Strategic management of non-point source pollution from sewage sludge

In the UK, the recycling of sewage sludge to land is expected to double by 2006 but the security of this route is threatened by environmental concerns and health scares. Strategic investment is needed to ensure sustainable and secure sludge recycling outlets. At present, the security of this landbank for sludge recycling is determined by legislation relating to nutrient rather than potentially toxic elements (PTEs) applications to land - especially the environmental risk linked to soil phosphorus (P) saturation. We believe that not all land has an equal risk of contributing nutrients derived from applications to land to receiving waters. We are currently investigating whether it is possible to minimise nutrient loss by applying sludge to land outside Critical Source Areas (CSAs) regardless of soil P Index status. Research is underway to develop a predictive and spatially-sensitive, semi-distributed model of critical thresholds for sludge application that goes beyond traditional 'end-of-pipe" or "edge-of-field" modelling, to include hydrological flow paths and delivery mechanisms to receiving waters from non-point sources at the catchment scale.

Evaluating the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient losses at field and catchment scales

A semi-distributed model, INCA, has been developed to determine the fate and distribution of nutrients in terrestrial and aquatic systems. The model simulates nitrogen and phosphorus processes in soils, groundwaters and river systems and can be applied in a semi-distributed manner at a range of scales. In this study, the model has been applied at field to sub-catchment to whole catchment scale to evaluate the behaviour of biosolid-derived losses of P in agricultural systems. It is shown that process-based models such as INCA, applied at a wide range of scales, reproduce field and catchment behaviour satisfactorily. The INCA model can also be used to generate generic information for risk assessment. By adjusting three key variables: biosolid application rates, the hydrological connectivity of the catchment and the initial P-status of the soils within the model, a matrix of P loss rates can be generated to evaluate the behaviour of the model and, hence, of the catchment system. The results, which indicate the sensitivity of the catchment to flow paths, to application rates and to initial soil conditions, have been incorporated into a Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM).

Do preference reversals generalise? Results on ambiguity and loss aversion

Preference reversals are frequently observed in the lab, but almost all designs use completely transparent prospects, which are rarely features of decision making elsewhere. This raises questions of external validity. We test the robustness of the phenomenon to gambles that incorporate realistic ambiguity in both payoffs and probabilities. In addition, we test a recent explanation of preference reversals by loss aversion, which would also restrict the incidence of reversals outside the lab. According to this account, reversals occur largely because the valuation task endows subject with a gamble, activating loss aversion. This contrasts with the choice task, where the reference point is pre-experiment wealth. We test this explanation by holding the reference point constant. Our evidence suggests that reversals are only slightly diminished with ambiguity. We find no evidence supporting their explanation by loss aversion.

Phosphorus loss from agricultural catchments: pathways and implications for management

The contribution non-point P sources make to the total P loading on water bodies in agricultural catchments has not been fully appreciated. Using data derived from plot scale experimental studies, and modelling approaches developed to simulate system behaviour under differing management scenarios, a fuller understanding of the processes controlling P export and transformations along non-point transport pathways can be achieved. One modelling approach which has been successfully applied to large UK catchments (50-350km2 in area) is applied here to a small, 1.5 km2 experimental catchment. The importance of scaling is discussed in the context of how such approaches can extrapolate the results from plot-scale experimental studies to full catchment scale. However, the scope of such models is limited, since they do not at present directly simulate the processes controlling P transport and transformation dynamics. As such, they can only simulate total P export on an annual basis, and are not capable of prediction over shorter time scales. The need for development of process-based models to help answer these questions, and for more comprehensive UK experimental studies is highlighted as a pre-requisite for the development of suitable and sustainable management strategies to reduce non-point P loading on water bodies in agricultural catchments.

Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GMC

A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.

Endocannabinoids, FOXO and the metabolic syndrome: redox, function and tipping point--the view from two systems

The endocannabinoid system (ECS) was only 'discovered' in the 1990s. Since then, many new ligands have been identified, as well as many new intracellular targets--ranging from the PPARs, to mitochondria, to lipid rafts. It was thought that blocking the CB-1 receptor might reverse obesity and the metabolic syndrome. This was based on the idea that the ECS was dysfunctional in these conditions. This has met with limited success. The reason may be that the ECS is a homeostatic system, which integrates energy seeking and storage behaviour with resistance to oxidative stress. It could be viewed as having thrifty actions. Thriftiness is an innate property of life, which is programmed to a set point by both environment and genetics, resulting in an epigenotype perfectly adapted to its environment. This thrifty set point can be modulated by hormetic stimuli, such as exercise, cold and plant micronutrients. We have proposed that the physiological and protective insulin resistance that underlies thriftiness encapsulates something called 'redox thriftiness', whereby insulin resistance is determined by the ability to resist oxidative stress. Modern man has removed most hormetic stimuli and replaced them with a calorific sedentary lifestyle, leading to increased risk of metabolic inflexibility. We suggest that there is a tipping point where lipotoxicity in adipose and hepatic cells induces mild inflammation, which switches thrifty insulin resistance to inflammation-driven insulin resistance. To understand this, we propose that the metabolic syndrome could be seen from the viewpoint of the ECS, the mitochondrion and the FOXO group of transcription factors. FOXO has many thrifty actions, including increasing insulin resistance and appetite, suppressing oxidative stress and shifting the organism towards using fatty acids. In concert with factors such as PGC-1, they also modify mitochondrial function and biogenesis. Hence, the ECS and FOXO may interact at many points; one of which may be via intracellular redox signalling. As cannabinoids have been shown to modulate reactive oxygen species production, it is possible that they can upregulate anti-oxidant defences. This suggests they may have an 'endohormetic' signalling function. The tipping point into the metabolic syndrome may be the result of a chronic lack of hormetic stimuli (in particular, physical activity), and thus, stimulus for PGC-1, with a resultant reduction in mitochondrial function and a reduced lipid capacitance. This, in the context of a positive calorie environment, will result in increased visceral adipose tissue volume, abnormal ectopic fat content and systemic inflammation. This would worsen the inflammatory-driven pathological insulin resistance and inability to deal with lipids. The resultant oxidative stress may therefore drive a compensatory anti-oxidative response epitomised by the ECS and FOXO. Thus, although blocking the ECS (e.g. via rimonabant) may induce temporary weight loss, it may compromise long-term stress resistance. Clues about how to modulate the system more safely are emerging from observations that some polyphenols, such as resveratrol and possibly, some phytocannabinoids, can modulate mitochondrial function and might improve resistance to a modern lifestyle.