Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: the MarQUEST experience

The MarQUEST (Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Modelling Initiative in QUEST) project was established to develop improved descriptions of marine biogeochemistry, suited for the next generation of Earth system models. We review progress in these areas providing insight on the advances that have been made as well as identifying remaining key outstanding gaps for the development of the marine component of next generation Earth system models. The following issues are discussed and where appropriate results are presented; the choice of model structure, scaling processes from physiology to functional types, the ecosystem model sensitivity to changes in the physical environment, the role of the coastal ocean and new methods for the evaluation and comparison of ecosystem and biogeochemistry models. We make recommendations as to where future investment in marine ecosystem modelling should be focused, highlighting a generic software framework for model development, improved hydrodynamic models, and better parameterisation of new and existing models, reanalysis tools and ensemble simulations. The final challenge is to ensure that experimental/observational scientists are stakeholders in the models and vice versa.

Singular vector ensemble forecasting systems and the prediction of flow dependent uncertainty

The ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts are generated by perturbing the initial conditions of the forecast using a subset of the singular vectors of the linearised propagator. Previous results show that when creating probabilistic forecasts from this ensemble better forecasts are obtained if the mean of the spread and the variability of the spread are calibrated separately. We show results from a simple linear model that suggest that this may be a generic property for all singular vector based ensemble forecasting systems based on only a subset of the full set of singular vectors.

Virtual reality Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) exposure therapy results with active duty Iraq war combatants

Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) is reported to be caused by traumatic events that are outside the range of usual human experience including (but not limited to) military combat, violent personal assault, being kidnapped or taken hostage and terrorist attacks. Initial data suggests that at least 1 out of 6 Iraq War veterans are exhibiting symptoms of depression, anxiety and PTSD. Virtual Reality (VR) delivered exposure therapy for PTSD has been used with reports of positive outcomes. The aim of the current paper is to present the rationale and brief description of a Virtual Iraq PTSD VR therapy application and present initial findings from its use with PTSD patients. Thus far, Virtual Iraq consists of a series of customizable virtual scenarios designed to represent relevant Middle Eastern VR contexts for exposure therapy, including a city and desert road convoy environment. User-centered design feedback needed to iteratively evolve the system was gathered from returning Iraq War veterans in the USA and from a system deployed in Iraq and tested by an Army Combat Stress Control Team. Results from an open clinical trial at San Diego Naval Medical Center of the first 18 treatment completers indicate that 14 no longer meet PTSD diagnostic criteria at post-treatment, with only one not maintaining treatment gains at 3 month follow-up. Clinical tests are also currently underway at Ft. Lewis, Emory University, Weill Cornell Medical College, Walter Reed Army Medical Center and 10 other sites. Other sites are preparing to use the application for a variety of PTSD and VR research purposes.