Preparation of consistent soil data sets for modelling purposes: Secondary SOTER data for four case study areas

The common GIS-based approach to regional analyses of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes is to define geographic layers for which unique sets of driving variables are derived, which include land use, climate, and soils. These GIS layers, with their associated attribute data, can then be fed into a range of empirical and dynamic models. Common methodologies for collating and formatting regional data sets on land use, climate, and soils were adopted for the project Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks and Changes at National Scale (GEFSOC). This permitted the development of a uniform protocol for handling the various input for the dynamic GEFSOC Modelling System. Consistent soil data sets for Amazon-Brazil, the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP) of India, Jordan and Kenya, the case study areas considered in the GEFSOC project, were prepared using methodologies developed for the World Soils and Terrain Database (SOTER). The approach involved three main stages: (1) compiling new soil geographic and attribute data in SOTER format; (2) using expert estimates and common sense to fill selected gaps in the measured or primary data; (3) using a scheme of taxonomy-based pedotransfer rules and expert-rules to derive soil parameter estimates for similar soil units with missing soil analytical data. The most appropriate approach varied from country to country, depending largely on the overall accessibility and quality of the primary soil data available in the case study areas. The secondary SOTER data sets discussed here are appropriate for a wide range of environmental applications at national scale. These include agro-ecological zoning, land evaluation, modelling of soil C stocks and changes, and studies of soil vulnerability to pollution. Estimates of national-scale stocks of SOC, calculated using SOTER methods, are presented as a first example of database application. Independent estimates of SOC stocks are needed to evaluate the outcome of the GEFSOC Modelling System for current conditions of land use and climate. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Enhanced phytoextraction: In search of EDTA alternatives

Enhanced phytoextraction proposes the use of soil amendments to increase the heavy-metal content of above-ground harvestable plant tissues. This study compares the effect of synthetic aminopolycarboxylic acids [ethylenediamine tetraacetatic acid (EDTA), nitriloacetic acid (NTA), and diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (DTPA)] with a number of biodegradable, low-molecular weight, organic acids (citric acid, ascorbic acid, oxalic acid, salicylic acid, and NH4 acetate) as potential soil amendments for enhancing phytoextraction of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, and Ni) by Zea mays. The treatments in this study were applied at a dose of 2 mmol/kg(-1) 1 d before sowing. To compare possible effects between presow and postgermination treatments, a second smaller experiment was conducted in which EDTA, citric acid, and NH4 acetate were added 10 d after germination as opposed to 1 d before sowing. The soil used in this screening was a moderately contaminated topsoil derived from a dredged sediment disposal site. This site has been in an oxidized state for more than 8 years before being used in this research. The high carbonate, high organic matter, and high clay content characteristic to this type of sediment are thought to suppress heavy-metal phytoavailability. Both EDTA and DTPA resulted in increased levels of heavy metals in the above-ground biomass. However, the observed increases in uptake were not as large as reported in the literature. Neither the NTA nor organic acid treatments had any significant effect on uptake when applied prior to sowing. This was attributed to the rapid mineralization of these substances and the relatively low doses applied. The generally low extraction observed in this experiment restricts the use of phytoextraction as an effective remediation alternative under the current conditions, with regard to amendments used, applied dose (2 mmol/kg(-1) soil), application time (presow), plant species (Zea mays), and sediment (calcareous clayey soil) under study.

Internationalizing the MFA in Creative Writing

is article explores the prospects for internationalizing the Master of Fine Arts (MFA) in Creative Writing, a degree that has gained considerable popularity in the United States in the past half century but has yet to gain much of a foothold in other countries. As part of this exploration, we describe the experiences of estab- lishing the first low-residency Master of Fine Arts in Creative Writing in Asia at City University of Hong Kong, explaining the justification for setting up such a program with reference to the history of teaching creative writing and the current conditions for literary writing in English in Asia and globally. We also reflect upon the processes of planning, curriculum design, and administrative negotiation and that went into setting up the program and report on feedback from the first cohort of students. e experience of setting up this program is used as the basis for raising a number of more general issues regarding the teaching of creative writing in English in interna- tional contexts.

Larger brain size indirectly increases vulnerability to extinction in mammals

Although previous studies have addressed the question of why large brains evolved, we have limited understanding of potential beneficial or detrimental effects of enlarged brain size in the face of current threats. Using novel phylogenetic path analysis, we evaluated how brain size directly and indirectly, via its effects on life-history and ecology, influences vulnerability to extinction across 474 mammalian species. We found that larger brains, controlling for body size, indirectly increase vulnerability to extinction by extending the gestation period, increasing weaning age, and limiting litter sizes. However, we found no evidence of direct, beneficial or detrimental, effects of brain size on vulnerability to extinction, even when we explicitly considered the different types of threats that lead to vulnerability. Order-specific analyses revealed qualitatively similar patterns for Carnivora and Artiodactyla. Interestingly, for Primates, we found that larger brain size was directly (and indirectly) associated with increased vulnerability to extinction. Our results indicate that under current conditions the constraints on life-history imposed by large brains outweigh the potential benefits, undermining the resilience of the studied mammals. Contrary to the selective forces that have favoured increased brain size throughout evolutionary history, at present, larger brains have become a burden for mammals.

Vertical current flow through extensive layer clouds

The global atmospheric electrical circuit sustains a vertical current density between the ionosphere and the Earth's surface, the existence of which is well-established from measurements made in fair-weather conditions. In overcast, but non-thunderstorm, non-precipitating conditions, the current travels through the cloud present, despite cloud layers having low electrical conductivity. For extensive layer clouds, this leads to space charge at the upper and lower cloud boundaries. Using a combination of atmospheric electricity and solar radiation measurements at three UK sites, vertical current measurements have been categorised into clear, broken, and overcast cloud conditions. This approach shows that the vertical “fair weather” current is maintained despite the presence of cloud. In fully overcast conditions with thick cloud, the vertical current is reduced compared to thin cloud overcast conditions, associated with the cloud's resistance contributions. Contribution of cloud to the columnar resistance depends both on cloud thickness, and the cloud's height.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Modelling monsoons: understanding and predicting current and future behaviour

The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.

A narrow band pulsed eddy current instrument for materials testing

The principles of operation of an experimental prototype instrument known as J-SCAN are described along with the derivation of formulae for the rapid calculation of normalized impedances; the structure of the instrument; relevant probe design parameters; digital quantization errors; and approaches for the optimization of single frequency operation. An eddy current probe is used As the inductance element of a passive tuned-circuit which is repeatedly excited with short impulses. Each impulse excites an oscillation which is subject to decay dependent upon the values of the tuned-circuit components: resistance, inductance and capacitance. Changing conditions under the probe that affect the resistance and inductance of this circuit will thus be detected through changes in the transient response. These changes in transient response, oscillation frequency and rate of decay, are digitized, and then normalized values for probe resistance and inductance changes are calculated immediately in a micro processor. This approach coupled with a minimum analogue processing and maximum of digital processing has advantages compared with the conventional approaches to eddy current instruments. In particular there are: the absence of an out of balance condition and the flexibility and stability of digital data processing.

Perceptions of the risks and benefits of medicines in patients with rheumatoid arthritis and other painful musculoskeletal conditions

Objectives. To examine beliefs about medication risks and benefits in patients attending a specialist rheumatology clinic for pain-related conditions. Methods. Eighty-one patients (37 first attendees and 44 existing clinic patients) completed a written questionnaire which asked about current treatments, perceived effectiveness, main risks and benefits, and compliance. Results. Existing clinic patients perceived medications to be more effective and more risky than did the new patients, although both groups rated risks to be moderately low. The main perceived risks were adverse side-effects, although patients reported only moderately low levels of experiencing such effects. Conclusions. In contrast to some other studies, many of our patients were aware of medication risks and were prepared to accept them provided benefits were seen to be high. Existing clinic patients were more aware of risks and benefits, and reported higher compliance levels than new patients, possibly as a result of the hospital education programme. Future studies should evaluate the effects of the programme more systematically.

A behavioral comparison of male and female adults with high functioning autism spectrum conditions

Autism spectrum conditions (ASC) affect more males than females in the general population. However, within ASC it is unclear if there are phenotypic sex differences. Testing for similarities and differences between the sexes is important not only for clinical assessment but also has implications for theories of typical sex differences and of autism. Using cognitive and behavioral measures, we investigated similarities and differences between the sexes in age- and IQ-matched adults with ASC (high-functioning autism or Asperger syndrome). Of the 83 (45 males and 38 females) participants, 62 (33 males and 29 females) met Autism Diagnostic Interview-Revised (ADI-R) cut-off criteria for autism in childhood and were included in all subsequent analyses. The severity of childhood core autism symptoms did not differ between the sexes. Males and females also did not differ in self-reported empathy, systemizing, anxiety, depression, and obsessive-compulsive traits/symptoms or mentalizing performance. However, adult females with ASC showed more lifetime sensory symptoms (p = 0.036), fewer current socio-communication difficulties (p = 0.001), and more self-reported autistic traits (p = 0.012) than males. In addition, females with ASC who also had developmental language delay had lower current performance IQ than those without developmental language delay (p<0.001), a pattern not seen in males. The absence of typical sex differences in empathizing-systemizing profiles within the autism spectrum confirms a prediction from the extreme male brain theory. Behavioral sex differences within ASC may also reflect different developmental mechanisms between males and females with ASC. We discuss the importance of the superficially better socio-communication ability in adult females with ASC in terms of why females with ASC may more often go under-recognized, and receive their diagnosis later, than males.

Why are autism spectrum conditions more prevalent in males?

Autism Spectrum Conditions (ASC) are much more common in males, a bias that may offer clues to the etiology of this condition. Although the cause of this bias remains a mystery, we argue that it occurs because ASC is an extreme manifestation of the male brain. The extreme male brain (EMB) theory, first proposed in 1997, is an extension of the Empathizing-Systemizing (E-S) theory of typical sex differences that proposes that females on average have a stronger drive to empathize while males on average have a stronger drive to systemize. In this first major update since 2005, we describe some of the evidence relating to the EMB theory of ASC and consider how typical sex differences in brain structure may be relevant to ASC. One possible biological mechanism to account for the male bias is the effect of fetal testosterone (fT). We also consider alternative biological theories, the X and Y chromosome theories, and the reduced autosomal penetrance theory. None of these theories has yet been fully confirmed or refuted, though the weight of evidence in favor of the fT theory is growing from converging sources (longitudinal amniocentesis studies from pregnancy to age 10 years old, current hormone studies, and genetic association studies of SNPs in the sex steroid pathways). Ultimately, as these theories are not mutually exclusive and ASC is multi-factorial, they may help explain the male prevalence of ASC.

The distribution of the ring current: Cluster observations

Extending previous studies, a full-circle investigation of the ring current has been made using Cluster 4-spacecraft observations near perigee, at times when the Cluster array had relatively small separations and nearly regular tetrahedral configurations, and when the Dst index was greater than −30 nT (non-storm conditions). These observations result in direct estimations of the near equatorial current density at all magnetic local times (MLT) for the first time and with sufficient accuracy, for the following observations. The results confirm that the ring current flows westward and show that the in situ average measured current density (sampled in the radial range accessed by Cluster 4–4.5RE) is asymmetric in MLT, ranging from 9 to 27 nAm−2. The direction of current is shown to be very well ordered for the whole range of MLT. Both of these results are in line with previous studies on partial ring extent. The magnitude of the current density, however, reveals a distinct asymmetry: growing from 10 to 27 nAm−2 as azimuth reduces from about 12:00MLT to 03:00 and falling from 20 to 10 nAm−2 less steadily as azimuth reduces from 24:00 to 12:00MLT. This result has not been reported before and we suggest it could reflect a number of effects. Firstly, we argue it is consistent with the operation of region-2 field aligned-currents (FACs), which are expected to flow upward into the ring current around 09:00MLT and downward out of the ring current around 14:00MLT. Secondly, we note that it is also consistent with a possible asymmetry in the radial distribution profile of current density (resulting in higher peak at 4– 4.5RE). We note that part of the enhanced current could reflect an increase in the mean AE activity (during the periods in which Cluster samples those MLT).

The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the sun into Maunder Minimum conditions

The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R^2_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential phi for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and phi, R^2_L (t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t = 4 and 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number R_Z is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean R_G are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.

Photosynthetic activity and early growth of four Cacao genotypes as influenced by different shade regimes under West African dry and wet season conditions

The physiological performance of four cacao clones was examined under three artificial shade regimes over the course of a year in Ghana. Plants under light shade had significantly higher photosynthetic rates in the rainy seasons whereas in the dry season there was a trend of higher photosynthetic rates under heavy shade. The results imply that during the wet seasons light was the main limiting factor to photosynthesis whereas in the dry season vapour pressure deficit was the major factor limiting photosynthesis through stomatal regulation. Leaf area was generally lower under heavier shade but the difference between shade treatments varied between clones. Such differences in leaf area allocation appeared to underlie genotypic differences in final biomass production in response to shade. The results suggest that shade for young cacao should be provided based on the current ambient environment and genotype.