Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Potassium leaching in undisturbed soil cores following surface applications of gypsum

Displacement studies on leaching of potassium (K+) were conducted under unsaturated steady state flow conditions in nine undisturbed soil columns (15.5 cm in diameter and 25 cm long). Pulses of K+ applied to columns of undisturbed soil were leached with distilled water or calcium chloride (CaCl2) at a rate of 18 mm h(-1). The movement of K+ in gypsum treated soil leached with distilled water was at a similar rate to that of the untreated soil leached with 15 mM CaCl2. The Ca2+ concentrations in the leachates were about 15 mM, the expected values for the dissolution of the gypsum. When applied K+ was displaced with the distilled water, K+ was retained in the top 10-12.5 cm depth of soil. In the undisturbed soil cores there is possibility of preferential flow and lack of K+ sorption. The application of gypsum and CaCl2 in the reclamation of sodic soils would be expected to leach K+ from soils. It can also be concluded that the use of sources of water for irrigation which have a high Ca2+ concentration can also lead to leaching of K+ from soil. Average effluent concentration of K+ during leaching period was 30.2 and 28.6 mg l(-1) for the gypsum and CaCl2 treated soils, respectively. These concentrations are greater than the recommended guideline of the World Health Organisation (12 mg K+ l(-1)).

Exploring the applications of a pulsating jet hydrodynamic modulated voltammetric (HMV) system - electrochemistry of nanostructured Pt electrodes and trace analysis

The electrochemistry of nanostructured electrodes is investigated using hydrodynamic modulated voltammetry (HMV). Here a liquid crystal templating process is used to produce a platinum modified electrode with a relatively high surface area (Roughness factor, Rf = 42.4). The electroreduction of molecular oxygen at a nanostructured platinum surface is used to demonstrate the ability of HMV to discriminate between Faradaic and non-Faradaic electrode reactions. The HMV approach shows that the reduction of molecular oxygen shows considerable hysteresis correlating with the formation and stripping of oxide species at the platinum surface. Without the HMV analysis it is difficult to discern the same detail under the conditions employed. In addition the detection limit of the apparatus is explored and shown, under ideal conditions, to be of the order of 45 nmol dm(-3) employing [Fe(CN)(6)](4-) as a test species. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Case studies to demonstrate the range of applications of the Southampton Hand Assessment Procedure

The Southampton Hand Assessment Procedure (SHAP) was devised to assess quantitatively the functional range of injured and healthy adult hands. It was designed to be a practical tool for use in a busy clinical setting; thus, it was made simple to use and easy to interpret. This paper describes four examples of its use: before and after a surgical procedure, to observe the impact of an injury, use with prostheses, and during recovery following a fracture. The cases show that the SHAP is capable of monitoring progress and recovery, identifying functional abilities in prosthetic hands and comparing the capabilities of different groups of injuries.

Co-fuelling of peat with meat and bone meal in a pilot scale bubbling bed reactor

Co-combustion performance trials of Meat and Bone Meal (MBM) and peat were conducted using a bubbling fluidized bed (BFB) reactor. In the combustion performance trials the effects of the co-combustion of MBM and peat on flue gas emissions, bed fluidization, ash agglomeration tendency in the bed and the composition and quality of the ash were studied. MBM was mixed with peat at 6 levels between 15% and 100%. Emissions were predominantly below regulatory limits. CO concentrations in the flue gas only exceeded the 100 mg/m3 limit upon combustion of pure MBM. SO2 emissions were found to be over the limit of 50 mg/m3, while in all trials NOx emissions were below the limit of 300 mg/m3. The HCl content of the flue gases was found to vary near the limit of 30 mg/m3. VOCs however were within their limits. The problem of bed agglomeration was avoided when the bed temperature was about 850 °C and only 20% MBM was co-combusted. This study indicates that a pilot scale BFB reactor can, under optimum conditions, be operated within emission limits when MBM is used as a co-fuel with peat. This can provide a basis for further scale-up development work in industrial scale BFB applications

Multiple hydrogen bonds induce formation of nanoparticles with internal microemulsion structure by an amphiphilic copolymer

A particulate microemulsion is generated in a simple two-component system comprising an amphiphilic copolymer (Pluronic P123) in mixtures with tannic acid. This is correlated to complexation between the poly(ethylene oxide) in the Pluronic copolymer and the multiple hydrogen bonding units in tannic acid which leads to the breakup of the ordered structure formed in gels of Pluronic copolymers, and the formation of dispersed nanospheres containing a bicontinuous internal structure. These novel nanoparticles termed ‘‘emulsomes’’ are self-stabilized by a coating layer of Pluronic copolymer. The microemulsion exhibits a pearlescent appearance due to selective light scattering from the emulsion droplets. This simple formulation based on a commercial copolymer and a biofunctional and biodegradable additive is expected to find applications in the fast moving consumer goods sector.

Tobit estiamtion with unknown point of censoring with an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Data augmentation is a powerful technique for estimating models with latent or missing data, but applications in agricultural economics have thus far been few. This paper showcases the technique in an application to data on milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. There, a key impediment to economic development is an apparently low rate of market participation. Consequently, economic interest centers on the “locations” of nonparticipants in relation to the market and their “reservation values” across covariates. These quantities are of policy interest because they provide measures of the additional inputs necessary in order for nonparticipants to enter the market. One quantity of primary interest is the minimum amount of surplus milk (the “minimum efficient scale of operations”) that the household must acquire before market participation becomes feasible. We estimate this quantity through routine application of data augmentation and Gibbs sampling applied to a random-censored Tobit regression. Incorporating random censoring affects markedly the marketable-surplus requirements of the household, but only slightly the covariates requirements estimates and, generally, leads to more plausible policy estimates than the estimates obtained from the zero-censored formulation

Biomedical applications of hydrogels: a review of patents and commercial products

Hydrogels have become very popular due to their unique properties such as high water content, softness, flexibility and biocompatibility. Natural and synthetic hydrophilic polymers can be physically or chemically cross-linked in order to produce hydrogels. Their resemblance to living tissue opens up many opportunities for applications in biomedical areas. Currently, hydrogels are used for manufacturing contact lenses, hygiene products, tissue engineering scaffolds, drug delivery systems and wound dressings. This review provides an analysis of their main characteristics and biomedical applications. From Wichterle’s pioneering work to the most recent hydrogel-based inventions and products on the market, it provides the reader with a detailed introduction to the topic and perspective on further potential developments.

Translational research and therapeutic applications of neural crest-derived stem cells in regenerative periodontology

Regeneration of periodontal tissues aims to utilize tissue engineering techniques to restore lost periodontal tissues including the cementum, periodontal ligament and alveolar bone. Regenerative dentistry and its special field regenerative periodontology represent relatively new and emerging branches of translational stem cell biology and regenerative medicine focusing on replacing and regenerating dental tissues to restore or re-establish their normal function lost during degenerative diseases or acute lesions. The regeneration itself can be achieved through transplantation of autologous or allogenic stem cells, or by improving the tissue self-repair mechanisms (e.g. by application of growth factors). In addition, a combination of stem cells or stem cell-containing tissue with bone implants can be used to improve tissue integration and the clinical outcome. As the oral cavity represents a complex system consisting of teeth, bone, soft tissues and sensory nerves, regenerative periodontology relies on the use of stem cells with relatively high developmental potential. Notably, the potential use of pluripotent stem cell types such as human embryonic stem cells or induced pluripotent stem cells is still aggravated by ethical and practical problems. Thus, other cellular sources such as those readily available in the postnatal craniofacial area and particularly in oral structures offer a much better and realistic alternative as cellular regenerative sources. In this review, we summarize current knowledge on the oral neural crest-derived stem cell populations (oNCSCs) and discuss their potential in regenerative periodontology.

Applications of electrified dust and dust devil electrodynamics to Martian atmospheric electricity

Atmospheric transport and suspension of dust frequently brings electrification, which may be substantial. Electric fields of 10 kVm-1 to 100 kVm-1 have been observed at the surface beneath suspended dust in the terrestrial atmosphere, and some electrification has been observed to persist in dust at levels to 5 km, as well as in volcanic plumes. The interaction between individual particles which causes the electrification is incompletely understood, and multiple processes are thought to be acting. A variation in particle charge with particle size, and the effect of gravitational separation explains to, some extent, the charge structures observed in terrestrial dust storms. More extensive flow-based modelling demonstrates that bulk electric fields in excess of 10 kV m-1 can be obtained rapidly (in less than 10 s) from rotating dust systems (dust devils) and that terrestrial breakdown fields can be obtained. Modelled profiles of electrical conductivity in the Martian atmosphere suggest the possibility of dust electrification, and dust devils have been suggested as a mechanism of charge separation able to maintain current flow between one region of the atmosphere and another, through a global circuit. Fundamental new understanding of Martian atmospheric electricity will result from the ExoMars mission, which carries the DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk Assessment, and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface)-MicroARES (Atmospheric Radiation and Electricity Sensor) instrumentation to Mars in 2016 for the first in situ measurements.