The rise and fall of open solar flux during the current grand solar maximum

We use geomagnetic activity data to study the rise and fall over the past century of the solar wind flow speed VSW, the interplanetary magnetic field strength B, and the open solar flux FS. Our estimates include allowance for the kinematic effect of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow speed. As well as solar cycle variations, all three parameters show a long-term rise during the first half of the 20th century followed by peaks around 1955 and 1986 and then a recent decline. Cosmogenic isotope data reveal that this constitutes a grand maximum of solar activity which began in 1920, using the definition that such grand maxima are when 25-year averages of the heliospheric modulation potential exceeds 600 MV. Extrapolating the linear declines seen in all three parameters since 1985, yields predictions that the grand maximum will end in the years 2013, 2014, or 2027 using VSW, FS, or B, respectively. These estimates are consistent with predictions based on the probability distribution of the durations of past grand solar maxima seen in cosmogenic isotope data. The data contradict any suggestions of a floor to the open solar flux: we show that the solar minimum open solar flux, kinematically corrected to allow for the excess flux effect, has halved over the past two solar cycles.

Effects of fungicide dose and mixtures on selection for triazole resistance in Mycosphaerella graminicola under field conditions

The effects of varying doses of fungicides, alone or in mixtures, on selection for triazole resistance were examined under field conditions. Two experiments were conducted using the triazole fungicide fluquinconazole with the strobilurin fungicide azoxystrobin as a mixture partner. Inoculated wheat plots with a known ratio of more sensitive to less sensitive isolates of the leaf blotch fungus Mycosphaerella graminicola were sprayed with fungicide and sampled once symptoms had appeared. Selection for fluquinconazole resistance increased in proportion to the dose, up to one-half of the full dose (the maximum tested) in both experiments. At the higher doses of fluquinconazole, the addition of azoxystrobin was associated with a decrease in selection (nonsignificant in the first experiment) for triazole resistance. Control by low doses of fluquinconazole was increased by mixture with azoxystrobin, but at higher doses mixture with azoxystrobin sometimes decreased control, so that reduced selection was obtained at the cost of some reduction in control. The effects on resistance are not necessarily general consequences of mixing fungicides, and suggest that the properties of any specific mixture may need to be demonstrated experimentally. Selection was inversely related to control in the unmixed treatments in both experiments, but the relationship was weaker in the mixtures with azoxystrobin.

Performance of GPRS coding scheme detection under severe multipath and co-channel interference as a function of soft-bit width

The General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) has been developed for the mobile radio environment to allow the migration from the traditional circuit switched connection to a more efficient packet based communication link particularly for data transfer. GPRS requires the addition of not only the GPRS software protocol stack, but also more baseband functionality for the mobile as new coding schemes have be en defined, uplink status flag detection, multislot operation and dynamic coding scheme detect. This paper concentrates on evaluating the performance of the GPRS coding scheme detection methods in the presence of a multipath fading channel with a single co-channel interferer as a function of various soft-bit data widths. It has been found that compressing the soft-bit data widths from the output of the equalizer to save memory can influence the likelihood decision of the coding scheme detect function and hence contribute to the overall performance loss of the system. Coding scheme detection errors can therefore force the channel decoder to either select the incorrect decoding scheme or have no clear decision which coding scheme to use resulting in the decoded radio block failing the block check sequence and contribute to the block error rate. For correct performance simulation, the performance of the full coding scheme detection must be taken into account.

An efficient low power FFT implementation for multiband full-rate ultra-wideband (UWB) receivers

This paper discusses the design, implementation and synthesis of an FFT module that has been specifically optimized for use in the OFDM based Multiband UWB system, although the work is generally applicable to many other OFDM based receiver systems. Previous work has detailed the requirements for the receiver FFT module within the Multiband UWB ODFM based system and this paper draws on those requirements coupled with modern digital architecture principles and low power design criteria to converge on our optimized solution. The FFT design obtained in this paper is also applicable for implementation of the transmitter IFFT module therefore only needing one FFT module for half-duplex operation. The results from this paper enable the baseband designers of the 200Mbit/sec variant of Multiband UWB systems (and indeed other OFDM based receivers) using System-on-Chip (SoC), FPGA and ASIC technology to create cost effective and low power solutions biased toward the competitive consumer electronics market.

Soft-bit and numerical precision requirements on multiband full-rate ultra-wideband (UWB) receivers

This paper discusses the architectural design, implementation and associated simulated peformance results of a possible receiver solution fir a multiband Ultra-Wideband (UWB) receiver. The paper concentrates on the tradeoff between the soft-bit width and numerical precision requirements for the receiver versus performance. The required numerical precision results obtained in this paper can be used by baseband designers of cost effective UWB systems using Systein-on-Chip (SoC), FPGA and ASIC technology solutions biased toward the competitive consumer electronics market(1).

A low clock frequency FFT core implementation for multiband full-rate ultra-wideband (UWB) receivers

This paper discusses the design, implementation and synthesis of an FFT module that has been specifically optimized for use in the OFDM based Multiband UWB system, although the work is generally applicable to many other OFDM based receiver systems. Previous work has detailed the requirements for the receiver FFT module within the Multiband UWB ODFM based system and this paper draws on those requirements coupled with modern digital architecture principles and low power design criteria to converge on our optimized solution particularly aimed at a low-clock rate implementation. The FFT design obtained in this paper is also applicable for implementation of the transmitter IFFT module therefore only needing one FFT module in the device for half-duplex operation. The results from this paper enable the baseband designers of the 200Mbit/sec variant of Multiband UWB systems (and indeed other OFDM based receivers) using System-on-Chip (SoC), FPGA and ASIC technology to create cost effective and low power consumer electronics product solutions biased toward the very competitive market.

Maximum induced subgraph of a recursive circulant

The recursive circulant RC(2(n), 4) enjoys several attractive topological properties. Let max_epsilon(G) (m) denote the maximum number of edges in a subgraph of graph G induced by m nodes. In this paper, we show that max_epsilon(RC(2n,4))(m) = Sigma(i)(r)=(0)(p(i)/2 + i)2(Pi), where p(0) > p(1) > ... > p(r) are nonnegative integers defined by m = Sigma(i)(r)=(0)2(Pi). We then apply this formula to find the bisection width of RC(2(n), 4). The conclusion shows that, as n-dimensional cube, RC(2(n), 4) enjoys a linear bisection width. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Report of the 2010 assessment of the scientific assessment panel: future ozone and its impact on surface UV

SCIENTIFIC SUMMARY Globally averaged total column ozone has declined over recent decades due to the release of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) into the atmosphere. Now, as a result of the Montreal Protocol, ozone is expected to recover from the effects of ODSs as ODS abundances decline in the coming decades. However, a number of factors in addition to ODSs have led to and will continue to lead to changes in ozone. Discriminating between the causes of past and projected ozone changes is necessary, not only to identify the progress in ozone recovery from ODSs, but also to evaluate the effectiveness of climate and ozone protection policy options. Factors Affecting Future Ozone and Surface Ultraviolet Radiation • At least for the next few decades, the decline of ODSs is expected to be the major factor affecting the anticipated increase in global total column ozone. However, several factors other than ODS will affect the future evolution of ozone in the stratosphere. These include changes in (i) stratospheric circulation and temperature due to changes in long-lived greenhouse gas (GHG) abundances, (ii) stratospheric aerosol loading, and (iii) source gases of highly reactive stratospheric hydrogen and nitrogen compounds. Factors that amplify the effects of ODSs on ozone (e.g., stratospheric aerosols) will likely decline in importance as ODSs are gradually eliminated from the atmosphere. • Increases in GHG emissions can both positively and negatively affect ozone. Carbon dioxide (CO2)-induced stratospheric cooling elevates middle and upper stratospheric ozone and decreases the time taken for ozone to return to 1980 levels, while projected GHG-induced increases in tropical upwelling decrease ozone in the tropical lower stratosphere and increase ozone in the extratropics. Increases in nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4) concentrations also directly impact ozone chemistry but the effects are different in different regions. • The Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) is projected to strengthen over the 21st century and thereby affect ozone amounts. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the BDC or, more specifically, of the upwelling mass flux in the tropical lower stratosphere of around 2% per decade as a consequence of GHG abundance increases. A stronger BDC would decrease the abundance of tropical lower stratospheric ozone, increase poleward transport of ozone, and could reduce the atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ODSs and other trace gases. While simulations showing faster ascent in the tropical lower stratosphere to date are a robust feature of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), this has not been confirmed by observations and the responsible mechanisms remain unclear. • Substantial ozone losses could occur if stratospheric aerosol loading were to increase in the next few decades, while halogen levels are high. Stratospheric aerosol increases may be caused by sulfur contained in volcanic plumes entering the stratosphere or from human activities. The latter might include attempts to geoengineer the climate system by enhancing the stratospheric aerosol layer. The ozone losses mostly result from enhanced heterogeneous chemistry on stratospheric aerosols. Enhanced aerosol heating within the stratosphere also leads to changes in temperature and circulation that affect ozone. • Surface ultraviolet (UV) levels will not be affected solely by ozone changes but also by the effects of climate change and by air quality change in the troposphere. These tropospheric effects include changes in clouds, tropospheric aerosols, surface reflectivity, and tropospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2). The uncertainties in projections of these factors are large. Projected increases in tropospheric ozone are more certain and may lead to reductions in surface erythemal (“sunburning”) irradiance of up to 10% by 2100. Changes in clouds may lead to decreases or increases in surface erythemal irradiance of up to 15% depending on latitude. Expected Future Changes in Ozone Full ozone recovery from the effects of ODSs and return of ozone to historical levels are not synonymous. In this chapter a key target date is chosen to be 1980, in part to retain the connection to previous Ozone Assessments. Noting, however, that decreases in ozone may have occurred in some regions of the atmosphere prior to 1980, 1960 return dates are also reported. The projections reported on in this chapter are taken from a recent compilation of CCM simulations. The ozone projections, which also form the basis for the UV projections, are limited in their representativeness of possible futures since they mostly come from CCM simulations based on a single GHG emissions scenario (scenario A1B of Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 2000) and a single ODS emissions scenario (adjusted A1 of the previous (2006) Ozone Assessment). Throughout this century, the vertical, latitudinal, and seasonal structure of the ozone distribution will be different from what it was in 1980. For this reason, ozone changes in different regions of the atmosphere are considered separately. • The projections of changes in ozone and surface clear-sky UV are broadly consistent with those reported on in the 2006 Assessment. • The capability of making projections and attribution of future ozone changes has been improved since the 2006 Assessment. Use of CCM simulations from an increased number of models extending through the entire period of ozone depletion and recovery from ODSs (1960–2100) as well as sensitivity simulations have allowed more robust projections of long-term changes in the stratosphere and of the relative contributions of ODSs and GHGs to those changes. • Global annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels before the middle of the century and earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading returns to 1980 levels. CCM projections suggest that this early return is primarily a result of GHG-induced cooling of the upper stratosphere because the effects of circulation changes on tropical and extratropical ozone largely cancel. Global (90°S–90°N) annually averaged total column ozone will likely return to 1980 levels between 2025 and 2040, well before the return of stratospheric halogens to 1980 levels between 2045 and 2060. • Simulated changes in tropical total column ozone from 1960 to 2100 are generally small. The evolution of tropical total column ozone in models depends on the balance between upper stratospheric increases and lower stratospheric decreases. The upper stratospheric increases result from declining ODSs and a slowing of ozone destruction resulting from GHG-induced cooling. Ozone decreases in the lower stratosphere mainly result from an increase in tropical upwelling. From 1960 until around 2000, a general decline is simulated, followed by a gradual increase to values typical of 1980 by midcentury. Thereafter, although total column ozone amounts decline slightly again toward the end of the century, by 2080 they are no longer expected to be affected by ODSs. Confidence in tropical ozone projections is compromised by the fact that simulated decreases in column ozone to date are not supported by observations, suggesting that significant uncertainties remain. • Midlatitude total column ozone is simulated to evolve differently in the two hemispheres. Over northern midlatitudes, annually averaged total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 values between 2015 and 2030, while for southern midlatitudes the return to 1980 values is projected to occur between 2030 and 2040. The more rapid return to 1980 values in northern midlatitudes is linked to a more pronounced strengthening of the poleward transport of ozone due to the effects of increased GHG levels, and effects of Antarctic ozone depletion on southern midlatitudes. By 2100, midlatitude total column ozone is projected to be above 1980 values in both hemispheres. • October-mean Antarctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels after midcentury, later than in any other region, and yet earlier than when stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to 1980 levels. The slightly earlier return of ozone to 1980 levels (2045–2060) results primarily from upper stratospheric cooling and resultant increases in ozone. The return of polar halogen loading to 1980 levels (2050–2070) in CCMs is earlier than in empirical models that exclude the effects of GHG-induced changes in circulation. Our confidence in the drivers of changes in Antarctic ozone is higher than for other regions because (i) ODSs exert a strong influence on Antarctic ozone, (ii) the effects of changes in GHG abundances are comparatively small, and (iii) projections of ODS emissions are more certain than those for GHGs. Small Antarctic ozone holes (areas of ozone <220 Dobson units, DU) could persist to the end of the 21st century. • March-mean Arctic total column ozone is projected to return to 1980 levels two to three decades before polar halogen loading returns to 1980 levels, and to exceed 1980 levels thereafter. While CCM simulations project a return to 1980 levels between 2020 and 2035, most models tend not to capture observed low temperatures and thus underestimate present-day Arctic ozone loss such that it is possible that this return date is biased early. Since the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation through the 21st century leads to increases in springtime Arctic column ozone, by 2100 Arctic ozone is projected to lie well above 1960 levels. Uncertainties in Projections • Conclusions dependent on future GHG levels are less certain than those dependent on future ODS levels since ODS emissions are controlled by the Montreal Protocol. For the six GHG scenarios considered by a few CCMs, the simulated differences in stratospheric column ozone over the second half of the 21st century are largest in the northern midlatitudes and the Arctic, with maximum differences of 20–40 DU between the six scenarios in 2100. • There remain sources of uncertainty in the CCM simulations. These include the use of prescribed ODS mixing ratios instead of emission fluxes as lower boundary conditions, the range of sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations, missing tropospheric chemistry, model parameterizations, and model climate sensitivity. • Geoengineering schemes for mitigating climate change by continuous injections of sulfur-containing compounds into the stratosphere, if implemented, would substantially affect stratospheric ozone, particularly in polar regions. Ozone losses observed following large volcanic eruptions support this prediction. However, sporadic volcanic eruptions provide limited analogs to the effects of continuous sulfur emissions. Preliminary model simulations reveal large uncertainties in assessing the effects of continuous sulfur injections. Expected Future Changes in Surface UV. While a number of factors, in addition to ozone, affect surface UV irradiance, the focus in this chapter is on the effects of changes in stratospheric ozone on surface UV. For this reason, clear-sky surface UV irradiance is calculated from ozone projections from CCMs. • Projected increases in midlatitude ozone abundances during the 21st century, in the absence of changes in other factors, in particular clouds, tropospheric aerosols, and air pollutants, will result in decreases in surface UV irradiance. Clear-sky erythemal irradiance is projected to return to 1980 levels on average in 2025 for the northern midlatitudes, and in 2035 for the southern midlatitudes, and to fall well below 1980 values by the second half of the century. However, actual changes in surface UV will be affected by a number of factors other than ozone. • In the absence of changes in other factors, changes in tropical surface UV will be small because changes in tropical total column ozone are projected to be small. By the middle of the 21st century, the model projections suggest surface UV to be slightly higher than in the 1960s, very close to values in 1980, and slightly lower than in 2000. The projected decrease in tropical total column ozone through the latter half of the century will likely result in clear-sky surface UV remaining above 1960 levels. Average UV irradiance is already high in the tropics due to naturally occurring low total ozone columns and high solar elevations. • The magnitude of UV changes in the polar regions is larger than elsewhere because ozone changes in polar regions are larger. For the next decades, surface clear-sky UV irradiance, particularly in the Antarctic, will continue to be higher than in 1980. Future increases in ozone and decreases in clear-sky UV will occur at slower rates than those associated with the ozone decreases and UV increases that occurred before 2000. In Antarctica, surface clear-sky UV is projected to return to 1980 levels between 2040 and 2060, while in the Arctic this is projected to occur between 2020 and 2030. By 2100, October surface clear-sky erythemal irradiance in Antarctica is likely to be between 5% below to 25% above 1960 levels, with considerable uncertainty. This is consistent with multi-model-mean October Antarctic total column ozone not returning to 1960 levels by 2100. In contrast, by 2100, surface clear-sky UV in the Arctic is projected to be 0–10% below 1960 levels.

Adobe Devanagari typeface

Typeface design: collaborative work commissioned by Adobe Inc. Published but unreleased. The Adobe Devanagari typefaces were commissioned from Tiro Typeworks and collaboratively designed by Tim Holloway, Fiona Ross and John Hudson, beginning in 2005. The types were officially released in 2009. The design brief was to produce a typeface for modern business communications in Hindi and other languages, to be legible both in print and on screen. Adobe Devanagari was designed to be highly readable in a range of situations including quite small sizes in spreadsheets and in continuous text setting, as well as at display sizes, where the full character of the typeface reveals itself. The construction of the letters is based on traditional penmanship but possesses less stroke contrast than many Devanagari types, in order to maintain strong, legible forms at smaller sizes. To achieve a dynamic, fluid style the design features a rounded treatment of distinguishing terminals and stroke reversals, open counters that also aid legibility at smaller sizes, and delicately flaring strokes. Together, these details reveal an original hand and provide a contemporary approach that is clean, clear and comfortable to read whether in short or long passages of text. This new approach to a traditional script is intended to counter the dominance of rigid, staccato-like effects of straight verticals and horizontals in earlier types and many existing fonts. OpenType Layout features in the fonts provide both automated and discretionary access to an extensive glyph set, enabling sophisticated typography. Many conjuncts preferred in classical literary texts and particularly in some North Indian languages are included; these literary conjuncts may be substituted by specially designed alternative linear forms and fitted half forms. The length of the ikars—ि and ी—varies automatically according to adjacent letter or conjunct width. Regional variants of characters and numerals (e.g. Marathi forms) are included as alternates. Careful attention has been given to the placements of all vowel signs and modifiers. The fonts include both proportional and tabular numerals in Indian and European styles. Extensive kerning covers several thousand possible combinations of half forms and full forms to anticipate arbitrary conjuncts in foreign loan words. _____

Wave trapping in a two-dimensional sound-soft or sound-hard acoustic waveguide of slowly-varying width

In this paper we derive novel approximations to trapped waves in a two-dimensional acoustic waveguide whose walls vary slowly along the guide, and at which either Dirichlet (sound-soft) or Neumann (sound-hard) conditions are imposed. The guide contains a single smoothly bulging region of arbitrary amplitude, but is otherwise straight, and the modes are trapped within this localised increase in width. Using a similar approach to that in Rienstra (2003), a WKBJ-type expansion yields an approximate expression for the modes which can be present, which display either propagating or evanescent behaviour; matched asymptotic expansions are then used to derive connection formulae which bridge the gap across the cut-off between propagating and evanescent solutions in a tapering waveguide. A uniform expansion is then determined, and it is shown that appropriate zeros of this expansion correspond to trapped mode wavenumbers; the trapped modes themselves are then approximated by the uniform expansion. Numerical results determined via a standard iterative method are then compared to results of the full linear problem calculated using a spectral method, and the two are shown to be in excellent agreement, even when $\epsilon$, the parameter characterising the slow variations of the guide’s walls, is relatively large.

The maximum rate of mammal evolution

How fast can a mammal evolve from the size of a mouse to the size of an elephant? Achieving such a large transformation calls for major biological reorganization. Thus, the speed at which this occurs has important implications for extensive faunal changes, including adaptive radiations and recovery from mass extinctions. To quantify the pace of large-scale evolution we developed a metric, clade maximum rate, which represents the maximum evolutionary rate of a trait within a clade. We applied this metric to body mass evolution in mammals over the last 70 million years, during which multiple large evolutionary transitions occurred in oceans and on continents and islands. Our computations suggest that it took a minimum of 1.6, 5.1, and 10 million generations for terrestrial mammal mass to increase 100-, and 1,000-, and 5,000- fold, respectively. Values for whales were down to half the length (i.e., 1.1, 3, and 5 million generations), perhaps due to the reduced mechanical constraints of living in an aquatic environment. When differences in generation time are considered, we find an exponential increase in maximum mammal body mass during the 35 million years following the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event. Our results also indicate a basic asymmetry in macroevolution: very large decreases (such as extreme insular dwarfism) can happen at more than 10 times the rate of increases. Our findings allow more rigorous comparisons of microevolutionary and macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Keywords: haldanes, biological time, scaling, pedomorphosis

Analysis of full-waveform LiDAR data for classification of an orange orchard scene

Full-waveform laser scanning data acquired with a Riegl LMS-Q560 instrument were used to classify an orange orchard into orange trees, grass and ground using waveform parameters alone. Gaussian decomposition was performed on this data capture from the National Airborne Field Experiment in November 2006 using a custom peak-detection procedure and a trust-region-reflective algorithm for fitting Gauss functions. Calibration was carried out using waveforms returned from a road surface, and the backscattering coefficient c was derived for every waveform peak. The processed data were then analysed according to the number of returns detected within each waveform and classified into three classes based on pulse width and c. For single-peak waveforms the scatterplot of c versus pulse width was used to distinguish between ground, grass and orange trees. In the case of multiple returns, the relationship between first (or first plus middle) and last return c values was used to separate ground from other targets. Refinement of this classification, and further sub-classification into grass and orange trees was performed using the c versus pulse width scatterplots of last returns. In all cases the separation was carried out using a decision tree with empirical relationships between the waveform parameters. Ground points were successfully separated from orange tree points. The most difficult class to separate and verify was grass, but those points in general corresponded well with the grass areas identified in the aerial photography. The overall accuracy reached 91%, using photography and relative elevation as ground truth. The overall accuracy for two classes, orange tree and combined class of grass and ground, yielded 95%. Finally, the backscattering coefficient c of single-peak waveforms was also used to derive reflectance values of the three classes. The reflectance of the orange tree class (0.31) and ground class (0.60) are consistent with published values at the wavelength of the Riegl scanner (1550 nm). The grass class reflectance (0.46) falls in between the other two classes as might be expected, as this class has a mixture of the contributions of both vegetation and ground reflectance properties.

Large inert carbon pool in the terrestrial biosphere at the Last Glacial Maximum

During each of the late Pleistocene glacial–interglacial transitions, atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rose by almost 100 ppm. The sources of this carbon are unclear, and efforts to identify them are hampered by uncertainties in the magnitude of carbon reservoirs and fluxes under glacial conditions. Here we use oxygen isotope measurements from air trapped in ice cores and ocean carbon-cycle modelling to estimate terrestrial and oceanic gross primary productivity during the Last Glacial Maximum. We find that the rate of gross terrestrial primary production during the Last Glacial Maximum was about 40±10 Pg C yr−1, half that of the pre-industrial Holocene. Despite the low levels of photosynthesis, we estimate that the late glacial terrestrial biosphere contained only 330 Pg less carbon than pre-industrial levels. We infer that the area covered by carbon-rich but unproductive biomes such as tundra and cold steppes was significantly larger during the Last Glacial Maximum, consistent with palaeoecological data. Our data also indicate the presence of an inert carbon pool of 2,300 Pg C, about 700 Pg larger than the inert carbon locked in permafrost today. We suggest that the disappearance of this carbon pool at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum may have contributed to the deglacial rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.

[Global climate] global aerosols [in state of the climate in 2008]

The global mean temperature in 2008 was slightly cooler than that in 2007; however, it still ranks within the 10 warmest years on record. Annual mean temperatures were generally well above average in South America, northern and southern Africa, Iceland, Europe, Russia, South Asia, and Australia. In contrast, an exceptional cold outbreak occurred during January across Eurasia and over southern European Russia and southern western Siberia. There has been a general increase in land-surface temperatures and in permafrost temperatures during the last several decades throughout the Arctic region, including increases of 1° to 2°C in the last 30 to 35 years in Russia. Record setting warm summer (JJA) air temperatures were observed throughout Greenland. The year 2008 was also characterized by heavy precipitation in a number of regions of northern South America, Africa, and South Asia. In contrast, a prolonged and intense drought occurred during most of 2008 in northern Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay, and southern Brazil, causing severe impacts to agriculture and affecting many communities. The year began with a strong La Niña episode that ended in June. Eastward surface current anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean in early 2008 played a major role in adjusting the basin from strong La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions by July–August, followed by a return to La Niña conditions late in December. The La Niña conditions resulted in far-reaching anomalies such as a cooling in the central tropical Pacific, Arctic Ocean, and the regions extending from the Gulf of Alaska to the west coast of North America; changes in the sea surface salinity and heat content anomalies in the tropics; and total column water vapor, cloud cover, tropospheric temperature, and precipitation patterns typical of a La Niña. Anomalously salty ocean surface salinity values in climatologically drier locations and anomalously fresh values in rainier locations observed in recent years generally persisted in 2008, suggesting an increase in the hydrological cycle. The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the 14th busiest on record and the only season ever recorded with major hurricanes each month from July through November. Conversely, activity in the northwest Pacific was considerably below normal during 2008. While activity in the north Indian Ocean was only slightly above average, the season was punctuated by Cyclone Nargis, which killed over 145,000 people; in addition, it was the seventh-strongest cyclone ever in the basin and the most devastating to hit Asia since 1991. Greenhouse gas concentrations continued to rise, increasing by more than expected based on with CO2 the 1979 to 2007 trend. In the oceans, the global mean uptake for 2007 is estimated to be 1.67 Pg-C, about CO2 0.07 Pg-C lower than the long-term average, making it the third-largest anomaly determined with this method since 1983, with the largest uptake of carbon over the past decade coming from the eastern Indian Ocean. Global phytoplankton chlorophyll concentrations were slightly elevated in 2008 relative to 2007, but regional changes were substantial (ranging to about 50%) and followed long-term patterns of net decreases in chlorophyll with increasing sea surface temperature. Ozone-depleting gas concentrations continued to fall globally to about 4% below the peak levels of the 2000–02 period. Total column ozone concentrations remain well below pre-1980, levels and the 2008 ozone hole was unusually large (sixth worst on record) and persistent, with low ozone values extending into the late December period. In fact the polar vortex in 2008 persisted longer than for any previous year since 1979. Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent for the year was well below average due in large part to the record-low ice extent in March and despite the record-maximum coverage in January and the shortest snow cover duration on record (which started in 1966) in the North American Arctic. Limited preliminary data imply that in 2008 glaciers continued to lose mass, and full data for 2007 show it was the 17th consecutive year of loss. The northern region of Greenland and adjacent areas of Arctic Canada experienced a particularly intense melt season, even though there was an abnormally cold winter across Greenland's southern half. One of the most dramatic signals of the general warming trend was the continued significant reduction in the extent of the summer sea-ice cover and, importantly, the decrease in the amount of relatively older, thicker ice. The extent of the 2008 summer sea-ice cover was the second-lowest value of the satellite record (which started in 1979) and 36% below the 1979–2000 average. Significant losses in the mass of ice sheets and the area of ice shelves continued, with several fjords on the northern coast of Ellesmere Island being ice free for the first time in 3,000–5,500 years. In Antarctica, the positive phase of the SAM led to record-high total sea ice extent for much of early 2008 through enhanced equatorward Ekman transport. With colder continental temperatures at this time, the 2007–08 austral summer snowmelt season was dramatically weakened, making it the second shortest melt season since 1978 (when the record began). There was strong warming and increased precipitation along the Antarctic Peninsula and west Antarctica in 2008, and also pockets of warming along coastal east Antarctica, in concert with continued declines in sea-ice concentration in the Amundsen/Bellingshausen Seas. One significant event indicative of this warming was the disintegration and retreat of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in the southwest peninsula area of Antarctica.

Results of PMIP2 coupled simulations of the mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum, Part 2: feedbacks with emphasis on the location of the ITCZ and mid- and high latitudes heat budget

A set of coupled ocean-atmosphere(-vegetation) simulations using state of the art climate models is now available for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Mid-Holocene (MH) through the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). Here we quantify the latitudinal shift of the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the tropical regions during boreal summer and the change in precipitation in the northern part of the ITCZ. For both periods the shift is more pronounced over the continents and East Asia. The maritime continent is the region where the largest spread is found between models. We also clearly establish that the larger the increase in the meridional temperature gradient in the tropical Atlantic during summer at the MH, the larger the change in precipitation over West Africa. The vegetation feedback is however not as large as found in previous studies, probably due to model differences in the control simulation. Finally, we show that the feedback from snow and sea-ice at mid and high latitudes contributes for half of the cooling in the Northern Hemisphere for the LGM, with the remaining being achieved by the reduced CO2 and water vapour in the atmosphere. For the MH the snow and albedo feedbacks strengthen the spring cooling and enhance the boreal summer warming, whereas water vapour reinforces the late summer warming. These feedbacks are modest in the Southern Hemisphere. For the LGM most of the surface cooling is due to CO2 and water vapour.