A case study of sample design for longitudinal research: young lives

This paper presents a case study to illustrate the range of decisions involved in designing a sampling strategy for a complex, longitudinal research study. It is based on experience from the Young Lives project and identifies the approaches used to sample children for longitudinal follow-up in four less developed countries (LDCs). The rationale for decisions made and the resulting benefits, and limitations, of the approaches adopted are discussed. Of particular importance is the choice of sampling approach to yield useful analysis; specific examples are presented of how this informed the design of the Young Lives sampling strategy.

Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cyclic loss of open solar flux since 1868: the link to heliospheric current sheet tilt and implications for the Maunder Minimum

Open solar flux (OSF) variations can be described by the imbalance between source and loss terms. We use spacecraft and geomagnetic observations of OSF from 1868 to present and assume the OSF source, S, varies with the observed sunspot number, R. Computing the required fractional OSF loss, χ, reveals a clear solar cycle variation, in approximate phase with R. While peak R varies significantly from cycle to cycle, χ is surprisingly constant in both amplitude and waveform. Comparisons of χ with measures of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) orientation reveal a strong correlation. The cyclic nature of χ is exploited to reconstruct OSF back to the start of sunspot records in 1610. This agrees well with the available spacecraft, geomagnetic, and cosmogenic isotope observations. Assuming S is proportional to R yields near-zero OSF throughout the Maunder Minimum. However, χ becomes negative during periods of low R, particularly the most recent solar minimum, meaning OSF production is underestimated. This is related to continued coronal mass ejection (CME) activity, and therefore OSF production, throughout solar minimum, despite R falling to zero. Correcting S for this produces a better match to the recent solar minimum OSF observations. It also results in a cycling, nonzero OSF during the Maunder Minimum, in agreement with cosmogenic isotope observations. These results suggest that during the Maunder Minimum, HCS tilt cycled as over recent solar cycles, and the CME rate was roughly constant at the levels measured during the most recent two solar minima.

Does the PMSP connectionist model of single word reading learn to read in the same way as a child?

The Plaut, McClelland, Seidenberg and Patterson (1996) connectionist model of reading was evaluated at two points early in its training against reading data collected from British children on two occasions during their first year of literacy instruction. First, the network’s non-word reading was poor relative to word reading when compared with the children. Second, the network made more non-lexical than lexical errors, the opposite pattern to the children. Three adaptations were made to the training of the network to bring it closer to the learning environment of a child: an incremental training regime was adopted; the network was trained on grapheme– phoneme correspondences; and a training corpus based on words found in children’s early reading materials was used. The modifications caused a sharp improvement in non-word reading, relative to word reading, resulting in a near perfect match to the children’s data on this measure. The modified network, however, continued to make predominantly non-lexical errors, although evidence from a small-scale implementation of the full triangle framework suggests that this limitation stems from the lack of a semantic pathway. Taken together, these results suggest that, when properly trained, connectionist models of word reading can offer insights into key aspects of reading development in children.

The science case for an orbital mission to Uranus: Exploring the origins and evolution of ice giant planets

Giant planets helped to shape the conditions we see in the Solar System today and they account for more than 99% of the mass of the Sun’s planetary system. They can be subdivided into the Ice Giants (Uranus and Neptune) and the Gas Giants (Jupiter and Saturn), which differ from each other in a number of fundamental ways. Uranus, in particular is the most challenging to our understanding of planetary formation and evolution, with its large obliquity, low self-luminosity, highly asymmetrical internal field, and puzzling internal structure. Uranus also has a rich planetary system consisting of a system of inner natural satellites and complex ring system, five major natural icy satellites, a system of irregular moons with varied dynamical histories, and a highly asymmetrical magnetosphere. Voyager 2 is the only spacecraft to have explored Uranus, with a flyby in 1986, and no mission is currently planned to this enigmatic system. However, a mission to the uranian system would open a new window on the origin and evolution of the Solar System and would provide crucial information on a wide variety of physicochemical processes in our Solar System. These have clear implications for understanding exoplanetary systems. In this paper we describe the science case for an orbital mission to Uranus with an atmospheric entry probe to sample the composition and atmospheric physics in Uranus’ atmosphere. The characteristics of such an orbiter and a strawman scientific payload are described and we discuss the technical challenges for such a mission. This paper is based on a white paper submitted to the European Space Agency’s call for science themes for its large-class mission programme in 2013.

Visual Object Recognition Using Deformable Models of Vehicles

This workshop paper reports recent developments to a vision system for traffic interpretation which relies extensively on the use of geometrical and scene context. Firstly, a new approach to pose refinement is reported, based on forces derived from prominent image derivatives found close to an initial hypothesis. Secondly, a parameterised vehicle model is reported, able to represent different vehicle classes. This general vehicle model has been fitted to sample data, and subjected to a Principal Component Analysis to create a deformable model of common car types having 6 parameters. We show that the new pose recovery technique is also able to operate on the PCA model, to allow the structure of an initial vehicle hypothesis to be adapted to fit the prevailing context. We report initial experiments with the model, which demonstrate significant improvements to pose recovery.

Sampling uncertainties in surface radiation budget calculations in RADAGAST

In the Radiative Atmospheric Divergence Using ARM Mobile Facility GERB and AMMA Stations (RADAGAST) project we calculate the divergence of radiative flux across the atmosphere by comparing fluxes measured at each end of an atmospheric column above Niamey, in the African Sahel region. The combination of broadband flux measurements from geostationary orbit and the deployment for over 12 months of a comprehensive suite of active and passive instrumentation at the surface eliminates a number of sampling issues that could otherwise affect divergence calculations of this sort. However, one sampling issue that challenges the project is the fact that the surface flux data are essentially measurements made at a point, while the top-of-atmosphere values are taken over a solid angle that corresponds to an area at the surface of some 2500 km2. Variability of cloud cover and aerosol loading in the atmosphere mean that the downwelling fluxes, even when averaged over a day, will not be an exact match to the area-averaged value over that larger area, although we might expect that it is an unbiased estimate thereof. The heterogeneity of the surface, for example, fixed variations in albedo, further means that there is a likely systematic difference in the corresponding upwelling fluxes. In this paper we characterize and quantify this spatial sampling problem. We bound the root-mean-square error in the downwelling fluxes by exploiting a second set of surface flux measurements from a site that was run in parallel with the main deployment. The differences in the two sets of fluxes lead us to an upper bound to the sampling uncertainty, and their correlation leads to another which is probably optimistic as it requires certain other conditions to be met. For the upwelling fluxes we use data products from a number of satellite instruments to characterize the relevant heterogeneities and so estimate the systematic effects that arise from the flux measurements having to be taken at a single point. The sampling uncertainties vary with the season, being higher during the monsoon period. We find that the sampling errors for the daily average flux are small for the shortwave irradiance, generally less than 5 W m−2, under relatively clear skies, but these increase to about 10 W m−2 during the monsoon. For the upwelling fluxes, again taking daily averages, systematic errors are of order 10 W m−2 as a result of albedo variability. The uncertainty on the longwave component of the surface radiation budget is smaller than that on the shortwave component, in all conditions, but a bias of 4 W m−2 is calculated to exist in the surface leaving longwave flux.

Methods and resources for climate impacts research: achieving synergy

The prediction of climate variability and change requires the use of a range of simulation models. Multiple climate model simulations are needed to sample the inherent uncertainties in seasonal to centennial prediction. Because climate models are computationally expensive, there is a tradeoff between complexity, spatial resolution, simulation length, and ensemble size. The methods used to assess climate impacts are examined in the context of this trade-off. An emphasis on complexity allows simulation of coupled mechanisms, such as the carbon cycle and feedbacks between agricultural land management and climate. In addition to improving skill, greater spatial resolution increases relevance to regional planning. Greater ensemble size improves the sampling of probabilities. Research from major international projects is used to show the importance of synergistic research efforts. The primary climate impact examined is crop yield, although many of the issues discussed are relevant to hydrology and health modeling. Methods used to bridge the scale gap between climate and crop models are reviewed. Recent advances include large-area crop modeling, quantification of uncertainty in crop yield, and fully integrated crop–climate modeling. The implications of trends in computer power, including supercomputers, are also discussed.

Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

The kinetics of the 2π+2π photodimerisation reactions of single-crystalline derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid: a study by infrared microspectroscopy

The kinetics of the photodimerisation reactions of the 2- and 4-β-halogeno-derivatives of trans-cinnamic acid (where the halogen is fluorine, chlorine or bromine) have been investigated by infrared microspectroscopy. It is found that none of the reactions proceed to 100% yield. This is in line with a reaction mechanism developed by Wernick and his co-workers that postulates the formation of isolated monomers within the solid, which cannot react. β-4-Bromo and β-4-chloro-trans-cinnamic acids show approximately first order kinetics, although in both cases the reaction accelerates somewhat as it proceeds. First order kinetics is explained in terms of a reaction between one excited- and one ground-state monomer molecule, while the acceleration of the reaction implies that it is promoted as defects are formed within the crystal. By contrast β-2-chloro-trans-cinnamic acid shows a strongly accelerating reaction which models closely to the contracting cube equation. β-2-Fluoro- and β-4-fluoro-trans-cinnamic acids show a close match to first order kinetics. The 4-fluoro-derivative, however, shows a reaction that proceeds via a structural intermediate. The difference in behaviour between the 2-fluoro- and 4-fluoro-derivative may be due to different C–HF hydrogen bonds observed within these single-crystalline starting materials.

PASSCLAIM - gut health and immunity

Background The gut and immune system form a complex integrated structure that has evolved to provide effective digestion and defence against ingested toxins and pathogenic bacteria. However, great variation exists in what is considered normal healthy gut and immune function. Thus, whilst it is possible to measure many aspects of digestion and immunity, it is more difficult to interpret the benefits to individuals of variation within what is considered to be a normal range. Nevertheless, it is important to set standards for optimal function for use both by the consumer, industry and those concerned with the public health. The digestive tract is most frequently the object of functional and health claims and a large market already exists for gut-functional foods worldwide. Aim To define normal function of the gut and immune system and describe available methods of measuring it. Results We have defined normal bowel habit and transit time, identified their role as risk factors for disease and how they may be measured. Similarly, we have tried to define what is a healthy gut flora in terms of the dominant genera and their metabolism and listed the many, varied and novel methods for determining these parameters. It has proved less easy to provide boundaries for what constitutes optimal or improved gastric emptying, gut motility, nutrient and water absorption and the function of organs such as the liver, gallbladder and pancreas. The many tests of these functions are described. We have discussed gastrointestinal well being. Sensations arising from the gut can be both pleasant and unpleasant. However, the characteristics of well being are ill defined and merge imperceptibly from acceptable to unacceptable, a state that is subjective. Nevertheless, we feel this is an important area for future work and method development. The immune system is even more difficult to make quantitative judgements about. When it is defective, then clinical problems ensure, but this is an uncommon state. The innate and adaptive immune systems work synergistically together and comprise many cellular and humoral factors. The adaptive system is extremely sophisticated and between the two arms of immunity there is great redundancy, which provides robust defences. New aspects of immune function are discovered regularly. It is not clear whether immune function can be "improved". Measuring aspects of immune function is possible but there is no one test that will define either the status or functional capacity of the immune system. Human studies are often limited by the ability to sample only blood or secretions such as saliva but it should be remembered that only 2% of lymphocytes circulate at any given time, which limits interpretation of data. We recommend assessing the functional capacity of the immune system by: measuring specific cell functions ex vivo, measuring in vivo responses to challenge, e. g. change in antibody in blood or response to antigens, determining the incidence and severity of infection in target populations during naturally occurring episodes or in response to attenuated pathogens.

Eye-movements aid the control of locomotion

Eye-movements have long been considered a problem when trying to understand the visual control of locomotion. They transform the retinal image from a simple expanding pattern of moving texture elements (pure optic flow), into a complex combination of translation and rotation components (retinal flow). In this article we investigate whether there are measurable advantages to having an active free gaze, over a static gaze or tracking gaze, when steering along a winding path. We also examine patterns of free gaze behavior to determine preferred gaze strategies during active locomotion. Participants were asked to steer along a computer-simulated textured roadway with free gaze, fixed gaze, or gaze tracking the center of the roadway. Deviation of position from the center of the road was recorded along with their point of gaze. It was found that visually tracking the middle of the road produced smaller steering errors than for fixed gaze. Participants performed best at the steering task when allowed to sample naturally from the road ahead with free gaze. There was some variation in the gaze strategies used, but sampling was predominantly of areas proximal to the center of the road. These results diverge from traditional models of flow analysis.

Parallel Monte Carlo algorithms for information retrieval

In any data mining applications, automated text and text and image retrieval of information is needed. This becomes essential with the growth of the Internet and digital libraries. Our approach is based on the latent semantic indexing (LSI) and the corresponding term-by-document matrix suggested by Berry and his co-authors. Instead of using deterministic methods to find the required number of first "k" singular triplets, we propose a stochastic approach. First, we use Monte Carlo method to sample and to build much smaller size term-by-document matrix (e.g. we build k x k matrix) from where we then find the first "k" triplets using standard deterministic methods. Second, we investigate how we can reduce the problem to finding the "k"-largest eigenvalues using parallel Monte Carlo methods. We apply these methods to the initial matrix and also to the reduced one. The algorithms are running on a cluster of workstations under MPI and results of the experiments arising in textual retrieval of Web documents as well as comparison of the stochastic methods proposed are presented. (C) 2003 IMACS. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The later Anglo-Saxon settlement at Bishopstone. A downland manor in the making

This volume reports on the excavations from 2002 to 2005 designed to investigate this transition, with the focus on the origins of Bishopstone village. Excavations adjacent to St Andrew’s churchyard revealed a dense swathe of later Anglo-Saxon (8th- to late 10th-/early 11th-century) habitation, including a planned complex of ‘timber halls’, and a unique cellared tower. The occupation encroached upon a pre-Conquest cemetery of 43 inhumations. The report provides a comprehensive analysis, interpretation and academic contextualisation of the archaeological discoveries brought to light by these excavations, the first to sample a later Anglo-Saxon rural settlement in East Sussex on an extensive scale. The inter-disciplinary approach appraises the historical and topographical evidence alongside that recovered during the excavations.

The roles of feature-specific task set and bottom-up salience in attentional capture: An ERP study

We investigated the roles of top-down task set and bottom-up stimulus salience for feature-specific attentional capture. Spatially nonpredictive cues preceded search arrays that included a color-defined target. For target-color singleton cues, behavioral spatial cueing effects were accompanied by cueinduced N2pc components, indicative of attentional capture. These effects were only minimally attenuated for nonsingleton target-color cues, underlining the dominance of top-down task set over salience in attentional capture. Nontarget-color singleton cues triggered no N2pc, but instead an anterior N2 component indicative of top-down inhibition. In Experiment 2, inverted behavioral cueing effects of these cues were accompanied by a delayed N2pc to targets at cued locations, suggesting that perceptually salient but task-irrelevant visual events trigger location-specific inhibition mechanisms that can delay subsequent target selection.