirectly through enhanced carbon allocation. In the same period, the rhizosphere microflora shifted from a G(-) to a more G(+), and from a fungal to a more bacteria-dominated community. Rhizosphere beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, and sulfatase activity peaked in the mature grassland soil, whereas rhizosphere leucine aminopeptidase, beta-glucosidase, and phosphatase activity were highest in the transition stage, probably because of enhanced carbon and nutrient allocation into the rhizosphere due to better growth conditions. Soil organic matter appeared to be the most important driver of microbial colonization in the bulk soil. The decrease in soil pH and soil C/N ratio mediated the shifts in the soil microbial community composition (bacPLFA, bacPLFA/fungPLFA, G(-), G(+)/G(-)). The activities of beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase and phosphatase were related to soil ammonium and phosphorus, indicating that higher decomposition rates enhanced the nutrient availability in the bulk soil. We conclude that the major determinants of the microllora vary along the successional gradient: in the pioneer stage the rhizosphere microflora was primarily determined by the harsh soil environment; under more favourable environmental conditions, however, the host plant selected for a specific microbial community that was related to the dynamic interplay between soil properties and carbon supply. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Constructing prehistory: Lithic analysis in the Levantine Epipalaeolithic

This study explores the way in which our picture of the Levantine Epipalaeolithic has been created, investigating the constructs that take us from found objects to coherent narrative about the world. Drawing on the treatment of chipped stone, the fundamental raw material of prehistoric narratives, it examines the use of figurative devices - of metaphor, metonymy, and synecdoche - to make the connection between the world and the words we need to describe it. The work of three researchers is explored in a case study of the Middle Epipalaeolithic with the aim of showing how different research goals and methodologies have created characteristics for the period that are so entrenched in discourse as to have become virtually invisible.Yet the definition of distinct cultures with long-lasting traditions, the identification of two separate ethnic trajectories linked to separate environmental zones, and the analysis of climate as the key driver of change all rest on analytical manoeuvres to transform objects into data.

Shifts in rhizosphere microbial communities and enzyme activity of Poa alpina across an alpine chronosequence

This study quantifies the influence of Poa alpina on the soil microbial community in primary succession of alpine ecosystems, and whether these effects are controlled by the successional stage. Four successional sites representative of four stages of grassland development (initial, 4 years (non-vegetated); pioneer, 20 years; transition, 75 years; mature, 9500 years old) on the Rotmoos glacier foreland, Austria, were sampled. The size, composition and activity of the microbial community in the rhizosphere and bulk soil were characterized using the chloroform-fumigation extraction procedure, phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis and measurements of the enzymes beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, leucine aminopeptidase, acid phosphatase and sulfatase. The interplay between the host plant and the successional stage was quantified using principal component (PCA) and multidimensional scaling analyses. Correlation analyses were applied to evaluate the relationship between soil factors (C-org, N-t, C/N ratio, pH, ammonium, phosphorus, potassium) and microbial properties in the bulk soil. In the pioneer stage microbial colonization of the rhizosphere of P. alpina was dependent on the reservoir of microbial species in the bulk soil. As a consequence, the rhizosphere and bulk soil were similar in microbial biomass (ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NHR-N)), community composition (PLFA), and enzyme activity. In the transition and mature grassland stage, more benign soil conditions stimulated microbial growth (NHR-N, total amount of PLFA, bacterial PLFA, Gram-positive bacteria, Gram-negative bacteria), and microbial diversity (Shannon index H) in the rhizosphere either directly or indirectly through enhanced carbon allocation. In the same period, the rhizosphere microflora shifted from a G(-) to a more G(+), and from a fungal to a more bacteria-dominated community. Rhizosphere beta-xylosidase, N-acetyl-beta-glucosaminidase, and sulfatase activity peaked in the mature grassland soil, whereas rhizosphere leucine aminopeptidase, beta-glucosidase, and phosphatase activity were highest in the transition stage, probably because of enhanced carbon and nutrient allocation into the rhizosphere due to better growth conditions. Soil organic matter appeared to be the most important driver of microbial colonization in the bulk soil. The decrease in soil pH and soil C/N ratio mediated the shifts in the soil microbial community composition (bacPLFA, bacPLFA/fungPLFA, G(-), G(+)/G(-)). The activities of beta-glucosidase, beta-xylosidase and phosphatase were related to soil ammonium and phosphorus, indicating that higher decomposition rates enhanced the nutrient availability in the bulk soil. We conclude that the major determinants of the microllora vary along the successional gradient: in the pioneer stage the rhizosphere microflora was primarily determined by the harsh soil environment; under more favourable environmental conditions, however, the host plant selected for a specific microbial community that was related to the dynamic interplay between soil properties and carbon supply. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A multimodel comparison

During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established—but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South Atlantic, derived from observations, that is characteristic of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The experiments were carried out with six atmospheric General Circulation Models (including two versions of one model), and a major goal was to assess the extent to which key climate impacts are consistent between the different models. The major climate impacts are found over North and South America, with the strongest impacts over land found over the United States and northern parts of South America. These responses appear to be driven by a combination of an off-equatorial Gill response to diabatic heating over the Caribbean due to increased rainfall within the region and a Northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The majority of the models show warmer US land temperatures and reduced Mean Sea Level Pressure during summer (JJA) in response to a warmer North Atlantic and a cooler South Atlantic, in line with observations. However the majority of models show no significant impact on US rainfall during summer. Over northern South America, all models show reduced rainfall in southern hemisphere winter (JJA), whilst in Summer (DJF) there is a generally an increase in rainfall. However, there is a large spread amongst the models in the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies over land. Away from the Americas, there are no consistent significant modelled responses. In particular there are no significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the North Atlantic and Europe in Winter (DJF). Additionally, the observed Sahel drying signal in African rainfall is not seen in the modelled responses. Suggesting that, in contrast to some studies, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation was not the primary driver of recent reductions in Sahel rainfall.