Probability density function estimation using orthogonal forward regression

Using the classical Parzen window estimate as the target function, the kernel density estimation is formulated as a regression problem and the orthogonal forward regression technique is adopted to construct sparse kernel density estimates. The proposed algorithm incrementally minimises a leave-one-out test error score to select a sparse kernel model, and a local regularisation method is incorporated into the density construction process to further enforce sparsity. The kernel weights are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm, which has the ability to reduce the model size further. Except for the kernel width, the proposed algorithm has no other parameters that need tuning, and the user is not required to specify any additional criterion to terminate the density construction procedure. Two examples are used to demonstrate the ability of this regression-based approach to effectively construct a sparse kernel density estimate with comparable accuracy to that of the full-sample optimised Parzen window density estimate.

An orthogonal forward regression technique for sparse kernel density estimation

Using the classical Parzen window (PW) estimate as the desired response, the kernel density estimation is formulated as a regression problem and the orthogonal forward regression technique is adopted to construct sparse kernel density (SKD) estimates. The proposed algorithm incrementally minimises a leave-one-out test score to select a sparse kernel model, and a local regularisation method is incorporated into the density construction process to further enforce sparsity. The kernel weights of the selected sparse model are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm, which ensures the nonnegative and unity constraints for the kernel weights and has the desired ability to reduce the model size further. Except for the kernel width, the proposed method has no other parameters that need tuning, and the user is not required to specify any additional criterion to terminate the density construction procedure. Several examples demonstrate the ability of this simple regression-based approach to effectively construct a SKID estimate with comparable accuracy to that of the full-sample optimised PW density estimate. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sparse kernel density estimation technique based on zero-norm constraint

A sparse kernel density estimator is derived based on the zero-norm constraint, in which the zero-norm of the kernel weights is incorporated to enhance model sparsity. The classical Parzen window estimate is adopted as the desired response for density estimation, and an approximate function of the zero-norm is used for achieving mathemtical tractability and algorithmic efficiency. Under the mild condition of the positive definite design matrix, the kernel weights of the proposed density estimator based on the zero-norm approximation can be obtained using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm. Using the -optimality based selection algorithm as the preprocessing to select a small significant subset design matrix, the proposed zero-norm based approach offers an effective means for constructing very sparse kernel density estimates with excellent generalisation performance.

Probability density estimation with tunable kernels using orthogonal forward regression

A generalized or tunable-kernel model is proposed for probability density function estimation based on an orthogonal forward regression procedure. Each stage of the density estimation process determines a tunable kernel, namely, its center vector and diagonal covariance matrix, by minimizing a leave-one-out test criterion. The kernel mixing weights of the constructed sparse density estimate are finally updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm to ensure the nonnegative and unity constraints, and this weight-updating process additionally has the desired ability to further reduce the model size. The proposed tunable-kernel model has advantages, in terms of model generalization capability and model sparsity, over the standard fixed-kernel model that restricts kernel centers to the training data points and employs a single common kernel variance for every kernel. On the other hand, it does not optimize all the model parameters together and thus avoids the problems of high-dimensional ill-conditioned nonlinear optimization associated with the conventional finite mixture model. Several examples are included to demonstrate the ability of the proposed novel tunable-kernel model to effectively construct a very compact density estimate accurately.

Regression based D-optimality experimental design for sparse kernel density estimation

This paper derives an efficient algorithm for constructing sparse kernel density (SKD) estimates. The algorithm first selects a very small subset of significant kernels using an orthogonal forward regression (OFR) procedure based on the D-optimality experimental design criterion. The weights of the resulting sparse kernel model are then calculated using a modified multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm. Unlike most of the SKD estimators, the proposed D-optimality regression approach is an unsupervised construction algorithm and it does not require an empirical desired response for the kernel selection task. The strength of the D-optimality OFR is owing to the fact that the algorithm automatically selects a small subset of the most significant kernels related to the largest eigenvalues of the kernel design matrix, which counts for the most energy of the kernel training data, and this also guarantees the most accurate kernel weight estimate. The proposed method is also computationally attractive, in comparison with many existing SKD construction algorithms. Extensive numerical investigation demonstrates the ability of this regression-based approach to efficiently construct a very sparse kernel density estimate with excellent test accuracy, and our results show that the proposed method compares favourably with other existing sparse methods, in terms of test accuracy, model sparsity and complexity, for constructing kernel density estimates.

Using zero-norm constraint for sparse probability density function estimation

A new sparse kernel probability density function (pdf) estimator based on zero-norm constraint is constructed using the classical Parzen window (PW) estimate as the target function. The so-called zero-norm of the parameters is used in order to achieve enhanced model sparsity, and it is suggested to minimize an approximate function of the zero-norm. It is shown that under certain condition, the kernel weights of the proposed pdf estimator based on the zero-norm approximation can be updated using the multiplicative nonnegative quadratic programming algorithm. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Real estate portfolio construction and estimation risk

The use of MPT in the construction real estate portfolios has two serious limitations when used in an ex-ante framework: (1) the intertemporal instability of the portfolio weights and (2) the sharp deterioration in performance of the optimal portfolios outside the sample period used to estimate asset mean returns. Both problems can be traced to wide fluctuations in sample means Jorion (1985). Thus the use of a procedure that ignores the estimation risk due to the uncertain in mean returns is likely to produce sub-optimal results in subsequent periods. This suggests that the consideration of the issue of estimation risk is crucial in the use of MPT in developing a successful real estate portfolio strategy. Therefore, following Eun & Resnick (1988), this study extends previous ex-ante based studies by evaluating optimal portfolio allocations in subsequent test periods by using methods that have been proposed to reduce the effect of measurement error on optimal portfolio allocations.

Sparse probability density function estimation using the minimum integrated square error

We develop a new sparse kernel density estimator using a forward constrained regression framework, within which the nonnegative and summing-to-unity constraints of the mixing weights can easily be satisfied. Our main contribution is to derive a recursive algorithm to select significant kernels one at time based on the minimum integrated square error (MISE) criterion for both the selection of kernels and the estimation of mixing weights. The proposed approach is simple to implement and the associated computational cost is very low. Specifically, the complexity of our algorithm is in the order of the number of training data N, which is much lower than the order of N2 offered by the best existing sparse kernel density estimators. Numerical examples are employed to demonstrate that the proposed approach is effective in constructing sparse kernel density estimators with comparable accuracy to those of the classical Parzen window estimate and other existing sparse kernel density estimators.

An ensemble approach to uncertainty estimation for satellite-based rainfall estimates

Variational data assimilation for parameter estimation: application to a simple morphodynamic model

Data assimilation is a sophisticated mathematical technique for combining observational data with model predictions to produce state and parameter estimates that most accurately approximate the current and future states of the true system. The technique is commonly used in atmospheric and oceanic modelling, combining empirical observations with model predictions to produce more accurate and well-calibrated forecasts. Here, we consider a novel application within a coastal environment and describe how the method can also be used to deliver improved estimates of uncertain morphodynamic model parameters. This is achieved using a technique known as state augmentation. Earlier applications of state augmentation have typically employed the 4D-Var, Kalman filter or ensemble Kalman filter assimilation schemes. Our new method is based on a computationally inexpensive 3D-Var scheme, where the specification of the error covariance matrices is crucial for success. A simple 1D model of bed-form propagation is used to demonstrate the method. The scheme is capable of recovering near-perfect parameter values and, therefore, improves the capability of our model to predict future bathymetry. Such positive results suggest the potential for application to more complex morphodynamic models.