38 resultados para exeter
em CentAUR: Central Archive University of Reading - UK
Resumo:
The purpose of Research Theme 4 (RT4) was to advance understanding of the basic science issues at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, focusing on the key processes that govern climate variability and change, and that determine the predictability of climate. Particular attention was given to understanding linear and non-linear feedbacks that may lead to climate surprises,and to understanding the factors that govern the probability of extreme events. Improved understanding of these issues will contribute significantly to the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seasonal to decadal predictions and projections of climate change. RT4 exploited the ENSEMBLES integrations (stream 1) performed in RT2A as well as undertaking its own experimentation to explore key processes within the climate system. It was working at the cutting edge of problems related to climate feedbacks, the interaction between climate variability and climate change � especially how climate change pertains to extreme events, and the predictability of the climate system on a range of time-scales. The statisticalmethodologies developed for extreme event analysis are new and state-of-the-art. The RT4-coordinated experiments, which have been conducted with six different atmospheric GCMs forced by common timeinvariant sea surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice fields (removing some sources of inter-model variability), are designed to help to understand model uncertainty (rather than scenario or initial condition uncertainty) in predictions of the response to greenhouse-gas-induced warming. RT4 links strongly with RT5 on the evaluation of the ENSEMBLES prediction system and feeds back its results to RT1 to guide improvements in the Earth system models and, through its research on predictability, to steer the development of methods for initialising the ensembles
Resumo:
The well-known Quaternary section at Godrevy, west Cornwall has been often described during the past half century, however, a further section, about a kilometre to the south is considered for the first time since a brief mention at the beginning of the last century. This 200m long exposure rests upon a raised shore platform and consists of a basal raised beach and littoral sand, overlain by a local diamict revealing evidence of post-depositional frost disturbance and finally Holocene dune sand. It is proposed that this Strap Rock site be included within the general discussion of the Godrevy section.
Resumo:
A novel algorithm for solving nonlinear discrete time optimal control problems with model-reality differences is presented. The technique uses dynamic integrated system optimisation and parameter estimation (DISOPE) which achieves the correct optimal solution in spite of deficiencies in the mathematical model employed in the optimisation procedure. A new method for approximating some Jacobian trajectories required by the algorithm is introduced. It is shown that the iterative procedure associated with the algorithm naturally suits applications to batch chemical processes.
Resumo:
The main limitation of linearization theory that prevents its application in practical problems is the need for an exact knowledge of the plant. This requirement is eliminated and it is shown that a multilayer network can synthesise the state feedback coefficients that linearize a nonlinear control affine plant. The stability of the linearizing closed loop can be guaranteed if the autonomous plant is asymptotically stable and the state feedback is bounded.
Resumo:
Load forecasting is an important task in the management of a power utility. The most recent developments in forecasting involve the use of artificial intelligence techniques, which offer powerful modelling capabilities. This paper discusses these techniques and provides a review of their application to load forecasting.