A forward constrained selection algorithm for probabilistic neural network

A new probabilistic neural network (PNN) learning algorithm based on forward constrained selection (PNN-FCS) is proposed. An incremental learning scheme is adopted such that at each step, new neurons, one for each class, are selected from the training samples arid the weights of the neurons are estimated so as to minimize the overall misclassification error rate. In this manner, only the most significant training samples are used as the neurons. It is shown by simulation that the resultant networks of PNN-FCS have good classification performance compared to other types of classifiers, but much smaller model sizes than conventional PNN.

Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade by pertussis toxin-sensitive and -insensitive pathways in cultured ventricular cardiomyocytes.

The involvement of pertussis toxin (PTX)-sensitive and -insensitive pathways in the activation of the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade was examined in ventricular cardiomyocytes cultured from neonatal rats. A number of agonists that activate heterotrimeric G-protein-coupled receptors stimulated MAPK activity after exposure for 5 min. These included foetal calf serum (FCS), endothelin-1 (these two being the most effective of the agonists examined), phenylephrine, endothelin-3, lysophosphatidic acid, carbachol, isoprenaline and angiotensin II. Activation of MAPK and MAPK kinase (MEK) by carbachol returned to control levels within 30-60 min, whereas activation by FCS was more sustained. FPLC on Mono Q showed that carbachol and FCS activated two peaks of MEK and two peaks of MAPK (p42MAPK and p44MAPK). Pretreatment of cells with PTX for 24 h inhibited the activation of MAPK by carbachol, FCS and lysophosphatidic acid, but not that by endothelin-1, phenylephrine or isoprenaline. Involvement of G-proteins in the activation of the cardiac MAPK cascade was demonstrated by the sustained (PTX-insensitive) activation of MAPK (and MEK) after exposure of cells to AlF4-. AlF4- activated PtdIns hydrolysis, as did endothelin-1, endothelin-3, phenylephrine and FCS. In contrast, the effect of lysophosphatidic acid on PtdIns hydrolysis was small and carbachol was without significant effect even after prolonged exposure. We conclude that PTX-sensitive (i.e. Gi/G(o)-linked) and PTX-insensitive (i.e. Gq/Gs-linked) pathways of MAPK activation exist in neonatal ventricular myocytes. FCS may stimulate the MAPK cascade through both pathways.