Species distribution models for crop pollination: a modelling framework applied to Great Britain

Insect pollination benefits over three quarters of the world's major crops. There is growing concern that observed declines in pollinators may impact on production and revenues from animal pollinated crops. Knowing the distribution of pollinators is therefore crucial for estimating their availability to pollinate crops; however, in general, we have an incomplete knowledge of where these pollinators occur. We propose a method to predict geographical patterns of pollination service to crops, novel in two elements: the use of pollinator records rather than expert knowledge to predict pollinator occurrence, and the inclusion of the managed pollinator supply. We integrated a maximum entropy species distribution model (SDM) with an existing pollination service model (PSM) to derive the availability of pollinators for crop pollination. We used nation-wide records of wild and managed pollinators (honey bees) as well as agricultural data from Great Britain. We first calibrated the SDM on a representative sample of bee and hoverfly crop pollinator species, evaluating the effects of different settings on model performance and on its capacity to identify the most important predictors. The importance of the different predictors was better resolved by SDM derived from simpler functions, with consistent results for bees and hoverflies. We then used the species distributions from the calibrated model to predict pollination service of wild and managed pollinators, using field beans as a test case. The PSM allowed us to spatially characterize the contribution of wild and managed pollinators and also identify areas potentially vulnerable to low pollination service provision, which can help direct local scale interventions. This approach can be extended to investigate geographical mismatches between crop pollination demand and the availability of pollinators, resulting from environmental change or policy scenarios.

Host and habitat filtering in seedling root-associated fungal communities: taxonomic and functional diversity are altered in ‘novel’ soils

Climatic and land use changes have significant consequences for the distribution of tree species, both through natural dispersal processes and following management prescriptions. Responses to these changes will be expressed most strongly in seedlings near current species range boundaries. In northern temperate forest ecosystems, where changes are already being observed, ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute significantly to successful tree establishment. We hypothesised that communities of fungal symbionts might therefore play a role in facilitating, or limiting, host seedling range expansion. To test this hypothesis, ectomycorrhizal communities of interior Douglas-fir and interior lodgepole pine seedlings were analysed in a common greenhouse environment following growth in five soils collected along an ecosystem gradient. Currently, Douglas-fir’s natural distribution encompasses three of the five soils, whereas lodgepole pine’s extends much further north. Host filtering was evident amongst the 29 fungal species encountered: 7 were shared, 9 exclusive to Douglas-fir and 13 exclusive to lodgepole pine. Seedlings of both host species formed symbioses with each soil fungal community, thus Douglas-fir did so even where those soils came from outside its current distribution. However, these latter communities displayed significant taxonomic and functional differences to those found within the host distribution, indicative of habitat filtering. In contrast, lodgepole pine fungal communities displayed high functional similarity across the soil gradient. Taxonomic and/or functional shifts in Douglas-fir fungal communities may prove ecologically significant during the predicted northward migration of this species; especially in combination with changes in climate and management operations, such as seed transfer across geographical regions for forestry purposes.

Transcriptome analysis for discovering candidate genes involve in embryogenesis in coconut (Cocos nucifera L.) through 454 pyrosequencing

Coconut, Cocos nucifera L. is a major plantation crop, which ensures income for millions of people in the tropical region. Detailed molecular studies on zygotic embryo development would provide valuable clues for the identification of molecular markers to improve somatic embryogenesis. Since there is no ongoing genome project for this species, coconut expressed sequence tags (EST) would be an interesting technique to identify important coconut embryo specific genes as well as other functional genes in different biochemical pathways. The goal of this study was to analyse the ESTs by examining the transcriptome data of the different embryo tissue types together with one somatic tissue. Here, four cDNA libraries from immature embryo, mature embryo, microspore derived embryo and mature leaves were constructed. cDNA was sequenced by the Roche-454 GS-FLX system and assembled into 32621 putative unigenes and 155017 singletons. Of these unigenes, 18651 had significant sequence similarities to non-redundant protein database, from which 16153 were assigned to one or more gene ontology categories. Homologue genes, which are responsible for embryo development such as chitinase, beta-1,3-glucanase, ATP synthase CF0 subunit, thaumatin-like protein and metallothionein-like protein were identified among the embryo EST collection. Of the unigenes, 6694 were mapped into 139 KEGG pathways including carbohydrate metabolism, energy metabolism, lipid metabolism, amino acid metabolism and nucleotide metabolism. This collection of 454-derived EST data generated from different tissue types provides a significant resource for genome wide studies and gene discovery of coconut, a non-model species.

Strengthening the link between climate, hydrological and species distribution modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity

To understand the resilience of aquatic ecosystems to environmental change, it is important to determine how multiple, related environmental factors, such as near-surface air temperature and river flow, will change during the next century. This study develops a novel methodology that combines statistical downscaling and fish species distribution modeling, to enhance the understanding of how global climate changes (modeled by global climate models at coarse-resolution) may affect local riverine fish diversity. The novelty of this work is the downscaling framework developed to provide suitable future projections of fish habitat descriptors, focusing particularly on the hydrology which has been rarely considered in previous studies. The proposed modeling framework was developed and tested in a major European system, the Adour-Garonne river basin (SW France, 116,000 km(2)), which covers distinct hydrological and thermal regions from the Pyrenees to the Atlantic coast. The simulations suggest that, by 2100, the mean annual stream flow is projected to decrease by approximately 15% and temperature to increase by approximately 1.2 °C, on average. As consequence, the majority of cool- and warm-water fish species is projected to expand their geographical range within the basin while the few cold-water species will experience a reduction in their distribution. The limitations and potential benefits of the proposed modeling approach are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Species-specific responses of Late Quaternary megafauna to climate and humans

Despite decades of research, the roles of climate and humans in driving the dramatic extinctions of large-bodied mammals during the Late Quaternary period remain contentious. Here we use ancient DNA, species distribution models and the human fossil record to elucidate how climate and humans shaped the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros, woolly mammoth, wild horse, reindeer, bison and musk ox. We show that climate has been a major driver of population change over the past 50,000 years. However, each species responds differently to the effects of climatic shifts, habitat redistribution and human encroachment. Although climate change alone can explain the extinction of some species, such as Eurasian musk ox and woolly rhinoceros, a combination of climatic and anthropogenic effects appears to be responsible for the extinction of others, including Eurasian steppe bison and wild horse. We find no genetic signature or any distinctive range dynamics distinguishing extinct from surviving species, emphasizing the challenges associated with predicting future responses of extant mammals to climate and human-mediated habitat change.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim  Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location  Europe. Methods  We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000 yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results  Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions  The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

Individualistic sensitivities and exposure to climate change explain variation in species' distribution and abundance changes

The responses of animals and plants to recent climate change vary greatly from species to species, but attempts to understand this variation have met with limited success. This has led to concerns that predictions of responses are inherently uncertain because of the complexity of interacting drivers and biotic interactions. However, we show for an exemplar group of 155 Lepidoptera species that about 60% of the variation among species in their abundance trends over the past four decades can be explained by species-specific exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Distribution changes were less well predicted, but nonetheless, up to 53% of the variation was explained. We found that species vary in their overall sensitivity to climate and respond to different components of the climate despite ostensibly experiencing the same climate changes. Hence, species have undergone different levels of population “forcing” (exposure), driving variation among species in their national-scale abundance and distribution trends. We conclude that variation in species’ responses to recent climate change may be more predictable than previously recognized.

Determination of the impact of continuous defoliation of Lolium perenne and Trifolium repens on bacterial and fungal community structure in rhizosphere soil

To determine the effects of defoliation on microbial community structure, rhizosphere soil samples were taken pre-, and post-defoliation from the root tip and mature root regions of Trifolium repens L. and Lolium perenne L. Microbial DNA isolated from samples was used to generate polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis molecular profiles of bacterial and fungal communities. Bacterial plate counts were also obtained. Neither plant species nor defoliation affected the bacterial and fungal community structures in both the root tip and mature root regions, but there were significant differences in the bacterial and fungal community profiles between the two root regions for each plant. Prior to defoliation, there was no difference between plants for bacterial plate counts of soils from the root tip regions; however, counts were greater in the mature root region of L. perenne than T. repens. Bacterial plate counts for T. repens were higher in the root tip than the mature root region. After defoliation, there was no effect of plant type, position along the root or defoliation status on bacterial plate counts, although there were significant increases in bacterial plate counts with time. The results indicate that a general effect existed during maturation in the root regions of each plant, which had a greater impact on microbial community structure than either plant type or the effect of defoliation. In addition there were no generic consequences with regard to microbial populations in the rhizosphere as a response to plant defoliation.

Shrubs, granivores and annual plant community stability in an arid ecosystem

Compensatory population dynamics among species stabilise aggregate community variables. Inter-specific competition is thought to be stabilising as it promotes asynchrony among populations. However, we know little about other inter-specific interactions, such as facilitation and granivory. Such interactions are also likely to influence population synchrony and community stability, especially in harsh environments where they are thought to have relatively strong effects in plant communities. We use a manipulative experiment to test the effects of granivores (harvester ants) and nurse plants (dwarf shrubs) on annual plant community dynamics in the Negev desert, Israel. We present evidence for weak and inconsistent effects of harvester ants on plant abundance and on population and community stability. By contrast, we show that annual communities under shrubs were more species rich, had higher plant density and were temporally less variable than communities in the inter-shrub matrix. Species richness and plant abundance were also more resistant to drought in the shrub under-storey compared with the inter-shrub matrix, although population dynamics in both patch types were synchronised. Hence, we show that inter-specific interactions other than competition affect community stability, and that hypothesised mechanisms linking compensatory dynamics and community stability may not operate to the same extent in arid plant communities.

Vascular plant diversity and climate change in the alpine zone of the Lefka Ori, Crete

The aim of this study is to analyse the vascular flora and the local climate along an altitudinal gradient in the Lefka Ori massif Crete and to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the plant diversity of the sub-alpine and alpine zones. It provides a quantitative/qualitative analysis of vegetation-environment relationships for four summits along an altitude gradient on the Lefka Ori massif Crete (1664-2339 m). The GLORIA multi-summit approach was used to provide vegetation and floristic data together with temperature records for every summit. Species richness and species turnover was calculated together with floristic similarity between the summits. 70 species were recorded, 20 of which were endemic, belonging to 23 different families. Cretan endemics dominate at these high altitudes. Species richness and turnover decreased with altitude. The two highest summits showed greater floristic similarity. Only 20% of the total flora recorded reaches the highest summit while 10% is common among summits. Overall there was a 4.96 degrees C decrease in temperature along the 675 m gradient. Given a scenario of temperature increase the ecotone between the sub-alpine and alpine zone would be likely to have the greatest species turnover. Southern exposures are likely to be invaded first by thermophilous species while northern exposures are likely to be more resistant to changes. Species distribution shifts will also depend on habitat availability. Many, already threatened, local endemic species will be affected first.

Carbon trading for phosphorus gain: the balance between rhizosphere carboxylates and arbuscular mycorrhizal symbiosis in plant phosphorus acquisition

Two key plant adaptations for phosphorus (P) acquisition are carboxylate exudation into the rhizosphere and mycorrhizal symbioses. These target different soil P resources, presumably with different plant carbon costs. We examined the effect of inoculation with arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) on amount of rhizosphere carboxylates and plant P uptake for 10 species of low-P adapted Kennedia grown for 23 weeks in low-P sand. Inoculation decreased carboxylates in some species (up to 50%), decreased plant dry weight (21%) and increased plant P content (23%). There was a positive logarithmic relationship between plant P content and the amount of rhizosphere citric acid for inoculated and uninoculated plants. Causality was indicated by experiments using sand where little citric acid was lost from the soil solution over 2 h and citric acid at low concentrations desorbed P into the soil solution. Senesced leaf P concentration was often low and P-resorption efficiencies reached >90%. In conclusion, we propose that mycorrhizally mediated resource partitioning occurred because inoculation reduced rhizosphere carboxylates, but increased plant P uptake. Hence, presumably, the proportion of plant P acquired from strongly sorbed sources decreased with inoculation, while the proportion from labile inorganic P increased. Implications for plant fitness under field conditions now require investigation.

The diversity of arbuscular mycorrhizas of selected Australian Fabaceae

Members of the Australian native perennial Fabaceae have been little explored with regard to their root biology and the role played by arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi in their establishment, nutrition and long-term health. The ultimate goal of our research is to determine the dependency of native perennial legumes on their co-evolved AM fungi and conversely, the impact of AM fungal species in agricultural fields on the productivity of sown native perennial legume pastures. In this paper we investigate the colonisation morphology in roots and the AMF, identified by spores extracted from rhizosphere soil, from three replicate plots of each of the native legumes, Cullen australasicum, C. tenax and Lotus australis and the exotic legumes L. pedunculatus and Medicago sativa. The plants were grown in an agricultural field. The level and density of colonisation by AM fungi, and the frequency of intraradical and extraradical hyphae, arbuscules, intraradical spores and hyphal coils all differed between host plants and did not consistently differ between native and exotic species. However, there were strong similarities between species in the same genus. The three dominant species of AM fungi in rhizosphere soil also differed with host plant, but one fungus (Glomus mosseae) was always the most dominant. Sub-dominant AM species were the same between species in the same genus. No consistent differences in dominant spores were observed between the exotic and native Fabaceae species. Our results suggest that plant host influences the mycorrhizal community in the rhizosphere soil and that structural and functional differences in the symbiosis may occur at the plant genus level, not the species level or due to provenance.

An ethnomedicinal survey of a Tashelhit-speaking community in the High Atlas, Morocco

Traditional knowledge about medicinal plants from a poorly studied region, the High Atlas in Morocco, is reported here for the first time; this permits consideration of efficacy and safety of current practices whilst highlighting species previously not known to have traditional medicinal use. Our study aims to document local medicinal plant knowledge among Tashelhit speaking communities through ethnobotanical survey, identifying preferred species and new medicinal plant citations and illuminating the relationship between emic and etic ailment classifications. Ethnobotanical data were collected using standard methods and with prior informed consent obtained before all interactions, data were characterized using descriptive indices and medicinal plants and healing strategies relevant to local livelihoods were identified. 151 vernacular names corresponding to 159 botanical species were found to be used to treat 36 folk ailments grouped in 14 biomedical use categories. Thirty-five (22%) are new medicinal plant records in Morocco, and 26 described as used for the first time anywhere. Fidelity levels (FL) revealed low specificity in plant use, particularly for the most commonly reported plants. Most plants are used in mixtures. Plant use is driven by local concepts of disease, including “hot” and “cold” classification and beliefs in supernatural forces. Local medicinal plant knowledge is rich in the High Atlas, where local populations still rely on medicinal plants for healthcare. We found experimental evidence of safe and effective use of medicinal plants in the High Atlas; but we highlight the use of eight poisonous species.