The risks of investing in the real estate markets of the asian region

The Asian region has become a focus of attention for investors in recent years. Due to the strong economic performance of the region, the higher expected returns in the area compared with Europe and the USA and the additional diversification benefits investment in the region would offer. Nonetheless many investors have doubts about the prudence of investing in such areas. In particular it may be felt that the expected returns offered in the countries of the Asian region are not sufficient to compensate investors for the increased risks of investing in such markets. These risks can be categorised into under four headings: investment risk, currency risk, political risk, and institutional risk. This paper analyses each of these risks in turn to see if they are sufficiently large to deter real estate investment in the region in general or in a particular country.

How does investing in cheap labour countries affect performance at home? Firm-level evidence from France and Italy

Transferring low tech manufacturing jobs to cheap labour countries is often seen by part of the general public and policy makers as a step into the de-industrialization of the European economies. However, recent contributions have shown that the effects on home economies are rarely negative. Our paper contributes to this literature by examining how outward investments to developing and less developed countries (LDCs) affect home activities of French and Italian firms that turn multinational in the period analysed. The effects of these investments are also compared to the effects of investments to developed economies (DCs). The analysis is carried out by using propensity score matching. We find no evidence of a negative effect of outward investments to LDCs. In Italy they have a positive long term effect on value added and employment. For France we find a positive effect on the size of domestic output and employment.

Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

The allometry of ornaments and weapons

Exaggerated male traits that have evolved under sexual selection include ornaments to attract mates and weapons to deter rivals. Data from studies of many such traits in diverse kinds of organisms show that they almost universally exhibit positive allometries. Both ornaments and weapons increase disproportionately with overall body size, resulting in scaling exponents within species that are consistently > 1.0 and usually in the range 1.5-2.5. We show how scaling exponents reflect the relative fitness advantages of ornaments vs. somatic growth by using a simple mathematical model of resource allocation during ontogeny. Because the scaling exponents are similar for the different taxonomic groups, it follows that the fitness advantages of investing in ornaments also are similar. The model also shows how selection for ornaments influences body size at first reproduction and explains why interspecific allometries have consistently lower exponents than intraspecific ones.

The relative fitness of Drosophila melanogaster (Diptera, Drosophilidae) that have successfully defended themselves against the parasitoid Asobara tabida (Hymenoptera, Braconidae)

Drosophila melanogaster larvae defend themselves against parasitoid attack via the process of encapsulation. However, flies that successfully defend them selves have reduced fitness as adults. Adults which carry an encapsulated parasitoid egg are smaller and females produce significantly fewer eggs than controls. Capsule-bearing males allowed repeated copulations with females do not show a reduction in their number of offspring, but those allowed to copulate only once did. No differences were found in time to first oviposition in females, or in time to first copulation in males. We interpret the results as arising from a trade-off between investing resources in factors promoting fecundity and mating success, and in defence against parasitism. The outcome of this investment decision influences the strength of selection for defence against parasitism.

Observed adaptation to climate change: UK evidence of transition to a well-adapting society

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping) to building adaptive capacity, implementing actions and creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These actions within government stimulate a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (or in the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The water supply and flood defence sectors, requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure such as reservoirs and coastal defences, have invested more heavily in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Economic sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that while the government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost, it may also have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

The long-term price-earnings ratio

price-earnings ratio;value premium;arbitrage trading rule;UK stock returns;contrarian investment Abstract:  The price-earnings effect has been thoroughly documented and is the subject of numerous academic studies. However, in existing research it has almost exclusively been calculated on the basis of the previous year's earnings. We show that the power of the effect has until now been seriously underestimated due to taking too short-term a view of earnings. Looking at all UK companies since 1975, using the traditional P/E ratio we find the difference in average annual returns between the value and glamour deciles to be 6%. This is similar to other authors' findings. We are able to almost double the value premium by calculating the P/E ratio using earnings averaged over the previous eight years.

Gauging the investment potential of international real estate markets

Investing in real estate markets overseas means venturing into the unknown, where you meet unfamiliar political and economic environments, unstable currencies, strange cultures and languages, and so although the advantages of international diversification might appear attractive, the risks of international investment must not be overlooked. However, capital markets are becoming global markets, and commercial real estate markets are no exception, accordingly despite the difficulties posed by venturing overseas no investor can overlook the potential international investment holds out. Thus, what strategies are appropriate for capitalising on this potential? Three issues must be considered: (1) the potential of the countries real estate market in general; (2) the potential of the individual market sectors; and (3) the investment process itself. Although each step in foreign real estate investment is critical, the initial assessment of opportunities is especially important. Various methods can be used to achieve this but a formal and systematic analysis of aggregate market potential should prove particularly fruitful. The work reported here, therefore, develops and illustrates such a methodology for the over 50 international real estate markets.

Investigating familiar interfaces to help older adults learn computer applications more easily

Many older adults wish to gain competence in using a computer, but many application interfaces are perceived as complex and difficult to use, deterring potential users from investing the time to learn them. Hence, this study looks at the potential of ‘familiar’ interface design which builds upon users’ knowledge of real world interactions, and applies existing skills to a new domain. Tools are provided in the form of familiar visual objects, and manipulated like real-world counterparts, rather than with buttons, icons and menus found in classic WIMP interfaces. This paper describes the formative evaluation of computer interactions that are based upon familiar real world tasks, which supports multitouch interaction, involves few buttons and icons, no menus, no right-clicks or double-clicks and no dialogs. Using an example of an email client to test the principles of using “familiarity”, the initial feedback was very encouraging, with 3 of the 4 participants being able to undertake some of the basic email tasks with no prior training and little or no help. The feedback has informed a number of refinements of the design principles, such as providing clearer affordance for visual objects. A full study is currently underway.