Bayesian sample size for exploratory clinical trials incorporating historical data

This paper presents a simple Bayesian approach to sample size determination in clinical trials. It is required that the trial should be large enough to ensure that the data collected will provide convincing evidence either that an experimental treatment is better than a control or that it fails to improve upon control by some clinically relevant difference. The method resembles standard frequentist formulations of the problem, and indeed in certain circumstances involving 'non-informative' prior information it leads to identical answers. In particular, unlike many Bayesian approaches to sample size determination, use is made of an alternative hypothesis that an experimental treatment is better than a control treatment by some specified magnitude. The approach is introduced in the context of testing whether a single stream of binary observations are consistent with a given success rate p(0). Next the case of comparing two independent streams of normally distributed responses is considered, first under the assumption that their common variance is known and then for unknown variance. Finally, the more general situation in which a large sample is to be collected and analysed according to the asymptotic properties of the score statistic is explored. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Modelling oil absorption during post-frying cooling - II: solution of the mathematical model, model testing and simulations

The mathematical models that describe the immersion-frying period and the post-frying cooling period of an infinite slab or an infinite cylinder were solved and tested. Results were successfully compared with those found in the literature or obtained experimentally, and were discussed in terms of the hypotheses and simplifications made. The models were used as the basis of a sensitivity analysis. Simulations showed that a decrease in slab thickness and core heat capacity resulted in faster crust development. On the other hand, an increase in oil temperature and boiling heat transfer coefficient between the oil and the surface of the food accelerated crust formation. The model for oil absorption during cooling was analysed using the tested post-frying cooling equation to determine the moment in which a positive pressure driving force, allowing oil suction within the pore, originated. It was found that as crust layer thickness, pore radius and ambient temperature decreased so did the time needed to start the absorption. On the other hand, as the effective convective heat transfer coefficient between the air and the surface of the slab increased the required cooling time decreased. In addition, it was found that the time needed to allow oil absorption during cooling was extremely sensitive to pore radius, indicating the importance of an accurate pore size determination in future studies.

Retrieval of effective ice crystal size in the infrared: sensitivity study and global measurements from TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

The difference between cirrus emissivities at 8 and 11 μm is sensitive to the mean effective ice crystal size of the cirrus cloud, De. By using single scattering properties of ice crystals shaped as planar polycrystals, diameters of up to about 70 μm can be retrieved, instead of up to 45 μm assuming spheres or hexagonal columns. The method described in this article is used for a global determination of mean effective ice crystal sizes of cirrus clouds from TOVS satellite observations. A sensitivity study of the De retrieval to uncertainties in hypotheses on ice crystal shape, size distributions, and temperature profiles, as well as in vertical and horizontal cloud heterogeneities shows that uncertainties can be as large as 30%. However, the TOVS data set is one of few data sets which provides global and long-term coverage. Having analyzed the years 1987–1991, it was found that measured effective ice crystal diameters De are stable from year to year. For 1990 a global median De of 53.5 μm was determined. Averages distinguishing ocean/land, season, and latitude lie between 23 μm in winter over Northern Hemisphere midlatitude land and 64 μm in the tropics. In general, larger Des are found in regions with higher atmospheric water vapor and for cirrus with a smaller effective emissivity.

Determination of mitochondrial genetic diversity in mammals

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is one of the most Popular population genetic markers. Its relevance as an indicator Of Population size and history has recently been questioned by several large-scale studies in animals reporting evidence for recurrent adaptive evolution, at least in invertebrates. Here we focus on mammals, a more restricted taxonomic group for which the issue of mtDNA near neutrality is crucial. By analyzing the distribution of mtDNA diversity across species and relating 4 to allozyme diversity, life-history traits, and taxonomy, we show that (i) mtDNA in mammals (toes not reject the nearly neutral model; (ii) mtDNA diversity, however, is unrelated to any of the 14 life-history and ecological variables that we analyzed, including body mass, geographic range, and The World Conservation Union (IUCN) categorization; (iii) mtDNA diversity is highly variable between mammalian orders and families; (iv) this taxonomic effect is most likely explained by variations of mutation rate between lineages. These results are indicative of a strong stochasticity of effective population size in mammalian species. They Suggest that, even in the absence of selection, mtDNA genetic diversity is essentially unpredictable, knowing species biology, and probably uncorrelated to species abundance.

New magnetic nano-absorbent for the determination of n-octanol/water partition coefficients

A novel and generic miniaturization methodology for the determination of partition coefficient values of organic compounds in noctanol/water by using magnetic nanoparticles is, for the first time, described. We have successfully designed, synthesised and characterised new colloidal stable porous silica-encapsulated magnetic nanoparticles of controlled dimensions. These nanoparticles absorbing a tiny amount of n-octanol in their porous silica over-layer are homogeneously dispersed into a bulk aqueous phase (pH 7.40) containing an organic compound prior to magnetic separation. The small size of the particles and the efficient mixing allow a rapid establishment of the partition equilibrium of the organic compound between the solid supported n-octanol nano-droplets and the bulk aqueous phase. UV-vis spectrophotometry is then applied as a quantitative method to determine the concentration of the organic compound in the aqueous phase both before and after partitioning (after magnetic separation). log D values of organic compounds of pharmaceutical interest (0.65-3.50), determined by this novel methodology, were found to be in excellent agreement with the values measured by the shake-flask method in two independent laboratories, which are also consistent with the literature data. It was also found that this new technique gives a number of advantages such as providing an accurate measurement of log D value, a much shorter experimental time and a smaller sample size required. With this approach, the formation of a problematic emulsion, commonly encountered in shake-flask experiments, is eliminated. It is envisaged that this method could be applicable to the high throughput log D screening of drug candidates. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A lower bound on the size of k-neighborhood in generalized cubes

The determination of the minimum size of a k-neighborhood (i.e., a neighborhood of a set of k nodes) in a given graph is essential in the analysis of diagnosability and fault tolerance of multicomputer systems. The generalized cubes include the hypercube and most hypercube variants as special cases. In this paper, we present a lower bound on the size of a k-neighborhood in n-dimensional generalized cubes, where 2n + 1 <= k <= 3n - 2. This lower bound is tight in that it is met by the n-dimensional hypercube. Our result is an extension of two previously known results. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Oxidation of polycrystalline Ni studied by spectromicroscopy: Phase separation in the early stages of crystallite growth

Low-energy and photoemission electron microscopy enables the determination of facet planes of polycrystalline surfaces and the study of their chemical composition at the sub-m scale. Using these techniques the early oxidation stages of nickel were studied. After exposing the surface to 20 L of oxygen at 373 K a uniform layer of chemisorbed oxygen was found on all facets. After oxygen exposure at 473–673 K, small NiO crystallites are formed on all facets but not in the vicinity of all grain boundaries. The crystallites are separated by areas of bare Ni without significant oxygen coverage.

Comparative biology of mammalian telomeres: hypotheses on ancestral states and the roles of telomeres in longevity determination

Progressive telomere shortening from cell division (replicative aging) provides a barrier for human tumor progression. This program is not conserved in laboratory mice, which have longer telomeres and constitutive telomerase. Wild species that do ⁄ do not use replicative aging have been reported, but the evolution of different phenotypes and a conceptual framework for understanding their uses of telomeres is lacking. We examined telomeres ⁄ telomerase in cultured cells from > 60 mammalian species to place different uses of telomeres in a broad mammalian context. Phylogeny-based statistical analysis reconstructed ancestral states. Our analysis suggested that the ancestral mammalian phenotype included short telomeres (< 20 kb, as we now see in humans) and repressed telomerase. We argue that the repressed telomerase was a response to a higher mutation load brought on by the evolution of homeothermy. With telomerase repressed, we then see the evolution of replicative aging. Telomere length inversely correlated with lifespan, while telomerase expression co-evolved with body size. Multiple independent times smaller, shorter-lived species changed to having longer telomeres and expressing telomerase. Trade-offs involving reducing the energetic ⁄ cellular costs of specific oxidative protection mechanisms (needed to protect < 20 kb telomeres in the absence oftelomerase) could explain this abandonment of replicative aging. These observations provide a conceptual framework for understanding different uses of telomeres in mammals, support a role for human-like telomeres in allowing longer lifespans to evolve, demonstrate the need to include telomere length in the analysis of comparative studies of oxidative protection in the biology of aging, and identify which mammals can be used as appropriate model organisms for the study of the role of telomeres in human cancer and aging. Key words: evolution of telomeres; immortalization; telomerase; replicative aging; senescence.

Towards a unified approach for the determination of the bioaccessibility of organic pollutants

Bioaccessibility studies have been widely used as a research tool to determine the potential human exposure to ingested contaminants. More recently they have been practically applied for soil borne toxic elements. This paper reviews the application of bioaccessibility tests across a range of organic pollutants and contaminated matrices. Important factors are reported to be: the physiological relevance of the test, the components in the gut media, the size fraction chosen for the test and whether it contains a sorptive sink. The bioaccessibility is also a function of the composition of the matrix (e.g. organic carbon content of soils) and the physico-chemical characteristics of the pollutant under test. Despite the widespread use of these tests, there are a large number of formats used and very few validation studies with animal models. We propose a unified format for a bioaccessibility test for organic pollutants. The robustness of this test should first be confirmed through inter laboratory comparison, then tested in-vivo.