Impact on CVD risk of modifying milk fat to decrease intake of SFA and increase intake of cis-MUFA

Despite the acknowledged benefits of reducing SFA intake few countries within the EU meet recognised targets. Milk and dairy products represent the single largest source of dietary SFA in most countries, yet epidemiological evidence indicates that milk has cardioprotective properties such that simply reducing consumption of dairy foods to meet SFA targets may not be a sound public health approach. The present paper explores the options for replacing some of the SFA in milk fat with cis-MUFA through alteration of the diet of the dairy cow, and the evidence that such changes can improve the indicators for CHD and CVD in general for the consumer. In addition, the outcome of such changes on risk factors for CHD and CVD at the population level is examined in the light of a modelling exercise involving data for eleven EU member states. Given the current and projected costs of health care, the results indicate that urgent consideration should be given to such a strategy.

Impact on CVD risk of modifying milk fat to decrease intake of SFA and increase intake of cis-MUFA

Despite the acknowledged benefits of reducing SFA intake few countries within the EU meet recognised targets. Milk and dairy products represent the single largest source of dietary SFA in most countries, yet epidemiological evidence indicates that milk has cardioprotective properties such that simply reducing consumption of dairy foods to meet SFA targets may not be a sound public health approach. The present paper explores the options for replacing some of the SFA in milk fat with cis-MUFA through alteration of the diet of the dairy cow, and the evidence that such changes can improve the indicators for CHD and CVD in general for the consumer. In addition, the outcome of such changes on risk factors for CHD and CVD at the population level is examined in the light of a modelling exercise involving data for eleven EU member states. Given the current and projected costs of health care, the results indicate that urgent consideration should be given to such a strategy.

Twentieth century secular decrease in the atmospheric potential gradient

Current flowing in the global atmospheric electrical circuit (AEC) substantially decreased during the twentieth century. Fair-weather potential gradient (PG) observations in Scotland and Shetland show a previously unreported annual decline from 1920 to 1980, when the measurements ceased. A 25% reduction in PG occurred in Scotland 1920–50, with the maximum decline during the winter months. This is quantitatively explained by a decrease in cosmic rays (CR) increasing the thunderstorm-electrosphere coupling resistance, reducing the ionospheric potential VI. Independent measurements of VI also suggest a reduction of 27% from 1920–50. The secular decrease will influence fair weather atmospheric electrical parameters, including ion concentrations and aerosol electrification. Between 1920–50, the PG showed a negative correlation with global temperature, despite the positive correlation found recently between surface temperature and VI. The 1980s stabilisation in VI may arise from compensation of the continuing CR-induced decline by increases in global temperature and convective electrification.

The dose rate debate: does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose?

This paper reviews the evidence relating to the question: does the risk of fungicide resistance increase or decrease with dose? The development of fungicide resistance progresses through three key phases. During the ‘emergence phase’ the resistant strain has to arise through mutation and invasion. During the subsequent ‘selection phase’, the resistant strain is present in the pathogen population and the fraction of the pathogen population carrying the resistance increases due to the selection pressure caused by the fungicide. During the final phase of ‘adjustment’, the dose or choice of fungicide may need to be changed to maintain effective control over a pathogen population where resistance has developed to intermediate levels. Emergence phase: no experimental publications and only one model study report on the emergence phase, and we conclude that work in this area is needed. Selection phase: all the published experimental work, and virtually all model studies, relate to the selection phase. Seven peer reviewed and four non-peer reviewed publications report experimental evidence. All show increased selection for fungicide resistance with increased fungicide dose, except for one peer reviewed publication that does not detect any selection irrespective of dose and one conference proceedings publication which claims evidence for increased selection at a lower dose. In the mathematical models published, no evidence has been found that a lower dose could lead to a higher risk of fungicide resistance selection. We discuss areas of the dose rate debate that need further study. These include further work on pathogen-fungicide combinations where the pathogen develops partial resistance to the fungicide and work on the emergence phase.

Does increased hydrochemical model complexity decrease robustness?

The aim of this study was, within a sensitivity analysis framework, to determine if additional model complexity gives a better capability to model the hydrology and nitrogen dynamics of a small Mediterranean forested catchment or if the additional parameters cause over-fitting. Three nitrogen-models of varying hydrological complexity were considered. For each model, general sensitivity analysis (GSA) and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) were applied, each based on 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations. The results highlighted the most complex structure as the most appropriate, providing the best representation of the non-linear patterns observed in the flow and streamwater nitrate concentrations between 1999 and 2002. Its 5% and 95% GLUE bounds, obtained considering a multi-objective approach, provide the narrowest band for streamwater nitrogen, which suggests increased model robustness, though all models exhibit periods of inconsistent good and poor fits between simulated outcomes and observed data. The results confirm the importance of the riparian zone in controlling the short-term (daily) streamwater nitrogen dynamics in this catchment but not the overall flux of nitrogen from the catchment. It was also shown that as the complexity of a hydrological model increases over-parameterisation occurs, but the converse is true for a water quality model where additional process representation leads to additional acceptable model simulations. Water quality data help constrain the hydrological representation in process-based models. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry. Increased complexity was justifiable for modelling river-system hydrochemistry.