Perturbation growth at the convective scale for CSIP IOP18

The Met Office Unified Model is run for a case observed during Intensive Observation Period 18 (IOP18) of the Convective Storms Initiation Project (CSIP). The aims are to identify the physical processes that lead to perturbation growth at the convective scale in response to model-state perturbations and to determine their sensitivity to the character of the perturbations. The case is strongly upper-level forced but with detailed mesoscale/convective-scale evolution that is dependent on smaller-scale processes. Potential temperature is perturbed within the boundary layer. The effects on perturbation growth of both the amplitude and typical scalelength of the perturbations are investigated and perturbations are applied either sequentially (every 30 min throughout the simulation) or at specific times. The direct effects (within one timestep) of the perturbations are to generate propagating Lamb and acoustic waves and produce generally small changes in cloud parameters and convective instability. In exceptional cases a perturbation at a specific gridpoint leads to switching of the diagnosed boundary-layer type or discontinuous changes in convective instability, through the generation or removal of a lid. The indirect effects (during the entire simulation) are changes in the intensity and location of precipitation and in the cloud size distribution. Qualitatively different behaviour is found for strong (1K amplitude) and weak (0.01K amplitude) perturbations, with faster growth after sunrise found only for the weaker perturbations. However, the overall perturbation growth (as measured by the root-mean-square error of accumulated precipitation) reaches similar values at saturation, regardless of the perturbation characterisation.

Validating ECMWF forecasts for the occurrence of ice supersaturation using visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements over England

One of the largest uncertainties in quantifying the impact of aviation on climate concerns the formation and spreading of persistent contrails. The inclusion of a cloud scheme that allows for ice supersaturation into the integrated forecast system (IFS) of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) can be a useful tool to help reduce these uncertainties. This study evaluates the quality of the ECMWF forecasts with respect to ice super saturation in the upper troposphere by comparing them to visual observations of persistent contrails and radiosonde measurements of ice supersaturation over England. The performance of 1- to 3-day forecasts is compared including also the vertical accuracy of the supersaturation forecasts. It is found that the operational forecasts from the ECMWF are able to predict cold ice supersaturated regions very well. For the best cases Peirce skill scores of 0.7 are obtained, with hit rates at times exceeding 80% and false-alarm rates below 20%. Results are very similar for comparisons with visual observations and radiosonde measurements, the latter providing the better statistical significance.

Risk and price in the bidding process of contractors

Formal and analytical risk models prescribe how risk should be incorporated in construction bids. However, the actual process of how contractors and their clients negotiate and agree on price is complex, and not clearly articulated in the literature. Using participant observation, the entire tender process was shadowed in two leading UK construction firms. This was compared to propositions in analytical models and significant differences were found. 670 hours of work observed in both firms revealed three stages of the bidding process. Bidding activities were categorized and their extent estimated as deskwork (32%), calculations (19%), meetings (14%), documents (13%), off-days (11%), conversations (7%), correspondence (3%) and travel (1%). Risk allowances of 1-2% were priced in some bids and three tiers of risk apportionment in bids were identified. However, priced risks may sometimes be excluded from the final bidding price to enhance competitiveness. Thus, although risk apportionment affects a contractor’s pricing strategy, other complex, microeconomic factors also affect price. Instead of pricing in contingencies, risk was priced mostly through contractual rather than price mechanisms, to reflect commercial imperatives. The findings explain why some assumptions underpinning analytical models may not be sustainable in practice and why what actually happens in practice is important for those who seek to model the pricing of construction bids.

Under-investigation of older people with abnormal chest radiographs

Background: Whilst many authors have previously suggested that older people are under-represented in the investigation and management of lung cancer, few data are available as to the effect of age on the subsequent investigation and management of a patient with an abnormal chest radiograph. Methods: During a 3-month period in a university teaching hospital, all abnormal chest radiographs suggestive of a possible diagnosis of lung cancer were identified, and patients subsequently followed to determine investigation, management and date of death over a 5-year period. Results: Thirty-seven younger (less than or equal to69 years, median age 62 years) and 43 older patients ( 670 years, median age 80 years) were identified. Of the 80 patients with a possible bronchial carcinoma only 59% had a further chest radiograph performed. Bronchoscopy was performed in 34% of patients, but a biopsy of the lesion was undertaken in only 24% of patients. Sixteen of the 80 patients, irrespective of what investigations had been undertaken, were referred for an oncological or surgical opinion. During the study period ( 3 months), 24% of the patients died. At 6, 24 and 60 months, respectively, the total deaths were 40, 78 and 88%. Conclusion: Older patients compared with those aged less than 70 years were less likely to be investigated, further, were more likely to be managed differently (i.e., less aggressively) and more likely to die within each time interval. In more of the older group a presumed death certificate diagnosis of pneumonia was made. When an abnormal chest radiograph raises the possibility of an underlying bronchial carcinoma, the finding of this study suggests that an ageist attitude influences the subsequent management of some patients. Copyright (C) 2005 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Unsupervised segmentation using Gabor wavelets and statistical features in LIDAR data analysis

In this paper, we address issues in segmentation Of remotely sensed LIDAR (LIght Detection And Ranging) data. The LIDAR data, which were captured by airborne laser scanner, contain 2.5 dimensional (2.5D) terrain surface height information, e.g. houses, vegetation, flat field, river, basin, etc. Our aim in this paper is to segment ground (flat field)from non-ground (houses and high vegetation) in hilly urban areas. By projecting the 2.5D data onto a surface, we obtain a texture map as a grey-level image. Based on the image, Gabor wavelet filters are applied to generate Gabor wavelet features. These features are then grouped into various windows. Among these windows, a combination of their first and second order of statistics is used as a measure to determine the surface properties. The test results have shown that ground areas can successfully be segmented from LIDAR data. Most buildings and high vegetation can be detected. In addition, Gabor wavelet transform can partially remove hill or slope effects in the original data by tuning Gabor parameters.

MS-based clinical proteomics: biomarker discovery in men’s cancer

Importance of biomarker discovery in men’s cancer diagnosis and prognosis Each year around 10,000 men in the UK die as a result of prostate cancer (PCa) making it the 3rd most common cancer behind lung and breast cancer; worldwide more than 670,000 men are diagnosed every year with the disease [1]. Current methods of diagnosis of PCa mainly rely on the detection of elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels in serum and/or physical examination by a doctor for the detection of an abnormal prostate. PSA is a glycoprotein produced almost exclusively by the epithelial cells of the prostate gland [2]. Its role is not fully understood, although it is known that it forms part of the ejaculate and its function is to solubilise the sperm to give them the mobility to swim. Raised PSA levels in serum are thought to be due to both an increased production of PSA from the proliferated prostate cells, and a diminished architecture of affected cells, allowing an easier distribution of PSA into the wider circulatory system.

Lewis Fry Richardson's forecast factory - for real

The idea that supercomputers are an important part of making forecasts of the weather and climate is well known amongst the general population. However, the details of their use are somewhat mysterious. A concept used to illustrate many undergraduate numerical weather prediction courses is the idea of a giant 'forecast factory,' conceived by Lewis Fry Richardson in 1922. In this article, a way of using the same idea to communicate key ideas in numerical weather prediction to the general public is outlined and tested amongst children from local schools.

Alkenyl derivatives of the metals. Oxidative addition to intermediate tin(II) alkenyls; isolation, and crystal and molecular structure of n-butyltris(triphenylethenyl)tin(IV)

Reaction of tin(II) chloride with Li(CPhCPh2) at –78 °C in diethyl ether–hexane–tetrahydrofuran affords a deep red solution whose colour fades on warming, and which we believe contains the (unstable) first dialkenyltin(II) species. The latter survives long enough at low temperatures to undergo intermolecular oxidative addition, and one such adduct leads ultimately to the formation of Sn(CPhCPh2)3Bun, which has been fully characterised including a crystal and molecular structure study. The mechanism of formation of the final product has been examined and results are reported.

Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications

High-resolution ensemble simulations (Δx = 1 km) are performed with the Met Office Unified Model for the Boscastle (Cornwall, UK) flash-flooding event of 16 August 2004. Forecast uncertainties arising from imperfections in the forecast model are analysed by comparing the simulation results produced by two types of perturbation strategy. Motivated by the meteorology of the event, one type of perturbation alters relevant physics choices or parameter settings in the model's parametrization schemes. The other type of perturbation is designed to account for representativity error in the boundary-layer parametrization. It makes direct changes to the model state and provides a lower bound against which to judge the spread produced by other uncertainties. The Boscastle has genuine skill at scales of approximately 60 km and an ensemble spread which can be estimated to within ∼ 10% with only eight members. Differences between the model-state perturbation and physics modification strategies are discussed, the former being more important for triggering and the latter for subsequent cell development, including the average internal structure of convective cells. Despite such differences, the spread in rainfall evaluated at skilful scales is shown to be only weakly sensitive to the perturbation strategy. This suggests that relatively simple strategies for treating model uncertainty may be sufficient for practical, convective-scale ensemble forecasting.

Modulation of vaccine response by concomitant probiotic administration

Evidence suggests that probiotic bacteria modulate both innate and adaptive immunity in the host, and in some situations can result in reduced severity of common illnesses, such as acute rotavirus infection and respiratory infections. Responses to vaccination are increasingly being used to provide high quality information on the immunomodulatory effects of dietary components in humans. The present review focuses on the effect of probiotic administration upon vaccination response. The majority of studies investigating the impact of probiotics on responses to vaccination have been conducted in healthy adults, and at best they show modest effects of probiotics on serum or salivary IgA titres. Studies in infants and in elderly subjects are very limited, and it is too early to draw any firm conclusions regarding the potential for probiotics to act as adjuvants in vaccination. Although some studies are comparable in terms of duration of the intervention and age and characteristics of the subjects, most differ in terms of the probiotic selected. Further well designed, randomized, placebo-controlled studies are needed to fully understand the immunomodulatory properties of probiotics, whether the effects exerted are strain-dependent and age-dependent, and their clinical relevance in enhancing immune protection following vaccination.