Memory and burstiness in dynamic networks

A discrete-time random process is described, which can generate bursty sequences of events. A Bernoulli process, where the probability of an event occurring at time t is given by a fixed probability x, is modified to include a memory effect where the event probability is increased proportionally to the number of events that occurred within a given amount of time preceding t. For small values of x the interevent time distribution follows a power law with exponent −2−x. We consider a dynamic network where each node forms, and breaks connections according to this process. The value of x for each node depends on the fitness distribution, \rho(x), from which it is drawn; we find exact solutions for the expectation of the degree distribution for a variety of possible fitness distributions, and for both cases where the memory effect either is, or is not present. This work can potentially lead to methods to uncover hidden fitness distributions from fast changing, temporal network data, such as online social communications and fMRI scans.

High-throughput monitoring of wild bee diversity and abundance via mitogenomics

1. Bee populations and other pollinators face multiple, synergistically acting threats, which have led to population declines, loss of local species richness and pollination services, and extinctions. However, our understanding of the degree, distribution and causes of declines is patchy, in part due to inadequate monitoring systems, with the challenge of taxonomic identification posing a major logistical barrier. Pollinator conservation would benefit from a high-throughput identification pipeline. 2. We show that the metagenomic mining and resequencing of mitochondrial genomes (mitogenomics) can be applied successfully to bulk samples of wild bees. We assembled the mitogenomes of 48 UK bee species and then shotgun-sequenced total DNA extracted from 204 whole bees that had been collected in 10 pan-trap samples from farms in England and been identified morphologically to 33 species. Each sample data set was mapped against the 48 reference mitogenomes. 3. The morphological and mitogenomic data sets were highly congruent. Out of 63 total species detections in the morphological data set, the mitogenomic data set made 59 correct detections (93�7% detection rate) and detected six more species (putative false positives). Direct inspection and an analysis with species-specific primers suggested that these putative false positives were most likely due to incorrect morphological IDs. Read frequency significantly predicted species biomass frequency (R2 = 24�9%). Species lists, biomass frequencies, extrapolated species richness and community structure were recovered with less error than in a metabarcoding pipeline. 4. Mitogenomics automates the onerous task of taxonomic identification, even for cryptic species, allowing the tracking of changes in species richness and istributions. A mitogenomic pipeline should thus be able to contain costs, maintain consistently high-quality data over long time series, incorporate retrospective taxonomic revisions and provide an auditable evidence trail. Mitogenomic data sets also provide estimates of species counts within samples and thus have potential for tracking population trajectories.

Bioclimatic envelope model of climate change impacts on blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain

Blanket peatlands are rain-fed mires that cover the landscape almost regardless of topography. The geographical extent of this type of peatland is highly sensitive to climate. We applied a global process-based bioclimatic envelope model, PeatStash, to predict the distribution of British blanket peatlands. The model captures the present areal extent (Kappa = 0.77) and is highly sensitive to both temperature and precipitation changes. When the model is run using the UKCIP02 climate projections for the time periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, the geographical distribution of blanket peatlands gradually retreats towards the north and the west. In the UKCIP02 high emissions scenario for 2071–2100, the blanket peatland bioclimatic space is ~84% smaller than contemporary conditions (1961–1990); only parts of the west of Scotland remain inside this space. Increasing summer temperature is the main driver of the projected changes in areal extent. Simulations using 7 climate model outputs resulted in generally similar patterns of declining aereal extent of the bioclimatic space, although differing in degree. The results presented in this study should be viewed as a first step towards understanding the trends likely to affect the blanket peatland distribution in Great Britain. The eventual fate of existing blanket peatlands left outside their bioclimatic space remains uncertain.

The distribution of London residential property prices and the role of spatial lock-in

Much of mainstream economic analysis assumes that markets adjust smoothly, through prices, to changes in economic conditions. However, this is not necessarily the case for local housing markets, whose spatial structures may exhibit persistence, so that conditions may not be those most suited to the requirements of modern-day living. Persistence can arise from the existence of transaction costs. The paper tests the proposition that housing markets in Inner London exhibit a degree of path dependence, through the construction of a three-equation model, and examines the impact of variables constructed for the 19th and early 20th centuries on modern house prices. These include 19th-century social structures, slum clearance programmes and the 1908 underground network. Each is found to be significant. The tests require the construction of novel historical datasets, which are also described in the paper.

Controlled variation of monomer sequence-distribution in the synthesis of aromatic poly(ether ketone)s

The effects of varying the alkali metal cation in the high-temperature nucleophilic synthesis of a semi-crystalline, aromatic poly(ether ketone) have been systematically investigated, and striking variations in the sequence-distributions and thermal characteristics of the resulting polymers were found. Polycondensation of 4,4'-dihydroxybenzophenone with 1,3-bis(4-fluorobenzoyl)benzene in diphenylsulfone as solvent, in the presence of an alkali metal carbonate M2CO3 (M= Li, Na, K, or Rb) as base, affords a range of different polymers that vary in the distribution pattern of 2-ring and 3-ring monomer units along the chain. Lithium carbonate gives an essentially alternating and highly crystalline polymer, but the degree of sequence-randomisation increases progressively as the alkali metal series is descended, with rubidium carbonate giving a fully random and non-thermally-crystallisable polymer. Randomisation during polycondensation is shown to result from reversible cleavage of the ether linkages in the polymer by fluoride ions, and an isolated sample of alternating-sequence polymer is thus converted to a fully randomised material on heating with rubidium fluoride.