Evaluating the Survey of Professional Forecasters probability distributions of expected inflation based on derived event probability forecasts

Techniques are proposed for evaluating forecast probabilities of events. The tools are especially useful when, as in the case of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) expected probability distributions of inflation, recourse cannot be made to the method of construction in the evaluation of the forecasts. The tests of efficiency and conditional efficiency are applied to the forecast probabilities of events of interest derived from the SPF distributions, and supplement a whole-density evaluation of the SPF distributions based on the probability integral transform approach.

Effects of chlorogenic acid and bovine serum albumin on the oxidative stability of low density lipoproteins in vitro

The ability of chlorogenic acid to inhibit oxidation of human low-density lipoprotein (LDL) was studied by in vitro copper-induced LDL oxidation. The effect of chlorogenic acid on the lag time before LDL oxidation increased in a dose dependent manner by up to 176% of the control value when added at concentrations of 0.25 -1.0 μM. Dose dependent increases in lag time of LDL oxidation were also observed, but at much higher concentrations, when chlorogenic acid was incubated with LDL (up to 29.7% increase in lag phase for 10 μM chlorogenic acid) or plasma (up to 16.6% increase in lag phase for 200 μM chlorogenic acid) prior to isolation of LDL, and this indicated that chlorogenic acid was able to bind, at least weakly, to LDL. Bovine serum albumin (BSA) increased the oxidative stability of LDL in the presence of chlorogenic acid. Fluorescence spectroscopy showed that chlorogenic acid binds to BSA with a binding constant of 3.88 x 104 M-1. BSA increased the antioxidant effect of chlorogenic acid, and this was attributed to copper ions binding to BSA, thereby reducing the amount of copper available for inducing lipid peroxidation.

Modeling distributions of immediate memory effects: No strategies needed?

Many models of immediate memory predict the presence or absence of various effects, but none have been tested to see whether they predict an appropriate distribution of effect sizes. The authors show that the feature model (J. S. Nairne, 1990) produces appropriate distributions of effect sizes for both the phonological confusion effect and the word-length effect. The model produces the appropriate number of reversals, when participants are more accurate with similar items or long items, and also correctly predicts that participants performing less well overall demonstrate smaller and less reliable phonological similarity and word-length effects and are more likely to show reversals. These patterns appear within the model without the need to assume a change in encoding or rehearsal strategy or the deployment of a different storage buffer. The implications of these results and the wider applicability of the distributionmodeling approach are discussed.

Restricted dispersal reduces the strength of spatial density dependence in a tropical bird population

Spatial processes could play an important role in density-dependent population regulation because the disproportionate use of poor quality habitats as population size increases is widespread in animal populations-the so-called buffer effect. While the buffer effect patterns and their demographic consequences have been described in a number of wild populations, much less is known about how dispersal affects distribution patterns and ultimately density dependence. Here, we investigated the role of dispersal in spatial density dependence using an extraordinarily detailed dataset from a reintroduced Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus) population with a territorial (despotic) breeding system. We show that recruitment rates varied significantly between territories, and that territory occupancy was related to its recruitment rate, both of which are consistent with the buffer effect theory. However, we also show that restricted dispersal affects the patterns of territory occupancy with the territories close to release sites being occupied sooner and for longer as the population has grown than the territories further away. As a result of these dispersal patterns, the strength of spatial density dependence is significantly reduced. We conclude that restricted dispersal can modify spatial density dependence in the wild, which has implications for the way population dynamics are likely to be impacted by environmental change.

Effect of plant density and initial crown size on growth, development and yield in strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero

The effects of density (plant spacing) and initial plant size on vegetative growth, flowering and fruiting were studied in the strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero in their first and second years of cropping. The influence of these factors on light use and dry-matter partitioning was investigated. The size of planting material in 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero' slightly affected plant growth and yield, but this effect was not consistent and radiation use efficiency (RUE) and harvest index were unaltered. Plant spacing did not significantly affect the early stages of crop growth, but was important in determining growth and yield later in the season, this effect being more significant in the second year of cropping. Plant growth and yield per plant increased as plant spacing increased from 20 to 30 cm in both 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero', but the highest harvest index and yield per square metre were obtained at the closest spacing. Increased plant spacing also resulted in a greater leaf area and leaf area index. However, light was used less efficiently resulting in a lower RUE and lower harvest index (HI).

Effect of plant density and initial crown size on growth, development and yield in strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero

The effects of density (plant spacing) and initial plant size on vegetative growth, flowering and fruiting were studied in the strawberry cultivars Elsanta and Bolero in their first and second years of cropping. The influence of these factors on light use and dry-matter partitioning was investigated. The size of planting material in 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero' slightly affected plant growth and yield, but this effect was not consistent and radiation use efficiency (RUE) and harvest index were unaltered. Plant spacing did not significantly affect the early stages of crop growth, but was important in determining growth and yield later in the season, this effect being more significant in the second year of cropping. Plant growth and yield per plant increased as plant spacing increased from 20 to 30 cm in both 'Elsanta' and 'Bolero', but the highest harvest index and yield per square metre were obtained at the closest spacing. Increased plant spacing also resulted in a greater leaf area and leaf area index. However, light was used less efficiently resulting in a lower RUE and lower harvest index (HI).

Effect of circulating forms of soy isoflavones on the oxidation of low density lipoprotein

Soy isoflavones are thought to have a cardioprotective effect that is partly mediated by an inhibitory influence on the oxidation of low density lipoprotein (LDL). However, the aglycone forms investigated in many previous studies do not circulate in appreciable quantities because they are metabolised in the gut and liver. We investigated effects of various isoflavone metabolites, including for the first time the sulphated conjugates formed in the liver and the mucosa of the small intestine, on copper-induced LDL oxidation. The parent aglycones inhibited oxidation, although only 5% as well as quercetin. Metabolism increased or decreased their effectiveness. Equol inhibited 2.65-fold better than its parent compound daidzein and 8-hydroxydaidzein, not previously assessed, was 12.5-fold better than daidzein. However, monosulphated conjugates of genistein, daidzein and equol were much less effective and disulphates completely ineffective. Since almost all isoflavones circulate as conjugates, these data suggest that despite the increased potency produced by some metabolic changes, isoflavones may not be effective antioxidants in vivo unless they are deconjugated again.

Joint effects of population density and toxicant exposure on population dynamics of Capitella sp I

Very few studies have analyzed the dependence of population growth rate on population density, and even fewer have considered interaction effects of density and other stresses, such as exposure to toxic chemicals. Yet without such studies we cannot know whether chemicals harmful at low density have effects on carrying capacity or, conversely, whether chemicals reducing carrying capacity are also harmful at low density, impeding a population's capacity to recover from disturbance. This study examines the combined effects of population density and a toxicant (fluoranthene) on population growth rate (pgr) and carrying capacity using the deposit-feeding polychaete Capitella sp. I as a test organism. Populations were initiated with a stable age distribution, and population density and age/size distribution were followed during a period of 28 wk. Fluoranthene (FLU), population density, and their interaction influenced population growth rate. Population growth rate declined linearly with the logarithm of population biomass, but the slope of the relationship was steeper for the control populations than for populations exposed to 50 mug FLU/(g sediment dry mass). Populations exposed to 150 mug FLU/(g sediment dry mass) went extinct after 8 wk of exposure. Despite concerns that toxicant effects would be exacerbated at high density, we found the reverse to be the case, and effects of fluoranthene on population growth rate were much reduced in the region of carrying capacity. Fluoranthene did. reduce carrying capacity by 46%, and this could haven important implications for interacting species and/or sediment biogeochemical processes.

The joint effects of larval density and C-14-cypermethrin on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

1. Chemical effects on organisms are typically assessed using individual-level endpoints or sometimes population growth rate (PGR), but such measurements are generally made at low population densities. In contrast most natural populations are subject to density dependence and fluctuate around the environmental carrying capacity as a result of individual competition for resources. As ecotoxicology aims to make reliable population projections of chemical impacts in the field, an understanding of how high-density or resource-limited populations respond to environmental chemicals is essential. 2. Our objective was to determine the joint effects of population density and chemical stress on the life history and PGR of an important ecotoxicological indicator species, Chironomus riparius, under controlled laboratory conditions. Populations were fed the same ration but initiated at different densities and exposed to a solvent control and three concentrations of C-14-cypermethrin in a sediment-water test system for 67 days at 20 +/- 1 degreesC. 3. Density had a negative effect on all the measured life-history traits, and PGR declined with increasing density in the controls. Exposure to C-14-cypermethrin had a direct negative effect on juvenile survival, presumably within the first 24 h because the chemical rapidly dissipated from the water column. Reductions in the initial larval densities resulted in an increase in the available resources for the survivors. Subsequently, exposed populations emerged sooner and started producing offspring earlier than the controls. C-14-cypermethrin had no effect on estimated fecundity and adult body weight but interacted with density to reduce the time to first emergence and first reproduction. As a result, PGR increased with cypermethrin concentration when populations were initiated at high densities. 4. Synthesis and applications. The results showed that the effects of C-14-cypermethrin were buffered at high density, so that the joint effects of density and chemical stress on PGR were less than additive. Low levels of chemical stressors may increase carrying capacity by reducing juvenile competition for resources. More and perhaps fitter adults may be produced, similar to the effects of predators and culling; however, toxicant exposure may result in survivors that are less tolerant to changing conditions. If less than additive effects are typical in the field, standard regulatory tests carried out at low density may overestimate the effects of environmental chemicals. Further studies over a wide range of chemical stressors and organisms with contrasting life histories are needed to make general recommendations.

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long-standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six-fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between-generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight-week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm(2), less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 - an 8-week habitat lifespan carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm(2).

Mechanisms by which cysteine can inhibit or promote the oxidation of low density lipoprotein by copper

Oxidised low density lipoprotein (LDL) may play a role in atherogenesis. We have investigated some of the mechanisms by which the thiol cysteine and the disulphide cystine can influence the oxidation of LDL by copper ions. Cysteine or cystine (100 PM) inhibited the oxidation of native LDL by copper in a simple phosphate buffer. One of the mechanisms by which cysteine (or more likely its oxidation products in the presence of copper) and cystine inhibited LDL oxidation was by decreasing the binding of copper to LDL (97% inhibition). Cysteine, but not cystine, rapidly reduced Cu2+ to Cu+. This may help to explain the antioxidant effect of cysteine as it may limit the amount of Cu2+ that is available to convert alpha-tocopherol in LDL into the prooxidant alpha-tocopherol radical. Cysteine (but not cystine) had a prooxidant effect, however, toward partially oxidised LDL in the presence of a low copper concentration, which may have been due to the rapid breakdown of lipid hydroperoxides in partially oxidised LDL by Cu+ generated by cysteine. To prove that cysteine can cause the rapid breakdown of lipid hydroperoxides in LDL, we enriched LDL with lipid hydroperoxides using an azo initiator in the absence of copper. Cysteine, but not cystine, increased the rate of lipid hydroperoxide decomposition to thiobarbituric acid-reactive substances (TBARS) in the presence of copper. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oxidation affects the flow-induced aggregation of low density lipoprotein and its inhibition by albumin

We investigated whether oxidation alters the self-aggregation of low density lipoprotein (LDL) and the inhibition of such aggregation by albumin. Incubation with copper for different durations produced mildly, moderately, and highly oxidised LDL (having, respectively, ca. 60, 300 and 160 nmol lipid hydroperoxides/mg protein, and electrophoretic mobilities 1.2, 2.6 and 4.4 times that of native LDL). The rate of flow-induced aggregation was the same for native, mildly oxidised and moderately oxidised LDL, but decreased for highly oxidised LDL. The inhibitory effect of albumin (40 mg/ml) on aggregation was reduced by mild oxidation and further reduced by moderate or severe oxidation. The net result of the two effects was that in the presence of albumin, moderately oxidised LDL had the highest rate of aggregation and native the lowest. The reduction in the anti-aggregatory effect of albumin provides a new mechanism by which LDL oxidation might enhance net aggregation in vivo. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Effect of circulating forms of soy isoflavones on the oxidation of low density lipoprotein

Soy isoflavones are thought to have a cardioprotective effect that is partly mediated by an inhibitory influence on the oxidation of low density lipoprotein (LDL). However, the aglycone forms investigated in many previous studies do not circulate in appreciable quantities because they are metabolised in the gut and liver. We investigated effects of various isoflavone metabolites, including for the first time the sulphated conjugates formed in the liver and the mucosa of the small intestine, on copper-induced LDL oxidation. The parent aglycones inhibited oxidation, although only 5% as well as quercetin. Metabolism increased or decreased their effectiveness. Equol inhibited 2.65-fold better than its parent compound daidzein and 8-hydroxydaidzein, not previously assessed, was 12.5-fold better than daidzein. However, monosulphated conjugates of genistein, daidzein and equol were much less effective and disulphates completely ineffective. Since almost all isoflavones circulate as conjugates, these data suggest that despite the increased potency produced by some metabolic changes, isoflavones may not be effective antioxidants in vivo unless they are deconjugated again.