Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required.

Comparison of D-region Doppler drift winds measured by the SuperDARN Finland HF radar over an annual cycle using the Kiruna VHF meteor radar

The SuperDARN chain of oblique HF radars has provided an opportunity to generate a unique climatology of horizontal winds near the mesopause at a number of high latitude locations, via the Doppler shifted echoes from sources of ionisation in the D-region. Ablating meteor trails form the bulk of these targets, but other phenomena also contribute to the observations. Due to the poor vertical resolution of the radars, care must be taken to reduce possible biases from sporadic-E layers and Polar Mesospheric Summer echoes that can affect the effective altitude of the geophysical parameters being observed. Second, there is strong theoretical and observational evidence to suggest that the radars are picking up echoes from the backward looking direction that will tend to reduce the measured wind strengths. The effect is strongly frequency dependent, resulting in a 20% reduction at 12 MHz and a 50% reduction at 10 MHz. A comparison of the climatologies observed by the Super-DARN Finland radar between September 1999 and September 2000 and that obtained from the adjacent VHF meteor radar located at Kiruna is also presented. The agreement between the two instruments was very good. Extending the analysis to the SuperDARN Iceland East radar indicated that the principles outlined above could be applied successfully to the rest of the SuperDARN network.

The acoustic signature of fluid flow in complex porous media

Effective medium approximations for the frequency-dependent and complex-valued effective stiffness tensors of cracked/ porous rocks with multiple solid constituents are developed on the basis of the T-matrix approach (based on integral equation methods for quasi-static composites), the elastic - viscoelastic correspondence principle, and a unified treatment of the local and global flow mechanisms, which is consistent with the principle of fluid mass conservation. The main advantage of using the T-matrix approach, rather than the first-order approach of Eshelby or the second-order approach of Hudson, is that it produces physically plausible results even when the volume concentrations of inclusions or cavities are no longer small. The new formulae, which operates with an arbitrary homogeneous (anisotropic) reference medium and contains terms of all order in the volume concentrations of solid particles and communicating cavities, take explicitly account of inclusion shape and spatial distribution independently. We show analytically that an expansion of the T-matrix formulae to first order in the volume concentration of cavities (in agreement with the dilute estimate of Eshelby) has the correct dependence on the properties of the saturating fluid, in the sense that it is consistent with the Brown-Korringa relation, when the frequency is sufficiently low. We present numerical results for the (anisotropic) effective viscoelastic properties of a cracked permeable medium with finite storage porosity, indicating that the complete T-matrix formulae (including the higher-order terms) are generally consistent with the Brown-Korringa relation, at least if we assume the spatial distribution of cavities to be the same for all cavity pairs. We have found an efficient way to treat statistical correlations in the shapes and orientations of the communicating cavities, and also obtained a reasonable match between theoretical predictions (based on a dual porosity model for quartz-clay mixtures, involving relatively flat clay-related pores and more rounded quartz-related pores) and laboratory results for the ultrasonic velocity and attenuation spectra of a suite of typical reservoir rocks. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linear and nonlinear microrheology of dense colloidal suspensions

The length and time scales accessible to optical tweezers make them an ideal tool for the examination of colloidal systems. Embedded high-refractive-index tracer particles in an index-matched hard sphere suspension provide 'handles' within the system to investigate the mechanical behaviour. Passive observations of the motion of a single probe particle give information about the linear response behaviour of the system, which can be linked to the macroscopic frequency-dependent viscous and elastic moduli of the suspension. Separate 'dragging' experiments allow observation of a sample's nonlinear response to an applied stress on a particle-by particle basis. Optical force measurements have given new data about the dynamics of phase transitions and particle interactions; an example in this study is the transition from liquid-like to solid-like behaviour, and the emergence of a yield stress and other effects attributable to nearest-neighbour caging effects. The forces needed to break such cages and the frequency of these cage breaking events are investigated in detail for systems close to the glass transition.

Interference competition and high temperature reduce the ‘virulence’ of fig wasps and contribute to stability of a fig-wasp mutualism

Fig trees are pollinated by fig wasps, which also oviposit in female flowers. The wasp larvae gall and eat developing seeds. Although fig trees benefit from allowing wasps to oviposit, because the wasp offspring disperse pollen, figs must prevent wasps from ovipositing in all flowers, or seed production would cease, and the mutualism would go extinct. In Ficus racemosa, we find that syconia (‘figs’) that have few foundresses (ovipositing wasps) are underexploited in the summer (few seeds, few galls, many empty ovules) and are overexploited in the winter (few seeds, many galls, few empty ovules). Conversely, syconia with many foundresses produce intermediate numbers of galls and seeds, regardless of season. We use experiments to explain these patterns, and thus, to explain how this mutualism is maintained. In the hot summer, wasps suffer short lifespans and therefore fail to oviposit in many flowers. In contrast, cooler temperatures in the winter permit longer wasp lifespans, which in turn allows most flowers to be exploited by the wasps. However, even in winter, only in syconia that happen to have few foundresses are most flowers turned into galls. In syconia with higher numbers of foundresses, interference competition reduces foundress lifespans, which reduces the proportion of flowers that are galled. We further show that syconia encourage the entry of multiple foundresses by delaying ostiole closure. Taken together, these factors allow fig trees to reduce galling in the wasp-benign winter and boost galling (and pollination) in the wasp-stressing summer. Interference competition has been shown to reduce virulence in pathogenic bacteria. Our results show that interference also maintains cooperation in a classic, cooperative symbiosis, thus linking theories of virulence and mutualism. More generally, our results reveal how frequency-dependent population regulation can occur in the fig-wasp mutualism, and how a host species can ‘set the rules of the game’ to ensure mutualistic behavior in its symbionts.

Texture development in ice cream - effects of adding cocoa solids

Dynamic rheological techniques can aid the understanding of the factors contributing to ice cream structure, though the data obtained differs from that deduced from destructive techniques. Studies have shown that ice cream systems are both strain- and frequency-dependent. Chocolate ice cream is normally more viscous than the equivalent vanilla ice cream during mix preparation and has more body on freezing. Ice creams were prepared with and without cocoa solids and frequency sweeps were made from 0.1 to 100 Hz at 0.1% strain. With rapidly frozen ice creams, both G' and G" increased in the presence of cocoa solids. Comparison of mixes made with and without low-fat cocoa powder or non-gelatinizing starch demonstrated a similar relationship, with higher apparent viscosities in those mixes containing either cocoa powder or the starch. The results were consistent with the cocoa particles adding to the effect of the fat globules in increasing viscosity.

Effect of heat on rheology of gluten fractions from flours with different bread-making quality

Flours from wheat varieties of differing bread-making quality were fractionated using a sequential salt precipitation technique. The gluten fractions in the different varieties varied in the proportion of HMW, LMW glutenins and gliadins. Their rheological behaviour was examined using constant strain (2%) small deformation oscillation tests over frequencies ranging from 0.005 to 10 Hz, before and after heating at 90 degrees C. The fractions containing a higher proportion of HMW glutenins were associated with a predominantly elastic character, whereas fractions containing mostly gliadins exhibited a viscous-like behaviour. The frequency dependent rheological behaviour of fractions containing HMW proteins was less susceptible to heat, and their elastic character was maintained after heating, whereas the rheology of intermediate fractions and fractions containing mostly gliadins was more susceptible to heating, indicating a rapid change from viscous to elastic behaviour after heating. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of composition on fat rheology and crystallisation

The crystallisation behaviour of three fat blends, comprising a commercial shortening, a blend of fats with a very low trans fatty acid content ("low-trans") and a blend including hardened rapeseed oil with a relatively high trans fatty acid content ("high-trans") was studied. Molten fats were lowered to a temperature of 31 degrees C and stirred for 0, 15, 30, 45 and 60 min. Samples were removed and their rheological properties studied, using a controlled stress rheometer, employing a frequency sweep procedure. Effects of the progressive crystallisation at 31 degrees C on the melting profile of fat samples removed from the stirred vessel and solidified at -20 degrees C were also studied by differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). The rheological profiles obtained suggested that all of the fats studied had weak viscoelastic "liquid" structures when melted, but these changed to structures perceived by the rheometer as weak viscoelastic "gels" in the early stages of crystallisation (G' (storage modulus) > G" (loss modulus) over most of the measured frequency range). These subsequently developed into weak viscoelastic semi-solids, showing frequency dependent behaviour on further crystallisation. These changes in behaviour were interpreted as changes from a small number of larger crystals "cross-linking" in a liquid matrix to a larger number of smaller crystals packed with a "slip plane" of liquid oil between them. The rate of crystallisation of the three fats was in the order high trans > low-trans > commercial shortening. Changes in the DSC melting profile due to fractionation of triacylglycerols during the crystallisation at 31 degrees C were evident for all three fats. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The consequences of diffractively spreading beams in ultrafast THz spectroscopy

There are established methods for calculating optical constants from measurements using a broadband terahertz (THz) source. Applications to ultrafast THz spectroscopy have adopted the key assumption that the THz beam is treated as a normal incidence plane-wave. We show that this assumption results in a frequency-dependent systematic error, which is compounded by distortion of the beam on introduction of the sample.

Apodisation, denoising and system identification techniques for THz transients in the wavelet domain

This work describes the use of a quadratic programming optimization procedure for designing asymmetric apodization windows to de-noise THz transient interferograms and compares these results to those obtained when wavelet signal processing algorithms are adopted. A systems identification technique in the wavelet domain is also proposed for the estimation of the complex insertion loss function. The proposed techniques can enhance the frequency dependent dynamic range of an experiment and should be of particular interest to the THz imaging and tomography community. Future advances in THz sources and detectors are likely to increase the signal-to-noise ratio of the recorded THz transients and high quality apodization techniques will become more important, and may set the limit on the achievable accuracy of the deduced spectrum.

Modelling the propagation of terahertz radiation through a tissue simulating phantom

Terahertz (THz) frequency radiation, 0.1 THz to 20 THz, is being investigated for biomedical imaging applications following the introduction of pulsed THz sources that produce picosecond pulses and function at room temperature. Owing to the broadband nature of the radiation, spectral and temporal information is available from radiation that has interacted with a sample; this information is exploited in the development of biomedical imaging tools and sensors. In this work, models to aid interpretation of broadband THz spectra were developed and evaluated. THz radiation lies on the boundary between regions best considered using a deterministic electromagnetic approach and those better analysed using a stochastic approach incorporating quantum mechanical effects, so two computational models to simulate the propagation of THz radiation in an absorbing medium were compared. The first was a thin film analysis and the second a stochastic Monte Carlo model. The Cole–Cole model was used to predict the variation with frequency of the physical properties of the sample and scattering was neglected. The two models were compared with measurements from a highly absorbing water-based phantom. The Monte Carlo model gave a prediction closer to experiment over 0.1 to 3 THz. Knowledge of the frequency-dependent physical properties, including the scattering characteristics, of the absorbing media is necessary. The thin film model is computationally simple to implement but is restricted by the geometry of the sample it can describe. The Monte Carlo framework, despite being initially more complex, provides greater flexibility to investigate more complicated sample geometries.

Two methods for modelling the propagation of terahertz radiation in a layered structure

Modelling the interaction of terahertz(THz) radiation with biological tissueposes many interesting problems. THzradiation is neither obviously described byan electric field distribution or anensemble of photons and biological tissueis an inhomogeneous medium with anelectronic permittivity that is bothspatially and frequency dependent making ita complex system to model.A three-layer system of parallel-sidedslabs has been used as the system throughwhich the passage of THz radiation has beensimulated. Two modelling approaches havebeen developed a thin film matrix model anda Monte Carlo model. The source data foreach of these methods, taken at the sametime as the data recorded to experimentallyverify them, was a THz spectrum that hadpassed though air only.Experimental verification of these twomodels was carried out using athree-layered in vitro phantom. Simulatedtransmission spectrum data was compared toexperimental transmission spectrum datafirst to determine and then to compare theaccuracy of the two methods. Goodagreement was found, with typical resultshaving a correlation coefficient of 0.90for the thin film matrix model and 0.78 forthe Monte Carlo model over the full THzspectrum. Further work is underway toimprove the models above 1 THz.

Stochastic perturbations to dynamical systems: a response theory approach

Using the formalism of the Ruelle response theory, we study how the invariant measure of an Axiom A dynamical system changes as a result of adding noise, and describe how the stochastic perturbation can be used to explore the properties of the underlying deterministic dynamics. We first find the expression for the change in the expectation value of a general observable when a white noise forcing is introduced in the system, both in the additive and in the multiplicative case. We also show that the difference between the expectation value of the power spectrum of an observable in the stochastically perturbed case and of the same observable in the unperturbed case is equal to the variance of the noise times the square of the modulus of the linear susceptibility describing the frequency-dependent response of the system to perturbations with the same spatial patterns as the considered stochastic forcing. This provides a conceptual bridge between the change in the fluctuation properties of the system due to the presence of noise and the response of the unperturbed system to deterministic forcings. Using Kramers-Kronig theory, it is then possible to derive the real and imaginary part of the susceptibility and thus deduce the Green function of the system for any desired observable. We then extend our results to rather general patterns of random forcing, from the case of several white noise forcings, to noise terms with memory, up to the case of a space-time random field. Explicit formulas are provided for each relevant case analysed. As a general result, we find, using an argument of positive-definiteness, that the power spectrum of the stochastically perturbed system is larger at all frequencies than the power spectrum of the unperturbed system. We provide an example of application of our results by considering the spatially extended chaotic Lorenz 96 model. These results clarify the property of stochastic stability of SRB measures in Axiom A flows, provide tools for analysing stochastic parameterisations and related closure ansatz to be implemented in modelling studies, and introduce new ways to study the response of a system to external perturbations. Taking into account the chaotic hypothesis, we expect that our results have practical relevance for a more general class of system than those belonging to Axiom A.

Mozzarella-type curd made from buffalo, cows’ and ultrafiltered cows’ milk. 1. Rheology and microstructure

Rennet-induced curd was made from both natural buffalo and cows’ milk, and ultrafiltered cows’ milk (cows’ milk was concentrated such that it had a chemical composition approximately equivalent to that of the buffalo milk). These milk samples were compared on the basis of their rheology, physicochemical characteristics and curd microstructure. The ionic and soluble calcium contents were found to be similar in all milk samples studied. The total and casein bound calcium were higher in concentrated cows’ milk than in standard cows’ milk. Both cows’ milk types were found to have lower total and casein bound calcium than the buffalo milk. This is probably due to concentration of the colloidal part of milk (casein), during the ultrafiltration (UF) process. The rennet coagulation time was similar in UF cows’ and buffalo milk while both were shorter when compared with that of the cows’ milk. The dynamic moduli (G′, G″) values were higher in both the buffalo and UF cows’ milk than in the cows’ milk after 90 min coagulation. The loss tangent, however, was found to be similar in both the UF cows’ and buffalo milk curds and was lower than that observed for the cows’ milk (0.42, 0.42 and 0.48, respectively). The frequency profile of each type of curd was recorded 90 min after the enzyme addition (0.1–10 Hz); all samples were found to be “weak” viscoelastic, frequency dependent gels. The yield stress was also measured 95 min after the enzyme addition, and a higher value was observed in buffalo milk curd when compared with other curd samples made from both the natural cows’ milk and the UF cows’ milk. The cryo-scanning electron and confocal laser scanning micrographs showed that curd structure appeared to be more “dense” and less porous in buffalo milk than cows’ milk even after concentration to equivalent levels of protein/total solids to those found in the buffalo milk.

Meal frequency; does it determine postprandial lipaemia?

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of altering meal frequency on postprandial lipaemia and associated parameters. DESIGN: A randomized open cross over study to examine the programming effects of altering meal frequency. A standard test meal was given on three occasions following: (i) the normal diet; (ii) a period of two weeks on a nibbling and (iii) a period of two weeks on a gorging diet. SETTING: Free living subjects associated with the University of Surrey. SUBJECTS: Eleven female volunteers (age 22 +/- 0.89 y) were recruited. INTERVENTIONS: The subjects were requested to consume the same foods on either a nibbling diet (12 meals per day) or a gorging diet (three meals per day) for a period of two weeks. The standard test meal containing 80 g fat, 63 g carbohydrate and 20 g protein was administered on the day prior to the dietary intervention and on the day following each period of intervention. MAJOR OUTCOME MEASURES: Fasting and postprandial blood samples were taken for the analysis of plasma triacylglycerol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, immunoreactive insulin, glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide levels (GIP) and glucagon-like peptide (GLP-1), fasting total, low density lipoprotein (LDL)- and high density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol concentrations and postheparin lipoprotein lipase (LPL) activity measurements. Plasma paracetamol was measured following administration of a 1.5 g paracetamol load with the meal as an index of gastric emptying. RESULTS: The compliance to the two dietary regimes was high and there were no significant differences between the nutrient intakes on the two intervention diets. There were no significant differences in fasting or postprandial plasma concentrations of triacylglycerol, non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, immunoreactive insulin, GIP and GLP-1 levels, in response to the standard test meal following the nibbling or gorging dietary regimes. There were no significant differences in fasting total or LDL-cholesterol concentrations, or in the 15 min postheparin lipoprotein lipase activity measurements. There was a significant increase in HDL-cholesterol in the subjects following the gorging diet compared to the nibbling diet. DISCUSSION: The results suggest that previous meal frequency for a period of two weeks in young healthy women does not alter the fasting or postprandial lipid or hormonal response to a standard high fat meal. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study did not confirm the previous studies which suggested that nibbling is beneficial in reducing the concentrations of lipid and hormones. The rigorous control of diet content and composition in the present study compared with others, suggest reported effects of meal frequency may be due to unintentional alteration in nutrient and energy intake in previous studies.