Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Posttraumatic stress symptoms in London school children following September 11, 2001: an exploratory investigation of peri-traumatic reactions and intrusive imagery

Threatening intrusive images are central to posttraumatic stress disorder. It has been suggested that intrusive imagery in the context of a sense of threat leads to the development and persistence of posttraumatic stress symptoms. This study investigates London school children's (N = 76; age 10-11 years) self-reported posttraumatic stress symptoms in response to viewing the attacks of September 11, 2001 on television. Assessments were made at two time points. A minority of participants reported moderate-severe symptoms with functional impairment at 2 months (14.5%) and 6 months (9.2%) after viewing the September 11events. After controlling for symptom stability, persistent symptoms were associated with peri-traumatic factors, notably perceiving that one's life was in danger. The combined effect of intrusive imagery and peri-traumatic life threat was associated with symptom persistence. Assessments of intrusive image content via checklist and free-report indicated that the images were directly related to September 11 and were fairly stable over time. Implications for treating children's intrusive images following stressful events are explored. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Treatment of child anxiety. an exploratory study of the role of maternal anxiety and behaviours in treatment outcome

Anxiety disorders are common among parents of anxious children and have been found to impede child treatment outcomes, yet it is unclear whether it is parental anxiety that needs to be targeted in therapy or associated parental behaviours. Twenty-two children (6-12 years) with a current anxiety disorder and their mothers received cognitive-behavioural treatment (CBT) for child anxiety. In addition, of the 12 mothers who met criteria for a current anxiety disorder, 6 received CBT for their own disorder. Assessments were made of the mother-child interaction. The main findings were: (1) children did less well from treatment where their mothers had a current anxiety disorder; (2) treatment of maternal anxiety disorder did not improve child treatment outcome; and (3) maternal overinvolvement and expression of fear was associated with child treatment outcome. The results suggest that in the context of maternal anxiety disorder, child treatment outcome may be improved by specifically targeting parenting behaviours. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An exploratory study of the effect of aspect-oriented programming on maintainability

In this paper we describe an exploratory assessment of the effect of aspect-oriented programming on software maintainability. An experiment was conducted in which 11 software professionals were asked to carry out maintenance tasks on one of two programs. The first program was written in Java and the second in AspectJ. Both programs implement a shopping system according to the same set of requirements. A number of statistical hypotheses were tested. The results did seem to suggest a slight advantage for the subjects using the object-oriented system since in general it took the subjects less time to answer the questions on this system. Also, both systems appeared to be equally difficult to modify. However, the results did not show a statistically significant influence of aspect-oriented programming at the 5% level. We are aware that the results of this single small study cannot be generalized. We conclude that more empirical research is necessary in this area to identify the benefits of aspect-oriented programming and we hope that this paper will encourage such research.

Knowledge and information evaluation practice: an exploratory study in a construction firm

There are a number of challenges associated with managing knowledge and information in construction organizations delivering major capital assets. These include the ever-increasing volumes of information, losing people because of retirement or competitors, the continuously changing nature of information, lack of methods on eliciting useful knowledge, development of new information technologies and changes in management and innovation practices. Existing tools and methodologies for valuing intangible assets in fields such as engineering, project management and financial, accounting, do not address fully the issues associated with the valuation of information and knowledge. Information is rarely recorded in a way that a document can be valued, when either produced or subsequently retrieved and re-used. In addition there is a wealth of tacit personal knowledge which, if codified into documentary information, may prove to be very valuable to operators of the finished asset or future designers. This paper addresses the problem of information overload and identifies the differences between data, information and knowledge. An exploratory study was conducted with a leading construction consultant examining three perspectives (business, project management and document management) by structured interviews and specifically how to value information in practical terms. Major challenges in information management are identified. An through-life Information Evaluation methodology (IEM) is presented to reduce information overload and to make the information more valuable in the future.