On the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean to changes in the global freshwater cycle

Under global warming, the predicted intensification of the global freshwater cycle will modify the net freshwater flux at the ocean surface. Since the freshwater flux maintains ocean salinity structures, changes to the density-driven ocean circulation are likely. A modified ocean circulation could further alter the climate, potentially allowing rapid changes, as seen in the past. The relevant feedback mechanisms and timescales are poorly understood in detail, however, especially at low latitudes where the effects of salinity are relatively subtle. In an attempt to resolve some of these outstanding issues, we present an investigation of the climate response of the low-latitude Pacific region to changes in freshwater forcing. Initiated from the present-day thermohaline structure, a control run of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model is compared with a perturbation run in which the net freshwater flux is prescribed to be zero over the ocean. Such an extreme experiment helps to elucidate the general adjustment mechanisms and their timescales. The atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are held constant, and we restrict our attention to the adjustment of the upper 1,000 m of the Pacific Ocean between 40°N and 40°S, over 100 years. In the perturbation run, changes to the surface buoyancy, near-surface vertical mixing and mixed-layer depth are established within 1 year. Subsequently, relative to the control run, the surface of the low-latitude Pacific Ocean in the perturbation run warms by an average of 0.6°C, and the interior cools by up to 1.1°C, after a few decades. This vertical re-arrangement of the ocean heat content is shown to be achieved by a gradual shutdown of the heat flux due to isopycnal (i.e. along surfaces of constant density) mixing, the vertical component of which is downwards at low latitudes. This heat transfer depends crucially upon the existence of density-compensating temperature and salinity gradients on isopycnal surfaces. The timescale of the thermal changes in the perturbation run is therefore set by the timescale for the decay of isopycnal salinity gradients in response to the eliminated freshwater forcing, which we demonstrate to be around 10-20 years. Such isopycnal heat flux changes may play a role in the response of the low-latitude climate to a future accelerated freshwater cycle. Specifically, the mechanism appears to represent a weak negative sea surface temperature feedback, which we speculate might partially shield from view the anthropogenically-forced global warming signal at low latitudes. Furthermore, since the surface freshwater flux is shown to play a role in determining the ocean's thermal structure, it follows that evaporation and/or precipitation biases in general circulation models are likely to cause sea surface temperature biases.

El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble

The modelled El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in 23 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs, including the recent IPCC AR4 models, are assessed and compared to observations and theory. The models show a clear improvement over previous generations in simulating the tropical Pacific climatology. Systematic biases still include too strong mean and seasonal cycle of trade winds. El Nino amplitude is shown to be an inverse function of the mean trade winds in agreement with the observed shift of 1976 and with theoretical studies. El Nino amplitude is further shown to be an inverse function of the relative strength of the seasonal cycle. When most of the energy is within the seasonal cycle, little is left for inter-annual signals and vice versa. An interannual coupling strength (ICS) is defined and its relation with the modelled El Nino frequency is compared to that predicted by theoretical models. An assessment of the modelled El Nino in term of SST mode (S-mode) or thermocline mode (T-mode) shows that most models are locked into a S-mode and that only a few models exhibit a hybrid mode, like in observations. It is concluded that several basic El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle relationships proposed by either theory or analysis of observations seem to be reproduced by CGCMs. This is especially true for the amplitude of El Nino and is less clear for its frequency. Most of these relationships, first established for the pre-industrial control simulations, hold for the double and quadruple CO2 stabilized scenarios. The models that exhibit the largest El Nino amplitude change in these greenhouse gas (GHG) increase scenarios are those that exhibit a mode change towards a T-mode (either from S-mode to hybrid or hybrid to T-mode). This follows the observed 1976 climate shift in the tropical Pacific, and supports the-still debated-finding of studies that associated this shift to increased GHGs. In many respects, these models are also among those that best simulate the tropical Pacific climatology (ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MRI-CGM2.3.2, UKMO-HadCM3). Results from this large subset of models suggest the likelihood of increased El Nino amplitude in a warmer climate, though there is considerable spread of El Nino behaviour among the models and the changes in the subsurface thermocline properties that may be important for El Nino change could not be assessed. There are no clear indications of an El Nino frequency change with increased GHG.

A lagged response to the 11 year solar cycle in observed winter Atlantic/European weather patterns

The surface response to 11 year solar cycle variations is investigated by analyzing the long-term mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature observations for the period 1870–2010. The analysis reveals a statistically significant 11 year solar signal over Europe, and the North Atlantic provided that the data are lagged by a few years. The delayed signal resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) following a solar maximum. The corresponding sea surface temperature response is consistent with this. A similar analysis is performed on long-term climate simulations from a coupled ocean-atmosphere version of the Hadley Centre model that has an extended upper lid so that influences of solar variability via the stratosphere are well resolved. The model reproduces the positive NAO signal over the Atlantic/European sector, but the lag of the surface response is not well reproduced. Possible mechanisms for the lagged nature of the observed response are discussed.

Including an ocean carbon cycle model into iLOVECLIM (v1.0)

The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration plays a crucial role in the radiative balance and as such has a strong influence on the evolution of climate. Because of the numerous interactions between climate and the carbon cycle, it is necessary to include a model of the carbon cycle within a climate model to understand and simulate past and future changes of the carbon cycle. In particular, natural variations of atmospheric CO2 have happened in the past, while anthropogenic carbon emissions are likely to continue in the future. To study changes of the carbon cycle and climate on timescales of a few hundred to a few thousand years, we have included a simple carbon cycle model into the iLOVECLIM Earth System Model. In this study, we describe the ocean and terrestrial biosphere carbon cycle models and their performance relative to observational data. We focus on the main carbon cycle variables including the carbon isotope ratios δ13C and the Δ14C. We show that the model results are in good agreement with modern observations both at the surface and in the deep ocean for the main variables, in particular phosphates, dissolved inorganic carbon and the carbon isotopes.