Tephra fallout hazard assessment for a Plinian eruption scenario at Volcán de Colima (Mexico)

Volcanic ash fallout associated with renewal of explosive activity at Colima, represents a serious threat to the surrounding urbanized area. Here we assess the tephra fallout hazard associated with a Plinian eruption scenario. The eruptive history of Volcán de Colima shows that Plinian eruptions occur approximately every 100 years and the last eruption, the 1913, represents the largest historic eruption of this volcano. We used the last eruption as a reference to discuss volcanic hazard and risk scenarios connected with ash fallout. Tephra fallout deposits are modeled using HAZMAP, a model based on a semi-analytical solution of the advection– diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic particles. Based on a statistical study of wind profiles at Colima region, we first reconstructed ash loading maps and then computed ground load probability maps for different seasons. The obtained results show that a Plinian eruptive scenario at Volcán de Colima, could seriously damage more than 10 small towns and ranches, and potentially affect big cities located at tens of kilometers from the eruptive center. The probability maps obtained are aimed to give support to the risk mitigation strategies

Genotype x environment interaction in the uptake of Cs and Sr from soils by plants

The soil-plant transfer factors for Cs and Sr were analyzed in relationship to soil properties, crops, and varieties of crops. Two crops and two varieties of each crop: lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.), cv. Salad Bowl Green and cv. Lobjoits Green Cos, and radish (Raphanus sativus L.), cv. French Breakfast 3 and cv. Scarlet Globe, were grown on five different soils amended with Cs and Sr to give concentrations of 1 mg kg(-1) and 50 mg kg(-1) of each element. Soil-plant transfer coefficients ranged between 0.12-19.10 (Cs) and 1.48-146.10 (Sr) for lettuce and 0.09-13.24 (Cs) and 2.99-93.00 (Sr) for radish. Uptake of Cs and Sr by plants depended on both plant and soil properties. There were significant (P less than or equal to 0.05) differences between soil-plant transfer factors for each plant type at the two soil concentrations. At each soil concentration about 60% of the variance in the uptake of the Cs and Sr was due to soil properties. For a given concentration of Cs or Sr in soil, the most important factor effecting soil-plant transfer of these elements was the soil properties rather than the crops or varieties of crops. Therefore, for the varieties considered here, soil-plant transfer of Cs and Sr would be best regulated through the management of soil properties. At each concentration of Cs and Sr, the main soil properties effecting the uptake of Cs and Sr by lettuce and radish were the concentrations of K and Ca, pH and CEC. Together with the concentrations of contaminants in soils, they explained about 80% of total data variance, and were the best predictors for soil-plant transfer. The different varieties of lettuce and radish gave different responses in soil-plant transfer of Cs and Sr in different soil conditions, i.e. genotype x environment interaction caused about 30% of the variability in the uptake of Cs and Sr by plants. This means that a plant variety with a low soil-plant transfer of Cs and Sr in one soil could have an increased soil-plant transfer factor in other soils. The broad implications of this work are that in contaminated agricultural lands still used for plant growing, contaminant-excluding crop varieties may not be a reliable method for decreasing contaminant transfer to foodstuffs. Modification of soil properties would be a more reliable technique. This is particularly relevant to agricultural soils in the former USSR still affected by fallout from the Chernobyl disaster.

Evaluation of a large-eddy model simulation of a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud using microwave radiometer, lidar and Doppler radar data

Using the Met Office large-eddy model (LEM) we simulate a mixed-phase altocumulus cloud that was observed from Chilbolton in southern England by a 94 GHz Doppler radar, a 905 nm lidar, a dual-wavelength microwave radiometer and also by four radiosondes. It is important to test and evaluate such simulations with observations, since there are significant differences between results from different cloud-resolving models for ice clouds. Simulating the Doppler radar and lidar data within the LEM allows us to compare observed and modelled quantities directly, and allows us to explore the relationships between observed and unobserved variables. For general-circulation models, which currently tend to give poor representations of mixed-phase clouds, the case shows the importance of using: (i) separate prognostic ice and liquid water, (ii) a vertical resolution that captures the thin layers of liquid water, and (iii) an accurate representation the subgrid vertical velocities that allow liquid water to form. It is shown that large-scale ascents and descents are significant for this case, and so the horizontally averaged LEM profiles are relaxed towards observed profiles to account for these. The LEM simulation then gives a reasonable. cloud, with an ice-water path approximately two thirds of that observed, with liquid water at the cloud top, as observed. However, the liquid-water cells that form in the updraughts at cloud top in the LEM have liquid-water paths (LWPs) up to half those observed, and there are too few cells, giving a mean LWP five to ten times smaller than observed. In reality, ice nucleation and fallout may deplete ice-nuclei concentrations at the cloud top, allowing more liquid water to form there, but this process is not represented in the model. Decreasing the heterogeneous nucleation rate in the LEM increased the LWP, which supports this hypothesis. The LEM captures the increase in the standard deviation in Doppler velocities (and so vertical winds) with height, but values are 1.5 to 4 times smaller than observed (although values are larger in an unforced model run, this only increases the modelled LWP by a factor of approximately two). The LEM data show that, for values larger than approximately 12 cm s(-1), the standard deviation in Doppler velocities provides an almost unbiased estimate of the standard deviation in vertical winds, but provides an overestimate for smaller values. Time-smoothing the observed Doppler velocities and modelled mass-squared-weighted fallspeeds shows that observed fallspeeds are approximately two-thirds of the modelled values. Decreasing the modelled fallspeeds to those observed increases the modelled IWC, giving an IWP 1.6 times that observed.

Electrification of volcanic plumes

Volcanic lightning, perhaps the most spectacular consequence of the electrification of volcanic plumes, has been implicated in the origin of life on Earth, and may also exist in other planetary atmospheres. Recent years have seen volcanic lightning detection used as part of a portfolio of developing techniques to monitor volcanic eruptions. Remote sensing measurement techniques have been used to monitor volcanic lightning, but surface observations of the atmospheric electric Potential Gradient (PG) and the charge carried on volcanic ash also show that many volcanic plumes, whilst not sufficiently electrified to produce lightning, have detectable electrification exceeding that of their surrounding environment. Electrification has only been observed associated with ash-rich explosive plumes, but there is little evidence that the composition of the ash is critical to its occurrence. Different conceptual theories for charge generation and separation in volcanic plumes have been developed to explain the disparate observations obtained, but the ash fragmentation mechanism appears to be a key parameter. It is unclear which mechanisms or combinations of electrification mechanisms dominate in different circumstances. Electrostatic forces play an important role in modulating the dry fallout of ash from a volcanic plume. Beyond the local electrification of plumes, the higher stratospheric particle concentrations following a large explosive eruption may affect the global atmospheric electrical circuit. It is possible that this might present another, if minor, way by which large volcanic eruptions affect global climate. The direct hazard of volcanic lightning to communities is generally low compared to other aspects of volcanic activity.

A naked ape would have fewer parasites

Unusually among the mammals, humans lack an outer layer of protective fur or hair. We propose the hypothesis that humans evolved hairlessness to reduce parasite loads, especially ectoparasites that may carry disease. We suggest that hairlessness is maintained by these naturally selected benefits and by sexual selection operating on both sexes. Hairlessness is made possible in humans owing to their unique abilities to regulate their environment via fire, shelter and clothing. Clothes and shelters allow a more flexible response to the external environment than a permanent layer of fur and can be changed or cleaned if infested with parasites. Naked mole-rats, another hairless and non-aquatic mammal species, also inhabit environments in which ectoparasite transmission is expected to be high, but in which temperatures are closely regulated. Our hypothesis explains features of human hairlessness-such as the marked sex difference in body hair, and its retention in the pubic regions-that are not explained by other theories.

Multiple diversity measures to identify complementary conservation areas for the Baja California peninsular cacti

The Baja California Peninsula is home to 85 species of cacti, of which 54 are endemic, highlighting its importance as a cactus diverse region within Mexico. Many species are under threat due to collection pressure and habitat loss, but ensuring maximal protection of cacti species requires a better understanding of diversity patterns. We assessed species richness, endemism, and phylogenetic and morphological diversity using herbarium records and a molecular phylogeny for 82 species of cacti found in the peninsula. The four diversity measures were estimated for the existing nature reserve network and for 314 hexagrids of 726 km2. Using the hexagrid data, we surveyed our results for areas that best complement the current protected cacti diversity in the Baja California Peninsula. Currently, the natural reserve network in Baja shelters an important amount of the cacti diversity (74% of the species, 85.9% of the phylogenetic diversity, 76% of endemics and all the growth forms). While species richness produced several solutions to complement the diversity protected, by identifying priority species (endemic species with high contribution to overall PD) one best solution is reported. Three areas (San Matías, Magdalena and Margarita Islands and El Triunfo), selected using species richness, PD and endemism, best complement the diversity currently protected, increasing species richness to 89%, PD to 94% and endemism to 89%, and should be considered in future conservation plans. Two of these areas could be included within nature reserves already established.

Ultra-distal tephra deposits from super-eruptions: examples from Toba, Indonesia and Taupo Volcanic Zone, New Zealand

Voluminous rhyolitic eruptions from Toba, Indonesia, and Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ), New Zealand, have dispersed volcanic ash over vast areas in the late Quaternary. The ~74 ka Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT) eruption deposited ash over the Bay of Bengal and the Indian subcontinent to the west. The ~340 ka Whakamaru eruption (TVZ) deposited the widespread Rangitawa Tephra, dominantly to the southeast (in addition to occurrences northwest of vent), extending across the landmass of New Zealand, and the South Pacific Ocean and Tasman Sea, with distal terrestrial exposures on the Chatham Islands. These super-eruptions involved ~2500 km^3 and ~1500 km3 of magma (dense-rock equivalent; DRE), respectively. Ultra-distal terrestrial exposures of YTT at two localities in India, Middle Son Valley, Madhya Pradesh, and Jurreru River Valley, Andhra Pradesh, at distances of >2000 km from the source caldera, show a basal ‘primary’ ashfall unit ~4 cm thick, although deposits containing reworked ash are up to ~3 m in total thickness. Exposures of Rangitawa Tephra on the Chatham Islands, >900 km from the source caldera, are ~15-30 cm thick. At more proximal localities (~200 km from source), Rangitawa Tephra is ~55-70 cm thick and characterized by a crystal-rich basal layer and normal grading. Both distal tephra deposits are characterized by very-fine ash (with high PM10 fractions) and are crystal-poor. Glass chemistry, stratigraphy and grain-size data for these distal tephra deposits are presented with comparisons of their correlation, dispersal and preservation. Using field observations, ash transport and deposition were modeled for both eruptions using a semi-analytical model (HAZMAP), with assumptions concerning average wind direction and strength during eruption, column shape and vent size. Model outputs provide new insights into eruption dynamics and better estimates of eruption volumes associ- ated with tephra fallout. Modeling based on observed YTT distal tephra thicknesses indicate a relatively low (<40 km high), very turbulent eruption column, consistent with deposition from a co-ignimbrite cloud extending over a broad region. Similarly, the Whakamaru eruption was modeled as producing a predominantly Plinian column (~45 km high), with dispersal to the southeast by strong prevailing winds. Significant ash fallout of the main dispersal direction, to the northwest of source, cannot be replicated in this modeling. The widespread dispersal of large volumes of fine ash from both eruptions may have had global environmental consequences, acutely affecting areas up to thousands of kilometers from vent.

Ice crystals growing from vapor in supercooled clouds between −2.5° and −22°C: testing current parameterization methods using laboratory data

The physical and empirical relationships used by microphysics schemes to control the rate at which vapor is transferred to ice crystals growing in supercooled clouds are compared with laboratory data to evaluate the realism of various model formulations. Ice crystal growth rates predicted from capacitance theory are compared with measurements from three independent laboratory studies. When the growth is diffusion- limited, the predicted growth rates are consistent with the measured values to within about 20% in 14 of the experiments analyzed, over the temperature range −2.5° to −22°C. Only two experiments showed significant disagreement with theory (growth rate overestimated by about 30%–40% at −3.7° and −10.6°C). Growth predictions using various ventilation factor parameterizations were also calculated and compared with supercooled wind tunnel data. It was found that neither of the standard parameterizations used for ventilation adequately described both needle and dendrite growth; however, by choosing habit-specific ventilation factors from previous numerical work it was possible to match the experimental data in both regimes. The relationships between crystal mass, capacitance, and fall velocity were investigated based on the laboratory data. It was found that for a given crystal size the capacitance was significantly overestimated by two of the microphysics schemes considered here, yet for a given crystal mass the growth rate was underestimated by those same schemes because of unrealistic mass/size assumptions. The fall speed for a given capacitance (controlling the residence time of a crystal in the supercooled layer relative to its effectiveness as a vapor sink, and the relative importance of ventilation effects) was found to be overpredicted by all the schemes in which fallout is permitted, implying that the modeled crystals reside for too short a time within the cloud layer and that the parameterized ventilation effect is too strong.

A study of the arrival over the United Kingdom in April 2010 of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud using ground-based lidar and numerical simulations

We make a qualitative and quantitative comparison of numericalsimulations of the ashcloud generated by the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April2010 with ground-basedlidar measurements at Exeter and Cardington in southern England. The numericalsimulations are performed using the Met Office’s dispersion model, NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment). The results show that NAME captures many of the features of the observed ashcloud. The comparison enables us to estimate the fraction of material which survives the near-source fallout processes and enters into the distal plume. A number of simulations are performed which show that both the structure of the ashcloudover southern England and the concentration of ash within it are particularly sensitive to the height of the eruption column (and the consequent estimated mass emission rate), to the shape of the vertical source profile and the level of prescribed ‘turbulent diffusion’ (representing the mixing by the unresolved eddies) in the free troposphere with less sensitivity to the timing of the start of the eruption and the sedimentation of particulates in the distal plume.

New evidence from Southern Jordan: rethinking the role of architecture in changing societies at the beginning of the Neolithic process

The development of architecture and the settlement is central to discussions concerning the Neolithic transformation asthe very visible evidence for the changes in society that run parallel to the domestication of plants and animals. Architecture hasbeen used as an important aspect of models of how the transformation occurred, and as evidence for the sharp difference betweenhunter-gatherer and farming societies. We suggest that the emerging evidence for considerable architectural complexity from theearly Neolithic indicates that some of our interpretations depend too much on a very basic understanding of structures which arenormally seen as being primarily for residential purposes and containing households, which become the organising principle for thenew communities which are often seen as fully sedentary and described as villages. Recent work in southern Jordan suggests that inthis region at least there is little evidence for a standard house, and that structures are constructed for a range of diverse primary purposes other than simple domestic shelters.

Performance as social practice

Starting point for these outputs is a large scale research project in collaboration with the Zurich University for the Arts and the Kunstmuseum Thun, looking at a redefinition of Social Sculpture (Joseph Beuys/ Bazon Brock, 1970) as a functional device re-deployed to expand the art discourse into a societal discourse. Although Beuys‘ version of a social sculpture involved notions of abstruse mysticism and reformulations of a national identity these were never-the less part of a social transformation that shifted and re-arranged power relations. Following Laclau and Mouffe in their contention that democray is a fundamentally antagonistic process and contesting Grant Kester’s understanding of a ethically based relational practice, this work is alignes itself with Hirschhorn’s claim to an aesthetic practice within communities, following the possibility to view a socially based practice from both ends of the ethics debate, whereby ethical aspects fuels the aethetic to “create situations that are beautiful because they are ethical and shocking because they are ethical, thus in turn aesthetic because they are ethical” (O’Donnell). This project sets out to engage in activities which interact with surrounding communities and evoce new imaginations of site, thereby understanding site as a catalysts for subjective emergences. Performance is tested as a site for social practice. Archival research into local audio/visual resources, such as the Swiss Radio Archive, the Swiss Military Film Archives and zoological film archives of the Basel Zoo, was instrumental to the navigation of this work, under theme of crisis, catastrophy, landscape, fallout, in order to create a visual language for an active performance site. Commissioned by the Kunstmuseum Thun in collaboration with the University for the Arts in Zurich as part of a year long exhibition programme, (other artists are Jeanne Van Heeswijk (NL) and San Keller (CH), ) this project brings together a series of different works in a new performace installation. The performance process includes a performance workshop with 30 school children from local Swiss schools and their teachers, which was conducted publicly in the museum spaces. It enabled the children to engage with an unexpected set of tribal and animalistic behaviours, looking at situations of flight and rescue, resulting in a large performance choreography orchestration without an apparent conductor, it includes a collaboration with renowned Swiss zoologist, Prof Klaus Zuberbühler(University of St Andrews) and the Colonal General Haldimann commander of the military base in Thun. The installation included 2 static video images, shot in an around spectacular local cave site (Beatus Caves) including 3 children. The project will culminate in an edited edition of the Oncurating Journal, (issue no, tbc, in 2012) including interviews and essays from project collaborators. (Army Commander General, Thun, Jörg Hess, performance script, Timothy Long, and others)

Brief communication. Rain effect on the load of tephra deposits

Accumulation of tephra fallout produced during explosive eruptions can cause roof collapses in areas near the volcano, when the weight of the deposit exceeds some threshold value that depends on the quality of buildings. The additional loading of water that remains trapped in the tephra deposits due to rainfall can contribute to increasing the loading of the deposits on the roofs. Here we propose a simple approach to estimate an upper bound for the contribution of rain to the load of pyroclastic deposits that is useful for hazard assessment purposes. As case study we present an application of the method in the area of Naples, Italy, for a reference eruption from Vesuvius volcano.

Numerical simulation of tephra transport and deposition of the 1982 El Chichón eruption and implications for hazard assessment

El Chichón volcano, Chiapas, Mexico, erupted explosively on March 29th, 1982, after a repose period of about 550 years. Amongst ten eruptive episodes documented between March 29th and April 4th, only the three that occurred on March 29th and April 4th produced significant pyroclastic tephra deposits. Here we use analytical (HAZMAP) and numerical (FALL3D) tephra transport models to reconstruct the deposits and the atmospheric plume dispersal associated with the three main fallout units of the 1982 eruption. On the basis of such a reconstruction, we produce hazard maps of tephra fallout associated to a Plinian eruption and discuss the implications of such a severe eruption scenario.

Moderate drought alters biomass and depth distribution of fine roots in Norway spruce

A rain shelter experiment was conducted in a 90-year-old Norway spruce stand, in the Kysucké Beskydy Mts (Slovakia). Three rain shelters were constructed in the stand to prevent the rainfall from reaching the soil and to reduce water availability in the rhizosphere. Fine root biomass and necromass were repeatedly measured throughout a growing season by soil coring. We established the quantities of fine root biomass (live) and necromass (dead) at soil depths of 0-5, 5-15, 15-25, and 25-35 cm. Significant differences in soil moisture contents between control and drought plots were found in the top 15 cm of soil after 20 weeks of rainfall manipulation (lasting from early June to late October). Our observations show that even relatively light drought decreased total fine root biomass from 272.0 to 242.8 g m-2 and increased the amount of necromass from 79.2 to 101.2 g m-2 in the top 35 cm of soil. Very fine roots, i.e. those with diameter up to 1 mm, were more affected than total fine roots defined as 0-2 mm. The effect of reduced water availability was depth-specific, as a result we observed a modification of vertical distribution of fine roots. More roots in drought treatment were produced in the wetter soil horizons at 25-35 cm depth than at the surface. We conclude that fine and very fine root systems of Norway spruce have the capacity to re-allocate resources to roots at different depths in response to environmental signals, resulting in changes in necromass to biomass ratio.

A mixed-phase bulk orographic precipitation model with embedded convection

A novel analytical model for mixed-phase, unblocked and unseeded orographic precipitation with embedded convection is developed and evaluated. The model takes an idealised background flow and terrain geometry, and calculates the area-averaged precipitation rate and other microphysical quantities. The results provide insight into key physical processes, including cloud condensation, vapour deposition, evaporation, sublimation, as well as precipitation formation and sedimentation (fallout). To account for embedded convection in nominally stratiform clouds, diagnostics for purely convective and purely stratiform clouds are calculated independently and combined using weighting functions based on relevant dynamical and microphysical time scales. An in-depth description of the model is presented, as well as a quantitative assessment of its performance against idealised, convection-permitting numerical simulations with a sophisticated microphysics parameterisation. The model is found to accurately reproduce the simulation diagnostics over most of the parameter space considered.