Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet will decline in volume in a warmer climate. If a sufficiently warm climate is maintained for a few thousand years, the ice sheet will be completely melted. This raises the question of whether the decline would be reversible: would the ice sheet regrow if the climate cooled down? To address this question, we conduct a number of experiments using a climate model and a high-resolution ice-sheet model. The experiments are initialised with ice sheet states obtained from various points during its decline as simulated in a high-CO2 scenario, and they are then forced with a climate simulated for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, to determine the possible trajectories of subsequent ice sheet evolution. These trajectories are not the reverse of the trajectory during decline. They converge on three different steady states. The original ice-sheet volume can be regained only if the volume has not fallen below a threshold of irreversibility, which lies between 80 and 90% of the original value. Depending on the degree of warming and the sensitivity of the climate and the ice-sheet, this point of no return could be reached within a few hundred years, sooner than CO2 and global climate could revert to a pre-industrial state, and in that case global sea level rise of at least 1.3 m would be irreversible. An even larger irreversible change to sea level rise of 5 m may occur if ice sheet volume drops below half of its current size. The set of steady states depends on the CO2 concentration. Since we expect the results to be quantitatively affected by resolution and other aspects of model formulation, we would encourage similar investigations with other models.

Bayesian estimation of co-integrating thresholds in the term structure of interest rates.

Threshold Error Correction Models are used to analyse the term structure of interest Rates. The paper develops and uses a generalisation of existing models that encompasses both the Band and Equilibrium threshold models of [Balke and Fomby ((1997) Threshold cointegration. Int Econ Rev 38(3):627–645)] and estimates this model using a Bayesian approach. Evidence is found for threshold effects in pairs of longer rates but not in pairs of short rates. The Band threshold model is supported in preference to the Equilibrium model.

Vegetation dynamics in abandoned crop fields on a Mediterranean island: Development of succession model and estimation of disturbance thresholds

This case study on the Sifnos island, Greece, assesses the main factors controlling vegetation succession following crop abandonment and describes the vegetation dynamics of maquis and phrygana formations in relation to alternative theories of secondary succession. Field survey data were collected and analysed at community as well as species level. The results show that vegetation succession on abandoned crop fields is determined by the combined effects of grazing intensity, soil and geological characteristics and time. The analysis determines the quantitative grazing thresholds that modify the successional pathway. Light grazing leads to dominance by maquis vegetation while overgrazing leads to phryganic vegetation. The proposed model shows that vegetation succession following crop abandonment is a complex multi-factor process where the final or the stable stage of the process is not predefined but depends on the factors affecting succession. An example of the use of succession models and disturbance thresholds as a policy assessment tool is presented by evaluating the likely vegetation impacts of the recent reform of the Common Agricultural Policy on Sifnos island over a 20-30-year time horizon. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fracture incidence in relation to the pattern of use of hormone therapy in postmenopausal women

Context: Evidence is limited on the effects of different patterns of use of postmenopausal hormone therapy on fracture incidence and particularly on the effects of ceasing use. Objective: To investigate the effect of different patterns of hormone therapy use on fracture incidence. Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective study of 138737 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 69 years recruited from the UK general population in 19961998 (the Million Women Study) and followed up for 1.9 to 3.9 years (average, 2.8 years) for fracture incidence. Main Outcome Measure: Adjusted relative risk (RR) for incident fracture (except fracture of the fingers, toes, and ribs) in hormone therapy users compared with never users at baseline. Results: A total of 5197 women (3.7%) reported 1 or more fractures, 79% resulting from falls. Current users of hormone therapy at baseline had a significantly reduced incidence of fracture (RR, 0.62; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.58-0.66; P<.001). This protection was evident soon after hormone therapy began, and the RR decreased with increasing duration of use (P=.001). Among current users at baseline the RR of fracture did not vary significantly according to whether estrogen-only, estrogen-progestin, or other types of hormones were used (RR [95% CI], 0.64 [0.58-0.71], 0.58 [0.53-0.64], and 0.67 [0.56-0.80], respectively; P=19), nor did it vary significantly according to estrogen dose or estrogen or progestin constituents. The RR associated with current use of hormone therapy did not vary significantly according to 11 personal characteristics of study participants, including their age at menopause, body mass index, and physical activity. Past users of hormone therapy at baseline experienced no significant protection against fractures (RR, 1.07; 95% CI, 0.99-1.15); incidence rates returned to those of never-users within about a year of ceasing use. Conclusions: All types of hormone therapy studied confer substantial protection against fracture while they are used. This protection appears rapidly after use commences and wears off rapidly after use ceases. The older women are, the greater is their absolute reduction in fracture incidence while using hormone therapy.

Modelling metal cutting using modern ductile fracture mechanics: Quantitative explanations for some longstanding problems

The assumption that negligible work is involved in the formation of new surfaces in the machining of ductile metals, is re-examined in the light of both current Finite Element Method (FEM) simulations of cutting and modern ductile fracture mechanics. The work associated with separation criteria in FEM models is shown to be in the kJ/m2 range rather than the few J/m2 of the surface energy (surface tension) employed by Shaw in his pioneering study of 1954 following which consideration of surface work has been omitted from analyses of metal cutting. The much greater values of surface specific work are not surprising in terms of ductile fracture mechanics where kJ/m2 values of fracture toughness are typical of the ductile metals involved in machining studies. This paper shows that when even the simple Ernst–Merchant analysis is generalised to include significant surface work, many of the experimental observations for which traditional ‘plasticity and friction only’ analyses seem to have no quantitative explanation, are now given meaning. In particular, the primary shear plane angle φ becomes material-dependent. The experimental increase of φ up to a saturated level, as the uncut chip thickness is increased, is predicted. The positive intercepts found in plots of cutting force vs. depth of cut, and in plots of force resolved along the primary shear plane vs. area of shear plane, are shown to be measures of the specific surface work. It is demonstrated that neglect of these intercepts in cutting analyses is the reason why anomalously high values of shear yield stress are derived at those very small uncut chip thicknesses at which the so-called size effect becomes evident. The material toughness/strength ratio, combined with the depth of cut to form a non-dimensional parameter, is shown to control ductile cutting mechanics. The toughness/strength ratio of a given material will change with rate, temperature, and thermomechanical treatment and the influence of such changes, together with changes in depth of cut, on the character of machining is discussed. Strength or hardness alone is insufficient to describe machining. The failure of the Ernst–Merchant theory seems less to do with problems of uniqueness and the validity of minimum work, and more to do with the problem not being properly posed. The new analysis compares favourably and consistently with the wide body of experimental results available in the literature. Why considerable progress in the understanding of metal cutting has been achieved without reference to significant surface work is also discussed.

Fracture toughness and cutting

An exploratory model for cutting is presented which incorporates fracture toughness as well as the commonly considered effects of plasticity and friction. The periodic load fluctuations Been in cutting force dynamometer tests are predicted, and considerations of chatter and surface finish follow. A non-dimensional group is put forward to classify different regimes of material response to machining. It leads to tentative explanations for the difficulties of cutting materials such as ceramics and brittlo polymers, and also relates to the formation of discontinuous chips. Experiments on a range of solids with widely varying toughness/strength ratios generally agree with the analysis.

Toughness & cutting: A new way of determining ductile fracture toughness and strength

A review is given of the mechanics of cutting, ranging from the slicing of thin floppy offcuts (where there is negligible elasticity and no permanent deformation of the offcut) to the machining of ductile metals (where there is severe permanent distortion of the offcut/chip). Materials scientists employ the former conditions to determine the fracture toughness of ‘soft’ solids such as biological materials and foodstuffs. In contrast, traditional analyses of metalcutting are based on plasticity and friction only, and do not incorporate toughness. The machining theories are inadequate in a number of ways but a recent paper has shown that when ductile work of fracture is included many, if not all, of the shortcomings are removed. Support for the new analysis is given by examination of FEM simulations of metalcutting which reveal that a ‘separation criterion’ has to be employed at the tool tip. Some consideration shows that the separation criteria are versions of void-initiation-growth-and-coalescence models employed in ductile fracture mechanics. The new analysis shows that cutting forces for ductile materials depend upon the fracture toughness as well as plasticity and friction, and reveals a simple way of determining both toughness and flow stress from cutting experiments. Examples are given for a wide range of materials including metals, polymers and wood, and comparison is made with the same properties independently determined using conventional testpieces. Because cutting can be steady state, a new way is presented for simultaneously measuring toughness and flow stress at controlled speeds and strain rates.

Measuring toughness and the cohesive stress-displacement relationship by the essential work of fracture concept

The complete fracture behaviour of ductile double edge notched tension (DENT) specimen is analysed with an approximate model, which is then used to discuss the essential work of fracture (EWF) concept. The model results are compared with the experimental results for an aluminium alloy 6082-O. The restrictions on the ligament size for valid application of the EWF method are discussed with the aid of the model. The model is used to suggest an improved method of obtaining the cohesive stress-displacement relationship for the fracture process zone (FPZ).

Mode I fracture of sheet metal

The perceived wisdom about thin sheet fracture is that (i) the crack propagates under mixed mode I & III giving rise to a slant through-thickness fracture profile and (ii) the fracture toughness remains constant at low thickness and eventually decreases with increasing thickness. In the present study, fracture tests performed on thin DENT plates of various thicknesses made of stainless steel, mild steel, 6082-O and NS4 aluminium alloys, brass, bronze, lead, and zinc systematically exhibit (i) mode I “bath-tub”, i.e. “cup & cup”, fracture profiles with limited shear lips and significant localized necking (more than 50% thickness reduction), (ii) a fracture toughness that linearly increases with increasing thickness (in the range of 0.5–5 mm). The different contributions to the work expended during fracture of these materials are separated based on dimensional considerations. The paper emphasises the two parts of the work spent in the fracture process zone: the necking work and the “fracture” work. Experiments show that, as expected, the work of necking per unit area linearly increases with thickness. For a typical thickness of 1 mm, both fracture and necking contributions have the same order of magnitude in most of the metals investigated. A model is developed in order to independently evaluate the work of necking, which successfully predicts the experimental values. Furthermore, it enables the fracture energy to be derived from tests performed with only one specimen thickness. In a second modelling step, the work of fracture is computed using an enhanced void growth model valid in the quasi plane stress regime. The fracture energy varies linearly with the yield stress and void spacing and is a strong function of the hardening exponent and initial void volume fraction. The coupling of the two models allows the relative contributions of necking versus fracture to be quantified with respect to (i) the two length scales involved in this problem, i.e. the void spacing and the plate thickness, and (ii) the flow properties of the material. Each term can dominate depending on the properties of the material which explains the different behaviours reported in the literature about thin plate fracture toughness and its dependence with thickness.

Investigation of the fracture mode for hard and soft wheat endosperm using the loading-unloading bending test

Investigation of the fracture mode for hard and soft wheat endosperm was aimed at gaining a better understanding of the fragmentation process. Fracture mechanical characterization was based on the three-point bending test which enables stable crack propagation to take place in small rectangular pieces of wheat endosperm. The crack length can be measured in situ by using an optical microscope with light illumination from the side of the specimen or from the back of the specimen. Two new techniques were developed and used to estimate the fracture toughness of wheat endosperm, a geometric approach and a compliance method. The geometric approach gave average fracture toughness values of 53.10 and 27.0 J m(-2) for hard and soft endosperm, respectively. Fracture toughness estimated using the compliance method gave values of 49.9 and 29.7 J m(-2) for hard and soft endosperm, respectively. Compressive properties of the endosperm in three mutually perpendicular axes revealed that the hard and soft endosperms are isotropic composites. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) observation of the fracture surfaces and the energy-time curves of loading-unloading cycles revealed that there was a plastic flow during crack propagation for both the hard and soft endosperms, and confirmed that the fracture mode is significantly related to the adhesion level between starch granules and the protein matrix.

Rate-dependent fracture toughness of polycrystalline ice

A series of three-point bend tests using single edge notched testpieces of pure polycrystalline ice have been performed at three different temperatures (–20°C, –30°C and –40°C). The displacement rate was varied from 1 mm/min to 100 mm/min, producing the crack tip strain rates from about 10–3 to 10–1 s–1. The results show that (a) the fracture toughness of pure polycrystalline ice given by the critical stress intensity factor (K IC) is much lower than that measured from the J—integral under identical conditions; (b) from the determination of K IC, the fracture toughness of pure polycrystalline ice decreases with increasing strain rate and there is good power law relationship between them; (c) from the measurement of the J—integral, a different tendency was appeared: when the crack tip strain rate exceeds a critical value of 6 × 10–3 s–1, the fracture toughness is almost constant but when the crack tip strain rate is less than this value, the fracture toughness increases with decreasing crack tip strain rate. Re-examination of the mechanisms of rate-dependent fracture toughness of pure polycrystalline ice shows that the effect of strain rate is related not only to the blunting of crack tips due to plasticity, creep and stress relaxation but also to the nucleation and growth of microcracks in the specimen.